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Noth Korea and the Elections

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posted on Oct, 13 2004 @ 07:00 PM
I read this article and its not too reassuring on what will happen with North Korea in the near future. What you all think?

Kim Jong Il's Take on Crisis Coming to a Head

Some experts in Washington and other capitals voice their expection that a new US administration will bring the Korean nuclear crisis to a head, putting the North Koreans on notice that they are miscalculating by refusing to attend the fourth round of the six-party talks.. They expect that the new American government will take a harder line on North Korea by applying further diplomatic and military pressure to bear upon on Pyongyang. The US will seek to bring the Korean nuclear crisis before the UN Security Council, calling for UN sanctions.

According to Kim Jong Il, those experts, however, seem to be oblivious that the Americans are no longer in a position to call the shots and dictate the course of events. In short, whatever American policy proposal is doomed from the beginning, unless it wins his approval. Military tensions are bound to play into the hands of the savvy North Korean master of power politics.

Kim Jong Il sees the bid of the new American government to bring the Korean crisis to a head as another vitally needed ammunition to reveal the true colors of the US as a destroyer of peac and aggressor in the eyes of the Korean public and the world public. The expected American behavior will go a long way toward justifying the North Korean nuclear arsenal and the first use of nuclear weapons by the panicked and terrified North Koreans against the US mainland, not to mention Japan proper. The Japanese and South Korean governments and peoples must face real risks of their booming ecomonies evaporating in less than an hour as a result of American military action.

The Metropolitan US will face prospects of all-consuming nuclear conflagration, materialization of The Day After scenario. Live broadcast around the world will be scenes of skyscrapers in Manhattan, New York, Chicago, Los Angeles, and San Francisco turning into towering infernos. Needless to say, the North Koreans will find their country under full-scale nuclear attacks from the US. They don't care. (see my book Kim Jong Il's Nuclear Conspiracy for details of Kim Jong Il's scenario for nuclear exchange with the US)

Failure on the part of the new US administration to go to war will most likely prompt Japan and South Korea to go nuclear, making the American nuclear umbrella over the two countries irrelevant: the American forces will have to leave the two countries to Guam, Hawaii and the US mainland. In other words, the US will be a fallen angel, banished from the most coveted spot of the world's sole superpower. This situation is almost as good as a peace treaty in that the American military presence in South Korea is neutralized and removed.

What distinguishes Kim Jong Il from the past, present and future American presidents is that he was born, brought up and has lived in those hostile and rigorous circumstances that the Americans can little imagine. He was born at a remote deep forest of Mt. Paekdu in the dead of cold winter, then moved to Siberia, then returned to Pyongyang, survived the Korean War and personally led the four rounds of major military confrontations with the U.S. Each time the US backed down.

Both the DPRK and the US are highly militarized states, but the DPRK is every respect a fortress state, while the US has too many soft spots, making the US mainland highly vulnerable to missile and nuclear attacks. In the opinion of Kim Jong Il, the DPRK population can be easily evacuated into deep underground facilities, while there is no sheltering the American population. The North Korean people are well used to many years of austerity, while the Americans are not.

As almost everybody knows, both Clinton and Bush evaded being drafted into Vietnam. Cheney is also an effective draft dodger. So is Wolfowitz. That's why Bush goes an extraordinary length of looking like a military leader by putting on a pilot's gear.

With history as a guide to the future DPRK-US showdowns, Kim Jong Il understands that the US has little chance of winning. Never do the American remember winning any confrontation, military and diplomatic, with the North Koreans. t is relevant to recall that the US suffered its first military debacle in the Korean War despite their victories over Japan and Germany. There is no stopping a massive, nuclear retaliation against the Metropolitan US. The result is a deep-rooted inferiority complex to the North Koreas, giving rise to a new law governing international relations. The Americans will have to back down in a showndown with the North Koreans.

In 1968 Johnson had to order his huge military force to retreat quietly from the confrontion by offering an official apology for the incursion of USS Pueblo into the territorial waters of the DPRK. That time three aircraft carriers were mobilized but ordered withdrawn. In 1969 Nixon had to give up any idea of retaliation againt North Korea for shooting down the US spy plane EC-121. Secretary of Defense Laird urged Nixon not to strike North Korea, warning that the US would risk suffering disastrous losses. Four aircraft carriers were mobilized but the US backed down. In 1976 what the US government of Ford was able to was to cutting down the poplar tree with a chainsaw for the brutal killing of two American Westpoint graduates. Only one aircraft carrier Midway was ordered to move into the Korean waters. But nothing happened.

When suspicions rose that the North Koreans were engaged in a nuclear program, Reagan and Bush senior administrations moved first by offering to talk with Pyongyang. Bush senior offered to suspend the Team Spirit exercises and withdraw the tactical nuclear weapons from South Korea.

The fourth round involved Clinton. In the 1993-94 nuclear standoff the Clinton administration refused to take military action despite his previous much publicized threats. After wasting much time, the Clinton Administration agreed to hammer out the 1994 Geneva Agreed Framework.. The fifth round involves the current Bush administration that proclaimed the Bush doctrine of preemption. Bush has refused to translate his preemption doctrine against North Korea, although he ordered a military invasion of Iraq.

The current confrontation between the DPRK and the US can be safely defined as a war between Kim Jong Il and the American President Bush or Kerry, between Kim Il Sung University and Harvard, Stanford, and John Hopkins, and a war between Kim Il Sung Military University and National Defense University.

Kim Jong Il is so savvy that he has what it takes to be Korea's David to engage and shoot down the American goliath. Nuclear-tipped ICBMs are to Kim Jong Il what a sling was to David. The next American government is sure to become a modern-day goliath.

So far the current Bush Administration has had what some calls the luxury of ignorning North Korea. As a matter of fact, it is not any luxury at all. True, the Bush Administration had no option but to struggle not to look helpless, but the Korean question failed to come to a head, which Bush Administration officials wrote off as "a problem, not a crisis." At the expense of the US commitment to nuclear non-proliferation, the Bush Admnistration had to enjoy the luxury of looking the other way while the North Koreans were emerging an official nuclear power. Bush and his aides have no guts to confront a nuclear North Korea.

From the outset the Americans are well aware that the North Koreans are nuclear-armed. The Bush Administration ordered war against Iraq because they knew in advance that the Iraqis had no WMDs. If the Americans had known that the Iraqi forces were equipped with WMDs, they would have first continued massive air-raids for nearly one month before launching ground warfare. Last year the US ground forces moved into Iraq almost the fist day of the war, indicating their prior knowledge of absence of WMD in the arsenal of Iraq. For the same reason, the Bush Administration ordered mobilization of as few as 150,000 troops for invasion of the Arab country. Othewise, half a million troops ought to have been assembled.

The much-boasted high-tech equipment has proved to be useless in Iraq. The American high-tech forces are hordes of elephants throwing themselves about in a desert with little prospect of exit. How can such an army dare confront the Korean People's Army who beat the Amearican forces in the Korean War and awed them into backing down in a susequent series of major confrontations.

Another one year will find the DPRK equipped with at least more than a dozen nuclear weapons even in the most conservative American estimate. A hard fact of reality is that the North Koreans have hundreds of nuclear warheads which are locked on New York and other major cities.

No matter who wins the presidential election, Bush or Kerry, the new US administration will have to choose between the two options. One is to bring the Korean situation to a head by bringing the matter before the UN Security Council, threatening to impose additional sanctions. The other is to agree to accept the North Korean demand for an end to to the policy of hostility to the DPRK and a peace treaty between the two countries that will replace the Korean armistice agreement.

posted on Oct, 13 2004 @ 07:32 PM
Honestly I do not think NK will be an issue until mid-spring. Whomever is Pres (Bush) will keep putting the squeeze on them. The Chinese will be the ones to actually end this crisis.....

As for voters, mild concern, but Iraq/Iran are much bigger issues as the press coverage there is 100 fold.

posted on Oct, 13 2004 @ 07:49 PM
The problem with this argument is that NK can't hit the US east coast yet and they are limited at present to about 8 nukes, which in theory would be a small enough salvo that the US could take them out.

The US will retain a clear nuclear edge untill NK gets over 30 or so nukes with global strike ability.

posted on Oct, 13 2004 @ 08:30 PM
Kim Jong-Il's days are numbered, and it is not a very big number.

North Korea's long-term policies will be determined by his successors, and reunification is one of those policies.

posted on Oct, 16 2004 @ 12:50 PM
His day's might be numbered but I think he will be the one to determine that...not us...lets just see what Bush does after the elections...I'm betting he gets more hardcore on him.

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