TA-ANALYSIS: Delhi on Nuke Terror Alert

India"s capitol of New Delhi is on alert for possible nuclear terrorism. Sources believe that Al Qaida has assembled a nuclear device with materials stolen from Iraq and using the expertise of Pakistani nuclear engineers.



Most of this information is based on the IAEA"s report of missing nuclear facilities and equipment from Iraq. The conclusion that Pakistan would use Al Qaida to attack India by proxy using a nuclear device, may not be that far fetched. Al Qaida may be more then willing to attack India over Kashmir.

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Well, I guess even india wants to cash on the terrorist scare now, hummm Al-Qaida making nukes on the road, that is something to see.

YEp would be humorus ........... wait do this......... oops...... BOOOM !!!

Sorry, I don't find this at all amusing, I think these are serious issues that need to be investigated. Scary - yes, humorous - no

Is it possible, sure, is it probable-no.

If they were to do that, all Muslims-I know only a small percent are terrorists- would be suspected, hated and attacked in mass by militaries and civilians alike.

It could cause a nuclear war between Pakistan and India. This would cause China and Russia to get upset-no one wants nukes going off near its boarder. It would tend to polarize the world-Muslim vs. nonmuslium even more than it is now.

If Al-Qaeda doesn't like the way Palestinians and Muslims of the Middle East are treated now-just wait till something like this.

Mrmonsoon... you are thinking. Al-qaida doesn't think, it just acts.
If al-qaida has the capability to kill millions of infidels, they will do
it and the consequences be darned. They don't think about
international relations or what happens next ... they just smell
the blood.

The problem with this story is that it is not so easy to make a nuclear bomb. It takes sophisticated equipment, highly refined materials and near perfect manufacturing processes to produce an implosion capable of triggering a nuclear explosion. THis is not the kind of thing you can cook up in a house or apartment somewhere, even if you have all the proper raw materials. Pakistan could conceivably manufacture the nuke for AQ but the ramifications of that would be catastrophic for Pakistan since India is 5 times Pakistan's size and population and posesses at least compatible tech if not better tech. Bottom line, while AQ could produce a dirty bomb from what they stole they could not produce a Nuclear bomb without direct state support and everyone knows it. Far more likely is that they purchase or steal a Russian or Ex Soviet device and set it off.

It is also Highly unlikely that they would attack Delhi because Delhi has a large muslim minority living there and the neighboring province has a muslim majority which could be affected by the fallout of a nuclear explosion. Muslims killing faithful muslims means no vigins for you in paradise.

Well, this story caught me by suprise. I'm interested in seeing what other news sources pick up on this. I'm curious as to how/if they are going to run with it...

I slightly disagree with Flyers though. I do believe that Al-Q would act on any opportunity to kill a large number of "infidels". My belief is that they really do want something like this. Nuclear or however, they want a something large scale, and spectacular if at all possible.

But, I think it is underestimating Al-Qaeda to say they don't think about things like international relations or what happens next. I firmly believe that they do ( at some level in the organization) think about things like that. They attempt to sway international action and opinion. The effectiveness varies, but the intent is there. If anything, for larger scale operations, they are overly meticulous in intelligence gathering, planning, etc. It would thus be easy to make the premise that these types of attacks are analyzed for possible results, and designed for maximum impact socio-politically.

All that being said...If they *do* get WMD, I have no doubt they will use them, at the earliest possible opportunity. ( with necessary planning)

Just my take on it. I'm really wondering what the U.S press is going to make of this.

edit: Good point regarding Delhi, Johannmon. This is one of the reasons this sorta blindsided me. Surely there are better targets with fewer Muslims. My other thought would be that something as "valuable" and difficult to obtain etc. as a nuclear weapon would be used elsewhere, should they actually aquire one. Because I do agree with the other post moments ago, they aren't going to manufacture one themselves. It's gotta come from somewhere.

[edit on 14-10-2004 by TCR]

Originally posted by Johannmon
The problem with this story is that it is not so easy to make a nuclear bomb. It takes sophisticated equipment, highly refined materials and near perfect manufacturing processes to produce an implosion capable of triggering a nuclear explosion.

That is my point Al-Qaida cannot be making nukes by the side of the road on in the desert without serious consequences, yes we should be taking this seriously but, not because I see Al-qaida making a nuke but because is so hidden meaning on the allegations of India.

They have nuclear capabilities they are bringing Pakistan into this and they are enemies and Pakistan also have nuclear capabilities.

Yes we should take the hint of it very seriously.

With the long standing tensions between Pakistan and India, with the daily attacks in Kashmir, with Osama's own statements on Kashmir, and with the large numbers of Pakistanis who support Osama and his cause, I don't see the scenario as being implausable.

Let's not forget Dr. A.Q. Khan. With the technical support of him and others like him, this could well be done. Using nuclear materials from Iraq would make it more difficult to trace it directly back to Pakistan, even if it was assembled there.

What was Osama's take on Kashmir, Phreak? I completely missed it. I assume he wasn't particularly happy with the way things were there?

Kashmir is one of the top ten dangerous places, or was a couple years ago. Shelling back and forth nearly daily, or used to be. Haven't kept up as well as I should.

Originally posted by deeprivergal
Sorry, I don't find this at all amusing, I think these are serious issues that need to be investigated. Scary - yes, humorous - no

I agree, its funny when its not in the US? India, has a right to be free of terror.

Any right thinking mind would be afraid of pankistain and their conection with AK . France (the arm pit of the `free world` ) has been helping them build long range silent deisel subs as we speak . They have two now and are now building there own. Each will be capable of deploying nukes> THIS IS BAD I will add a link to this later.

The detonation of a real nuke on anyones soil (not a dirty bomb) will ultimately give away the fact that a nuclear power must have provided material assistance to the terrorists who detonated the nuke. Nuclear weapons are not easy to make and require machining tools of an intensly tight precision, combined with significant knowledge of the blast forces and reaction rates. The close specifications required to make a functional nuclear weapon require significant testing and adjustment before they produce a reasonable reaction rate.

If a nuke is detonated by terrorists in the near future we will know one of two things...

1) The terrorists received significant support from a nuclear cabable nation to produce the device.

2) The terrorists purchased a previously engineered device from a nuclear power.

Such a situation sets up a scenario similar to what was demonstrated in The Sum of All Fears where a race is on to prove that, even though the radiological signature from a blast points to a source of the device, the device was not under the control of the manufacturer when it was detonated.

Hope we don't retalitorily nuke the wrong folks...

Originally posted by TCR
What was Osama's take on Kashmir, Phreak? I completely missed it. I assume he wasn't particularly happy with the way things were there?

Kashmir is one of the top ten dangerous places, or was a couple years ago. Shelling back and forth nearly daily, or used to be. Haven't kept up as well as I should.

I looked for a bit, and I found this quote from one of his tapes. This is similar to other statements he has made about Kashmir.

Osama bin Laden
Our brothers in Kashmir have been subjected to the worst forms of torture for over 50 years. They have been massacred, killed, and raped. Their blood has been shed and their houses have been trespassed upon.

I found this on this page from the BBC.
Basically, he sees the situation in Kashmir as similar to the situation in the West Bank. They believe the land should be a part of Pakistan, and that the Hindu-Infidels are killing muslim to take their land.

Osama bin Laden
Our brothers in Kashmir have been subjected to the worst forms of torture for over 50 years. They have been massacred, killed, and raped. Their blood has been shed and their houses have been trespassed upon.

so I shall kill them all with a nuclear blast.


unfortunately, muslim extremists feel that any muslim that doesn't conform to the same rigid beliefs is an ifidel. Many of the muslims living in the middle east are deemed infidels in the eyes of the wahabbists.

Originally posted by Crakeur
unfortunately, muslim extremists feel that any muslim that doesn't conform to the same rigid beliefs is an ifidel. Many of the muslims living in the middle east are deemed infidels in the eyes of the wahabbists.

Exactly! They won't worry much about killing Indian muslims, because, in their eyes, they are not true muslims.

Another thing to consider... If AQ has a nuke, their going to want to use it. It was probably produced in Pakistan, or at least stored near by. They are not going to want risking being caught before they can use it. I am betting that the Pakistan-India border won't be too difficult to sneak it across. One way or another.

Talk about getting the most bang for your buck...
If India is struck, I would wager that they will blame Pakistan, rightly or not, and then retaliate in kind.

Now if your an apocolyptic madman, what better way to fire off the end of the world then starting a nuclear war between these two countries?

If Al-quedia have managed by some means to get their greedy little hands on a nuke, why would they nuke india and not the us or use it in Iraq,

God forbid that india get's nuked but i don't see this happening, more than likely this is a just anthor case of scare mongering by the india goverment.

IMO Muslim extremists have a better a chance of using a Nuke on India and due to the long history of terrorism between extremists in the area, it is no surprise to me that they would want to attack India.

Originally posted by jayjay2910
If Al-quedia have managed by some means to get their greedy little hands on a nuke, why would they nuke india and not the us or use it in Iraq,

Exactly, why to waste a nuke in in a third world country when they can make have more casualties and destrution in a big citie in US, UK or Spain.

Please, if India gets nuke they are going to blame Pakistan and then we are going to se the real fireworks lighting the sky.