Comet Elenin was here roughly 500 years ago on a different path?

I'm not sure why nobody has tried this before on here. I went to the elenin.org web page where you can find the JPL orbital trajectory diagram. I set the time in the drop-down menu to "1 year" and zoomed all the way out. I then proceeded to hit the double back arrow to make it play continuously in reverse. I was curious to see when this comet had made a visit in the past because it seems EVERYONE automatically jumps to the "ZOMG it is nibiru it has 3600 year orbit. zachary stencil said so in his books about the sumerians" argument.

I sat for a while watching the planets go around the sun in reverse REALLY fast (which was actually quite amusing) and then I saw it. Somewhere around 1675 Elenin enters the view on a very different track. The diagram stops playing on Jan 1, 1600 with Elenin WAY off its present-day track. I'm not entirely sure what that means, but the conclusion can be drawn that Elenin was here probably somewhere around 1550 AD the last time it came through. This means ELENIN CANNOT HAVE A 3600 YEAR ORBIT!

It was, however, on a completely different orbit the last time it came through. That, to me, is interesting in and of itself. To me, it shows that something has acted upon it to change its path, or simply that the data for that far back in time really was largely estimated.

I felt I should bring this to everyone's attention in order to maybe clear up some questions about this comet's orbit.


P.S. I know his name is actually Zechariah Sitchin LOL oh and also this is my first thread so hi guys

reply to post by wWizard


Posting a link is beneficial to start by embedding it.BS link

reply to post by mugger


Thank you. I only didn't do it because I didn't think people were that lazy to where they couldn't type the word "elenin" into their search browser.

People,,,PLEASE use your return/enter key to put some paragraphs in your posts. I'm sure I am not the only one who just moves to the next post when I see a wall of text.

Thank you in advance.

reply to post by wWizard


I typed elenin into google and came up with this.
About 4,540,000 results (0.08 seconds)
Should I guess as to the article?

reply to post by isitjustme


Too lazy to read. Too lazy to type. Is this community on this website really that slow?

If something changed Comet Elenin's trajectory path in the past how in the hell is the JPL orbital trajectory diagram going to track this? Wouldn't it be showing you the natural orbit the comet has and just calculate it backwards?

reply to post by mugger


I did it too. First thing on Google is Elenin.org....

reply to post by 1d2a3n


Exactly, but that's the problem. Shouldn't it have come in on the same path? Or do comets change their orbits? I really have very little knowledge on comets which is why I am confused about that.

i did the same thing a few months ago and got a different result....elenin just kept getting further and further away until jpl stopped calculating
that must have been before they changed the trajectory data

Two problems with this. First it has been proven in the past that Elenin.org's simulator is using false orbital data. Second, if you go to the JPL site and look at their orbital diagram you will see a disclaimer that states that the program is incapable of making accurate long term predictions. All it really gives you is a rough estimate of where it is now and a few months preceding and following its current location. If you want to be able to make accurate predictions as to its previous locations you will need to use Horizon.

The program specifically says...

The applet was implemented using 2-body methods, and hence should not be used for determining accurate long-term trajectories (over several years or decades)

and thats why it doesnt work as expected.
It is a simple program designed to let you see where things are around about now.

The applet was implemented using 2-body methods, and hence should not be used for determining accurate long-term trajectories (over several years or decades)

JPL

The web page you linked to shows the application, but does not show this disclaimer.

reply to post by Xcalibur254


Thank you sir. I was not aware of this. But it must be accurate to some degree right? I mean, 1550 AD isn't too far of a stretch to say that my argument is completely innaccurate, is it?

reply to post by alfa1


But the question is this: Is the data really off by 3000 years? I highly doubt it.

reply to post by wWizard


People here are willing to help you become a constructive addition to the forum if you are open to advice. Name calling isn't going to draw people to your threads,

Being clear and concise will help you get your thoughts across to others, then interested members can discuss ideas

reply to post by isitjustme


Thanks for that input, it just seems like nobody wants to do anything themselves. Like their time is too precious or something.

Originally posted by wWizard
But the question is this: Is the data really off by 3000 years? I highly doubt it.

Xcalibur gave you the correct answer... If you want to be able to make accurate predictions as to its previous locations you will need to use Horizon.

Go try it and let us know how it goes.


Edit - actually you dont even need to do that.
The JPL page clearly shows the orbital parameters, and the "mean motion" is given as
n 1.440006540136297E-6 5.9148e-08 deg/d

that is, 1.44 x 10-6 degrees per day.
So, its easy to work out how long one orbit (360 degrees) will take, and thats 684000 years.
But actually even thats not precise, because it doesnt take into account the minor changes in the orbit due to influence from other bodies.
But in any case, its not 500 years.

reply to post by alfa1


Oh wow. Is what you posted somewhat accurate? I mean clearly, there is going to be error, but is that closer than what is on the jpl diagram?

Originally posted by wWizard
Oh wow. Is what you posted somewhat accurate?

The wikipedia page gives a bit more detail on the orbit.
wiki

The "problem" with comet Elenin is that its orbit is right on the border of that needed to not come back at all, so very minor changes can mean huge variation in its orbital time, from many thousands of years to infinity.
This is probably its first ever pass through the solar system, and when or if it will ever return is hard to exactly say. But until somebody does more observations tens of thousands, or hundreds of thousands of years from now, this is probably the best we have...

Near perihelion, using an August 2011 epoch, Kazuo Kino#a shows C/2010 X1 to have a heliocentric orbital period of 600,000 years, though more perturbations will occur.

reply to post by alfa1


Alright then, I think we have our answer. Thanks a bunch