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POLITICS: 2 Polls That Have Never Been Wrong Predict Bush Victory.

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posted on Oct, 25 2004 @ 02:17 PM
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Two polls which are one of the steadiest predictors of who will win the Whitehouse are now out and both predict a Bush victory. Both polls are rather unorthodox and generally scientifically meaningless yet both have the uncanny ability to pick a president. One of the polls has been correct in the last 6 presidential elections and the other in the last 13.
 



sfgate.com

Forget the opinion polls, pundits and focus groups. If you really want to know who's going to win the presidential election, keep an eye on these far more reliable, time-tested indicators in the coming week......

Halloween masks: Sales figures for rubber masks of the candidates have foretold the winner of every election since 1980, according to costume sellers. In other words, the bigger freak usually wins......

Political markets: When in doubt, follow the money. A direct barometer of the candidates' prospects can be found on the Iowa Electronic Markets, where traders buy and sell political futures. The market has correctly predicted the winner in every election since 1988. Investors are currently slightly bullish on Bush, giving him about a 54 percent chance of winning.....


Please visit the link provided for the complete story.




The first of these polls is the Halloween Poll. The poll has been around since 1980 and has not been wrong since that time. The poll basically works by counting how many of each candidates masks are sold. Since 1980 the results of the poll are as follows:


  • 1980- Reagan 60% Carter 40%
  • 1984- Reagan 68% Mondale 32%
  • 1988- Bush 62% Dukakis 38%
  • 1992- Clinton 41% Bush 39%
  • 1996- Clinton 56% Dole 40%
  • 2000- Bush 57% Gore 43%


And this years poll has Bush leading 55% to 45% over John Kerry.

The second poll in question is the Weekly Reader poll which has predicted the correct presidential winner since 1956. The results of this poll released today give Bush 65% of the vote and Kerry 33%. Kerry only won one grade level that being the 10th grade with a margin of 57% to 39% and only carried one state, Maryland.


Weekly-Reader Poll Results


Another gauge on the presidential race that has never been wrong since the 88 election is the Iowa Electronic Markets. In this market traders buy into political futures and in this venue Bush leads 54% to 46%.

One more interesting indicator of who will win the Whitehouse is the Washington Redskins. In the past 18 elections if the Redskins win their last home game prior to the election the incumbent will retain the presidency. The game in question this year is October 31 versus the Green Bay Packers. With that tid-bit in mind Presidential candidate John Kerry has been quoted as saying "You're looking at the biggest cheesehead in America."


Source

sfgate.com


Related News Links:
www.buycostumes.com
www.weeklyreader.com


[edit on 25-10-2004 by Banshee]



posted on Oct, 25 2004 @ 02:41 PM
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Well, the red sox haven't won the world series since babe ruth cursed them, but if they keep playing like they've been playing they're gonna break another "never-been-broken" record.

Seriously, though, it's hard to take the halloween poll seriously; given how disliked bush is in certain circles you'd have to break off a chunk of the masks being bought as "anti-bush" masks, which makes the race look closer. Clinton in 1992 was just another candidate, but I'd also guess a similar phenomena worked in his favor in the 1996 halloween poll -- a certain amount of notoriety had attached to his name in some circles by then.

Also, if you look at the 2000 poll, it's right on the "winner" but wrong on the popular vote, which was closer to 49/49 of voters. I'd say what this poll does is probably measure how much the public perceives a particualr candidate as having a "strong public personality"; it probably says a lot about the american voting populace that that measure correlates so well with the winners of prior elections.

The other poll's more convincing, since i'm guessing most of the gradeschoolers are voting their parents' ticket; I'd be interested to see the demographcs of the school districts where the weekly reader poll is administered, though, because I know it wasn't administered at any of the schools I attended growing up, even though we got the weekly reader stuff in class a few years.



posted on Oct, 25 2004 @ 04:31 PM
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Interestingly enough in the Iowa Electronic Market, Bush has led the race since June.

128.255.244.60...



posted on Oct, 25 2004 @ 05:12 PM
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The self-proclaimed 'intuitive' claims that Bush will win in a landslide.
Of course, I think he is a loony. I do believe that Bush will win though.

www.coasttocoastam.com...



posted on Oct, 25 2004 @ 05:17 PM
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Does it really matter who wins? My opinion is that since both are 'skulls', the whole election is a sham...NWO no matter who wins.
But then again, I am a hopeless conspiracy nut and whatever I conceive in my purile common brain is just laughable anyways, right?

I'm bad...no soylent green for me tonight.




posted on Oct, 25 2004 @ 05:23 PM
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This is trash.

And, If halloween mask sales are anything to go by then Richard Nixon would win every year.



posted on Oct, 25 2004 @ 05:33 PM
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Originally posted by Nerdling
This is trash.

And, If halloween mask sales are anything to go by then Richard Nixon would win every year.


Actually, I think that honor would go to Senator Frederick Krueger- U, Elm Street



posted on Oct, 25 2004 @ 05:37 PM
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Originally posted by Nerdling
This is trash.


I will agree the Halloween poll is possibly just lucky but the Weekly Reader poll has to be something more than that to be correct for the last 56 years. There is something there.



posted on Oct, 25 2004 @ 05:41 PM
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Originally posted by BlackJackal

Originally posted by Nerdling
This is trash.


I will agree the Halloween poll is possibly just lucky but the Weekly Reader poll has to be something more than that to be correct for the last 56 years. There is something there.


You're clutching at straws.



posted on Oct, 25 2004 @ 05:44 PM
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I would rate the outcome of the Nickelodeon poll (100% correct since inception) much higher than any BS sporting coincidences or sales of halloween masks. And I know a few things about masks.




posted on Oct, 25 2004 @ 05:45 PM
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Originally posted by Nerdling
You're clutching at straws.


No not really, the vast majority of "scientific" polls have Bush ahead as well. So I would be willing to go on record and say that the Weekly Reader poll and the Halloween poll will be correct in this election as well

www.realclearpolitics.com...


MJ

posted on Oct, 25 2004 @ 05:51 PM
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oh ,, u left out the nickelodeon poll which has never been wrong. Their results are Kerry wins. or how about that one Pro Remote Viewer whos says Kerry will win. or ,, how about the OTHER Remote Viewer whos says Bush will win.. so much for remote viewers too. Bias remote viewing,, hmm did they teach that to gov too ?



posted on Oct, 25 2004 @ 05:52 PM
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Politopia Poll: Badnarik at 8.9%
Filed under: Polling, On the Internet

First a disclaimer: Im not sure how accurate this poll from Politopia is (its not one that weve asked you folks to vote in), but it does seem to reflect a more accurate representation of the Internets choice for president. You can read their polling method here. It seems pretty legit.

Anyways, corny disclaimer out of the way heres their latest poll results. You can also change the date period and see that the Badnarik turnout is not a recent anomaly for their poll:

36.8% - John F. Kerry (Democrat)
35.4% - George W. Bush (Republican)
10.3% - Other / Not Voting
8.9% - Michael J. Badnarik (Libertarian)
4.9% - Ralph Nader (Independent/Reform)
2.2% - David K. Cobb (Green Party)
1.5% - Michael A. Peroutka (Constitution Party)
Total Responses: 17199
Posted by Badnarik Blog Team @ 6:05 pm

www.politopia.com...
badnarik.org...



posted on Oct, 25 2004 @ 05:55 PM
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I left out Nickelodeon for two reasons


  • It was not included in the original article and I was not aware of it.
  • It has only been around since 1988 while the Weekly-Reader has been correct since 1956.



posted on Oct, 25 2004 @ 05:59 PM
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Uh Huh. You'll find that most of the numbers are within the margin of error which actually makes it a dead heat. Several have kerry above the margin of error.

120,000 in Philly can't be wrong.



Washington Post Tracking Poll -- among likely voters:
10/21-24/04
Bush:48 Kerry: 49

ABC News Tracking Poll -- among likely voters:
10/21-24/04
Bush: 48 Kerry: 49

Washington Post Tracking Poll -- among registered voters:
10/21-24/04
Bush: 46 Kerry: 48

ABC News Tracking Poll -- among registered voters:
10/21-24/04
Bush: 47 Kerry: 47


In Colorado, Kerry led 48-47 percent; Florida, Bush 48-47 percent; Iowa, Bush 47-44 percent; Michigan, Kerry 52-43 percent; Minnesota, Kerry 48-43 percent; New Mexico, Bush 50-42 percent; Nevada, Bush 50-44 percent; Ohio, Bush 46-45 percent; Pennsylvania, Kerry 48-45 percent; and Wisconsin, Bush 48-46 percent.

Of course, most young people never respond to polling and the cell phone generation heavily favours Kerry.



posted on Oct, 25 2004 @ 05:59 PM
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Originally posted by MJ
oh ,, u left out the nickelodeon poll which has never been wrong. Their results are Kerry wins.



I didn't leave it out. I specifically mentioned it, because the participants in the poll are better predictors than actual registered voters and they call it as they see it then the pollsters report it as they called it, no BS.

Ren & Stimpy for Pres & V-P.



posted on Oct, 25 2004 @ 06:11 PM
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Ooohhhhh Stimpy, didn't I tell you to put away the rubber nipples!!!! It will be all over Foxnews....


MJ

posted on Oct, 25 2004 @ 06:11 PM
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Originally posted by MaskedAvatar

Originally posted by MJ
oh ,, u left out the nickelodeon poll which has never been wrong. Their results are Kerry wins.



I didn't leave it out. I specifically mentioned it, because the participants in the poll are better predictors than actual registered voters and they call it as they see it then the pollsters report it as they called it, no BS.

Ren & Stimpy for Pres & V-P.

no, u mentioned the Weekly Reader Ploll and the Halloween Polll , no mention of the Nickelodeon poll whoose results show Kerry the winner. thats KERRY , not some fictious characters.



posted on Oct, 25 2004 @ 06:19 PM
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Seems the polls may not have predicted the winner of the last 6 and 13 presidential elections respectively: they got 2000 wrong, unless they included the Supreme Court in the poll results.



posted on Oct, 25 2004 @ 06:20 PM
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Alright Nerdling,

I have gone on record and stated my prediction for the winner of the presidential election. Are you willing to do the same and are you willing to put up a wager on the outcome?







 
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