The Papal Prediction thread

There are a lot of threads popping up with people's predictions on who will be the next pope. I thought it would be nice to have, inaddition to those, one basic thread for reference. If you have a prediction, post it here and we can see who got it correct. (if this belongs elsewhere .. mods please move). I had wanted to do a point-bet thread for this .. but that seems to have not gone anywhere ....

My short list -

1 - Cardinal Angelo Scola .. age 71 ... From Milan.
2 - Cardinal Tarcisio Bertone .. age 78 ... Vatican Secretary of State
3 - Cardinal Agostino Vallini .. age 72 ... Vicar of Rome.

And the name ... Pope Pius XIII.
(although Cardinal Scola could surprise us with John Paul III or Paul VII)

The average age of a pope at election is in the mid 60's, so my picks are a bit older.
The average time a pope is in office is about 10 years.

Pope Benedict promoted a lot of Italian cardinals. I believe he has purposely stacked the deck to bring in an Italian pope next. And since the pope is the Bishop of Rome, most Romans want an Italian Bishop.

In refernece to the name 'peter' in the famous prophecy ... the name 'peter' doesn't matter. All popes stand in Peter's shoes and all are sometimes referred to as 'peter' or 'in the shoes of peter' or 'in the fishermans shoes' .. and all sit on the Chair of Peter. So having to fill the name 'peter' doesn't matter.

Cardinal Scola is like Pope John Paul II. Bertone is already running things. He is the Secretary of State and he's kind of following Ratzinger (pope Benedicts) footsteps. Cardinal Vallini is well liked by the cardinals and is Vicar of Rome.

The voting will be based on politics .. not popularity back home. The voting doesn't come from the bottom up but instead comes from the top down. It is based on the mood of the cardinals ... traditional and conservative ... or seeing need for change ...

FlyersFans Quick Guide to Papal Politics

On a much earlier thread I predicted a Canadian, before knowing one was in the running. This occurred when I was reading that thread and suddenly had a deju vu all over again, and recalling that reading the thread was part of a dream where a Canadian pope was then elected.

Oh Canada!

The voting will be based on politics .. not popularity back home. The voting doesn't come from the bottom up but instead comes from the top down. It is based on the mood of the cardinals ... traditional and conservative ... or seeing need for change ...

And herein lies the problem
It makes no difference who is the future pope until the whole of catholicism gets to vote.
I appreciate the thread idea and salute you for it.
But when I wake up and there is a new pope what difference will it make ?

Oh yeah............................Bugger all

reply to post by cody599


I thought it would be fun to have a thread with people posting who they think it'll be and why. They could still start their own threads to argue their points or whatever, but at least we'd have one reference thread to see what people were predicting.

reply to post by Aleister


Cardinal Thomas Christopher Collins
- At 66, he fits into the 'average age' for popes to be elected.
- His doctoral dissertation - "Apocalypse 22:6–21 as the Focal Point of Moral Teaching and Exhortation in the Apocalypse."
- His motto is from the Apocalypse as well - "Deum Adora", meaning, "Worship God" (Revelation 22:9)
- I don't know if he speaks Italian. It's an unwritten rule that the pope has to speak Italian.

Cardinal Jean-Claude Turrotte
- Age 76. A bit old but not out of the question. Semi-retired.
- From Montreal.
- I don't know if he speaks Italian.

Cardinal Marc Ouellet - Canadian pope prospect who says top job would be a 'nightmare'

ETA ... Cardinal Collins has a lot of interest in Apocolyptic things ...

Originally posted by cody599
It makes no difference who is the future pope until the whole of catholicism gets to vote.

The Catholic Church doesn't work that way.

That would be like Jesus showing up and asking the people .. what do you want to believe, I'll make my sermons say what you want them to. The Church is supposed to be a top to down pyramid organization .. the top being God. (supposedly).

And yes .. it doesn't make a difference IMHO.
But it's fun to speculate about.

Originally posted by FlyersFan
reply to post by cody599

 

I thought it would be fun to have a thread with people posting who they think it'll be and why. They could still start their own threads to argue their points or whatever, but at least we'd have one reference thread to see what people were predicting.

My apologies Flyers Fan
That was very ingracious of me
Mods please feel free to remove that post
I'm thinking black pope; just can't equate it to whether he (note the he) would be of the Jesuit order or dark skinned ?
Great thread. look forward to the replies Apologies again

reply to post by FlyersFan


First, a couple honourable mentions:


Marc Ouellet

He seems to be a favourite with people outside the Vatican. However, he has also expressed reluctance to be Pope. If elected, it's quite possible that he will turn down the position. For this reason, I expect that, while he may be popular with non-Italians in the conclave, he probably won't receive any sort of majority.


Peter Turkson

A second favourite. But I don't see him getting a majority either, mainly because Benedict XVI has stacked the deck with Italians. Also, it happens often enough that the one or two most popular picks ultimately fail to get any significant votes.


Angelo Scola

The fact that he is Italian, and only 71, is in his favour. But I think he comes second.

And the one who I feel will be the next Pope:


Tarcisio Bertone

Bertone is 78, but he is Italian, he is a professional politician with a high position in the Vatican (Secretary of State), and, although I don't believe that the Malachy prophecy is being fulfilled through anything other than a conscious effort on the part of the Vatican (or simple coincidence), he does meet the "Peter the Roman" criteria in two ways apart from his nationality: 1) his second name is Pietro, which is Italian for Peter; and 2) his coat of arms bears the keys of St. Peter, which is true of no other candidate.

And I also think he'll take the name Pius XIII.

Go check the online odds of who will win.
They who run the books know more than anyone

www.paddypower.com...

reply to post by CLPrime

Two who are on your short list are also on my short list.
And you've picked the same name.

Bertone comes up a lot in discussions. He's a natural choice.
Secretary of State .. he basically runs everything anyways.

Originally posted by borntowatch
www.paddypower.com...

Awesome. I hadn't seen that.

Cardinal Peter Turkson (Ghana) 5/2
Archbishop Angelo Scola (Italy) 7/2
Cardinal Marc Ouellet (Canada) 4/1
Cardinal Tarcisio Bertone (Italy) 6/1
Cardinal Leonardo Sandri (Argentina) 10/1
Cardinal Oscar Rodriguez Maradiaga (Honduras) 12/1
Cardinal Francis Arinze (Nigeria) 12/1

Arinze isn't papable now. He's too old.
He was who I had hoped for last time around ...

reply to post by FlyersFan

Two who are on your short list are also on my short list.

Once you weed through all the unlikely candidates, you're really only left with half a dozen names, and even most of those have issues that could keep them from being elected. Bertone himself is a rather tenuous prediction on my part...but I have confidence in that prediction, nonetheless (tenuous confidence).

And you've picked the same name.

Admittedly, I just agree with your choice. I hadn't thought much about what name he would take before now, and, going over the possibilities, I felt that your choice was quite likely. Plus, I'm intrigued by the combination of "Pius" (which, of course, means "pious") and the number 13.

Originally posted by CLPrime
reply to post by FlyersFan

 

First, a couple honourable mentions:


Peter Turkson

A second favourite. But I don't see him getting a majority either, mainly because Benedict XVI has stacked the deck with Italians. Also, it happens often enough that the one or two most popular picks ultimately fail to get any significant votes.

[

It will be this guy. Or a 46 year old Latvian.

reply to post by FlyersFan


Hmmm....going for a long shot

During or in the lead up to conclave a supernatural entity presents themselves to the world...the Vatican announces that this is the returned Christ who's seat they have been warming while on Earth...This Christ ends up being Satan

thus, an outsider bet on Satan (although this event might occur as well early in the tenure of a new human pope as well)

However gets selected, the omens are looking pretty bad from my perspective

reply to post by FlyersFan


Thanks for the listing of the Canadian Cardinals. I mentioned to someone just a few minutes ago that if one of them is elected, he may take the name Pope Henri .

The name of the new pope will be an interesting choice. I shall predict he'll choose one which hasn't been used before, maybe an honoring of a woman saint in some way. This will be a man who has an interesting hidden side, someone who is very progressive in many ways but doesn't show it now. When he gets to be "The Man" he'll let his real self shine through, and will be much loved and honored. This guy could be a real saint in sheep's clothing. I feel very optimistic about the new Pope, even though I'm now a happily lapsed and chased-away catholic, but loved the saints as a child. Drew pictures of them and read everything about them, or at least drew a great picture of angels (I haven't thought of my angel picture since I attached it somehow to my bedroom wall as a child of maybe 8 or 9).

Thanks for a good thread.

My bet is on Cardinal Gianfranco Ravasi.

gut instinct

Originally posted by jam321
My bet is on Cardinal Gianfranco Ravasi.

For those who want to know more about Cardinal Ravasi, click here
I also think that it'll be back to an Italian this time.
The talking heads on the news are all ga-ga over perhaps a South American being picked.
But ... I dunno .... the deck is stacked in favor of the Italians ...

reply to post by jam321


I like that we're all giving different predictions. It would be boring if we all agreed. Plus, the more spread out we are, the better the chances are that one of us will be right.

And it's an indication of just how unsure the election is.

I'm leaning towards Scola for some reason.
2nd

What about Brazilian Cardinal Odilo Pedro Scherer, 63 yrs old? There's nothing "Roman" about him but Pedro is the Portuguese for Peter...en.m.wikipedia.org...