Major discrepancy from jpl/nasa and spaceweather.com in regards to YU55

Hi all-

First, if this is not in the right area please move. Next i'm going to supply the link to spaceweather.com that shows near earth asteroids if you go about half way down the page.

spaceweather.com...


Now I have heard of the talk about YU55 that is supposed to hit earth on the 9th and I wanted to check out the map and I found something rather interesting, there was a major disrepancy in regards to two different asteroids. First I looked at UX255 that on October 28th it was going to be .4 LD away and on November 8th YU55 was supposed to be at .8 LD from earth.

Anyhow, I looked at UX255 and saw that on October 28th it was going to be .0111 AU from the earth which is 1,665,000 km away which is well over 3 LD (lunar distance) and on the 29th it would be .0046 AU or 1.796875 LD

I then looked at YU55 and on NOV 8th it is supposed to be .8 LD away. When I look at it on November 8th it will be .0079 AU from the earth or just over 3 LD from earth however on the 9th it will be .0022 AU or .859375 LD.

To me this shows what they are saying on how close it will be and the acutal numbers don't add up. Why?

second, it shows the distance the asteroid will be in relations to the sun and to the earth. On the 9th the asteroid will be .991 AU to the sun and .0022 AU to the earth. If you add those 2 numbers together you get .9932 AU. We are missing .0068 AU (that is a big number) why?

Anyhow i'm not saying its going to hit i just see that there is some major errors in what they are saying how close it is going to be in regards to LD and the actual distance. I mean the numbers put up there a fith grader would be able to post better numbers than what they posted and this is me just looking for 5 minutes i'm sure there are many more issues. What do you guys think?


I wanted to add this because this was one of my main issues

ok, so when did .0111 become .4 LD and .0079 become .08 LD?

On October 28th UX255 is .0111 AU from earth yet .4 LD from earth (or that is what is says on spaceweather.com). On November 8th YU55 is .0079 AU from earth and .8 LD from earth how do those numbers add up? Also UX255 was .0046 AU from earth on October 29th and YU55 will be .0022 on November 9th why didn't they use the other 2 numbers instead and when did .0111 become closer than .0079?

Perhaps thats just it.. they have doubts.
FEMA Nationwide Test Of The Emergency Alert System on 9 november
www.fema.gov...
Would be a "standby" mode, IF something should happen, just in case.
But how would that sound if they told us.. they never going to do that, they dont want to admit they have doubts

Originally posted by LightSource


second, it shows the distance the asteroid will be in relations to the sun and to the earth. On the 9th the asteroid will be .991 AU to the sun and .0022 AU to the earth. If you add those 2 numbers together you get .9932 AU. We are missing .0068 AU (that is a big number) why?

This is pretty weird. The two numbers should be at the very least 1 AU.

Wait a minute. The Astronomical Unit is an average, because the earths rotation is elliptic. Sometimes the actual distance is shorter, sometimes it's longer, depending on where we are in the orbit

reply to post by LightSource

second, it shows the distance the asteroid will be in relations to the sun and to the earth. On the 9th the asteroid will be .991 AU to the sun and .0022 AU to the earth. If you add those 2 numbers together you get .9932 AU. We are missing .0068 AU (that is a big number) why?

Why indeed....

Would you please explain why these two numbers should add up to 1 AU.

Peace

Originally posted by LightSource
When I look at it on November 8th it will be .0079 AU from the earth or just over 3 LD from earth however on the 9th it will be .0022 AU or .859375 LD.

Let me guess, you're using the 2-body simulation java applet and only looking at midnight on each day...

That doesn't work for what you're trying to do.

second, it shows the distance the asteroid will be in relations to the sun and to the earth. On the 9th the asteroid will be .991 AU to the sun and .0022 AU to the earth. If you add those 2 numbers together you get .9932 AU. We are missing .0068 AU (that is a big number) why?

Missing? No, our orbit is slightly elliptical, 1 AU is the average distance, not the fixed distance of our planet from the sun.

reply to post by LightSource




I agree, there's a lot here to make one doubt. Especially this screenshot, which depicts a 0.0022 AU distance for YU55, but what sticks-out to me is the 0.99 AU (Sun.)

Well, if we do the "simple-math," doesn't this seem odd? 0.99 - 0.0022 = 0.0078

And, please let me know if I am calculating this correctly, but gives a distance from YU55 to Earth, as-being: 0.0078 * 350000 (1AU) = 2730 km? Is this how close it's going to come to us? What exactly is the inference here, but this simple math isn't adding-up to me.

Anyone have any clues?

reply to post by ngchunter


A slightly elliptical Earth orbit wouldn't suddenly 'jump' such distances in one single day.

The elliptical path is a gradual curve, not a gradual curve with a huge leap during one day.

See what i mean?

reply to post by trekwebmaster


Once again, our average distance from the sun is 1au, it is not a fixed distance, only an average. Our orbit is slightly elliptical.

Originally posted by TheGrandWazoo

Originally posted by LightSource


second, it shows the distance the asteroid will be in relations to the sun and to the earth. On the 9th the asteroid will be .991 AU to the sun and .0022 AU to the earth. If you add those 2 numbers together you get .9932 AU. We are missing .0068 AU (that is a big number) why?

This is pretty weird. The two numbers should be at the very least 1 AU.

Wait a minute. The Astronomical Unit is an average, because the earths rotation is elliptic. Sometimes the actual distance is shorter, sometimes it's longer, depending on where we are in the orbit

ok so yes there is a difference and as we are close to December 21st this would make more sense.

This is because the distance between the Earth and the Sun is not fixed (it varies between 0.983 289 8912 AU and 1.016 710 3335 AU

en.wikipedia.org...


However this does not explain their numbers as to the distance between the earth and the asteroids and would raise more questions as to the LD distances they have provided.

Well, I have no idea...but I want to at least have an idea if this is something to be concerned about. All the talk of Elenin and this asteroid (is that what it is?) gets no attention. HAHA! Why, I must ask do we not know more about this sucker as it seems like it will impact us. It must be really small??? Inquiring minds such as this one want to know.

reply to post by LightSource


Riddle me this, the plane I flew this morning was 6.684587122671E-8 AU from the Earth yet 1 AU from the sun..??

Can't YU55 pass "over head"??

Peace

reply to post by spikey


I don't see any evidence it jumped but using a 2 body java applet for this is wrong to start with. It even says, don't use for planetary encounters. I've already analyzed the orbit myself with much better software.

Originally posted by ngchunter
reply to post by trekwebmaster

 

Once again, our average distance from the sun is 1au, it is not a fixed distance, only an average. Our orbit is slightly elliptical.

True, but that's not what I'm questioning. Given that 1AU is approx. to 0.99 and an average, it's what is computed FROM that average. Are we in that LESS than 1AU away, or are we just a wee bit over the 1AU away from the Sun? One could miss by a country-mile and another could be a direct hit.

Thanks for deflecting my question and giving a vague and non-sequiter answer. It's not the 1AU average we need to worry about, it's the HOW CLOSE the damned thing is, and if those "simple-math" numbers say anything to anyone, it's gonna whizzz by pretty damned close.

Debunk Answer has been DEBUNKED! NEXT!

Originally posted by ngchunter
reply to post by spikey

 

I don't see any evidence it jumped but using a 2 body java applet for this is wrong to start with. It even says, don't use for planetary encounters. I've already analyzed the orbit myself with much better software.

Care to share your results, perhaps we'd take actual figures as being a more-credible source than taking your word for it. After all, your reputations mean nothing if that damned thing hits.

Originally posted by LightSource
second, it shows the distance the asteroid will be in relations to the sun and to the earth. On the 9th the asteroid will be .991 AU to the sun and .0022 AU to the earth. If you add those 2 numbers together you get .9932 AU. We are missing .0068 AU (that is a big number) why?

1. There is no reason why adding those two numbers should give you 1.00 AU.
For three objects, distance A-B plus distance A-C will never get you distance B-C unless they are in a straight line, which they are not.

2. To paraphrase yourself, and to show how meaningless the question is...
On the 3rd the planet Venus will be 0.723 AU to the sun and 1.567 AU to the earth. If you add those 2 numbers together you get 2.29 AU. why?

3. For goodness sake, will people please STOP using that JPL applet as some kind of a serious source for information. It clearly states it is just a rough guide and if you need accurate values then GO ELSEWHERE... but nooooo, ATS users just cant help themselves bringing up "anomalies" that simply are not.

reply to post by ngchunter

I'm not saying anything jumped, i'm saying that the elliptical orbital path of the Earth is on a pretty gradual curve...never mind, it's not important.

What did your analysis show when you did the calculations with this other software you mention?

Damn, how can we have a serious discussion if some people are too proud to take other people seriously.

Have some respect. People are trying to tell each other what they've figured out themselves, they're not trying to ridicule anybody with their superior knowledge...

reply to post by operation mindcrime


ok, so when did .0111 become .4 LD and .0079 become .08 LD?

On October 28th UX255 is .0111 AU from earth yet .4 LD from earth. On November 8th YU55 is .0079 AU from earth and .8 LD from earth how do those numbers add up? Also UX255 was .0046 AU from earth on October 29th and YU55 will be .0022 on November 9th why didn't they use the other 2 numbers instead and when did .0111 become closer than .0079???

reply to post by alfa1


You know, you crack me up. Sit there spouting rhetoric and while claiming to have access to "better" information and "debunk" and "demean" ATS folks, who are trying work out an "anomaly," on their own, and find that the folks that should be showing and teaching how to do things correctly, are the ones slinging fallacious invalid arguments about ATS and their "general" intelligence levels -- Did you not forget:

You're an ATS member too, I can see by your post.

Instead of showing how things are done incorrectly and teaching the correct methods, you inject an invalid and fallacious argument as to the general credibility of ATS and how members calculate and reason.

How is this helpful? When all the "naysayers" and "ATS bashers" refuse to even give logical reasons and examples which could help even the moderately intelligent folks could understand?

You expect me to believe this mess? Okay, I'd rather trust someones inaccurate, but valid conclusions than a general fallacious argument designed to discredit those who don't seem up to your standard of thinking?

I dare you to do better!

reply to post by alfa1


Well, your talking about adding all the values together, that's basically saying you calculate the sum of the 'circle' of all the bodies. As YU55 will be above or below the ecliptic, there's where the discrepancy in the sum (1AU) lies.

So as i understand it, according to the numbers being offered for consideration, the asteroid YU55 is approx 2.5LD above or below the plane of the ecliptic (Earth)?

Is that near being correct?