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Major discrepancy from jpl/nasa and spaceweather.com in regards to YU55

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posted on Nov, 2 2011 @ 03:08 PM
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reply to post by LightSource
 


Check this pic, and here's where some of the distance seems to be missing.

Don't use that applet by the day, set it by hour, so you can get a more-better population for the hourly statistics, when you do that you'll see the small bit missed and it can throw off calculations, even for a rough estimate.

Note: It's not 0.991 it's 0.99.

Check it here, I saved you the trouble to look, so here's the pic of exactly what I mean.



Now, we'll see that:

If we do the "simple-math," it shows that: 0.99 - 0.0022 = 0.0078

And, infers that YU55 will be close-to: 0.0078 * 350000 (1AU) = 2730 km from Earth. Correct me if I calculated this wrongly. But the numbers add-up and whether Earth is slightly over 1AU or slightly under 1AU is what I'm looking-at very closely.


edit on 2-11-2011 by trekwebmaster because: (no reason given)



posted on Nov, 2 2011 @ 03:13 PM
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reply to post by trekwebmaster
 


The asteroid is going to be 150,000 km above earth and about 125,000 km above the moon at it's closest approach, plus the OP totally misunderstands the numbers he's adding together, explained by Alpha earlier in the thread.

Forget the x10 in this graphic, (it should be x100).



For better numbers use Horizons instead of the JPL applet, it even says so.



posted on Nov, 2 2011 @ 03:15 PM
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reply to post by Illustronic
 


Is there a link to that graphic? I'd love to see graphically what Horizons is showing there...please include one if you have one. Thanks!



posted on Nov, 2 2011 @ 03:22 PM
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reply to post by Illustronic
 


273000 ( 2730 x 100) is pretty much close to your numbers...and if 1LD is approx. to 384000 km that leaves, let's see: 111000 km. Isn't that about approx a third of 1LD? 0.33?



posted on Nov, 2 2011 @ 03:22 PM
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Originally posted by trekwebmaster

If we do the "simple-math," it shows that: 0.99 - 0.0022 = 0.0078




edit on 2-11-2011 by trekwebmaster because: (no reason given)


Well when I do that "simple" math

0.99 - 0.0022 = 0.9878

I did it in my head and even re-checked on a calculator to make sure.



posted on Nov, 2 2011 @ 03:24 PM
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reply to post by trekwebmaster
 


edit to add: beaten to it above. Never mind.
edit on 2/11/2011 by spikey because: (no reason given)



posted on Nov, 2 2011 @ 03:24 PM
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reply to post by Illustronic
 


What date is that calculation from?



posted on Nov, 2 2011 @ 03:24 PM
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Here's one.

JPL NEO Program link.

Here's another one.

Google images search will find a many of the same graphic posts.


November 8 to 9.63.
edit on 2-11-2011 by Illustronic because: (no reason given)



posted on Nov, 2 2011 @ 03:24 PM
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I too initially thought the 2 numbers should add up to 1 AU and was wondering why there was a difference of 0.0068. Then I started looking at other NEO figures and realized that none of these add up to 1 AU. I think the reason is because the earth and YU55 are not in the same path when compared to the sun.

The only way I can describe my theory is to think of the earth, sun and asteroid as 3 separate points in a triangle. The earth to sun distance is 1 and the earth to asteroid distance is 0.0022 and the asteroid to sun distance is 0.991. The angle between these points is what is throwing us off.

I may be completely out in left field here, but this is how I theorized the discrepancy in doing basic math.



posted on Nov, 2 2011 @ 03:26 PM
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reply to post by NoNameBrand
 


0.99 - 0.9878 = 0.0022



posted on Nov, 2 2011 @ 03:26 PM
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reply to post by ScubaGirl
 


No, it's because of the elliptical orbit of the earth around the sun. Sometimes we're closer to the sun than 1 AU, sometimes we're farther away.
This is like the 4th time somebody posts this, keep up


Originally posted by trekwebmaster
reply to post by NoNameBrand
 


0.99 - 0.9878 = 0.0022


Yes? 4+2 = 6
6-2 = 4
edit on 2-11-2011 by TheGrandWazoo because: (no reason given)



posted on Nov, 2 2011 @ 03:27 PM
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Good grief, this thread reminds me of those dreadful word problems from middle school: "A train leaves New York at 9.45 heading for Boston and arrives at 12.01. Meanwhile, a train traveling at 45 miles per hour leaves Boston at 10.15 heading for New York. What town will they meet in and at what time...?" The Earth's distance from the Sun and 2005 YU 55's distance from the Earth aren't necessarily going to add up to 1 AU in any event. The JPL browser shows the distance from Earth of both asteroids to diminish consistently, then increase consistently. I really don't understand the OP's issue.



posted on Nov, 2 2011 @ 03:32 PM
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I suppose we'll all have to wait and see what happens, after it has passed by or either impacted our planet, indeed we'll know, but I do know that working together trying to understand is better than subscribing to some "unknown propaganda."

I'll chalk-it-up that NOBODY really knows exactly and they are just as dumbfounded at what's going to happen as we are...LOL, isn't it ironic?



posted on Nov, 2 2011 @ 03:37 PM
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reply to post by trekwebmaster
 


I don't agree. It seems quite clear to me that this one is not going to hit us, we're just disagreeing about how close it will get.



posted on Nov, 2 2011 @ 03:40 PM
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reply to post by trekwebmaster
 


No, the orbit of 2005 YU55 is very accurately known, there is less than a 0.001% chance of fudge. It takes 1.22 years to orbit and made a close approach last April. They have 6 years worth of data there is no gray area.



posted on Nov, 2 2011 @ 03:53 PM
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Originally posted by Illustronic
reply to post by trekwebmaster
 


The asteroid is going to be 150,000 km above earth and about 125,000 km above the moon at it's closest approach, plus the OP totally misunderstands the numbers he's adding together, explained by Alpha earlier in the thread.

Forget the x10 in this graphic, (it should be x100).



For better numbers use Horizons instead of the JPL applet, it even says so.



Ok so can you please answer this question for me then please

When did .0111 become .4 LD and .0079 become .08 LD?

On October 28th UX255 is .0111 AU from earth yet .4 LD from earth (or that is what is says on spaceweather.com). On November 8th YU55 is .0079 AU from earth and .8 LD from earth how do those numbers add up? Also UX255 was .0046 AU from earth on October 29th and YU55 will be .0022 on November 9th why didn't they use the other 2 numbers instead and when did .0111 become closer than .0079?



posted on Nov, 2 2011 @ 04:00 PM
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Originally posted by trekwebmaster

Originally posted by ngchunter
reply to post by trekwebmaster
 


Once again, our average distance from the sun is 1au, it is not a fixed distance, only an average. Our orbit is slightly elliptical.


True, but that's not what I'm questioning. Given that 1AU is approx. to 0.99 and an average, it's what is computed FROM that average. Are we in that LESS than 1AU away, or are we just a wee bit over the 1AU away from the Sun? One could miss by a country-mile and another could be a direct hit.

It's not going to hit:

It doesn't get any less "vague" than that.



posted on Nov, 2 2011 @ 04:06 PM
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How come some will take NASA's word when it comes to the date of closest point to the Earth, but not anything else like the distance?

Why aren't we scrutinizing the date as well?

Just asking.



posted on Nov, 2 2011 @ 04:07 PM
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Originally posted by LightSource
On October 28th UX255 is .0111 AU from earth yet .4 LD from earth (or that is what is says on spaceweather.com).

Again, you can't just use numbers generate for midnight on the day of close approach and assume that's as close as it gets. The 2-body java applet though will not give as accurate a number as a proper program that takes into account the gravity of the planets anyway. UX255 was about 0.011 AU from earth at midnight on October 28th, but it was still approaching until about 17:41 UT that day, at which time it was 0.000925 AU from earth.


On November 8th YU55 is .0079 AU from earth and .8 LD from earth how do those numbers add up?

You made the same mistake again.


Also UX255 was .0046 AU from earth on October 29th and YU55 will be .0022 on November 9th why didn't they use the other 2 numbers instead and when did .0111 become closer than .0079?

And you made the same mistake again.
edit on 2-11-2011 by ngchunter because: (no reason given)



posted on Nov, 2 2011 @ 04:10 PM
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Originally posted by spikey
reply to post by ngchunter
 

I'm not saying anything jumped, i'm saying that the elliptical orbital path of the Earth is on a pretty gradual curve...never mind, it's not important.

What did your analysis show when you did the calculations with this other software you mention?



edit on 2/11/2011 by spikey because: typo

It showed that even with just amateur data, no professional data, the asteroid will miss the moon and the earth. The orbit I generated for it also closely agrees with the official orbit:
www.youtube.com...



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