U.S. recession ended June 2009, NBER finds

reply to post by SLAYER69


PHEW! That's excellent news!

For the past year and 3 months I've totally thought we were still in a recession. You know.. like since we haven't had a net gain in jobs outside of Census hiring since .. er.. early 2007..

Or you know, the continuing decline in Actual Wage, or the stagnation in Wage Increase, or god, don't even get me started on the continuous decline of the housing market..

Or the fact that we are still -30% on most retirement funds from 2006

Or the fact that manufacturing has been decimated outside road construction equipment..

Sovereign Debt Crisis, Double Dip Recession, Stagflation, Pending Deflationary Spirals, Reminiscent of the Great Depression .. what the hell, why am I still hearing this all over the place..

All I know.. is it's a good thing we can put that all behind us.. the Recession is so last year now.


(explicit word) the Fed, the Government, the NBER, MSM, and everyone else who's lied to us.

www.huffingtonpost.com... bush says the Economy is Fine in 12/07

www.reuters.com... Bush saying the economy is fine in 1/08

www.youtube.com... Bush and Paulson and other Feds saying the Economy is A-Ok all through 07-08

www.youtube.com... Bush and McCain saying the Economy is fine in 09/08

www.nydailynews.com... 10/08 Bush and Paulson saying the Economy is ok nothing to fear don't cash out those retirement accounts!

During the crisis and just before the major "crisis"

We believed them then (some of us) and got hosed. WHY believe them now???

Why are people listening to the same news sources that told them to buy into Bear Stearns 12 hrs before it collapsed?

hmm, for being the end of the recession their sure is alot of cars, boats, houses and garage sales going on? come to think of it 6 out of 10 people living in idaho are on food stamps! i guess you have to be a banker to get this whole # storm that we are in

www.reuters.com...

From Jan 08'.

Bruce Kasman, chief economist at JPMorgan, the nation's third-largest bank, puts the odds of a recession at 40 percent,

They always talk crap. Same now when they say slim or slight chance of double-dip.

And the desperation from the wall street shills with their "green shoots" and "recession ended in June 2009" doesn't reflect reality.

From my point of view the recession began about 4-6 months before it was "offical". When gas prices soared all the income in the house went into getting to and from work and paying for groceries etc. no frills for quite awhile. When gas went down things got a little better but then it seemed like wall street noticed people were not spending money and everything tanked. The company I work for went in sleep mode (no hiring, letting attrition take its course with no rehireing) for quite awhile. Business was down in general 10% over previous year. In the past six months though there has been rehiring as attrition could not get any lower without impacting current customers. My companies business has stabilized and or risen a bit. I consider myself most lucky to have kept my job and nobody in my family has been effected either. I do have a couple friends who were hit with one or more job losses but who have since found good work. The wife of a good friend was also out of work for over a year but is now employed as well.

For the record I live in Northern Illinois which is considered ripe for double dip.

Thing about all of this is that this "recovery" feel very gossamer and I still wonder at Wall Street, it is certainly a fantasy land and has nothing in common with the average American.

Once again, ATS members show their ignorance.

Jobs are a LAGGING indicator....

The recession that caused the job losses is over with.... That doesn't bring the jobs back any quicker than the end of a war brings back our dead soldiers.... But it IS over.... So while the effects still linger... The cause is over.


I really wish ATS members were better educated.

Typically, recession is defined as two consecutive quarters of negative growth in the economy. Once that negative growth returns to positive the recession is over. The economy and the nations finances can still be in a bad state without being in a recession.

There are probably other definitions but that's the way i've always understood it when it's been spoken about.

"The definition of a recession is a decline in a country's gross domestic product (GDP), or negative real economic growth, for two or more successive quarters of a year."

Recession

Basically, coming out the a recession dose not mean that we are doing well. It just means that we are doing better. The reason that it take so long to determine if we are in or out of a recession is because we need time to get the statistics. That is what this story is based about, it's not about your personal situation.

This is great news. I live in one of the best employment markets in the nation according to some polls and our unemployment rate here in South Carolina is over 11 to 12 percent in the local area. Also according to a recent poll I saw on CNBC, the housing market for starter homes has one city less than an hour away from me to the north as #5 in the nation and the number one city is just to my south. Meanwhile where I live, my house has never really appreciated that much at any one time except recently when the local county got less tax revenue because of a recent change to state tax law. Suddenly the local county did a reappraisal of all of our property and suddenly all of our houses are valued a whole lot higher than they used to be. They aren't selling any better, the county just decided for tax purposes that our property was worth a lot more. They they raised my property taxes the most allowable in any one reappraisal and I'm back to paying the same taxes I paid before the state law change. It's amazing. The government can borrow and spend our money like crazy and play with the numbers and voila, we're out of recession.

reply to post by maybereal11


the reason things appear to have bottomed out is the Hidden unemployment and under employment.

Hidden unemployment Hidden, or covered, unemployment is the unemployment of potential workers that is not reflected in official unemployment statistics, due to the way the statistics are collected. In many countries only those who have no work but are actively looking for work (and/or qualifying for social security benefits) are counted as unemployed. Those who have given up looking for work (and sometimes those who are on Government "retraining" programmes) are not officially counted among the unemployed, even though they are not employed. The same applies to those who have taken early retirement to avoid being laid off, but would prefer to be working. The statistic also does not count the "underemployed" - those with part time or seasonal jobs who would rather have full time jobs. In addition, those who are of working age but are currently in full-time education are usually not considered unemployed in government statistics. Because of hidden unemployment, official statistics often underestimate unemployment rates.

source

anyone that has drawn unemployment for 6 months or longer is removed from the official unemployment numbers used by the government! anyone that has given up on looking for a job is not counted. So The official unemployment numbers are rigged to always be lower. Thus giving the false impression that things are not as bad as the seem.

Since people are falling off the unemployment rolls and Job loss has slowed some it appears that we have hit the bottom but in fact we continue to slide farther down the hole. Someone earlier said the real unemployment rate was 20%. If I was a betting man, My money would be on the real unemployment rate being around 30%
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Now i live in SW MO. not a big city but not a small town. basic city services haven't been affected by the current recession. City employees had the pay frozen for now. the city is actually building a new fire station that has been desperately needed on the other side of town for many years now. so they will probably be hiring a few firefighters by next year. the county i live in is struggling but they are making ends meet and haven't cut services. I think its due to both the city and country being more responsible with the tax revenue they have collected in the past and planning for hard times better than some places.

Now a town about 20 miles south of me is in panic mode. they didn't plan very well and have already said that they have to lay off half their police force ( 20 officers) and half of the fire department (20 firefighters) because they couldn't afford to pay them and maintain their equipment. I heard on the local new tonight that this same city had a city council meeting tonight to discuss next years budget. With the tax revenue they received this year and expect to get this next fiscal year they can cover their budget with the reduced number of police and fire fighters But if an emergency popped up, flood, tornado, bad ice storm this winter etc. they would not have the money in their budget to handle it and would have to look at grants or loans to cover the emergency.

For sale signs pop up on houses in my area every day. the house across the street from me has been on the market for 6 months now. no offers nothing. the house right next to mine spent 8 months on the market and a couple bought it. they are remodeling it and plan to put it back on the market so it will continue to sit empty. the house next to it has been on the market for 5-6 months now. no lookers for it either. houses all through my neighborhood are for sale all been on the market for 5 months plus with no buyers.

new housing in my city has fallen from 32 new building permits this time last year to 9 this year and they are for custom built homes not the typical developer deal. My mom got laid off from her job in 2009. spent a year unemployed.She was called back to work at the same company doing the same job. but with a massive pay cut. the company was slowing hiring people back but have started laying people off again because of lack of work. its a manufacturing company. they hired these folks back because they got a small boost in orders but now those orders are almost finished so they no longer need the workers they hired back. but yet they are spending millions of dollars buying new machinery go figure.

I closed my small buisness in late 2008 after watching the writting on the wall for the better part of a year before. in late 2006 early 2007 i started to notice a trend in some of my best customers who had good to excellent credit that they was being denied credit. I'm talking DR's Laywers etc. through the end of 07 and all through 08 i watched my profits slowly get smaller and smaller and my overhead growing and growing. until it got to the point that it was either close the business or go into bankruptcy. But i was one of the lucky ones in the fact that i considered my business as a second job. I worked for another company full time and ran my business as well. so i had my other job to fall back on. but the whole point of my business was to one day beable to quit working for someone else and work for myself and be the boss.


So to answer your question Slayer am i better off now or before Obama took Office? No i am not better off now. i would have made more money running my own buisness than taking the huge pay cuts i have taken to keep working for someone else.

Originally posted by SLAYER69

Here we go...

OK so who are they trying to kid here? We still have huge unemployment. A runaway deficit and we have our military spread through out the world. We voted for change, that's about all I have left when I stick my hand in my pocket these days, Is change.

So the stimulus spending helped? Obama has done some good. I don't think the stimulus spending did as much as they claim. [If I'm wrong here please show me where I am]

Hows the economy where you live?

For once I agree with you which is very rare Slayer69. But let us try and think a little bit more out of the box.

Yes this announcement is a sham.
But it is a sham designed to exonerate a sham government to begin with. And I do mean a sham government. Think of Hollywood sitcoms and that would more closely resemble what we Americans have been lead to believe is representing us.

The stimulus action was nothing more than a highway robbery of what worth was left in the USA. It is all gone now... So too is the economy.

I live in Texas and we are supposed to be a success story compared to the rest of the USA. Well this success story more closely resembles the recession of the seventies. Were you around for that? I was. The only thing we are doing in Texas is trying to make do and wear out. There are no new jobs here. There is no housing market. There are plenty of empty closed down car lots. And there is only inflation amongst stagnate wages. So how is Texas such a success story one might ask? Only because we have not suffered as many massive lay-offs as the rest of the country has, though the lay-offs are a ongoing affair down here. That is all.

I think it was said best when it was said that we are not in a recession at all. But in a adjustment to a new standard of living that globalism has locked us into.

There just might not ever be a recovery. Just more lies designed to make us feel better in the mist of our debt misery spurned on by scarcity.

That's my opinion.

yea sure it ended
that's why there is this article

Nevada has highest unemployment rate in history last month 14.4%

Do they seriously believe the recession ENDED in 2009? Or is this more of their brainwashing?

I have been filing for Unemployment Benefits for the last 3 months! This is the first time I've needed to do that since the early 90's.

If more and more people are being impacted by this recession, then HOW can they say it ended in 2009?

I won't consider the recession/depression resolved until I am earning the same income I did 3 years ago.


The recession ended in 2009. Ha!




Boondock:

And I'm part of that 14.4% now.

Originally posted by Nivcharah
Do they seriously believe the recession ENDED in 2009? Or is this more of their brainwashing?

I have been filing for Unemployment Benefits for the last 3 months! This is the first time I've needed to do that since the early 90's.

If more and more people are being impacted by this recession, then HOW can they say it ended in 2009?

I won't consider the recession/depression resolved until I am earning the same income I did 3 years ago.


The recession ended in 2009. Ha!




Boondock:

And I'm part of that 14.4% now.

edit on 9/21/2010 by Nivcharah because: (no reason given)

funny you should mention that CNN viewers beileve its over.

Well Economy is improving and so there are very less chance of double dip. Moreover the people are investing in share market. new investment tax credit is declared and many other factors are making the economy positive. I guess the companies have lot of work but they were waiting for the positive environment and little security to hire people. the environment is getting better and the companies will start hiring within next 2 to 6 months and there will be again good growth rate. So in my opinion the economy should be improving very soon.

A viewer complaining about the poll vote at the article.

I find it disheartening that the majority of people voted "I don’t care what economists say. The recession isn’t over." None of the economists have stated that hard times are over, but you can't argue with the data that the economy has been growing since June 2009; we sound uneducated when we do that. Now here's to hoping that the unemployment rate will improve in the near future (especially in my town)

Stunning stunning amounts of ignorance on display here. Its not even as if understanding what is meant by the end of a recession is hard - its explained in the article. incredible how many people just don't, or can't process a simple article.

I understand everyone's frustration but the word recession has a different definition from an Economist's point of view. The numbers show that the recession is and has been over even though our mainstream definition for it doesn't agree. Yes, the country is very much unemployed and the housing market is still very weak but in real economic terms the recession is over. I am not an economist, not trying to portray one.

Well there you go your daily brainwashed american viewers.
The viewers fail to understand one simple logic, with any computer programs or software its pretty easy to fake a data of anything really.

reply to post by SLAYER69


Sure, Then all you have to do is convince those 9 Million !! Umericans that are forced to
work Part-Time that the recession is OVA.

But that's not even the K-Way-zy Bit

There are more People doing Part-Time work now than before the last Financial Crisis.
And the Banks are back to doing the same thing as before, giving money away to anyone
who'll take it.

Sort of reminiscent of Bush declaring the Iraq War was over in 2003, and 7 years Later......

Originally posted by HunkaHunka
Once again, ATS members show their ignorance.

Jobs are a LAGGING indicator....

The recession that caused the job losses is over with.... That doesn't bring the jobs back any quicker than the end of a war brings back our dead soldiers.... But it IS over.... So while the effects still linger... The cause is over.


I really wish ATS members were better educated.

Talk about being a hypocrite!

Please, explain oh educated one how exactly the cause of the recession is "over" as you put it. Please explain how policies have changed. I'll not hold my breathe.

It does not matter here, where I live. Another winter is coming and many elders, women and children will be going without heat. Many will survive by using their kitchen stove until the heating coil gives out or, a fire starts. Obama made many promises and has kept none. Where is the bail out for my people? The recession / depression / continues for all that are a part of 3rd world America.

Originally posted by HunkaHunka
Once again, ATS members show their ignorance.

Jobs are a LAGGING indicator....

The recession that caused the job losses is over with.... That doesn't bring the jobs back any quicker than the end of a war brings back our dead soldiers.... But it IS over.... So while the effects still linger... The cause is over.


I really wish ATS members were better educated.

Once again you show your intelligence.

In Economic Depressions employment is not considered a lagging indicator due to the decreased supply of money at the consumers level (ie, Deflation) because employers cannot continue hiring until the monetary supply increases and thus expands the service industries, so the two ways in which a recession ends is a sudden increase in demand, or the monetary base increases (either through Job growth or artificial inflation)

Our Government opted for Artificial Inflation as "jobs" programs failed miserably. The only sections of the economy that are expanding target specific stores in the Service industry, the Medical field and in the Durable Goods sections its almost entirely related to construction material for road and government project.

Hardly a "recovery" or ending of a Depression.

The Government took the exact same steps with the exact same results in 1930-1938 .. and in fact in 1930-31 we saw our "economy" inflate before the Deflationary Spiral knocked everything out. The big problem was, in fact, not enough people could be employed long enough at a livable wage, and thus, the consumer portion of the economy tanked.

In a normal recession Jobs are a lagging indicator. In a Depression unless you hit "rock bottom" which we have not, employment is a "Current Indicator"

Not to mention the fact that EVERY other economic indicator right now points: Negative. As government coffers empty and are not replenished and "stimuli" is decreased we will see the second wave of the Depression hit us full force.

I know you only care about Obama in all this and your Democrats so I will give you the benefit of the doubt: In almost all cases the President has no control over the economy outside of taxation.

reply to post by SLAYER69


As someone who works in the financial industry, let me say that it's a bit like making the claim, for months my car ran worse and worse. Several months back, it quit running at all, therefore, it is no longer getting worse. You get the idea. The economy hit bottom and appears to be staying there. Due to future increased tax load and additional costs (tremendous costs) associated with the government takeover of healthcare, no one is hiring and nobody is willing to make investment in capital equipment. The basic problem is that we have marxist redistributive policies eminating from the administration and businesses are hoarding cash in an attempt to survive the coming storm. Once we have a permanantly reduced tax load and a business friendly environment (businesses are no longer subject to financial assault by the administration) things have the potential to rapidly improve. In short, we'll either get rid of this congress and Obama over the next couple of years and substantially grow the economy, having learned that marxist redistributive policies lead to financial disaster and a lower standard of living, or we'll keep the status quo and undergo a complete collapse, in which case you may consider investing in gold, guns and groceries.

reply to post by Styki


GDP for anyone who has ever studied economics is a long standing joke.. there are so many things counted that shouldn't be and are not counted that should be. A Government can basically inflate a single targeted sector of the economy (in our case it was banking) and declare over all economic growth.

The BANKS never posted actual profits, what happened was that in 2009 Congress changed the Mark to Market Rule, which meant banks no longer had to post "Actual Estimated Value of Liabilities" example:

Sell a Mortgage for $100k
House value decline to $80k
Bank has to show -$-20k loss

Under the new rules and the same situation, House decline $-20k
Bank reports House = $100k and post no "loss"

So the banks could ONLY post their profit (hence once the rule changed "record" profits) If you can only post your profit and all your losses (very few ways a bank can thus loose money) are covered up ... everyone thinks it's all good. because how many people know about the Mark to Market rule anyways besides total geeks??

But it saved the banks, fooled us, and artificially boosted the GDP and ended the recession ..... even though technically it hasn't done anything at all except put blinds over the banks Books.

puhlease!

I've seen more houses for sale on my neck the woods in a long time. I have also seen more people pay with credit cards in a long time. it is about 8 out of 10 people pay with credit for pizza. I know they are just trying to get people to trust the economy, but look at all the bailouts for the rich and the middle class hasn't got anything since the GWB bailout. I am sick of the corporations getting stuff.