NK A proxy war?

China’s development as a world power both economically and militarily has been rapid. The only thing preventing their ascent to number one in the world is a lack of energy resources.

China to Overtake US...

The US dominates control over the world’s energy resources.

Could China neutralize the US without a direct armed conflict with us? I believe the answer to this question is yes. The US is on the verge of economic collapse, an enraged populace concerned about the loss of civil liberties is ready to wage civil war, and we are way over extended militarily. Consider the following scenario:

*China slips NK a working ICBM(s) allowing NK to follow through with their current threat. On the Korean Peninsula war is instantaneous, Seoul is nearly obliterated by artillery and our 25K troops on the border are overrun by 500K NK soldiers looking to die for the mother country.

*Back at home the nuclear strike on a major US city or cities brings panic and martial law. DHS then cracks down and starts dis-arming citizens and re-locating those in the “fall-out” zone(s). In response militias and individuals start a guerrilla war against our own country. The chaos brings economic collapse and in a desperate attempt to survive, the US recalls its Middle East troops to secure our country.

*The vacuum of power and control over Middle East oil fields is filled by China who steps in “benevolently” to end the conflicts still burning among oil producing nations after the US departure.

*Final result- China in control of the energy it needs without any direct conflict with the US. We are nutralized, they become #1.


I don't root for any of this. I hope any armed conflict can be avoided. But the US is on a tragectory to engage NK in all out war. This won't be Iraq.

Scary thought, and a theoretically possible outcome. Only time will tell

Well that is definitely a scenario I suppose but there are a few problems. The biggest is China simply moving into the Middle East and taking the oil.

I'd imagine the Arab nations might not look too friendly on that. We remember the tough time the Soviets had in Afghanistan plus you have Israel there, with nukes, who may very well offer aid to Kuwait, Iraq, or Iran to smooth negotiations.

You also have the problem of China and their severe lack of transport ability. It is extremely difficult for them to move their troops that distance over land, and they absolutely cannot do it over sea since our subs will still be active.

The world will quickly deduce that China was behind the ICBM attack since they are moving their military around and this will result in extreme sanctions, if not all out war, against them. Their economy will collapse also.

If China actually wanted to take resources militarily they would not go to the Middle East, they would head north to Siberia and engage the Russians. Its close enough for them to effectively operate in.

Originally posted by Nocheechako

China’s development as a world power both economically and militarily has been rapid. The only thing preventing their ascent to number one in the world is a lack of energy resources.

China to Overtake US...

The US dominates control over the world’s energy resources.

Could China neutralize the US without a direct armed conflict with us? I believe the answer to this question is yes. The US is on the verge of economic collapse, an enraged populace concerned about the loss of civil liberties is ready to wage civil war, and we are way over extended militarily. Consider the following scenario:

*China slips NK a working ICBM(s) allowing NK to follow through with their current threat. On the Korean Peninsula war is instantaneous, Seoul is nearly obliterated by artillery and our 25K troops on the border are overrun by 500K NK soldiers looking to die for the mother country.

*Back at home the nuclear strike on a major US city or cities brings panic and martial law. DHS then cracks down and starts dis-arming citizens and re-locating those in the “fall-out” zone(s). In response militias and individuals start a guerrilla war against our own country. The chaos brings economic collapse and in a desperate attempt to survive, the US recalls its Middle East troops to secure our country.

*The vacuum of power and control over Middle East oil fields is filled by China who steps in “benevolently” to end the conflicts still burning among oil producing nations after the US departure.

*Final result- China in control of the energy it needs without any direct conflict with the US. We are nutralized, they become #1.


I don't root for any of this. I hope any armed conflict can be avoided. But the US is on a tragectory to engage NK in all out war. This won't be Iraq.

China doesn't need to do this. It literally outbid other oil companies (including American) in Iraq, years ago. It still has good ties with Iran on this front, as well. Hell, they're even benefiting from the mineral trade and extraction in Afghanistan (a nation America invaded and financed). They also have holdings in the Central Asian "-stan" nations, despite Russian competition and influence. And if worse came to worse, they could always import gas from an eager-to-sell Russia. A costly and dangerous war right at their border, which would bring American forces in their supposed sphere of influence would make absolutely no sense in consideration of the above facts. I'm sorry, but I have to disagree with this theory. Interesting thoughts, though.

Link: www.thestreet.com...

The United States has around 20.000 nuclear warheads. They have 14 trident subs with almost 100 nuclear tipped tomahawks each. Each single one of these subs could end the world as we know it and bring our race to the level of total extinction.

Considering the nuclear strike policy - which was recently adjusted in order to allow for pre-emptive use of tactical nuclear munitions - your scenario is absurd, and would lead to total annihilation of both, China and the US, as well as the rest of the world.

Even a limited nuclear exchange with "only" about 100 warheads in the megaton range would devastate the earth completely and end society as we know it.

In opposite to the US though, the Chinese are quite smart and patient people. They know their time will come and they don't care if it takes 100 or 200 years longer.

In opposite to the US though, the Chinese are quite smart and patient people. They know their time will come and they don't care if it takes 100 or 200 years longer.

Very well said.

They are moving upward and seem to be keeping things in check, other than their environmental problems, and they seem pretty well set with resources with their alliances in the Middle East but more importantly Africa. And they are doing it without the brutal colonization techniques that the West used.

My foreign policy professor the other day said that the age of European rule is over, we are not entering an era of Asian rule.

I think I would agree with him.

I don't think China is on North Korea's side for this conflict. We are both getting pretty annoyed at all the instability North Korea is causing. From what I understand, The Chinese and the U.S. are actually growing a stronger alliance during this.

I'm pretty sure we won't have a conflict with China for awhile. Probably once the Chinese feel their military is superior to ours.

The last thing China wants is the fall of the US. That would lead to China's economic collapse and massive global arms race. China needs the US and the US needs China and they both know it. The last thing China wants is a war in Korea.

reply to post by H1ght3chHippie


You pretty much hit the nail on the head there! Asian people in general are quite patient, and so are the Russians for that matter. I always compare people and nations to Cat and Dog. Dog tent to bark and attack to chase down their prey. Cats just sit before the hole and wait till the mouse comes out, - eventually.
Our whole western industrial/capitalistic society is based on "Time". Just look now on the many "project" reality shows. Always a "Dead-line" to be kept. And then when people have to deal with Asia, South America or Africa, they get all riled up about their "manjana" attitude. I just happened to watch yesterday "The Art of War" from this 500BC Chinese General ZSU (Sp?) and it is quite an eyeopener. I am pretty well aware that in general especially the USA behaves more like the Dog, while China is the "cute kitty-cat".

Originally posted by MrSpad
The last thing China wants is the fall of the US. That would lead to China's economic collapse and massive global arms race. China needs the US and the US needs China and they both know it. The last thing China wants is a war in Korea.

Correct me if I'm wrong in this, but I thought this fact was slightly dated. I was under the impression that China had begun uncoupling its economy from U.S. and was adjusting their economy from export-based to domestic spending based. Or had this transition not been finalized yet?

Everyone seems to think South Korea is some hostage and they are dead meat in any outcome. They have more high tech weaponry and firepower than the North thanks to us. They also sport a large population. Which are all well fed with a booming economy. Tell me how they just get stomped and overrun by NK troops. They have superior firepower and an ally with superior firepower and they know their own terrain well. Tell me how North Korea hits all target bases overruns SK and survives all of this intact. They will be carpet bombed into oblivion, no nukes required. Only way SK gets crippled is if the NK is on a suicide run. After that the South takes over the whole country. Then China gets extremely uncomfortable and we are now at there border.

Originally posted by MrStyx
Everyone seems to think South Korea is some hostage and they are dead meat in any outcome. They have more high tech weaponry and firepower than the North thanks to us. They also sport a large population. Which are all well fed with a booming economy. Tell me how they just get stomped and overrun by NK troops. They have superior firepower and an ally with superior firepower and they know their own terrain well. Tell me how North Korea hits all target bases overruns SK and survives all of this intact. They will be carpet bombed into oblivion, no nukes required. Only way SK gets crippled is if the NK is on a suicide run. After that the South takes over the whole country. Then China gets extremely uncomfortable and we are now at there border.

Exactly, I never quite understood why the public believes that South Korea would be easy to walk into, like the gate is just wide open. Their infrastructure and equipment is decades ahead of NK. They have a decently sized population (though smaller than NK). They have an economy to support a long-term engagement, with allies to boot. NK may have the size, but size can be cumbersome and and meaningless in these types of war where precision strikes could easily destroy key NK infrastructure and bottleneck large forces.

reply to post by MrStyx


Numbers and training.

NK has about 1.1 million active duty soldiers with about another 8.2 million in reserve, and their special forces, considered by many to be the best in the world, number around 200,000. They will simply overwhelm the South who cannot put up anywhere close to those numbers.

Its estimated that they can be across the DMZ in a matter of hours and wreaking havoc in the South. The South would be steamrolled over similar to the last war.

reply to post by ForwardDrift


The strategy of the North, at least as close as we can analyze, is to penetrate into the South quickly enough that precision strikes are worthless.

Think of the Tet offensive in Vietnam and you can see what type of war this will quickly turn into. Street to street fighting and I would have to give the edge to the North here because of their training. It won't even be close until the US gets their troops in there. I'd imagine Australia would be up there fairly quick also.

reply to post by Nocheechako


Nuclear weapons have signatures. We'd know if it was Chinese vs. NK's. Also, the Chinese have less than 200 active and ready ICBMs that can reach us, we have 2000 that can hit them, and an extensive missile defense system. Do you really think they'd risk it?

an enraged populace concerned about the loss of civil liberties is ready to wage civil war

We are FAR away from that. Concerned? Sure...but civil war? The possibility of that is laughable. Just what am I, a private citizen, going to do against a tank? Nothing or die...those are my two options.

reply to post by Gazrok


And don't forget that America's nuclear deterrence is based around the second strike capability put forth by the triad system.

They have absolutely no way to knock us out of the fight even if they fire first and it assures their destruction. This is why they won't launch on us. China that is.

Proxy war or not, the Chinese will definitely enters the war, one way or another.
Siding with the USA is just not an option to the general populace and whoever calls for that will be shown the door or worse.

If the war drags on, their so-called righteous indignation will set in and voluntary armies will be formed like those in the first Korean War. They proved that before and no rulers in China are going to stop them because that will be the end of their political or military careers.

The Chinese are almost inscrutable in most things but on this case, they will play this hand to take down the USA a notch and they don't really care so much about casualties.

They have a "No First Use" nuclear doctrine and minimal deterrence but they made sure that their ability to inflict heavy losses with mega tonnage and not some fancy theatrical, oops, tactical bombs. Kinda like how many cars we should have in the garage ? The answer is obviously only one, right ?

reply to post by Hopechest


Numbers is nothing when they are all starving and ill equipped. Doesn't matter how many are on active duty. If you dont have the proper equipment or training your just another target.

Where do you get such info to call a regime who hasn't seen battle in decades the best in the world. Where are they training and who with? They cant even feed the population now let alone feed them for a ground offensive.

Originally posted by ForwardDrift

Originally posted by MrSpad
The last thing China wants is the fall of the US. That would lead to China's economic collapse and massive global arms race. China needs the US and the US needs China and they both know it. The last thing China wants is a war in Korea.

Correct me if I'm wrong in this, but I thought this fact was slightly dated. I was under the impression that China had begun uncoupling its economy from U.S. and was adjusting their economy from export-based to domestic spending based. Or had this transition not been finalized yet?

edit on 5-4-2013 by ForwardDrift because: (no reason given)

That is a dream for the future. China will have to transition from a cheap labor production economy to a more high tech tech service industry just like Japan had to. That is a long hard road ahead. Right now it is all about the exports for China.

Originally posted by Hopechest
reply to post by ForwardDrift

 

The strategy of the North, at least as close as we can analyze, is to penetrate into the South quickly enough that precision strikes are worthless.

Think of the Tet offensive in Vietnam and you can see what type of war this will quickly turn into. Street to street fighting and I would have to give the edge to the North here because of their training. It won't even be close until the US gets their troops in there. I'd imagine Australia would be up there fairly quick also.

Have you forgotten about the better trained and better armed South Koreans? And as for the training of the North, they spend large parts of their year picking crops and doing labor instead of training.