I didn't vote for Bush in 2000 and I won't vote for him in 2004.
That said, I believe he won the popular vote in Florida; and, according to the newspapers, every recount scheme requested or talked about would've
kept Bush's plurality, although in a couple of cases it would've been awfully small.
But it's irrelevant; Bush is President and will probably be until 2008, and Al Gore will probably never be elected President of anything.
The only polling I pay attention to is the Rasmussen Poll (www.rasmussenreports.com...
); they've been right almost every time over the past
As of today, with new respondents and polls taken after the last debate, here is what they're saying :
"The Presidential debates are over and the election is just two-and-a-half weeks away. The latest Rasmussen Reports Presidential Tracking Poll
shows President George W. Bush with 49% of the vote and Senator John Kerry with 46%. The Tracking Poll is updated daily by noon Eastern.
Voters surveyed last night declared the third and final debate a tie, with fans of each candidate thinking their man won. The number of voters who
prefer Bush over Kerry on both national defense and the economy has returned to the levels that existed before the first debate."
Rasmussen also predicts a presidential election by determining which states (on a daily basis) lean towards Bush or lean towards Kerry; and then use
those states' electoral votes to provide insights as to how the electoral vote will go.
With 538 electoral votes up for grabs, those states which lean Bush comprise 240 electoral votes; those which lean Kerry comprise 194. It requires
270 electoral votes to win, the balance (nine states with 104 electoral votes) are too close to call.
Those states comprise: Colorado (9), Iowa (7), Michigan (17), Minnesota (10), Nevada (5), New Mexico (5), Ohio (20), Pennsylvania (21), and Wisconsin
If these states hold to their present course (and we can't say for sure that they will), then -- realistically -- if President Bush carries just
of the remaining big three (Ohio, Pennsylvania, or Michingan), he will be re-elected.
As of yesterday at noon EST, the poll in Florida
showed Bush 51%, Kerry 47%.
Again, I did not vote for Bush last time and this time either. But I feel pretty confident in making three statements:
1. Kerry cannot win
2. Bush can lose
3. He probably won't