New Swarm of Earthquakes in Arkansas.

I think part of what Robin is concerned about is the effect all of these small quakes may have in the NMSZ which could trigger a larger quake.

Whether the fault that ruptured in 1811-12 does so once more or another yet-to-be-defined fault breaks and generates a M 7+ quake, the truth is we would all be in a world of hurt.

Robin's not the only person who thinks that small quakes could trigger a larger quake.

Importance of small earthquakes for stress transfers and earthquake triggering is a study published on the Cornell University Library database which indicates just that possibility:

The stronger the spatial clustering, the larger the influence of small earthquakes on stress changes at the location of a future event as well as earthquake triggering. If earthquake magnitudes follow the Gutenberg-Richter law with b>D/2, small earthquakes collectively dominate stress transfer and earthquake triggering, because their greater frequency overcomes their smaller individual triggering potential.

This is telling us that even though each individual quake represents only a small amount of energy release, the cumulative effects are more than the sum total. In other words there is a possible synergistic effect with a multitude of small quakes on a (non) related fault system within a certain geographical area.

Why hasn't this been given more research?

Because large earthquakes modify stress over a much larger area than smaller ones, and because computing Coulomb stress changes requires a good model of slip distribution available only for large earthquakes, most studies have neglected the influence of “small” earthquakes.

So, how does this influence propagate into a fault system?

• A triggered earthquakes size is independent of the magnitude of the triggering event (“mainshock”) as suggested by [Helmstetter, 2003]. This implies that the crust is everywhere close to failure, such that any small earthquake, triggered by a previous small one, can grow into an event much larger than its trigger

As one takes notice of the rifts that circle the globe and then thinks about the fact that there is spreading taking place around the globe, one cannot help but conclude that all of the that spreading is going to be causing pressure to increase in areas which are being "crowded." This results in a globe who's surface is everywhere fractured, thus on the point of rupture at any given time with no prior notice.

What does all of this mean?

These results imply that a small earthquake can trigger a much larger earthquake. It thus validates our hypothesis that the size of a triggered earthquake is not determined by the size of the trigger, but that any small earthquake can grow into a much larger one [Kagan, 1991b; Helmstetter, 2003; Felzer et al., 2004]. The magnitude of the triggering earthquake controls only the number of triggered quakes

emphasis mine

So, smaller quakes can trigger larger quakes and it is merely the number of quakes triggered, not size of subsequent quake which is affected when considering remote triggering.

It all boils down to this:

Although large earthquakes are much more important than smaller ones for energy release, small quakes have collectively the same influence as large ones for stress changes between earthquakes, due to seismic spatial clustering.

emphasis mine

Since smaller quakes occur in a more compact area, they have influence equivalent to larger quakes due to the closer proximity to one another.

Another study I found some place (I can go dig it out if it is really necessary, I don't remember what thread I posted it in, but I think it dealt with induced seismicity incidents in India related to petroleum production) indicates that induced earthquakes (like those caused by fracking) are similar enough in energy release and signature that the seismic waves behave as if they were naturally occurring.

This means, that all of the fracking induced quakes that are taking place are acting like a series of firecrackers popping off continually on top of a larger fault system (NMSZ) and are potentially going to cause that system to release any pent up energy.

Remember, it's not the fact that it's an earthquake, or volcano (seems to be a bit of activity on that front around the world presently), but it is more a function of energy that is being released and thus moved to another location. Which causes a build up of stress (energy in potential) increasing until friction is overcome (a rupture happens) and then that energy flow is unblocked, albeit briefly, and thence the energy seeks a new equilibrium.

Did I forget to mention OHIO. Injection causing earthquakes.

www.mariettatimes.com...

www.sacbee.com...

www.athensnews.com...


More reports. I wonder why the relative silence from the mainstream press. Could it be that they have money invested/ conflict of interest?

www.kuar.org...

www.youtube.com...

www.texassharon.com...

www.thecitywire.com.../18220

For balance, here's someone who thinks it's a good thing.

www.thenewamerican.com...

So, fracking stories are like urban legends. Like drying off your poodle in a microwave.

Hey, North Carolina, they coming after you now.
www.charlotteobserver.com...

Glad to see the thread. People over in NWA are talking about feeling ill at ease and some just downright nervous since the earthquakes have picked up this month. I have had a lot more nausea and problems with ears this week but we can put that off to chemo. I will be glad when the last one is done next month so I can tell the difference in what I'm feeling due to the poisons I have taken in or due to the poison the earth has taken in. I may not post often but I am here, keeping watch and glad to know you guys are still trying to watch over us.

reply to post by ur44lois


Hi! So glad to see your post. I've been wondering how you are doing. You sure don't need anything else, (more earthquakes), to worry about, or make you feel worse, on top of the chemo! Hang in there. We'll still be praying & thinking of you!!!
WOQ

www.intellicast.com... Once the page loads, click on overlays and select earthquakes. It's showing 6 currently for Arkansas! That got my attention too.

folkworm.ceri.memphis.edu...

www.geology.ar.gov...

Above are links to helicorders for Arkansas, many showing what the first map indicated.

reply to post by underdogradio


The intention was not to insinuate that you did not work for the USGS. I said "If you worked for the USGS as you say " which was perhaps a rather lazy way of saying "On the basis that you worked for the USGS as you advise us". Perhaps we both should pay attention to sentence construction and stop bickering over being divided by a common language.

Your comment

I didn't realize this was only about hydraulic fracturing, sorry.

appeared extremely dismissive of a subject that is a big deal for a large number of people.

I’m not the one who put “only” in capitals

Note that this time as last I did not emphasise your statement only mine

I just read this Robin and anyone else interested. My apologies if the article has already been posted. I didn't see it but that doesn't mean anything. The Article's title : Geologists closely monitoring surge in central Arkansas quakes
Official: Layout of quakes might suggest larger tremor coming

Here is the link www.arkansasonline.com... and below is the beginning of the article.

LITTLE ROCK — The Arkansas Geological Survey says it is stepping up its monitoring of seismic activity in central Arkansas after dozens of small earthquakes in the region.

Six minor quakes were recorded Friday near Quitman, the latest of more than 50 temblors in October. The Friday tremors began with a 2.0-magnitude quake around 7:45 a.m. and peaked with a 2.5 quake later in the morning.

The shaking follows more than 1,000 earthquakes centered between Guy and Greenbrier from September 2010 to July of this year, when the Arkansas Oil and Gas Commission ordered four gas disposal wells shut down and voted to create a large moratorium area in which no future disposal wells could be drilled.

Geologists said the activity - which involves injecting pressurized liquid into the ground - was likely contributing to the shaking.

The quakes between Guy and Greenbrier tailed off significantly in August, but more quakes began occurring in October closer to Quitman. It sits about 10 miles northeast of Guy.

That distance is potentially concerning, warned Scott Ausbrooks, geohazards supervisor for the Arkansas Geological Survey. The Quitman quakes are occurring along the same line as the Guy-Greenbrier ones, but there's a miles-long gap between Guy and Quitman in which no quakes have been recorded.

reply to post by MamaJ

Hi MamaJ,

many thank for posting that information and link.

Near the end of the part of the article you posted, where it says that there is a stretch of some miles between the two quake areas that has not had any quakes.

What I thought when I read that was: "Yeah. That stretch has not had any quakes. Yet."

Sometimes I wonder if Ausbrooks is doing his best to drop hints. He is a bit limited in what he can say; he certainly can't make statements as openly as he might like, I feel. I think that like Robin and doubtless many of us, he is concerned that the fault line in that area may not only be longer than first thought, but could be capable of producing larger seismic events than originally believed.

I also wonder how many other less-known or unknown faults there may be throughout that entire region of the US, faults that have been basically quiescent because over long periods of time, they had settled down and pretty much balanced their energies, if I can put it that way. But with the very unnatural rates of change being forced on and into the earth in that region (as in many others), what was so long in balance may rapidly be slipping into a new state of flux and the whole energy-balancing process will have to start up again.

Mike

Originally posted by JustMike
reply to post by MamaJ

 

Hi MamaJ,

many thank for posting that information and link.

Near the end of the part of the article you posted, where it says that there is a stretch of some miles between the two quake areas that has not had any quakes.

What I thought when I read that was: "Yeah. That stretch has not had any quakes. Yet."

Sometimes I wonder if Ausbrooks is doing his best to drop hints. He is a bit limited in what he can say; he certainly can't make statements as openly as he might like, I feel. I think that like Robin and doubtless many of us, he is concerned that the fault line in that area may not only be longer than first thought, but could be capable of producing larger seismic events than originally believed.

I also wonder how many other less-known or unknown faults there may be throughout that entire region of the US, faults that have been basically quiescent because over long periods of time, they had settled down and pretty much balanced their energies, if I can put it that way. But with the very unnatural rates of change being forced on and into the earth in that region (as in many others), what was so long in balance may rapidly be slipping into a new state of flux and the whole energy-balancing process will have to start up again.

Mike

I want to quote what you said again in its entirety because I totally agree that everything you said is spot on. They do know a lot more than what they are saying and it is easy for us to read between the lines. Wherever it blows may indeed be somewhere we least expect. For some reason I have a feeling that the Big One in California will be connected to the New Madrid. Meaning, if one of us cracks, the other will fall in sync. Do you think this is possible with what you know? It is only a feeling and I don't trust feelings alone.

Someone came on the Quake Watch Thread saying someone else posted seeing lights in the New Madrid area. I cannot find a thread though that relates from yesterday...maybe it was posted this morning. If you find it please link it to me. I was wondering when I first read it if maybe they were confused as the Northern lights were indeed visible in the area a few days ago. I fell asleep too early to see anything though. Dang it.

reply to post by MamaJ

Thank you...

Honestly I think we have no way of knowing or not if there might be some kind of domino effect, such as if the NMSZ goes and triggers the SAF (San Andreas Fault). They are apparently separate, but even the best scientists in the field would admit that we don't know everything and that even plate theory is just that: a theory, not a rock-solid (pun) given.

The scenario that concerns me most if the CSZ lets go along its full length of at least 600 miles (~1,000 km) and unleashes a mag 9 quake. That could quite literally have far-reaching consequences just due to the huge energies involved, and as it was January of 1700 when it went last time we have very little sure knowledge of the effects it might have had in most other places, especially on the SAF, California in general and even places farther afield.

It's not a scenario I'd ever want to see happen but theoretically at least, it's not impossible.

As for the lights that you mentioned -- no, I haven't seen that post. I'd dig for it but have to head off to take care of some work duties soon. I might follow-up on it later though. If you find the post please send me a U2U.

Best regards,

Mike

I posted this in the Arkansas thread too. Here are some more links regarding fracking and earthquakes.

Geologists eye new well after 7 quakes in NE Ohio www.yorkdispatch.com...

6 Earthquakes Recorded In Arkansas www.4029tv.com...

My Water's On Fire Tonight (The Fracking Song) www.youtube.com...

Drilling Debate in Cooperstown, N.Y., Is Personal www.nytimes.com...

Jess Moore at Occupy Sydney: ‘They unwittingly unleashed a powerful community campaign’ www.greenleft.org.au...

The fight is on worldwide and we aren't anywhere near finished with the fight in Arkansas.

Okay, everything is much too quiet!

That's usually supposed to be a 'good thing'.........right?!
Then how come I've been feeling so uneasy???

It doesn't help when *****Robin***** hasn't been around either!!!! He's our rock!

Can you spell c...o...i...n...c...i...d...e...n...c...e???

Robin... reassure us!!!!

6 quakes over by tulsa since 2 am. My sister said the 4.7 shook her out of the bed. How many does it take to be a swarm? Is this gonna make the big North/south division line if it goes over and hits the guy fault? Its kind of freaky they don't have earthquakes in that area of OK.

reply to post by ur44lois

Hi Lois,

historically, they do have quakes in the part of OK, but it's pretty rare to see ones of the size that hit there today. Most of the time they are much smaller -- down in the magnitude 2 sort of range. There have been plenty of these little quakes in recent years.

Hard to say what these latest events might portend, if anything. But we'll be keeping an eye on it for sure, especially because of the quakes over in AR around Guy and also Quitman, that are most likely due to effects of fracking in the region and disturbance of local faults that have been very quiet for a fair while.

About swarms: there would need to be quite a large number of quakes in a short space of time to be considered a swarm. The length of time is relative, though. It can be days, but also some swarms last months or longer. Dozens to hundreds of quakes are common with swarms, though bigger swarms can have thousands of quakes. (These are usually very small quakes and typically, only a few would be strongly felt.) The quakes we've seen today in that part of OK are most likely aftershocks of the first one (which was the largest). It's not possible yet to say if they are the start of a swarm.

Also, swarms generally have a different causation (sometimes volcanic, like the Yellowstone and El Hierro swarms), and are not just aftershocks of a larger quake. If we look at Japan, for example, there has been a huge number of quakes in the region where the massive magnitude 9 quake hit on March 11, but they're not classified as a swarm. In spite of their numbers, they're taken as aftershocks of the main quake. Two things justify this: one is that the area where the quakes are happening in Japan is very large and covers thousands of sq miles (whereas most swarms occur within a very small area, perhaps only a few miles on a side), and there is a known cause for them with the big quake.

The large number of quakes around Guy, AR, can be classified as a swarm because they have all occured in a very small area and within a (relatively) short amount of time, and also they were not simply aftershocks of a bigger quake. There were some that were aftershocks of the magnitude 4.7 quake there on Feb 27 this year, but the swarm itself started back in the summer of 2010, and so that bigger quake is counted as part of the swarm.

There is some good info about the Guy-Greenbrier region swarm on USGS here.


Mike

reply to post by ur44lois


They are fracking in OK too. I hope everyone there stays safe and if you are new there are three threads about the quakes, the fracking in Arkansas. Please check them out.

The links for the other two threads are here.
www.abovetopsecret.com... original thread
www.abovetopsecret.com... resource bibliography

Robin will be back, he has some things going on right now. He is keeping watch though.

Another 3.3 just hit OK.earthquake.usgs.gov...

A couple of articles about the quakes in OK.
www.news-press.com...

www.eenews.net...

reply to post by SusanFrey


Hey Susan did you feel that 5.2 that happened a few minutes ago...My house shook for a good 15 seconds. rumbled like a train was going by but no train...was pretty loud and pretty freaky

Was just listening to ATS live, and as it was going off the air, in the chat a member from OK was shaken in his chair and house. Turns out 5.2, www.abovetopsecret.com... Quake watch is right on the info with it. I had Arkansas helicorders up during the first 10 min. then they crashed. But the few minutes before midnight were impressive waves showing.

Scientists to place new earthquake monitors in Georgia.

ATLANTA — Researchers in a nationwide study of earthquakes will soon place instruments beneath the Georgia red clay and in other eastern states as they seek to learn more about what causes them and where they might strike.

Woodward says he's excited about the potential for discoveries in Georgia and states in the Appalachian mountains.

He's also hoping the broader USArray project will improve understanding of a region in southeast Missouri, where a series of ferocious earthquakes struck in 1811 and 1812 in an area known as the New Madrid fault. There's been debate among scientists over the potential for another devastating strike there, which could threaten modern skyscrapers, historic buildings and millions of people in cities such as Memphis and St. Louis.

"The question now is, is that area reloading for another one?," Woodward said. "Scientifically it's quite an interesting debate," he said. "I'm certainly hopeful that all the instruments may shed some light on it."

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