Doomsday Poll: 87% Risk of Stock Crash by Year-End Worse Plunge than 2008

reply to post by gortex


Sounds like BS. The money supply has been expanded and liquidity has been restored.

I don't see the stock market declining below 9,000 any time in the future.

And I doubt even more that GDP will contract to recession levels within Obamas' term. Not even close.

reply to post by gortex


As for Fox business I would take what they say with a grain of salt.

I do expect the market will correct sharply before Obama leaves office, but I am not expecting the S&P 500 to decline below 11,000. But if it gets anywhere near those levels people will be freaking out and preaching about how America is doomed despite the economy being healthier than it was in 2007.

Originally posted by On7a7higher7plane
reply to post by gortex

 

Sounds like BS. The money supply has been expanded and liquidity has been restored.

I don't see the stock market declining below 9,000 any time in the future.

And I doubt even more that GDP will contract to recession levels within Obamas' term. Not even close.

Then suddenly it tanks tomorrow boy would that be a surprise

buying on margin is probably one of the worst things they
could ever allow in the stock market, it was in the first
collapse and still continues to be the most ludicrous idea
ive ever heard, in the name of more profit financial security
is a thing of the past, no one wants slow steady safe
growth, they all want to be billionaires and pretend that
fast and easy is just how its suppose to work.

Truth is they are all so addicted to their drug of choice
they would never admit they have a problem, maybe that's
what we need, to classify this type of thing as an addiction
and get them all some help.

reply to post by gortex


So what real factors are about to cause a crash? None. Expect more stagnation and repeatedly hitting a growth ceiling that is capped by energy price spiking (whenever the economy starts going, the curve jumps on energy prices causing a retreat to stagnation).

Don't get me wrong. It will happen again. In fact the problem from the 2008 crash was never addressed (the releveraging of loans in repeated fashion to make money out of thin air). Its just not going to happen now because the pressure isn't where it was in 2008.

Of course the first market we should take note of now is the student loan debt market. It is much closer to collapse (for the same reasons) than is the housing market. The writing on the wall is the doubling of interest rates on student loans which the congress considering (to let happen). My hypothesis is they are being asked to do this because that is the only way the banks will be able to continue to make payments on their releverage student loans. And with so many out of work, the pressure on the banks to come up with real cash is high.

Easy everyone,,,,it will be alright. All they need to do is just keep pumping that fake money into the system and everything will be just fine,,,,really! Just get that pin away from that ever expanding bubble,,ok?

What happened in 2008? Good hard-working honest Americans were robbed!

Whether it be through their 401K at work or personal investment in the stock market.

Our dollars in the banks became less valuable. Prices for necessities have skyrocketed.

Taxes went up in all areas.


The government bailed out the thieves who stole from us.

Originally posted by charlyv
The experts can all go crap in their hats. It is you and I that make the stock market rise or fall. The economy can be in ruins but the market can look ok, why? Because it is the people's perception of how things are really going that dictates how well the stock market does.

The one thing that the "experts" know, is that if they can start an effective fear storm, then we will cause it all to go down the tubes, to a price where they can pick up the action as cheap as they can get it. Just ignore those idiots and things will be as fine as they can be until a real show stopper pulls rank, and who know's when that will be as well.

My strategy would be buy, make a modest profit and then sell. Put the proceeds in tangible property.

I disagree. The stock market goes up and down depending upon how good businesses are doing. Which then determines how people will buy and sell. Quite frankly, businesses aren't doing that great still, when compared to 8/10 years ago. Its ironic. Just a few months earlier they were saying the economy is getting better and jobs are on the rise. I TOLD people that the only reason the economy shows signs of strengthening is because of seasonal jobs, and temporary positions. Not to mention, you can't forget about the unemployment rate that is not shown on statistics. I am talking about those people who have lost jobs, were on unemployment, cut off, and still without jobs. Honestly, this brings tears to me eyes because there are some people who were really trying to do well but, were either short on luck or discriminated against just because they have been without a job for a while. Therefore, there are more homeless people now that aren't accounted for and that no one cares about.

So, if someone is in a particular situation how are they supposed to afford to invest in the stock market or gold for that matter? I'm struggling to get by myself. Even if the price of a share of stock was 25 or $50. What makes you think I am going to invest in that if I don't have the income to support my needs to the fullest?

Before I go, I would like to just add in the fact it's only been federal contractors and businesses that have been making any profits for the most part. Though, they are even cutting down on that. In other words, you can't have a stock market without a growing private sector.

reply to post by mindlessbrainpower89


I completely agree with mindlessbrainpower89's post. As someone looking for a job, and been looking, I can say that yes jobs are hard to come by(as I write this, I should probably be looking for one); I've even had a CEO helping me with my resume tell me the same thing: Jobs just aren't there.

The economy isn't as great as everyone is trying to make it out. Sure there's some improvement but it's nothing like it was. The true job report doesn't account for people who are disenfranchised, or have given up finding a job. I found this while trying to find the real unemployment rate: www.aei-ideas.org... Basically the government has decided that if you've given up, you don't count in their numbers which is a nice way to make a bad situation seem better than it is.

I agree that the market does react to how well a business does, but a company can get around that. If I want my stock to go up, I can just go out into the market and start buying it back.

As for Gortex's post, I think its possible that a crash could happen, although I would call it more of a correction instead though(hope for a correction might be more accurate though). I put stop-loss orders on all my stocks months ago mostly because the financial statements, while good, would eventually start to not me expectations therefore dropping the stocks; I was also reading some doom and gloom stuff and decided I'd rather not get burned again.

The market is cyclical, so eventually there will be another crash, another bull run, another time when it goes up for a few years and then goes back down, then more prosperity, then a crash, and on, and on, and on.

Originally posted by On7a7higher7plane
reply to post by gortex

 

Sounds like BS. The money supply has been expanded and liquidity has been restored.

I don't see the stock market declining below 9,000 any time in the future.

And I doubt even more that GDP will contract to recession levels within Obamas' term. Not even close.

You sound like a sharp person what happens when the expanded money supply you mention has to find it way out of the economy......................INFLATION.



History can actually teach us all a lesson on this. It has happened before and is about to happen again. The stock market is a scam I work for a indicator company and trust me the economy is really bad we continue to cut back farther and farther.



The lowest wage earners are about to put out of the economy because of inflation. They will not be able to afford food and housing in the next 2 years. Anyone under 10 dollars an hour is really having a hard time and it will get even worse as time and inflation keep ticking along.

I have looked into this before, and I'm still undecided about how valid it really is.
On the one hand, these are people who know their numbers, that's the business - studying numbers and seeing patterns, predicting rises and falls... these people make millions from studying the numbers and making predictions based on all available information.

On the other hand, we know there is the PPT, and there are systems in place to prevent a collapse. I guess it just depends on how sudden and dramatic it is, and whether the collapse breaches a limit they have set in place. There's only so much the Fed can buy up and only so many numbers that can be fudged before they're out of options.

We all know the real collapse hasn't happened yet, everything we have seen has been nothing more than papering over the chasms.

Will it be this year? Who knows, I'm not gonna bet on it just because these guys say it's so.

I have said it before and will say it again.

1) Get hold of an Andex Chart (ask you financial advisor, he/she should have one,

2) Cut a piece of ordinary paper into a length representing a 10 year period on the aforementioned chart.

3) Pick a starting point anywhere you like at the bottom of the horizontal axis.

4) I guarantee that at the end of that 10 year cycle, your money has increased, The ups and down are simply noise, and some indicate buy signals.

Remember, the market is for long term investing, timing the market is a fools game. Invest and forget it.

If companies in the US aren't worth investing in permanently, then you are probably going to go to the stone age as the modern age is saying that they can't sell anything there any more. Not sure how "overnight" that will happen.

Are the investors going to do that? Maybe.... But it'll make all their assets and the US dollar worthless - as production will be driven to zero - the value of the dollar will have to collapse too. (Nothing worth buying in the US after that except stone age implements and expensive second hand goods...). Cost of goods will skyrocket, in the shortage the shutdowns of businesses will create.

At some point in time, it is highly plausible that bankers (who own the majority of stocks and cause these enormous investment shifts), will find that they are pumping more money in than they can profitably get out. ROI becomes too onerous for the little money remaining in circulation - esp. since they are draining the money through their foreign lower wage workers' products sold in North America.

In order for the situation to be believeable it would have to include something quite severe, or the average guy is going to slowly put his money in lowered stock prices, until he runs out of spare cash and make his money hand over fist on a return of the stock market - because as long as businesses haven't laid everyone off - there *is* big commerce still going on - and the businesses will stay in business for a while until they've clearly exhausted investment strategies and savings to come out of their rutt. This tends to put money back in the economy for circulation for other companies to feed off of. There may still have been business - just not enough to keep the scale the companies were expecting afloat.

If things get that bad, then not only will you lose your jobs in the biggest companies, but you will lose city after city to chaos and confusion and death? Enormous asset losses, government losses (employment benefits, social benefits, bailout packages, stock market interventions, selling gold for US dollars etc....)

I'm just rambling, but the possibilities for the incarnation of hell, if things are truly out of control are enormous.

It is highly unlikely you wouldn't have noticed the drop in commerce... you won't be able to buy anything anywhere **LONG*** before they pull the plug.

Just an opinion of course - if too many small investors figure that out... they'll have to generate some kind of trouble.

reply to post by Cynic


I'm not so sure about it not being somewhat a timing game.

There will always be the "highest" price the stock reached - and if you bought at that price all the time - it doesn't mean that you will always be able to recover your cost... esp. with companies going bankrupt too.

Buy it and forget it might work if you buy a stable company for a reasonably low price and then never ventured near looking at the market for timing for the next ten years - hopefully the US economy will NOT have been drained to have too little commerce for the big investors. This is a possibility as there is software that predicts many ordinary people's mass gambling behaviours given certain factors in the world around us...

It was discussed by the CBC that some python programmers got together and wrote a program that analysed stocks' behaviours and when they were able to successfully predict for a term of a couple of months, they tested it with actual money, and eventually they found that the banks decided to compete to cause their software to consistently fail (they had to re-analyze what was happening, and realized that some other saavy investors took advantage of discovered weaknesses in this software's behaviour - though they did not mutually know each other)

Hence, the advice - forget about the stock for ten years or more, once you've bought it.

The indices likely only indicate averages of long term S&P 500 listed stock prices - and don't necessarily indicate the crash of Nortel or Lehman brothers, Worldcom, Enron or so on and so forth....

Originally posted by sensibleSenseless
At some point in time, it is highly plausible that bankers (who own the majority of stocks and cause these enormous investment shifts), will find that they are pumping more money in than they can profitably get out. ROI becomes too onerous for the little money remaining in circulation - esp. since they are draining the money through their foreign lower wage workers' products sold in North America.

Just thought of an easy analogy for this: Think "the point that a bicyclist gives up after peddaling up an assymptotically sloped hill - even though he is hell bent to get to the top".

If it crashes it crashes. Worrying about it is like trying to avoid a lightning strike.

If you follow scripture...then the crash comes in one hour...

Alas, alas that great city Babylon, that mighty city! for in one hour is thy judgment come.

And the merchants of the earth shall weep and mourn over her; for no man buyeth their merchandise any more:

[ Revelation 18:10-11 ]

Now we can see how this is going to happen.

Every time the stock market falls, Plunge Protection Team (PPT) steps in and rescues the day.

However, that just delays the inevitable, and increases the risk of greater collapse.

Instead of the relatively little wiggles, the continuous management of the mini-crashes causes build up of the stress, that isn't getting release.

Then one day, PPT find they don't have enough resources to stop the next collapse, when it hits, and the market plunges through all the PPT capital resources and continues on its merry way down to the lowest Temperature known to man -- Absolute Zero.

So, we can see how the Biblical prophecy is likely to be accurate. With the rapid computer trading programs firing on all cylinders, and PPT unable to cope, one hour is all it takes to bring the market down, to wipe out every penny of value in every single stock.

reply to post by KingErik


The "Plunge Protection Team" -- Lol on that one.

More like the Perpetuity Protection Team, tasked with maintaining the status quo and ensuring confidence in the "market".

Is everyone forgetting the fact that Peter Schiff predicted the 2008 crisis? I admit he can be a little over the top, but the man saw the housing market crash coming well before most people. I wouldn't be so quick to dismiss his predictions.