Korea : Military Concerns and Summaries

reply to post by IndianaJoe

Your timeline is fascinating to see and I don't doubt there are similar ones sitting on desks in the Pentagon and on staffer desks at the White House.

There is a minor problem with planning all that out ...particularly with happy endings and a near end state inside 10 days in the South and Pyonyang in U.S. hands with full control inside 20.

The same things appeared before 2002 in Afghanistan and 2003 in Iraq. Similar ones have come for other conflicts too. Some may even recall a distant little invasion called Just Cause. It, too had timelines and casualty numbers. All wrong...and grossly wrong on the casualty counts as it happened. Even Grenada (Urgent Fury) was a general balls up compared to planning. Ask the families of the SEALs who drowned in the opening of the mini-invasion.

I agree with your assessment of the enormous casualty numbers of a general open war there...I just disagree strongly on wrapping it all up from relative start to finish (after a full invasion and over-run of the South, no less) in under a month. North Korea is primitive by modern war standards ....unfortunately, they are SO primitive, that actually gives them a true tactical advantage in some important ways. The AN-2 Bi-Plane for troop transport is one of the best examples of how they take lemons and make some pretty clever lemonade.

reply to post by Wrabbit2000


Rabbit

A war in NK lasting 10 days is all but realistic. 10 days! Rag tags are taking 10 years.... 3 days to run out of rations... really? Wow... they're AT HOME. How the... oh well...

But... why am I talking to you? im not talking to you! you left out the mi24!!!! you disrespectful... long eared... white furry... thing. you should apologise for that lapse you know? the Mi24 man! I mean rabbit!

reply to post by FraternitasSaturni

I figure that last part is humor. Must be... Someone can't possibly be that hung up over the exclusion of a helicopter that may or may not live all of 10 minutes from take off in a real war. (Unless they hide like song birds in the deep valleys and canyons....and that might buy them a whole 2nd or 3rd mission. Likely not a 4th). The tiny area involved here means Aegis cruisers could literally pick off such things at their leisure from safe distances off shore. The "Flying Battleship" as it was called in 1980's Afghanistan is formidable ....when it's top on the block. It's a BIG target and a slow one at that ...in a modern, all out war.

^^ Just a little added for context on why I don't consider the Mi-24 to be a factor here once general war begins.


(For those who may not immediately picture which helicopter we're talking about)

As for timelines? Well, if the first scenario many have outlined does come to pass and Kim's regime folds like a cheap suit on laundry day? 10 days is reasonable. ....in the more likely event his nation actually fights? I know the US hasn't HAD a nation actually fight back in over 25 years ...so it's tough to recall what determined resistance from a proper military is like, but we're in for a long, slow and bloody fight after the initial fury of opening moves, IMO. Nothing quick and nothing neat ...if they don't fall REAL fast by near implosion like happened in Iraq in 2003.

Originally posted by Wrabbit2000
reply to post by Golf66

 

Korea - Part 1

Korea - Part 2

They'll also be in my signature for at least a couple weeks I imagine.

Hope that helps.

Thanks Mate...

While I will read through it all before I comment on the data I want to point out one thing.

First thing to remember about N. Korea is that they (even Lil’Kim) know very well they cannot win.

What they hope to achieve is an Information Warfare victory by breaking the spirit/will of the US population by the audacity of their first strike. Imagine the outrage at the death of 7 marines in an IED magnified by a factor of 1000. With an additional number somewhere near 20K as POW's and human shields. Imagine seeing American POW’s outside the N. Korean Command bunkers in chains…

Anyway, they know they can't win but the key leaders and elite hope to gain (in exchange for these prisoners) positions of power and wealth (along with amnesty) in the reunification agreement (brokered by China) they want their own “Daewoo” plants and imagine the wealth to be made from the construction projects to build any appreciable infrastructure in the North. They will most assuredly sacrifice a few million N. Korean peasants to make that happen – they could care less they starve them to death as a matter of course.

The basic idea is to intimidate the war weary American public at a key point in time. I think as we draw down to the end of conventional forces in Afghanistan and bring home kids (really Senior NCO's by now - still kids to me ) from their 5th tours and our budget strains to keep pace might be that window for them.

A massive first strike will American's in the streets protesting against our involvement in another war. With the current apologist of a POTUS and the current economy they may just think this may be the last chance to use their outdated equipment to some affect. When put in a position with not much to lose one can only expect some kind of action even if it seems suicidal.

Also, to note this will meet the Asian – “Saving Face” meme as they went out with a bang instead of a whimper.

Just one comment about their "SF" before I get to your synopsis - they are harder than woodpecker lips. Their training while not as technical as ours makes up for that lack with sheer friggin pain and suffering. They have some unique units capable of carrying out devastating attacks on pre-arranged targets within S. Korea.

Most certainly there are sleeper cells with caches of weapons (demo) capable of striking key installations and capturing key leaders.

The DPRK now says the Kaesong Industrial Zone Depends on S. Korea's Attitude

DPRK Warns Future of Kaesong Industrial Zone Depends on S. Korea's Attitude

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Pyongyang, March 30 (KCNA) -- The General Bureau for Central Guidance to the Development of the Special Zone released the following statement Saturday:
The north-south military hotline was cut off as the Korean Armistice Agreement has been completely nullified, creating a warlike situation.
There exists neither a channel for dialogue nor any communications means between the north and the south.
The entry into the Kaesong Industrial Zone by the south side's personnel has been put in jeopardy.
No one can see an inch ahead as regards the destiny of the Kaesong Industrial Zone.
But the puppet group of south Korea, its dutiful media and hack writers are saying that "the north does not take up the issue of the zone because it is a source for its foreign currency income" and talking about "two faces of the north". They are even insulting the dignity of the supreme leadership of the DPRK.
It is an extremely unusual thing that the Kaesong Industrial Zone is still in existence under the grave situation in which the north-south relations have plunged into a deadlock and the Korean Peninsula is on the verge of a war due to the U.S. and the south Korean warmongers' vicious moves for igniting a nuclear war against the DPRK.
Under the situation, the south Korean puppet forces are left with no face to make complaint even though we ban the south side's personnel's entry into the zone and close it.
But we have exercised self-restraint, taking into consideration that the closure of the zone on which the livelihood of small and medium businesses of south Korea hinge can leave those businesses bankrupt and lots of people jobless.
In fact, it is the puppet group and small and medium businesses of south Korea, not the DPRK, which benefit from the zone.
But the paid media and media men of south Korea have gone thoughtless to become vocal about the zone just like imbeciles bereft of elementary ability for assessing the situation.
If the puppet group seeks to tarnish the image of the DPRK even a bit, while speaking of the zone whose operation has been barely maintained, we will shut down the zone without mercy.
The south Korean group should clearly know that its short tongue may bring it an irretrievable misfortune.
The DPRK does whatever it says it will and the future of the zone entirely depends on the attitude of the south Korean puppet group.
The south side's businessmen operational in the zone should clearly face up to the situation and reject the rhetoric of the group and its paid media who act just like a "thief crying stop the thief".
We will closely follow the movement of the puppet group and the reactionary media.
We warn that we will take a resolute measure, should rhetoric insulting the dignity of the DPRK continues. -0-

they failed to mention their DPRK's income from it, wonder where that money goes [like i have to ask] more nukes and weapons, not for food.

10-20 days for forces to enter Pyongyang is realistic. Once we have American armor on the ground getting to Pyongyang will not take long. Hell, the North may even want to bait us into doing so. Capturing things is easy, holding them is a whole different matter. This won't be a typical war, capturing the enemies capitol will mean diddly squat. I never meant to state that capturing Pyongyang this would be an end of hostilities. Fighting could drag out for years. I think such an engagement would be more costly than any American operation since Dday (perhaps more so). If China intervenes though, I don't see how Kim could possibly retain any control as a leader of any sort. North Korea would be come one big cluster **** death trap. America would wan't no part in policing that hell hole, once Kim's power base is neutralized and South Korea secure we would leave the mess for China to clean up.

In regards to the North running out of supplies in 3-7 days that is absolutely correct. They can't feed their current standing Army in peacetime. North Korea could only sustain a conventional million man troop movement for a short duration. Do you have any idea the support personal you need to have on hand to move even a division of combat troops? Meals alone weigh hundreds of tons.1960's era tanks and heavy trucks eat through gas, they would almost assuredly be out of gas within a week. Tactical bombing would devastate their supply lines.

North Korea wouldn't want to have continued large troop movements as they are vulnerable to air assault. I thought I was clear that at this stage of the conflict North Korean troops will begin to conduct guerrilla war and disperse into small non conventional units. They will rape, pillage and steal to resupply themselves and continue the war effort. War crimes on a sickening scale are all but assured at this stage.

The point of my post was to demonstrate that this war is not an easy win. Best case scenario, over a million people die and China picks up territory or the the status quo remains largely in place. Before going into any battle you first must ask "what is our objective"? So tell me what should the American objective be? Because as soon as its complete we should get the hell out of there.

reply to post by Wrabbit2000


Beautiful isnt it? I'm glad you value our friendship... or you're afraid of the "stew". Either way, apologies accepted rabbit

reply to post by IndianaJoe
That would bring China in!! US invading the DPRK?? China would not allow it!! we would get Nuked. No the only way is to have Un surrender now, he has seen the B2 now he will see the F22 and now the talk in the south is to bring back in the TNW's Tactical Nuclear Weapon's ie cruse and Tomahawk's or remake the W48 155mm,or the 208mm[8inch] nuke shells here is a list of possible remakes

MGR-1 Honest John free flight rocket delivering W7 nuclear weapon, 1953
M65 Atomic Cannon delivering 280mm W9 and W19 nuclear shells, 1953
MGM-5 Corporal missile delivering W7 nuclear weapon, 1955
M110 howitzer delivering 203mm W33 nuclear shell, deployed in 1957
M115 howitzer delivering 203mm W33 nuclear shell, deployed in 1957
M-28 Davy Crockett (nuclear device) M-388 warhead derived from W54, 1961-1971
MGM-18 Lacrosse missile with nuclear warhead. It was deployed in West Germany from 1959 to 1963.
M109 self-propelled and M114 towed howitzers delivering 155mm W48 nuclear weapon starting in 1963
MGM-29 Sergeant missile delivering W52 nuclear weapon, 1963
MGM-31 Pershing missile delivering W50 nuclear weapon, 1969
MGM-52 Lance missile delivering W70 nuclear weapon, 1972
Pershing II missile delivering W85 nuclear weapon, 1983 now i do not know what new ones we have or have tried to develop sense the late 80's when the MX was the big thing, next to RWR's "star wars program" AKA SDI

In short, the only nation capable of taking and holding NK is China because a) they have the money and man power to do it and b) they ideologically are ok with loosing hundreds of thousands of men and c) NK is their back yard.

Any american campaign would be defensive in nature. Just like the first time, the US would not attempt to hold anything in the north and China will not allow us to establish bases there. This gives Kim leverage with the US and he knows it. In some regards, Kim could rationalize that he has little to loose by launching a mass offensive into the south. His strategy is to cause such damage that the US is pressured into moving troops into NK so China comes to his aid and negotiates a truce along the current status quo. Again, my point is that Kim is insane but not stupid, this is a war he can win from his own subjective standpoint.

If the US suffers mass causalities we will need to launch a counter offensive into the North in order to make recapturing the south feasible. A totally defensive war would result in a protracted war of attrition that America can not win, the south will eventually fall and Seoul will become Ho Chi Kim city (get it). Conventional strategy would be to open up a second front, the best defense is a good offense. Unfortunately this creates a dangerous catch 22 (as you mentioned china would intervene) for American forces and puts us in a lose lose situation. There is actually a great deal of logic to Kim's strategy. In essence we can not "win" a conventional war and if this goes nuclear its WW3 no matter how you cut it. Kim's position is not as weak as many here would like to have everyone believe.

reply to post by FraternitasSaturni

Nothing. Leave those at home

Not at all, they'd be part of the first night stealth wave to go in and take out fighters on the ground and command and controll targets. If any of the MiG-29's got up, they'd engage those also. Also, they'd drop EMP type weapons for blinding command and control (though a lot of that is buried pretty deep in NK).

10-20 days for forces to enter Pyongyang is realistic.

That's the beauty of it...wouldn't even have to. Simply destroy the vast majority of their war machine in the first week, then sit back, fly overhead dropping bombs, until they all run out of food and gas. Then give them a chance to come to the table....begging.

Update on US activity's in South Korea from KCNA news

U.S. Redeploys Chemical Battalion in S. Korea

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Pyongyang, April 1 (KCNA) -- The U.S. redeployed the 23rd chemical battalion at its Second Division in south Korea, according to the Yonhap News of south Korea.
It is mulling staging a farce of opening war equipment to media in the Uijongbu base in Kyonggi Province on April 4.
The warmongers took this action as a "counteraction" against someone.
This is one more clear evidence proving that the U.S. imperialists are busy with preparations for a nuclear war against the DPRK. -0-

no Mr.little pan head Kim use nuke Un, they are their if you decide to use Bio Chem or Nukes, your call not ours. did a little digging and this was preplanned www.dvidshub.net... from the link

“These soldiers will set new standards in the combating weapons of mass destruction fight for other regions in the world to follow, they will build ever lasting partnerships and continue to be the tip of the spear in the future of our regiment,” Zumwalt said. “Not only do they stand ready to ‘Fight Tonight,’ but they will provide a unique capability and skill set that will bring the 2nd ID to higher levels of readiness.

The battalion’s relocation will bring approximately 300 Soldiers to Camp Stanley and is scheduled to be completed by March 2013.

“Freedom is God’s gift to mankind, as members of the greatest fighting force; you are the protectors of that gift. Yours is the highest of callings, a duty upon which the freedom of billions depends, we will miss you and you will always have a special place in our hearts,” Zumwalt said. “Lead from the front and answer our nation’s call.”

Read more: www.dvidshub.net...#ixzz2PFtMXACL

my I add Amen to that last

“Freedom is God’s gift to mankind, as members of the greatest fighting force; you are the protectors of that gift. Yours is the highest of callings, a duty upon which the freedom of billions depends, we will miss you and you will always have a special place in our hearts,” Zumwalt said. “Lead from the front and answer our nation’s call.”

Sounds as if he might know something as if on a one way mission

we will miss you and you will always have a special place in our hearts,

not the usual send off.

reply to post by bekod


yea... pretty strange send off... if it is a one-way ticket then this has been planned a while ago. And... that kinda makes little kim almost right... weird.

Quite an interesting thread. Well done to the 'op' for his research and the variability of its accuracy. Of course, the thread is filled with various posts thinking it is going to be another easy rout for American military, through to others being more cautious and sentinel on how a war with North Korea might pan out. Somewhere amongst all the scenarios posted here, the real situation will become evident.

North Korean military is pretty much a blunt tool, that is until they acquired nukes. The acquisition of basic nuclear devices changed the ball game, and the war-like rhetoric coming out of the mouth of NK's propaganda machine. For our understanding it's all about context, and we can't have any frame of reference for context unless we can learn something of the North Korean mind.

Just to side-track slightly, I'd like to mention something about America's use of technology, because for all its superiority, it is also it's greatest weakness. The key to combatting America's use of technology is to disrupt its communications capability, and that means disrupting the electronics. America's military travels far and wide and requires a massive back up support system of supply, which is a logistical nightmare. By isolating forward forces from their back up supply, even temporarily, allows for a more focussed attack on the forward forces themselves.

Usually, American military tends to park itself off coasts and borders, and then begins to punch at the enemy well out of reach of its ability to hit back, meaning that American military using the formidable fire power of its navy and airforce, strike at the enemy pretty much with impunity. That is all and good for America facing a foe lacking nuclear weaponry. However, confronting an enemy that is nuclear-armed is an entirely different proposition, as the risk of losing all of your forward forces becomes a very real possibility. With North Korea you are facing a blunt military tool that is nuclear-armed. With this knowledge forefront in one's mind, having a complete manifesto of your enemy's conventional military capability is not the greatest concern. Of course it is necessary, but what is of greater concern about one's enemy is their will and determination to use their nuclear weapons, hence the necessity of being able to gauge the mind you are up against.

Can we gauge the North Korean mind with any accuracy, especially that of their leader and his advisors? The answer to that has to be both 'yes' and 'no'. We can certainly gain a general view, but not one with any real detail that helps us make accurate assessments that we can act on. North Korea is an isolated nation, and has been isolated for decades, with it's only interface with the rest of the world coming through Chinese channels. It still promotes a communistic view, but with addition of total obediency to their leader around whom they have given an aura of almost god-like status. There are parallels to be drawn here with the way the Japanese viewed Hirohito during WW2, something I have remarked about in other earlier posts elsewhere on ATS. We can expect the North Korean military to fight with a fanaticism bordering on the kamikaze to inflict (in order) defeat, death, destruction, and high cost upon their perceived enemy. They may very well throw themselves willingly upon your bayonets just to get within reach of you?

If North Korea has the will and determination to use the nukes it has, when would be the best time for them to do so? I would imagine they have studied the ways in which America uses its forces? I should also think they would know how capable a war machine it is, what technology it uses to both blind and make mute their enemy? If Kim Jung-Un is a man able to use clear and objective logic he will see that pre-emptive nuclear strikes upon the assembled military hardware ranged against him would be the way to go. Let them assemble all their power off your coasts and then attack it without warning, hit the fleets with nukes, cut off the forward forces in South Korea, and use conventional and chemical and biological weaponry against them.

The idea being not to win, but to cause too high a cost in the loss of human life and hardware, even though you know such action would lead to your utter annihilation. It would seem to me that paying too high a cost is the ultimate bluff that Kim Jung-Un is counting on? That such a threat is enough to use as a bargaining chip. On that score, he is entirely wrong.

reply to post by Wrabbit2000


S&Fed your thread already and have been reading just a bit but wanted to add this little concern about the connection between NK and Iran. Not sure if you have this link already or not but also thought it may come in handy.

Iran Crisis Increasingly Tied to North Korea
Frida Ghitis
Posted on April 4, 2013 by editor

missilethreat.com...

Thank you Antar. I appreciate that. I have a stack of original source material relating to that, actually. I'm considering making a 4th part to this which includes that ..I dunno.. I have to think on that. As things progress though, I'm leaning harder on coming back to a couple big areas I dropped or just didn't touch for these 3. That's one of them.

My siggy will update with a 4th link in the row if I do. It's just something I need to really consider before doing. Thanks for the update though and that is helpful. It definitely addresses the question in some ways for others.

reply to post by elysiumfire


Well thought out post!

I would add a few items for your consideration.

I see your analogy between NK and WW2 era Japanese and I agree that there are parallels to be drawn. The important difference may be subtle. In WW2 the Japanese leaders would rather a partial victory rather than a possible defeat. Such thinking stems from Bushido. They attached Pearl Harbor and left without risking going after the Carriers that had sneaked out of port. At that point in the war they had the advantage of fighter design, experience and just about everything else. But a partial victory could be celebrated.

I am convinced that NK will not be like this. They will attack and destroy their target at any cost. There is a huge difference here. I also do not believe they will engage in useless Kamikaze style troop charge attacks as did Japan.

With sixty years of tunnel construction, NK may well believe that they are largely immune to US atomic weapons as far as their major military infrastructure goes. They also know that China will not allow the US the wholesale use of Atomic weapons and so have a measure of security.

NK also do not really care if there civilian population is halved by a war. I get the feeling that with the elite safe in Bunkers they would look at the numbers as numbers only, seeing a faster version of China's negative population growth. They may not cheer, but they will not shed tears.

Lastly, a look at history shows clearly that many war leaders are somewhat unhinged. Just look at the decisions of Hitler, some were woeful! If you think of a spoilt, only child, thinking the US has thousands of Nukes and we can't have just a few dozen, WTF. This point also has the benefit of truth behind it. Remember he was raised by his father and by his father's Generals. The one word I may use to guess at his personality would be 'Petulant'.

This does not bode well. They may actually believe that they can grind the US war machine down. The two big questions are, what weapons does he have up his sleeves that we are not aware of and who else is willing to help. A handful of countries with secret backing could pull it off especially if fifth column attack forces are in place.

How will the US public react if they find themselves under direct attack inside their borders with an enemy willing to simply kill as many as possible.

P

reply to post by Wrabbit2000


Please do the others, it is important to have your work as a reference material should the dogs of war be let loose in this region.

P