posted on Jun, 24 2013 @ 10:15 AM
It's a bold and often heard statement, and in my case completely based on what I would call common sense.
So why is 7-12 years so damn speciel this time?
Well, we are slowly creeping towards the point where the effects of the irrational post world war 2 baby boom will take its toll on the entire world
While America was fast at initiating the birth rate increase Europe took a little longer to follow after, so if the first "de-boom" wont finish off
the economy completely then the second one will.
People who were born during the first baby boom in the late 40s early 50s are nearing the pensioning age. But that's supposed to be a great thing
isn't it? Finally you can enjoy the spoils of a hard life… all that hard work for your nation, your family, your home.
The thing is, while we were so busy expanding and spending, we failed to acknowledge a very very simple fact:
- You cannot maintain growth and welfare while experiencing a decling birth rate
…..and not only are we experiencing a declining birthrate. We HAVE BEEN for the last 60 years, with very slight increases here and there.
The ramifications of the ill advised baby boom in the 50s and 60s will be dire. This cannot be stressed enough.
Do some simple math;
Being born in 1950 means you would hit the working age / tax contributing life around 1971-1975. We are talking about THE LARGEST working force in the
history of man hitting the streets looking for a job at more or less the same time ( give or take a few years ).
Of course society at first wasn't ready for this massive increase in labor ready hands and this reflected in the massive unemployment rates of the
late 70s early 80s. But then, things turned around.
As the last part of the largest working force in time grew up, ready to contribute and consume, we suddenly saw a magical economic growth.
People don't really think about money as something that is totally dependent on people, but they are.
It's not like some economic genius invented the wheel and then everyone was saved.
No…. there were simply suddenly a LOT more people out there ready to work and consume.
Being a photographer I often here stories from the old timers about the golden 80s where you could charge outrageous fees while doing massive shoots
with huge staffs and the obligatory party to end it.
It's a testament to not only how "good" things were, but also how completely blind they all were… I'm sorry, but you old timers born from 50-70
So here we are, close to a lifetime later and the largest working force is about to turn to retirment. Sitting back, kicking up their feet on welfare
- This also means they no longer will be contributing to society.
- This also means they will completely naturally start getting ill.
- This also means they will contemplate selling their houses to retire someplace nice without too much maintenance and responsibility.
Here's what will happen in 7-12 years, and the "best" part…. you can't do a damn thing about it, so instead of discussing wether or not this is
true and why it happened (like all the scientist idiots spent so long debating wether Earth was heating or cooling for so long instead of acting), I
want you to sit down, start planning your life, and if you were born between 50-70; start taking responsibility again…….. Cause most likely, the
latter of you are the ones who are going to lose the most.
List of to me obvious things that will happen:
1. Massive decrease in national income based on the high amounts of people retiring.
2. That will be followed by a massive decrease in consumption by the general population. Luxury goods will suffer the most.
3. Companies will be forced to slow down on growth and maybe even cut back on their workforce to meet the demands of the society destroying concept of
4. When you retire, at some point you simply get too weak and too old to maintain the house or property you own. You want to sell… get out of the
race. But unfortunately since you are amongst the biggest workforce ever to have existed, and since you decided to sell during the lowest birth rate
in over a 100 years, it will be a buyers market.
Property values will plummet to the ground, simply because there will not be enough buyers to invest in the vast number of available houses.
5. We all know what happens when housing crashes.
Why can't you do anything about it?
Simple answer: Birth rate……… you cannot invent a bigger generation of people than there really is.
You cannot make people consume more because they wont be earning enough and will be paying too many taxes to sustain welfare of those on
So what's my point? Well… like I said. Stop spending…. get out of debt and get out now. Because in 7-12 years, I consider this a 99% chance that
our economy will be completely different. In a bad way compared to now….
Best of luck to you.