I'm calling a black monday for the US$ and shares prices

No one could exspect a good open but Russia Today was saying yesterday that if the debt celling was not resolved by the time Japan/China opens it's markets sunday night then the US would realy take a kicking.

Thing is RT said this yesterday and today they pulled the story which is not like them so we have two options

1. Presure was put on them to pull
2. They made a mistake and decided they had it wrong.

I'm running with option one because RT seems to get things right most times.

Well stock futures here show the market down triple digits so tomorrow maybe the ride down hill.
2nd

reply to post by Master_007

Anyway you can prove that about the article? I would like to read it if so.

Interesting times coming up I think.

Have to see how all this plays out.

I call black friday.

Meltdown will not happen Monday. Calm your horses.

Obama said on Monday the stock market could face problems or something to that effect.

Good day to sell the rumor and buy the news, IMO. Which is backwards of most thinking. If the equity markets really thought this was going to happen it would have been down a whole hell of a lot more lately. This little 100 point drop in futures is just noise with low liquidity.

Personally, I believe something will get done at the deadline - if not before.

Monday the 1st of August would be the "last minute miracle deal" date that most investors have priced into the markets. A black Friday the 29th would only occur if the inside traders "in the money" got a phone call.

Be very careful. When you think it would be obvious that the market goes down it goes up. The Fed, banks and big investment firms control this market. They need to make their money back from all their losses. They do this with insider information and total control of the stock market. When real money comes in from average folks thinking they know whats going on, they take it. Remember the Plunge Protection Team. Since there is an impasse on the dept ceiling talks it would be obvious for the market to go lower tomorrow. Don't do the obvious.

reply to post by Master_007


Well, if this market doesn't start unraveling on 7/25/11, it will start soon. QE1 & QE2 have artificially boosted this market since 2008 and it's only a matter of time before it falls big time!

Originally posted by TheOneElectric
I call black friday.

Meltdown will not happen Monday. Calm your horses.

Silver looks to be up slightly as well as Gold at the time of this post. Also the dollar is only down slightly, but the DOW futures are off over 100 points. Could be a shaky day tomorrow, but my guess is it will pull out by the end of the week. Generally if the week starts off bad the end of the week will see "bargain buying" which will bring the markets up. If the week starts out strong generally you will see "profit taking" at the end of the week which will bring the markets down.

reply to post by Master_007


Dear Master_007,

RT is wrong, we may see a dip; but, not a full blown crash because too much money is locked in till the next Triple Witching Hour which does not occur until September. For an explanation you can go to Wikipedia; but, basically the day when certain types of securities and options expire.

Nyet.

Maybe the USD will take a hit but stocks will keep riding high (in general) for the next year or so ... the thing is, there's nowhere else for big money to go ... property is a joke, bonds and treasuries are sketchy at best. This is why the stock market is up so high right now. PE valuations are ridiculous.

Wait for all the social media IPOs to come out, and then watch it all touch bottom mid 2012 to mid 2013

Originally posted by BillfromCovina
Remember the Plunge Protection Team. Since there is an impasse on the dept ceiling talks it would be obvious for the market to go lower tomorrow. Don't do the obvious.

Hey Bill, the currency leg of the Plunge Protection Team...or the Exchange Stabilization Fund as it's known in more polite circles, has been temporarily neutered by Uncle Thug's demon spawn.

Geithner to congress > SEND MONEY!

U.S. Department Of The Treasury

Update: As Previously Announced, Treasury to Employ Final Extraordinary Measure to Extend U.S. Borrowing Authority Until August 2

7/15/2011

WASHINGTON – Today, the U.S. Department of the Treasury released the following statement from Jeffrey Goldstein, Under Secretary for Domestic Finance, regarding the use of the last of the four previously announced measures available to keep our nation under the statutory debt limit, suspension of reinvestment of the Exchange Stabilization Fund.

“Today, as previously announced, the Treasury Department will suspend reinvestment of the Exchange Stabilization Fund, the last of the measures available to keep the nation under the statutory debt limit. In order to prevent a default on the nation’s obligations, Congress must enact a timely increase of the debt ceiling.” - Link

At this point I don't expect a positive open but 'Black Monday' might be a tad hyperbolic. As Dance4Life alluded, it's still early, and index futures can reverse in a heartbeat. Even an implied/interim resolution to the debt debate before US O/Bell could turn the futures around faster than a Greek politician can spend [other peoples] money.

GL

Similarly I don't expect any major event taking place but over the longer term, the global economy is heading on a downward spiral and we can probably expect to see increased volatility on the financial markets and deteriorating economic conditions.

Originally posted by AQuestion
reply to post by Master_007

 

Dear Master_007,

RT is wrong, we may see a dip; but, not a full blown crash because too much money is locked in till the next Triple Witching Hour which does not occur until September. For an explanation you can go to Wikipedia; but, basically the day when certain types of securities and options expire.

it was more of a good kicking they said and not a full on meltdown.

Sorry i've no link to show people as it was just in the TV news and may take a few days to turn up on Youtube who are starting to use silly copywrite notes to restrict the use of controversal clips not in keeping with Big Bro

I wonder if there are any Republican politicians that are actually considering letting the US default for a short period of time?

It's a paranoid idea but thinking about it some of the Republican constituency might actually profit from a default.

1. The default would occur on Obama's watch and whether or not he could have actually prevented it, the democrats would be hurt more from the fallout politically.

2. The military complex might gain an advantage from media driven hysteria that would occur in the aftermath.

3. The banks that make money from loan interest would be in a more profitable environment after the default if interest rates went up.

The crisis that resulted would need to be resolved within a couple weeks to provide a rebound before any real economic slowdown could set in though. Argentina did quite well after their default but of course they were in a worse situation.

What about this coming Monday if no debt ceiling agreement is reached? You'd think there would be a bit more activity on the markets.

I just got off the phone with a source on Capitol Hill who has spent the past few days trying to convince Republicans to vote for a debt ceiling hike.

He told me that the biggest obstacle he faces has been "market complacency."

"Frankly, a bit of panic would be very helpful right now," he said.

As he explained it, lots of people in Washington, D.C. expected that this would be a week marked by panic in the markets. Stocks would tank. Bonds would get clobbered. The dollar would do something dramatic. And all of this would help convince reluctant lawmakers that they had to reach a compromise on the debt ceiling.

"We were following the script from 2008. When the market collapsed after TARP failed, that spooked everyone enough to get them to fall in line. We thought the same thing would happen this week," he said.

Instead, the market has just been on a quiet, non-panicked slide.

Stocks have sold off by a couple of percentage points, but nothing that indicates a real fear trade in the works.

Washington Is Annoyed at Wall Street's Failure to Panic

Well let's see what Monday's trading brings about. Might be a non-event, might be some major activity, or just more of the same.

Yes, this Monday should be interesting. The Asian markets open sometime tomorrow afternoon, and there's another vote before then, that sounds destined to fail.

This is like watching a slow train wreck.
Much of the world is watching this train wreck.
All they've been doing is proving that they don't have a clue about economics in the real world.

And the media!
I turned on CNN last night in time to hear Anderson Cooper say "breaking news - nothings happening"
Pure silliness...

reply to post by surrealist


Saw this same headline linked on Drudgereport Saturday morning while waiting for the kids to get out to the truck and intended to read the artcile while at breakfast. By a half an hour later, at the restaurant, the headline had been pulled from Drudge. IMO, there's a smoking gun here in some form. I suspect any huge negative action in the stock market come Monday will most likely have some serious market manipulation behind it.

Frankly, I'm not remotely sold on the idea that forcing DC to prioritize spending, so long as the debt is serviced first, would have much of a negative impact on the market. That statement assumes everything else is left alone. If the political machine manipulates the market, then all bets are off.