Solar flaring warning issued!....

reply to post by smartbuddy


Space weather is only showing a 40% chance of M class flares. spaceweather.com...

Originally posted by Phage
reply to post by westcoast

 

No.
Solar flares do not affect weather.

i dont want to nit pick here but how can you say with such conviction that there is NO connection between solar flares and "local terestrial" weather?

i mean the magnetosphere is coming from the earth and if the solar flare hits earth it is going to effect the magnetosphere and how do you say so conclusivly that this change in pressure and shape of the magnetosphere has NO effect on earth weather?

i dont mean heat btw

xploder

reply to post by XPLodER

Solar flares don't really affect the magnetosphere but in any case the "pressure" you are talking about occurs at the magnetopause, at a distance of about 40,000 miles in space. There is no atmosphere for it to affect.

reply to post by XPLodER


In addition to what Phage just said above, I had already replied to someone else with the same objection (I didn't think it was that hard to read every post of a 2-page thread, but oh well...) that even the largest of CMEs barely dent the magnetosphere, let alone the atmosphere, and what does reach the atmosphere is only enough to interfere with electronics, not weather. Anyway, before we have to come up with any reason why solar flares don't affect the weather, the other side should find some evidence to suggest that they do, in fact, affect the weather.

Also, like I said in my first post, the entire history of nuclear tests have probably affected the weather more than solar flares and CMEs combined.

reply to post by CLPrime


i cant show proof of interaction between solar flares and direct effects on earth,
but as theory goes i can "theroize" a possability for others to "contemplate"
earth weather is an electrical phenomonon (stay with me here)
the spiral nature of weather patterns follow an electrical "eddy current" interaction between the core of the earth and the crustal elements, energy enters the system (core) thought the poles after being "directed" by poler magnetic feild lines. this energy is channeled to the core and is "expressed" outwards in all directions from the core. this "expressed" energy must transverse throught the crust of the earth on its path outwards.

as this energy "interacts" with pockets of Iron ore in the crust it sets up a sympathetic "eddey current" in magnetic terms. this magnetic eddy effects the movement of air in a hydrodynamic manner and supports the "movement" of the atmosphere in a circular path, hot or cold atmosphere mix at the "top" and "bottom" of the eddy current and depending on the "amount" of hot vs cold atmosphere interaction in the eddy current depends in if the circular motion of the hydrodynamic process. the circular motion can survive past the callapse of the eddy current because of the convection of hot to cold atmosphere (like a twister)
so a very small electrical effect sets up the larger convection current in a prefered rotational direction that then supports the hot cold interaction which "powers" the weather system past the point of the eddy current collapse.

this is pure speculation but as you have said
prove this cannot be effecting circulating weather patterns
as this is but one posability

xploder

Originally posted by Phage
reply to post by westcoast

 

No.
Solar flares do not affect weather.

No offense but your taking your knowledge based off someone else who has never ever been in this same situation before. The Sun has a massive affect on our weather, believe it or not. The Sun gives us life and you think it don't affect our weather lol. If a flare reached out and barbecued one side of earth would you still have the same opinion?

How much does NASA or the USGS pay you by the way?

reply to post by Sky watcher

I didn't say the Sun does not affect weather. It is the primary driver of weather.

I said solar flares do not affect weather. The total energy released by the most powerful flares is a small fraction of the total energy released by the Sun every second.

If a flare "reached out and barbecued" any part of the Earth I would not have the same opinion. But, besides the fact that solar flares don't "reach out", that hasn't happened. Or did I miss hearing about it?

Is everyone who puts forth an opinion or information different from yours on government payroll?

Originally posted by Sky watcher

Originally posted by Phage
reply to post by westcoast

 

No.
Solar flares do not affect weather.

No offense but your taking your knowledge based off someone else who has never ever been in this same situation before. The Sun has a massive affect on our weather, believe it or not. The Sun gives us life and you think it don't affect our weather lol. If a flare reached out and barbecued one side of earth would you still have the same opinion?

How much does NASA or the USGS pay you by the way?

Greetings:

No offense, but before one jumps Phage about Earth's magnetosphere and solar flares, one might read this thread first... just sayin':

Dodged a Solar Bullet

BTW, Westcoast is certainly not on either of the payrolls you indicated. We can also add with certainty that a Kittitas County education deserves a pay grade way above what NASA or the USGS could afford.

One might read Westcoast's threads before making assumptions.

In Peace, Love & Light

tfw

reply to post by XPLodER


But, then, with no backing evidence, there's no reason for a theory in the first place. What does the theory seek to accomplish if there is nothing for it to explain? Before we start coming up with theories, I think we should first determine if there's any measurable correlation between weather systems and solar flares/CMEs. Then, if we find a positive correlation, we can theorize all we want.
Until then, there's nothing for any theory to explain.

Certainly a million-dollar study has been done on this by now...

reply to post by CLPrime


i was asked to supply proof that solar flares could create weather on earth
i have no such proof
so i offered a (semi) plausable mecanism for interaction between the flare and earth weather
which i did

to conclusivly say that solar flares do not effect weather conditions is to conclusivly say they could
we just dont know the corrilation

semantics i know but i do enjoy the debate

IMHO
the electrical nature of the solar flare is being totally dismissed by mecanical means (no direct connection)
but if the electrical energy is "channeled" by the earth and energy has to go some where
why not radiated into the atmosphere

i can not and will not talk in absolutes in this matter as i do not have proof

but to discount a connection between these two systems because the mecanism is not "obvious"
and no "proof" has been supplied is to asume total and "correct" knowledge of the system has been achived
IMHO
there is an electrical feed back loop between the sun and the earth and the magneto sphere is direct proof of this,
energy cannot be created or destroyed so this energy must go some where and do something
we cannot "see" into the core so the obvious is to focus on the atmosphere and dirive conclusions
from the things we can measure.

this means to me (no proof) that there is an electrical connection between solar flares and weather conditions on earth

i just dont know the mecanism
but i can "theorize" all day about different mecanisms that could provide for energy transfer from one system to another

xploder

reply to post by CLPrime


ps
i enjoy your style and comments this is not intended to "provoke" you
but to ask questions that are forming in my mind as i read this thread
i just enjoy your carfully crafted responces


xploder

reply to post by Phage


acually the "pressure" i was refering to was volts over amps =wats or current flow
as in the electrical sence
as the material contains a large amount of electrical flow "pressure"

as you point out the "pressure" in a magneto sphere is minimal
the "pressure" in an electrical sense is massive
xp

I just thought maybe some people would be interested in NASA's Solar Observations It shows the sun live as it is now .. check it out


SDQ Solar Dynamics
sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov...

Originally posted by XPLodER
reply to post by CLPrime

 

ps
i enjoy your style and comments this is not intended to "provoke" you
but to ask questions that are forming in my mind as i read this thread
i just enjoy your carfully crafted responces

xploder

Hmm...I didn't think I'd ever meet someone who'd enjoy that

Honestly, in considering our two rationales, I'm thinking we're not all that different in our stances. Neither of us claim to have evidence, and you're theorizing, while I'm looking for the evidence (and, once I found the evidence, only then would I feel the need to theorize). It might just take both approaches to succeed in the sciences.

However... anyone (and, I know, this doesn't include you) criticizing people like Phage and I for discounting any connection between solar flares and the weather are guilty of exactly what they're laughing at us for - coming to a conclusion without evidence.
As far as our point of view is concerned, though, this is not a case of "absence of evidence is not evidence of absence." In fact, in this case, it is. With no evidence to suggest a connection, there is absolutely no reason to assume that such a connection exists. We can theorize all we want, but, as I said, until we have evidence for the connection, our theorizing is more-or-less just a daydream and, perhaps, a way to kill time on a rainy afternoon.

As for me, it's a warm and sunny evening here where I am, so I think I'm gonna get outside... and maybe come up with a pointless theory or two. Even I do that every once in a while.
Okay, all the time.

reply to post by XPLodER

Are you speaking of the electrojets within the magnetosphere? Not the magnetic field itself.

Since the ionosphere is affected by solar flares, the electrojets are too but they are far removed from the lower atmosphere where weather is formed.

Originally posted by Phage
reply to post by XPLodER

 

Are you speaking of the electrojets within the magnetosphere? Not the magnetic field itself.

Since the ionosphere is affected by solar flares, the electrojets are too but they are far removed from the lower atmosphere where weather is formed.

edit on 5/30/2011 by Phage because: (no reason given)

there is a "polar" electrojet (not sure what its called) and it is this reigion (although high in the atmosphere) could still impact on the flow of the higher atmosphere (like stiring a cup of liquid from the surface tension of the liquid (atmosphere) on its outer most surface.

kinda like "blowing" on the top of a cup of water through a straw
the main bulk of the liquid is uneffected untill the surface tension "creates" an eddey or flow of the surface tension in a direction and hydro dynamically the whole amount of water is effected into a "flow"

the electro jet is like the flow from the straw and the upper atmosphere is like the surface tension of the water
what happens higher up in this example through hydrodynamics, also to a lesser degree happens at the bottom of the glass ( i realize the closed nature of the example)


xploder

edit to add i have no direct proof of this

reply to post by XPLodER

In a glass of water the density is the same throughout.

The auroral electojet lies in the D and E layers of the ionosphere. The D layer descends to an altitude of about 50km. At polar regions the troposphere (where weather occurs) reaches an altitude of about 9km. The atmosphere at 50km is too thin to have any effect produced as you described. You need another theory.

OMG.....this is great. I was really only joking. We have been suffering one of the most miserable springs on record with record rainfall (which is A LOT when people from the Pacific Northwest start complaining)

Actually, the sun JUST came out so I grabbed my laptop and am now sitting in glorious sunshine. Maybe I was right?? Wait! No!! I didn't mean it, honest!!!!

I have to say that I have thouroughly enjoyed the conversation between brilliant minds (not sarcasm, I really mean that one) that my little statement has brought about. Very thought provoking, which I always love.

To throw my REAL two cents in: I see the maximum of the suns cycle as an indicator for temps to come. That was where my jab at the solar flare comment stems from. perhpas my perception is off (which may be, I am by no means well versed on solar action), but would not a solar maximum correlate with our temps? Not to say that a solar flare is going to bring us heat, but the reving up of the suns cycle would, which the flares are a part of?

(thank you, btw, for those that came to my defense. )

reply to post by westcoast

Some correlation between certain long term weather patterns and the long term solar cycle has been observed. The problem is "correlation does not imply causation" and a solid mechanism for the effect hasn't really been established.

The total energy reaching Earth from the sun varies by only 0.1 percent across the solar cycle. Scientists have sought for decades to link these ups and downs to natural weather and climate variations and distinguish their subtle effects from the larger pattern of human-caused global warming.

www.sciencedaily.com...

Originally posted by Phage
reply to post by XPLodER

 

In a glass of water the density is the same throughout.

The auroral electojet lies in the D and E layers of the ionosphere. The D layer descends to an altitude of about 50km. At polar regions the troposphere (where weather occurs) reaches an altitude of about 9km. The atmosphere at 50km is too thin to have any effect produced as you described. You need another theory.

ok so the points we can agree on are as follows
the "electrical pressure" from solar flares can effect the aural electrojet
the electrojet is higher than the atmosphere where we see "weather" patterns emerging from
the energy induced in the aural electrojet interacts with the uper ionosphere at a height of 50km
the atmosphere at 50 km is too thin to have a direct effect on the atmosphere at 9 km (local weather patterns)
the arual electro jet is in the vicinity of the poler magnetic feild lines

am i correct so far?

xploder