The Great British Exit gaining momentum.

It seems from what I am reading people are moving away from all the talk of a Grexit and now focusing on the possible "Great British Exit or Brexit"

It's summed up in a quote from Philip Whyte of the CER:

"Three views of the UK are now common across Europe: that it is unreliable and unconstructive; that it is an active distraction from solving the region's worst crisis since World War Two; and that it appears to be heading for the EU's exit door"

and one interesting document of the Great Brexit comes from the Japanese bank Normura

“The core point is that the eurozone may have to take drastic steps in integration (fiscal union, etc) to save the euro, making it nigh impossible for a fully sovereign state to remain part of the Project. In other words, it is not so much Britain leaving the EU as the EU leaving the treaty-based club of sovereign states it was supposed to be.”

The full Nomura report can be found here

Where it seems all discussion about a Grexit was a 2 sided in/out affair, the discussions on the Brexit seem to be moving to a one sided discussion that considers a Brexit is highly probable and almost beneficial to both sides.

Some thoughts and concerns run through my head as to what impact this will have on Ireland, which could become Isolated from the EU.

Another is how such a move might affect the referendum in Scotland, i.e would it have a positive impact on the no campaign?

I am sure there are many more, but it seems to me in this instance there is a growing view that as the EU moves closer in Union the UK is seen to be exiting stage left.

Personally I think this would be good not just for the UK but also for Europe as we really do appear to be going in different directions.

I am however deeply sceptical that it would be good for Ireland who could be seen more on the fringe and isolated from the rest of the EU.

The Eu is a totally different beast to what we, the people in the UK, were asked to agree to join back in 1973. It is only fair, given the sheer amount of changes and the direction they wish to travel in, that we get asked once again.

If the people do want to be part of an EU superstate, then so be it, be we shouldn't be forced into it to fix a financial problem not of our making and hand over power to a Franco-German block. I find it quite offensive and worrying that other EU member states see us as a "problem" member, when in actuality we seem to be one of the few nations still interested in retaining control over our own country by elected officials, not mandarins sat in their ivory tower.

I for one would sign for an EU superstate in a heart beat, but only if there was full and proper democracy from top to bottom. The way it is set up now makes it little better than the Soviet Union.

reply to post by stumason


As you might know Stu I've spent years implementing EU directives across Europe working with many member states and the people of those nations, from the core nations to the fringes, and over the years I have found we all have one thing in common, which is viewing the EU as an undemocratic beast, of wanting to see the EU transformed into something better, and exiting the Union if that is not possible.

So It seems strange that while they hold similar views on the nature of the EU and direction it is taking that I am the one labelled in a negative fashion as the "little Englander", a badge I now wear with some pride.

Putting that to one side, it does seem as though a Brexit could be around the corner..

Perhaps at that point we might be able to get our own house in order.. *eyes Westminster*

Originally posted by stumason
The Eu is a totally different beast to what we, the people in the UK, were asked to agree to join back in 1973. It is only fair, given the sheer amount of changes and the direction they wish to travel in, that we get asked once again.

If the people do want to be part of an EU superstate, then so be it, be we shouldn't be forced into it to fix a financial problem not of our making and hand over power to a Franco-German block. I find it quite offensive and worrying that other EU member states see us as a "problem" member, when in actuality we seem to be one of the few nations still interested in retaining control over our own country by elected officials, not mandarins sat in their ivory tower.

I for one would sign for an EU superstate in a heart beat, but only if there was full and proper democracy from top to bottom. The way it is set up now makes it little better than the Soviet Union.

I agree, the idea of the EU superstate is brilliant. We have the potential economy to become the world leader. I'm pro Europe but things need changing, we don't want to be exploited by the Franco-German block.

This may leave a bad taste it peoples mouth's but Tony Blair president of the European Union would keep British interests.

reply to post by tdk84

Sorry to say it but Tony Blair for head of the European Union? Have you lost your mind? The man should be put on trial for war crimes.

Sorry for my ignorance, but what would be the the difference between a superstate and a federal state? Does one assume giving up national sovereignty. Becoming like a European version of the USA?

Originally posted by Todzer
reply to post by tdk84

 

Sorry to say it but Tony Blair for head of the European Union? Have you lost your mind? The man should be put on trial for war crimes.

Thats what I said may leave a bad taste in people mouths, but the fact is he's probably one of the few Brits that could get the job and obviously keep UK interests.

Its not like its a daft notion either as its constantly being brought up. No doubt inevitable if we remain in the EU.

Only last month their was another rumour. link

reply to post by tdk84


Sounds pretty awful to me. Every time I see his face I hurl abuse at the tv. He s ne of the most reprehensible individuals to ever represent this country.

Originally posted by woodwardjnr
reply to post by tdk84

 

Sounds pretty awful to me. Every time I see his face I hurl abuse at the tv. He s ne of the most reprehensible individuals to ever represent this country.

lol true, but would he not do the job for the UK? I hate to think it but he's one of the better options if we were to stay in the EU.

Originally posted by woodwardjnr
Sorry for my ignorance, but what would be the the difference between a superstate and a federal state? Does one assume giving up national sovereignty. Becoming like a European version of the USA?

There are two main types of state Unitary (eg UK and China) and Federal (USA and Russia) (there are a couple of others like Confederation, Hegemony and Imperial) A Unitary state has one central government, even if it has self government regions these can still be over ruled by the central government, where as a Federal state is a union of partially governing States.

Personally I don't think it clear which direction the EU heading towards, it could be a Unitary state with Brussels at it's head or towards being a Federal state, I guess, depending on leadership it could end up being an Imperial state just as easily, there is the history there to make that kind of transition possible.

Originally posted by tdk84

I agree, the idea of the EU superstate is brilliant. We have the potential economy to become the world leader. I'm pro Europe but things need changing, we don't want to be exploited by the Franco-German block.

Things definitely need changing. It was only last week that they came out with their statements on reforms. I will try to find it again to post here but the gist of it was that budget reform and scrutiny of the accounts were "too difficult and a waste of time" for staff members who already do a difficult job! By the way, the bits in speech marks are direct quotes from the member quoted!

As to the Franco-German block, that won't be too strong soon. They have polar opposite approaches to how to fix the financial problems within the EU. France want to spend, Germany wants to slash and cut. The problem for France being that since Hollande took power, French business has tanked and is currently in pretty dire straits. Businesses are exiting the country left right and centre and those that are left are warning of a full implosion due to the tax measures being implemented - and rather than the usual business scaremongering tactic, the stats seem to back them up. If this continues (and there is no reason to suspect it will change any time soon), France will be an economic basket case and in no position to influence EU policy. After all, when Germany is finally left in the position it always feared (paying for literally everything), why should it listen to any other states on what policy to pursue?

My own position is once again rather conflicted. I love the idea of Britain remaining a sovereign nation, in charge of its own destiny. I also love the idea of a EU superpower - 4000 plus years of conflict makes them family! I guess my ideal would be a Brit - Nordic - Germanic led EU as i truly think this would be far better run and far more efficient (and fair). I was going to say it will never happen though but on reflection, maybe i only need Hollande to get re-elected next time round!

Originally posted by tdk84

Originally posted by stumason
The Eu is a totally different beast to what we, the people in the UK, were asked to agree to join back in 1973. It is only fair, given the sheer amount of changes and the direction they wish to travel in, that we get asked once again.

If the people do want to be part of an EU superstate, then so be it, be we shouldn't be forced into it to fix a financial problem not of our making and hand over power to a Franco-German block. I find it quite offensive and worrying that other EU member states see us as a "problem" member, when in actuality we seem to be one of the few nations still interested in retaining control over our own country by elected officials, not mandarins sat in their ivory tower.

I for one would sign for an EU superstate in a heart beat, but only if there was full and proper democracy from top to bottom. The way it is set up now makes it little better than the Soviet Union.

I agree, the idea of the EU superstate is brilliant. We have the potential economy to become the world leader. I'm pro Europe but things need changing, we don't want to be exploited by the Franco-German block.

This may leave a bad taste it peoples mouth's but Tony Blair president of the European Union would keep British interests.

The problem is the Franco-German block trying to sort out their relationship..

You have to remember that the French Prime Minister approached Britain in the mid 1950s (Suez crisis) to form an Franco-British Union, that was turned down (this time) by us (the time before the French turned down such a union) after which the French signed the treaty of Rome with Germany and laid the foundations of the EU.

It seems from history 2 is company (Franco-British, Anglo-German, Franco-German) and 3 is defiantly a crowd and simply does not seem to work, as the two will always gang up on the 3rd member, at the moment they are ganging up more often than not against Britain.

Rightly or wrongly it seems they are going in a different direction to Britain and I can't help but feel at times that a spell of "Splendid Isolation" might be the tonic that Britain and the continent needs for us all to work through our problems *eyes Westminster*

Things definitely need changing. It was only last week that they came out with their statements on reforms. I will try to find it again to post here but the gist of it was that budget reform and scrutiny of the accounts were "too difficult and a waste of time" for staff members who already do a difficult job! By the way, the bits in speech marks are direct quotes from the member quoted!

As to the Franco-German block, that won't be too strong soon. They have polar opposite approaches to how to fix the financial problems within the EU. France want to spend, Germany wants to slash and cut. The problem for France being that since Hollande took power, French business has tanked and is currently in pretty dire straits. Businesses are exiting the country left right and centre and those that are left are warning of a full implosion due to the tax measures being implemented - and rather than the usual business scaremongering tactic, the stats seem to back them up. If this continues (and there is no reason to suspect it will change any time soon), France will be an economic basket case and in no position to influence EU policy. After all, when Germany is finally left in the position it always feared (paying for literally everything), why should it listen to any other states on what policy to pursue?

My own position is once again rather conflicted. I love the idea of Britain remaining a sovereign nation, in charge of its own destiny. I also love the idea of a EU superpower - 4000 plus years of conflict makes them family! I guess my ideal would be a Brit - Nordic - Germanic led EU as i truly think this would be far better run and far more efficient (and fair). I was going to say it will never happen though but on reflection, maybe i only need Hollande to get re-elected next time round!

Perhaps Germanys policy on slash and cut will bring them closer with the UK, Cameron is mister slash and cut.

Thought this was a thread on a mass exodus of poles and Kurdistans leaving The shores for a second!

Originally posted by Flavian

Originally posted by tdk84


I agree, the idea of the EU superstate is brilliant. We have the potential economy to become the world leader. I'm pro Europe but things need changing, we don't want to be exploited by the Franco-German block.

Things definitely need changing. It was only last week that they came out with their statements on reforms. I will try to find it again to post here but the gist of it was that budget reform and scrutiny of the accounts were "too difficult and a waste of time" for staff members who already do a difficult job! By the way, the bits in speech marks are direct quotes from the member quoted!

As to the Franco-German block, that won't be too strong soon. They have polar opposite approaches to how to fix the financial problems within the EU. France want to spend, Germany wants to slash and cut. The problem for France being that since Hollande took power, French business has tanked and is currently in pretty dire straits. Businesses are exiting the country left right and centre and those that are left are warning of a full implosion due to the tax measures being implemented - and rather than the usual business scaremongering tactic, the stats seem to back them up. If this continues (and there is no reason to suspect it will change any time soon), France will be an economic basket case and in no position to influence EU policy. After all, when Germany is finally left in the position it always feared (paying for literally everything), why should it listen to any other states on what policy to pursue?

My own position is once again rather conflicted. I love the idea of Britain remaining a sovereign nation, in charge of its own destiny. I also love the idea of a EU superpower - 4000 plus years of conflict makes them family! I guess my ideal would be a Brit - Nordic - Germanic led EU as i truly think this would be far better run and far more efficient (and fair). I was going to say it will never happen though but on reflection, maybe i only need Hollande to get re-elected next time round!

I mentioned earlier in the thread that I have spent a number of years implementing EU directives across Europe, which has meant at times working closely with how each member state translates a directive into national law and then I implement processes based on that translation.

The northern states, those North of France tend to do things as they are written albeit with little quirts and national sense of humour *eyes Britain* that transposes an 8 page directive in 80 pages of waffle! or lack of a sense of humour *eyes Germany* that turns it into 4 pages of instructions.. while the further South you go towards the Med the further from the directive you get and the more messy legalese and you end up needing a raft of legal experts and a wall to bang your head against to unsuccessfully implement the simplest directives *eyes France*.

There is a huge line.. and anyone who has worked in this area knows there is a huge North/South divide the key issue for me is that the directives seem to favour those in the North, costs little to implement while it costs those in the South a fortune to implement and they spend their time trying to wrangle their way out, which is partially why we are where we are today.

A North South Split could work, however I highly doubt any of those in Brussels would want to give up their hegemony over the Southern States, which really leaves a Brexit while they sort that out one way of the other.

Living in Ireland now, i too share the same intrigue as to what a British exit of the EU would mean............?

Currently over here, those in charge are trying to convince Merkel to make Ireland a 'special case' when looking at the €65 Billion loan.............. in all honesty, that loan will never be re-paid because of the way Ireland's society is set-up....Radical changes have to be made here.........

However aligning Ireland with the UK is possibly a stronger position to be in both from a european and global perspective for BOTH countries........

one other quick point is a comment on radio this morning referencing the ''special case'' for Ireland........... someone texted in the show and said the only reason Ireland should be treated as a ''special case'' is becuase of the dim witted, self interested dumbo's in charge of government................ ha ha ha made me laugh because it's true.....

reply to post by tdk84

Why would a super state be "brilliant"?

The EU has been a disaster. Somehow adding more countries is supposed to be helpful?

Not only is it a horrible idea, but the current EU needs to be dismantled so that one nation's debt crisis doesnt sink the entire ship.

Ireland and every other nation should have followed Iceland's example. They rejected the bank offered solutions, declared bankruptcy and started over.

And theyre doing great for having done it.

Countries world wide need MORE sovereignty, not less. And we need to control our money, not be slaves of the Rothschild debt based central banking scheme.

Originally posted by PurpleDog UK
Living in Ireland now, i too share the same intrigue as to what a British exit of the EU would mean............?

Currently over here, those in charge are trying to convince Merkel to make Ireland a 'special case' when looking at the €65 Billion loan.............. in all honesty, that loan will never be re-paid because of the way Ireland's society is set-up....Radical changes have to be made here.........

However aligning Ireland with the UK is possibly a stronger position to be in both from a european and global perspective for BOTH countries........

one other quick point is a comment on radio this morning referencing the ''special case'' for Ireland........... someone texted in the show and said the only reason Ireland should be treated as a ''special case'' is becuase of the dim witted, self interested dumbo's in charge of government................ ha ha ha made me laugh because it's true.....

haha.. that made me smile... one of the reasons I brought up the question of Ireland is that I worked in IT and Telecoms for Global Companies, and my job was to revamp their processes and align them with EU directives, hence poking my nose into so many EU countries and implementing EU directives.

What strikes me is that the goods come into Ireland, and then shipped to Britain and distributed throughout Britain. From Britain they are then shipped to the continent and then distributed throughout Europe, the revere logistics is the same.. and this covers approx 500,000 product lines and we (the corp I worked for) act as the manufacturer (for about 50 OEMs) in the marketplace i.e the EU.

Now if thy UK was to pull out of the EU how is that going to work? the over land route through Britain (a non EU country) might become an Issue and it also begs the question why would those Asian and North American Companies still send goods to facilities in Ireland that are destined for the Continent and Britain?

I do wonder what happens to Ireland if that particular daisy chain was to break?

Would one of you please address the issue of the UK staying out of the Euro in the first place? Seems to me that the UK is only quasi-EU in this regard, retaining its own currency, yet participating in other ways, i.e.: succumbing to EU trade edicts. Any thoughts?

Originally posted by woodwardjnr
Sorry for my ignorance, but what would be the the difference between a superstate and a federal state? Does one assume giving up national sovereignty. Becoming like a European version of the USA?

There is no difference, an EU Superstate would essentially be Federalism. The last truly sovereign thing a state can give up is control of it's finances. The EU will levy taxes, deflate and inflate the currency, direct funds where it sees fit, and absorb wealth via tax and fee from all nations to be part of a Federal budget.

For some people that would be perfectly fine.. I don't really get why anyone would willingly want to destroy their sovereign powers though?