The Final Warning to Tokyo

Evacuation of a city that large wif that kind of configuration is flat-out impossible, with all due respect to those who claim otherwise. I will not belabor the point, but to give a sense of the scope of the problem, consider a tiny corner of the practicalities involved,- such as, for example, how to deal with sewage during and immediately after the theoretical evac.

Another point I'd like to address to ATS posters in particular: How many of you would be ready to hop on the FEMA trains with 30 million others, on the strength of this information alone?

reply to post by TrueAmerican


Thanks for the very informative yet frightening thread.

S&F as I will be following this one as I have your others.

They will ignore him because of stupid comments like this " It will be large, it will be so close to shore you won't have time to react!"

Any 1st year geology student knows that a tsunami that close to shore will have little impact as you need a bit of space for the wave to materialize.

But he gave his prediction...80% chance within 2 weeks so I will update this thread everyday when it doesn't happen and say hmmmm?

Of course he will try and find a way to excuse it away as always when his stuff doesn't pan out.

Originally posted by Unity_99
earthquake.usgs.gov...

There was a 5.6 too? I don't know which area but near Japan.

Luckily, the 5.6 one you're referring to, was on the other side of the world right in the middle of the southern atlantic ocean:

Earthquake Details

This event has been reviewed by a seismologist.

Magnitude 5.6
Date-Time

Tuesday, April 19, 2011 at 23:29:14 UTC
Tuesday, April 19, 2011 at 10:29:14 PM at epicenter

Location 44.410°S, 16.056°W
Depth 16.5 km (10.3 miles)
Region SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC RIDGE
Distances

3163 km (1966 miles) E (92°) from STANLEY, Falkland Islands
3167 km (1968 miles) WSW (238°) from Cape Town, South Africa

Location Uncertainty horizontal +/- 19.7 km (12.2 miles); depth +/- 5.2 km (3.2 miles)
Parameters NST=100, Nph=104, Dmin=>999 km, Rmss=1.23 sec, Gp= 50°,
M-type=body wave magnitude (Mb), Version=7
Source

U.S. Geological Survey, National Earthquake Information Center:
World Data Center for Seismology, Denver

Event ID usc0002vdd

Source

reply to post by TrueAmerican


i really hope you are wrong because if the earthquake is really taking place the whole world is going to taste it
fukushima ... do not forget another tsunami and it is the whole earth who will have to remain cloistered at home.
how can we help japanese people if we have a major quake and tsunamie and again radioactive threat, it's out of control and the economic impact...do you realize... this scenario is impossible i hope it will never happen.

You know, ever since this whole nuke thing started with the big quake, the Japanese have shown a capacity to mishandle the situation, and are being criticized for not releasing information sooner, and taking other steps to stop the radiation leakage. And the point is, the mishandling of this information could have an impact on ALL of us, not just on Japan. Can they literally handle a massive quake and tsunami right now with everything weakened, the reactors already compromised, and their government more concerned with saving face?

What makes any of you think the JMA is any different?

This post is directed at the smart Japanese citizen, period. I have no illusions about trying to sway the opinions of the Japanese government. The seismologists see this. They are not blind, only because they WANT to be.

And kro32, you are so far off the mark with that last statement about the tsunami, I don't even know where to start. PuterMan was right: stick to politics man. Cause your geology masters degree is useless in your hands.

reply to post by TrueAmerican


so what you are saying in short is that you are looking for stars and flags instead of trying to help innocent Japanese people who don't look at ATS forums.

TPTB do not want the Japanese to leave.
Massive de-population is about to
commence per their agenda and they
don't want stragglers escaping. That
would be more mouths to feed.

Originally posted by TrueAmerican
You know, ever since this whole nuke thing started with the big quake, the Japanese have shown a capacity to mishandle the situation, and are being criticized for not releasing information sooner, and taking other steps to stop the radiation leakage. And the point is, the mishandling of this information could have an impact on ALL of us, not just on Japan. Can they literally handle a massive quake and tsunami right now with everything weakened, the reactors already compromised, and their government more concerned with saving face?

What makes any of you think the JMA is any different?

This post is directed at the smart Japanese citizen, period. I have no illusions about trying to sway the opinions of the Japanese government. The seismologists see this. They are not blind, only because they WANT to be.

And kro32, you are so far off the mark with that last statement about the tsunami, I don't even know where to start. PuterMan was right: stick to politics man. Cause your geology masters degree is useless in your hands.

Well i have no desire to write a 10 page paper for you to explain the details of how tsunami's work so I will let your little thread continue on unabated. I've discovered it's useless to argue facts with you after proving you wrong time after time so have fun.

Originally posted by kro32
Well i have no desire to write a 10 page paper for you to explain the details of how tsunami's work so I will let your little thread continue on unabated. I've discovered it's useless to argue facts with you after proving you wrong time after time so have fun.

Yeah, and while you're at it, why don't you write to the families of all those that died during the 1923 great Kanto quake which sent a 39 foot tsunami into Sagami Bay? Perhaps you can convince them.

A tsunami was generated in Sagami Bay with wave heights as high as 12 m (39 ft) on O-shima and 6 m (20 ft) on the Izu and Boso Peninsulas. Sandblows were noted at Hojo which intermittently shot fountains of water to a height of 3 m (10 ft).

earthquake.usgs.gov...

See, you got nothing but a degree man...It appears you can't even search the internet. You have no clue as to what you are talking about. I showed it in the other thread, and I'll show it again here.

Originally posted by boondock-saint
TPTB do not want the Japanese to leave.
Massive de-population is about to
commence per their agenda and they
don't want stragglers escaping. That
would be more mouths to feed.

Yes, well if they want depopulation so bad, we could line up the top 5% wealthiest citizens, families, banksters/mobsters, corporate heads and royalty and blast them off out of this solar system. Or they can surrender, dismantle everything, redistribute and seek amnesty. That last one is my recommendation.

But as for allowing them any of the plans, NEVER.

Originally posted by munkey66
reply to post by TrueAmerican

 

so what you are saying in short is that you are looking for stars and flags instead of trying to help innocent Japanese people who don't look at ATS forums.

Man, are you blind? Cannot you read?

I said, it is a warning to the Japanese people, and I'll guarantee you at least one person living in Japan has probably already seen it.

But fine, if it will make you feel any better, I have sent a link to this thread to my contact at the JMA. There, happy?

retrakted statement after re reading post

i]reply to post by Unity_99


Here is an overhead map from New Scientist so you can see exactly where each quake takes place in relation to every other one...1048 so far.

www.newscientist.com...

reply to post by kro32


i sens a little hostility here , may i ask you what do you gain from telling him the OP or trying to prove hes wrong? you gain self gratitude , what does the OP gain from posting this ? he gains a clear mind ...cause if something where to happen and he knew that it was going to happen and he did not at least try to speak up , i am sure that would not set well on his mind at night , now look at what your negativity has to offer , it offers possible death for allot of people because you want to prove the OP wrong.. you say he is fear mongering .. i say NO!! he is simply keeping people aware of what could happen hes doing more then then japans government at this point ! he positively impacting the situation while your negatively preventing information , so please instead of inflating your ego why don't you work with him in figuring out how to resolve the situation , if you have data to prove he is wrong the please by all means take the floor _____________

Will they evacuate no
How can TEPCO's new owners of 10% of their stock, and 600 million dollar investment work out if they allowed people too evacuate?
(Actually i think someones Algorithm made a boo boo, but hey thats another story in itself,,)

I think with all of the planes and limited runways and boats, helicopters, you name it, it would take a year or two to get that many people off the island..... hope people start leaving before they HAVE to, because most wouldn't have a chance with those numbers... just physically impossible... start swimming maybe???

Originally posted by munkey66
reply to post by TrueAmerican

 

You cant say The goverment should warn their people and leave it at that.
If you are so sure you should be at least attampting to contact the seismology department in Japan and put forward your theory for them to look into.
just because you do not have a degree does not mean you will be ignored, there are many here who have looked at your information and starred and flagged you because they see some possibility to your theory.

At least try otherwise you are the one who will feel guilty if something happens because you didn't do everything you could to possibly save millions of lives, the only reason I could see why you don't do everything in your power to inform is because you are not sure of your own theory and just looking for stars and flags.

Ridiculous. This is not Independence Day, and this guy is not Jeff Goldblum.

Now YOU know the theory, so YOU should be warning "the siesmology department" in Japan. They are right down the hall from the nuclear department, so you can give them a shout too!

As a bit of additional food for thought:

GOCE

Is an expensive piece of hardware supposedly orbiting in one of the "pure science" missions ( 'that eventual have commercial apps'), goce says it measures the "gravity field" , This is incorrect it actually very accurately measures it's height above the the earth at any given point in it's orbit

Why is the distinction important? the purpose of GOCE is to see how far any point on the earth is above or below the geoid . The Geoid is the perfect spheroid formed if every point on earth conformed to a balance between gravity and angular momentum. Or the shape the earth would be if it were all water.

The first question one should ask themselves is , why would a government , in a world of financial crisis, spend millions ( and extend the program )on this recently?

The answer would seem to be someone is very concerned about how the earth is or could adjust to changes in the tilt and how this effects the geoid
for example :



The scale on this map is in meters above or below the perfect Geoid, if one looks at Japan clearly the eastern coast has a localized 'well above average' sitting on a 'sticking' point on the pacific subduction zone.

Now in times past the three co-incident wobbles in the earth's rotation set up various fairly predictable patterns of oscillation the small changes progressively changed the tilt axis (wobble ) of the planet in odd but fairly predictable repeated pattern as a three waveform addition progression. these account for certain places on the globes know ,expected seismic activity

The planet is not a marble (solid all the way through) as the axis wobbles around the core (and it's oblatness) respond rather quickly , the exterior conforms a bit slower ( so we add another wave form , as the time of interaction of translation change between inner and outer )

Recently three things have become important:

1: the chandler wobble of the earth's tilt stopped and has inexplicably restarted in a way not explained by any know mechanism

2: the magnetic poles are extremely rapidly running to new positions

3: between the Brazil earth quake and the fukushima earth quake ( not to mention christchurch twice ) the tilt for the planet moved almost ten inches

Clearly the core mantle relationship is trying to adjust to a new placement in relation to the geiod and spin (spheroid shape) and in the line of direct displacement one would expect japan to drop about three meters ( which in some places it has), unfortunately the LARGE subduction it sits on has now lost some sort of long standing equilibrium and it (every day ) is adjusting by sliding a bit towards conformation with the geoid.

This is if total about a thirty meter adjustment for 30% of the eastern sea board of japan ( much less for the southeastern seabord), so we are either looking at a continuous "slide" of small quakes or one big "calm' and then a lightning stroke .

At a guess I would say for places over 40meters above the Geoid in the Japanese danger zone a 100% chance of dropping at least another 3-6 meters within two years , but probably a lot sooner. Unfortunately the adjustment will almost certainly be in two parts lower and then upper .

PLEASE DO NOT STAR THIS POST , this is not something , for accolades , or recognition , if I would not have been asked I NEVER WOULD HAVE SAID A thing , perhaps I am a bad man ... in any vent it's just my opinion I may be wrong do with it as you will ...


I do believe the present scum "leaders" would never evacuate even if they were sure death himself were coming

reply to post by Silverlok


quote
"the chandler wobble of the earth's tilt stopped and has inexplicably restarted in a way not explained by any know mechanism "
unquote

Nobody told me it started again! But that is impossible!!