Hindenburg Omen: Is a Stock Market Crash Imminent?

Originally posted by airspoon


Again, we need this to happen sooner rather than later. It's not as if we can avoid it happening and the longer we wait, the less chances that we will be able to recover with freedom in mind.

--airspoon

I agree. The RIGHT thing to do would have been to let the whole thing fall and NOT bailout anyone. All we did was create more wealth for those who least deserve it, and more debt for those who cant afford it. We bought time, not a solution, and we are dragging out the suffering.

We need to just let the cards fall where they may, and stop handing out welfare checks to the mega rich, and rebuilt this nations economy based on common sense and what is good for the People, not the corporations.

Originally posted by Bordon81
The real Hindenburg airship lost altitude slowly as the flames devoured the overhead support. Many of the casualties waited till the passenger cabin made landfall before exiting including the captain and they later died from the horrible burns. This event took place in 1937 before the US took sides in WW2.

Is there any special reason why this market signal named after the Hindenburg disaster? They could have named it after any of a plethora of historical harbingers or disasters. Is there a possible conspiracy here?



[edit on 20-8-2010 by Bordon81]

James Miekka, the father of the Omen, said he initially picked the term "Titanic" but found out it was already taken.

Also, the second Hindenburg Omen in as many days. This one much more solid than the first. This is genuinely alarming news. I urge anyone in the market to stay short. This crash will be like nothing we've seen in our lifetime.

www.zerohedge.com...

[edit on 8/20/2010 by Mr Poopra]

Another Hindenburg Omen confirmation today and the DOW has been dropping like a rock in the past week.

www.zerohedge.com...

Originally posted by Erasurehead
Another Hindenburg Omen confirmation today and the DOW has been dropping like a rock in the past week.

www.zerohedge.com...

This is ridiculous. James Miekka sold all his stocks.

www.blanchardonline.com...

I wish it would just crash already. The suspense is getting annoying, lets get on with the show!

reply to post by Erasurehead


Never listen to financial info from an analyst without first doing your own homework.


Here is the issue with all of this hindenberg nonsense and "oh it looks just like 1929" drivel....


The US markets are just that.... They bend and break on domestic news, even when it doesn't matter to the rest of the worlds markets. The hindenberg omen is a technical indicator. Those of us who trade know that if the fundamentals are good technical indicators mean nothing (long term).... Or vice versa, if the fundamentals are crappy, technical indicators mean nothing...

So many companies BEAT expectations of the street... Are flush with cash, and have cash-flow numbers right where they need to be. Yet the stocks are at historically low levels.... That means they are cheap.

Also, as for the 1929 bandwagon.... Global trade came to a halt.... But now global trade is sky rocketing....

What about jobs? Not a leading indicator of recovery... You know what is? Companies spending money.... Have you seen all the M & A activity going on?


Now i will say, that if the republicans don't take over the house in november, this will continue to fall a bit more this year... But if the repubs win.... Get a new roof, befause the Dow will go right through the one we have.


The stock market right now is dealing with many factors.... Traditional august slumps, domestic bad news etc.

Matter of fact, watch the news.... The numbers from the philly fed the ore day on jobs, could have used 20k more.... But you know what, in another article we find out that the deep water drilling ban caused the loss of 20k jobs.... Go figure...

There is plenty of good news.... Its just that the individual investor is spooked.... Which is bad for them because the equity market is currently heavily discounted as it is...

reply to post by Mr Poopra


Funny thing is that article doesn't show you all the times the HO occurred and the market rallied afterward instead of crashed eh?

Originally posted by xxshadowfaxx
I wish it would just crash already. The suspense is getting annoying, lets get on with the show!

Haha, samzies!.

C'mon.... hurry up and crash please, sick of living like a zombie earning fake paper.

And I want the excuse to leave the city and live in my permaculture garden without seeming like a total nutbag

check this...
the earning season is over, so in a week or in three months, somewhere in there....the usd will cause the market to dip big time, but not below 7000 for the dow...then the us dollar will tank, which drives the dow and the s&p up for years...way above the 14,000 level....twice then triple that.
how? by printing more money....true story

Originally posted by GBP/JPY
check this...
the earning season is over, so in a week or in three months, somewhere in there....the usd will cause the market to dip big time, but not below 7000 for the dow...then the us dollar will tank, which drives the dow and the s&p up for years...way above the 14,000 level....twice then triple that.
how? by printing more money....true story

That is an interesting view you have on the market crash. You do realize that is what has been going on for the last 18 months don’t you? It’s not working.
The reason its not working is because businesses will always be able to see through what ever the fed is doing and work around there policies to maximize profits. In this case they are using the new found cash that the fed is printing to acquire new businesses in stead of hiring new employees.
So to some up. The fed can print and print and it will do no good. The only way we have a chance to get out of this mess is to change the way government interacts with the free market. But it may be to late for that. At least for the short term.
Remember elections have consequences.

reply to post by Mr Poopra


Just to add from your link, good find by the way! Guess this is the true test for the omen if its creator is hedging all his bets on it:

Analyst sells all his stocks as market-crash indicator resurfaces Friday It's time to "get into the storm cellar" with some gold for protection. The creator of the "Hindenburg Omen" theory says that dreaded sign of an impending stock crash occurred again on Friday, Aug. 20. According to Barron's:

"James Miekka, a blind oracle credited as the author of the Hindenburg Omen, a predictor of stock-market crashes that has been getting a lot of buzz, sold his stock positions last week.

"The Omen was triggered Aug. 12, when new 52-week highs and lows exceeded 2.5% of issues traded on the New York Stock Exchange, the 50-day moving average rose and three other factors confirmed a confused market. It happened again on Friday, he says.

"There's quibbling over the exact criteria, especially considering new fixed-income products masked as equities, but Miekka is confident that the latest triggers are like spotting a funnel cloud. After all, Omens preceded the 1987 crash and the 2008 bear market, as well as other downturns.

"Miekka didn't sell all his stock two years ago, but this time, weighing historical September slides, negative options signals and journalist inquiries, he opted to 'get into the storm cellar' until the fall. 'I'm battening down the hatches,' Miekka tells Barron's."

It took a while to decide whether to post a new thread or bump one from the last time it happened. I decided to bump the best of the old ones I found through search and link the other two.

www.abovetopsecret.com...
www.abovetopsecret.com...
www.abovetopsecret.com...
www.abovetopsecret.com...

And for those unfamiliar with a Hindy a link to the wiki.

Hindenberg Omen

We've had three Hindenburg signals in a row this week. It takes two for a confirmation more than that doesn't seem to make the event more or less likely. Every NYSE crash since 1985 has been preceded by a Hindy. One can expect a greater than 5% decline within the next 40 days. The signal has an accuracy of around 75% in predicting 5% or greater declines in the NYSE.

Just some food for thought for those that find this interesting.