SARS IS MORE DEADLY THAN WE HAD IMAGINED.

Got this of a website:
www.earthfiles.com...

Current Estimated SARS Mortality Rates:

- Patients over 60, the SARS death rate is 20%.

- Patients in Canada, SARS death rate is 13.6%

- Patients in Hong Kong, Beijing, and Singapore, SARS death rate rose from 4% to 10%.

Global average SARS death rate is 7%.

- Patients in the United States, so far death rate is 0%.

Influenza Mortality Rate:

- In general, worldwide influenza death rates are around 2%.

Interview:

Mark Jackwood, Ph.D., Professor of Avian Medicine, College of Veterinary Medicine, University of Georgia, Athens, Georgia:

Could SARS Become A Pandemic?

COULD THE OUT-OF-CONTROL SITUATION IN CHINA LEAD TO AN EXPLOSION BEYOND THE BORDER INTO ASIA AND EVENTUALLY GO INTO THE PANDEMIC STATE THAT EVERY ONE HAS WORRIED ABOUT AND TRIED TO PREVENT?

I think that's possible, but I've never traveled to China. I don't know the situation at the border, what kind of control that they have. It's a huge country and it's easy to believe that it could get out of hand quite easily with a virus that is this infectious. quite frankly, I think that's what everybody at W.H.O. and CDC are very scared about and China's ability to handle this. Apparently, from the news reports I've been reading, this is putting an extreme economic burden on that country.

IT'S COLLAPSED. BEIJING STREETS ARE EMPTY AND TODAY, THE OTHER NEWS IS THAT THEY HAVE RUN OUT OF BEDS. THEY DON'T HAVE THE HOSPITAL SUPPORT SYSTEM. THIS IS THE PUBLIC HEALTH NIGHTMARE.

It really is, isn't it?! The only thing I can tell you is how we try to combat and control this disease and the best way is to get a rapid diagnostic test, which I think we have worked out now. But that needs to be made available in the areas where the outbreaks are occurring. We need to monitor not just the sick people, but the healthy ones as well and find out where this virus is. Then quarantine and isolation system that we already have been attempting to put in place needs to be used religiously where that virus is detected. And that's not just in China. That's all over the world.

INCLUDING THE UNITED STATES.

Oh, yes, ma'am, including the United States. But the hinge in controlling this disease in my mind is the diagnostic test � to have that be extremely rapid and do it on across the board � test everyone you can get your hands on in an area where you suspect the virus is.

W.H.O. HAS BEEN TRYING TO DO THAT IN CHINA, BUT UNTIL LAST WEEK, THE GOVERNMENT WAS STILL HIDING SARS PATIENTS.

Well, that's the political issues I think I'm talking about. And just the logistics of going into a country like that with that many people and that widespread of an area and now you are saying people out in the country are having outbreaks. Boy! Can you imagine the logistical nightmare that would be to do what we've just talked about. Incredible!

Small part of article.



March 17 to May 1, 2003 increase in SARS cases.
Source: The New England Journal of Medicine.

Were in for a lot of trouble

Go to www.earthfiles.com... for more info


[Edited on 5/2/2003 by FoxStriker]

[Edited on 5/4/2003 by FoxStriker]

May 4, 2003 - Taiwan's SARS Cases Doubled This Week. Five More Deaths Were Announced Friday. W.H.O. Will Be Allowed By China to Investigate. SARS Patients' Relapses and Virus

SARS Current World Total:
6,234 cases and 435 deaths in 30 countries.

SARS in United States:
291 suspected, with 54 probable cases, in 38 states. No deaths.

at www.earthfiles.com...

How is this "deadly"?

And I don't see how Influenza death rates could always be so low, in the early 1900s 20million Americans died from Influenza.

So unless somehow magically 1billion Americans got sick with Influenza, one of your main points is tragically flawed.

What ever happend to the good posters who only posted stuff that was fairly solid.

You're making me into a damn debunker, I don't like being a debunker, debunkers aren't liked...but it is a necissary task for the good of all.

How can you be so hard headed, read what I put, the rest of the story is at

www.earthfiles.com...

You Debunked nothing, the rest of the articles will prove it.

I cant over-exceed the posting limit

I debunked you completely.

Death rates worth worrying about are 90% and 100%, not 10%.

Especially when the gestation period is not crucially long, if it had a gestation period of 6 months and a death rate of say 50% then there'd be something "deadly".

Right now you're just tooting your horn over a dog turd on your lawn.

Originally posted by HKoT
How is this "deadly"?

And I don't see how Influenza death rates could always be so low, in the early 1900s 20million Americans died from Influenza.

So unless somehow magically 1billion Americans got sick with Influenza, one of your main points is tragically flawed.

you're talking about the Spanish flu pandemic of 1918. if we want to compare the Spanish flu to SARS, the death rate was 2.5%. One fifth of the world's population was infected. SARS has infected far fewer people, but the death rate is estimated at anywhere from 4-14%. Should SARS begin to spread unchecked, it could be far deadlier than the Spanish flu. (which killed around 650,000 Americans, not 20 million. also, there aren't 1 billion Americans, even today. the US population is around 300 million)
I couldn't make this stuff up: www.stanford.edu...

edited for typos

[Edited on 5-4-2003 by MorningtonCrescent]

MorningtonCrescent- Good reply

As the virus mutates, it gets worst. So its expected to be worst and harder to Vaccinate.

well hkot technically it deppends on statistics, 10% is worth worrying about if your population is say 20billion people, i mean thats a hell of alot of deaths, i know the globe is only about 6.2 billion but if sars gets to about 25% fatality rate then it could become quite dangerous, i mean the more hospitalised people the more dangerous it gets as the healthcare decreases..

The flu kills more though yearly. Hope it wipes out the chinese

I don't know about killing the Chinese, but if it does kill them it will kill us as well. SARS is still mutating, I would expect it to get stronger.

Originally posted by HKoT
How is this "deadly"?

And I don't see how Influenza death rates could always be so low, in the early 1900s 20million Americans died from Influenza.

So unless somehow magically 1billion Americans got sick with Influenza, one of your main points is tragically flawed.

Where do you get your information, off a napkin at a run down bar???

It's nowhere near the statistics for regular, goodole pneumococcal pneumonia... the same kind of pneumonia that lots of people get in your town every year.

According to the WHO, pneumococcal pneumonia accounts for between 500,000 to 1.4 million deaths in the world every year.

www.aventispasteur.com...

Note... that ain't cases. That's DEATHS.

Look at the difference in statistics by country:

The mortality rate associated with pneumococcal infections is 1.7 per 100,000 in children below the age of 2 years. For those 65 years and older, this rate climbs to 5 per 100,000. Overall pneumococcal pneumonia mortality rates are estimated to be 11.5% in the United States and 22% in Canada

(same source)

Now -- if we're running and shrieking about SARS, we should be dong a LOT more screaming over regular pneumonia which is more common and more deadly.

An issue here that seems to be avoided is race. Its killing Asians, we knows this. But what about Canada? Were the SARS victims white, or asian? I ask because Im still toying with the possibility of this being an engineered virus specifically designed for one ethnic group. In the US, which has about 65% caucasians, 15% hispanic, 12% black, 8% other, there have been no deaths or reports of deaths, and only suspected SARS cases. Even though there is a huge asian population on the west coast. But what about the canadians whi died..all asians? If they were, and this virus is as contagious, with all the boat people we get over here on the west coast, any could carry the virus here. Thus, Id think ti would have spread farther, with deaths here. Europe has reported hardly anything over there, and they have few asians as well.

In India, who are of the South asian race, they said they thought they had SARS there, but havent found any real cases, and they are prone to normal epidemics. I find the outbreak of SARS awfully close to the rise of tension between us and North Korea. North Korea, who has threatened to use nukes against us, is more pressing threat than iraq, yet we are blowing them off. Is it because our govornment has already "dealt" with them?

I want to try and find info on the races of the victims, if they are all or almost entirely asian in race, then my suspicions will lean more towards another genetic virus engineered to target one group of people, much like aids and africa.

If they have indeed done this, then the true capabilities of the US military.biotech complex have pretty much reached a level of frightening advancement that even i couldnt have imagined.........

May 11, 2003 -

SARS Current World Total:
7,296 cases
526 deaths now in 33 countries and regions.

SARS in United States:
332 suspected
64 probable cases, in 38 states.
No deaths.

Skadi_the_Evil_Elf I agree with your statement, epidemics now a days should be easier to control than SARS. Its funny that the US has had SARS, but their is no information on the patients. Wonder if the US is making it up

i live in toronto the number of cases here as gone down actually

Its surprising, I have heard little of SARS in the news at all, here oin the US, when id think if they did exist......they would be big news.

So maybe, we either have alot more in the asian community........

or, since the country has few asians, we have none. Hide the number of SARS cases to blunt suspicion?

I havent seen any real data on the nature of SARS. I wonder how many North Koreans have it?

I see what you are saying elf. If this is true, then the end of the world is a lot closer then I thought. People who originally where infected with SARS, and appeared healthy, are now starting to re-develop symptoms of the virus. This shows that the body's anti-bodies are not working which is further proof of a very sophisticated virus-- perhaps bioengineered. The rapid mutation of SARS is like the problem with AIDS mutating, except SARS is transmited through the air which just makes this bad problem even worse.

Fox I wouldn't be using "Earthfiles" data. Or where ever their source is it is wrong.

Go directly to the "WHO" site for the most current data.

I don't know where you heard SARS is reoccurring omega1, it's not SARS, it's an immune response that they suffer from.

An over active immune system and so after release they have feavers again.

SARS still has 3 times the infection rate it had before quarantine and still is spreading into new provinces of china.

SARS isn't very deadly if treated, but I've currently been trying to find the information on handling capacities of Chinese facilities, my question is how many more patients can they recieve before they are treating so many people, that containment becomes difficult. And then how many can they recieve before there are so many sick, that treatment becomes difficult.

SARS is fairly undeadly as I said if treated, about 50% for people above 60, not much worth mentioning below that, but if not treated death from dehydration or starvation would be very common (This is what caused most of the deaths of the 1918 influenza pandemic).

HKoT you're wrong, sorta, you're assuming that the 25million was only in USA, it was world wide.

Influenza is about a 2% death rate, and SARS spreads quicker and longer than influenza, so if it were to escape you'd be looking at 10 times as many deaths world wide from the disease alone, and if the medical infrastructure should fail, probably another billion.

A few points.

SARS is not bioengineered, if it did come from the animal population Guangdong province is the most likely place where it would have started, and it did start there, because of their animal testing and scientific preperation facilities there.

SARS does not mutate like AIDS, SARS mutates like the cold, there are some 300 varients of the cold, AIDS mutates in the body purposefully to trick the immune system. Which is a different thing.

US isn't making up SARS cases, we're just waiting for confirmation.

Also the virus doesn't appear to favor any race, though it favors colder weathers. The Canadian patients I believe were all white.

Byrd, the reason SARS is so important to look at, is Pnuemonia doesn't always need to be treated, sometimes warm soup does the trick, it's a thorn in our side.

SARS kills 100% if you need to be hospitalized but aren't, and some 99% of the cases need to be Hospitalized.

That means without the 1st world medical infrastructure, you have a disease with a death rate of 90%, people dying in the streets from simply dehydration.

Also, as the disease mutates no one knows if it gets worse or better, so Fox that's a presumptuous thing to say.

Ok I think that about covers all the bad rumours here.

Now if you do want a scare in my research I prepared a conclusion that SARS could kill 4 billion on the planet if it became an uncontained completely.

SARS has so far shown to be spreading sparadically to people who had no relation or contact to those previously sick, so this means basically someone taking a crap in a public bathroom 2 weeks later.

If SARS were to put such a burden on our medical facilities, you could expect everyone to get sick, almost all 6billion people, excluding the more remote areas.

But remember, SARS is a very burdensome disease, so far only 43% recovery rate.

Don't focus on Death rates, death rates are a failure of the BEST of medicine, which is why they are so low, as of right now 57% of those administered to hospitals are still there, and most of the deaths are the oldest cases.

So as you can see SARS can put a HUGE burden on the hospitals, which is why I fear if SARS isn't stopped, not just contained but stopped, it'll eventually escape and before we know it, a pandemic will begin. In which people will more likely die in bed from not getting any food more than from the actual disease.

When I get the handling capacities of the medical facilities by country I can try and let you know, we'd be no different from the third world if those handling capacities were breached by too much. And this is a 3rd world killer for sure. The inability to treat it means certain death for almost all ages.

Here's an incomplete list of the infection rates for your amusement. I don't have all the days, I was doing a spread to see if the infection rates were generally on the decline or on the up, I think they're still on the up, WHO does post a rate curve current to May 2nd but they've recently been saying they are better containing it but I'm not so optomistic.

----------------------------------------------------------------------

1) 41

2) 85

3) 77

4) 72

5) 83

6) 63

7) 85

8) 70

9) 51

10) 63

11)

12) 213

13) 66

14) 72

15)

16)

17)

18) 158

19) 210

20) 190

21) 214

22) 226

23) 211

24) 226

25) 211

26) 212

27) 226

28) 207

29) 191

30) 364

31) 153

32) 186

33) 144

34) 119

35) 184

[COLOR=Red]*EDIT* Some important info about USA though.

Total Suspected cases of SARS: 279
Total Probable Cases of SARS: 64

Probable means that the symptoms are SARS related, and that they very well may have it.

Suspect means they have a few of the symptoms with no real evidence more than that.

[Edited on 13-5-2003 by ELSFAW]

If we look at the dates of the first postings here, we can see that the prophecies have yet to be fulfilled.
The advice to check on the WHO is certainly the most reliable.
Just what SARS is remains open to question, at present: there is still no single indisputable answer.

And many more people are dying of cholera: but no one cares very much.

Certainly SARS is NOT the headline news it was and it will be amusing in 3-4 weeks to review SARS-based postings and set up a "Credulity League".
Incidentally, it is wise to bear in mind that "new" cases are very often rather old cases that the authorities have finally got round to reporting.