Which Democrat Senator will lose their seat?

There is a lot of talk about how many senate seats the Democrats are going to lose. For a while, it looked like the Republicans might take it back. The outlook for the Dems is not pretty in any way it is put in the 2010 elections. Without President Obama running, there will be no coattails to ride on like there will be in 2012 (which should be a better year for Democrats).

North Dakota: With Senator Byron Dorgan retiring this year, ND should be an easy win for the Republicans.

Arkansas: Almost as easy as ND, the unpopular Blanche Lincoln will be defeated with ease. (The primary challenger would be defeated by an even larger margin as he is quite liberal in a very conservative state.)

Nevada: Harry Reid never looked more vulnerable. Although he has a good sized war chest, his negatives have caught up with him this time. Unless he steps down, look for another easy win by the Republicans.

Indiana: This red state will send a Republican to the Senate after Evan Bayh leaves. He was in danger of losing anyways, and decided not to lose face also.

Delaware: The popular Rep Castle should sweep into office here. He is a rare moderate Republican running.


Then there are the races that Republicans can win, but will have a bit more difficulty doing so:

Colorado: Sen Bennet's main problem is he is not a big name. He has been doing a bit better, so his chances of surviving are up a bit.

Illinois: Rep Kirk is running against Democrat Alexis Giannoulias, who is doing a bit better now in the polls. Kirk has his work cut out for him, but can pull off a win if he gets enough Chicago votes and there is low voter turnout.

I would put Pennsylvania here, but Arlen Specter is one of those candidates who is very good at getting out his base.

This puts the gain of Republicans at 7, giving the Democrats 50 (with 2 Independents caucusing with them) to 48 Republicans. With Joe Lieberman facing a tough reelection in 2012, do not be surprised if he switches to the Republican side to give them 49 seats.

It will be interesting to see how the health care reform bill plays into this election cycle. Will it rally the liberal base into voting for their candidates? Also, can they explain what is in the bill for the moderates and independents out there? It is a given the Republicans will run on repealing it, but how will the Democrats run?

The Democrats ran on getting some type of health care passed, so that may give a few points to them. Now if they can explain what they passed, they might get a few more.

The next big deal is financial reform which the Republicans are opposed to. Can the Democrats get something that actually protects the people and not Wall Street enacted?

Stay tuned for more...

It is interesting how a primary can change the outlook for November in some areas.

1. Arkansas: No change here, as Rep John Boozeman will cruise to a victory this fall. Blanche Lincoln (who will win the run-off as a conservative challenger's voters will go for her) is too far behind in the polls to play catch up. Don't expect the National Democrats to spend any money here.

2. Pennsylvania: Arlen Specter was not going to win in the fall, but now Joe Sestak is the nominee to face Pat Toomey. Rep Sestak has an impressive military career and is actually a moderate Democrat which will play well with independents. This seat now looks like it might stay in Democratic hands, but their work is still cut out for them.

3. Kentucky: Once a sure fire red state, the politics of Rand Paul could make the senior population go for the moderate who is running against him Jack Conway. One of the platforms of the Libertarians is the elimination of Medicare and privatizing of social security, which is not popular at all with this very reliable voting bloc. Dr Paul is the favorite so far, but he will have to defend himself here.

4. Indiana: I think Dan Coats will probably win this one as he is a safe Republican. Although his lobbying will hurt his credentials to the Tea Party crowd, they still vote reliably Republican. Brad Ellsworth might have a slight chance to keep this blue if he can persuade the Democrats to come out and if the Tea Party side does feel apathy.

5. Connecticut: The Democrats frowned, then smiled, and now are frowning again. It seems that Richard Blumenthal stated that he served in Vietnam. (Update) The long version of the video recording has been released, and here is the parts of what was stated:

Early in the speech he says: "I really want my words of thanks as someone who served in the military during the Vietnam era in the Marine Corps -- by the way, do we have any Marine Corps veterans here? Raise your hand."

Later in the speech he commits the offending gaffe: "We have learned something important since the days that I served in Vietnam."

This does clear things up, and the damage might not be as bad as some would have us believe. It does not seem to be a purposely done statement, but a gaffe in what was meant. This should play out better for Richard Blumenthal now.

6. Nevada: Harry Reid still in trouble here, even though they are having a good time with the chicken statement. Arlen Specter shows that incumbency is not a good thing, and Sen Reid should consider stepping down, or the Democrats should run a strong candidate against him.

7. Illinois: Still too early to tell, but I am predicting Rep Kirk pulls out a victory be a squeak. He is a moderate, and that will not hurt so bad here.

8. North Dakota and Delaware are turning red, with Colorado likely joining them.

9. Florida looks like it will stay red, as Crist is breaking up the Democratic vote, leading to a comfortable win for Rubio.

IMO Democrats all over the country and in a heap of trouble.

The Oil spill is not helping their cause either as I see most Americans seeing it as a failure of leadership for the Dem Administration.

I bet you the GOP works that angle hard in the elections.

I expect a lot of blue states from November's election to go Red or at least red leaning.

I hate to say it but the Tea Party will have a substantial effect on these elections.

~Keeper

reply to post by tothetenthpower


The problem with the GOP using the oil spill to their advantage is they still have the "Drill, Baby Drill!" mantra in the party. I do agree that the spill will have effects, but it might backfire on the GOP. So far here are some areas of worry/relief for the Democrats:

1. Health Care Reform: This needed to be done, and it is not popular on either side. Conservatives want to repeal it, liberals did not think it went far enough. The lack of a public option also hurts in many liberal areas. The Democrats have to sell the good stuff in the bill and on that note many Republicans are taking credit for the Medicare fixes in this bill. All in all, passage of this landmark bill will help Barack Obama who kept his campaign pledge on reforming the system. It won't hurt Democrats as badly as it was thought.

2. Financial Reform: This is a popular bill and should help the Democrats out this fall. Republicans were going to filibuster it at every moment, but saw how much the voters hate Wall Street.

3. Immigration Reform: Another tough area that needs to be tackled. It was going to be put off for a while, but the Arizona law has changed many minds. It will be dealt with in the next few weeks, but will create headaches for members of both parties.

4. Oil Spill: Who is in charge of the clean-up? The Coast Guard is in charge of this disaster. The real problem is there are no proven methods on how to deal with this environmental mess. BP lied about being able to respond if a spill happened, and was approved to drill there by the Bush Administration. Both parties have much blame to go around for this one, and as Barack Obama takes the heat (as he is) it will come off as a good thing that someone is saying the buck stops here. It also shows how powerful Big Oil is, next to Wall Street.

I do think that the Democrats will keep the House, but not by much. The Senate is in better shape for the Democrats now that Arlen lost his election.

The Tea Party movement is a blessing and a curse for the GOP. The blessing is that they are Republicans who do vote. The curse is that they are scaring off the moderates and independents who are needed to win federal offices.

I am projecting 51 Dems, 3 Ind and 46 Rep for the Senate. The Democrats will lose Delaware, North Dakota and Arkansas for sure.

reply to post by tothetenthpower


President Obama is going to introduce much tougher regulations for oversea drilling on Thursday, and also plans to be in New Orleans on Friday. The main problem with the spill is that no one has the technology available to stop the leak as of this moment. The regulations will address that weakness, and should get through Congress. It will be interesting to see if they get any opposition there.

Also, Don't Ask, Don't Tell is on its way to being repealed. It will be voted in the House as early as tomorrow (Thursday), and is one of the things that will help stir up the liberal base. (It is still iffy if it will pass the House as of right now, but it only needs 50 votes with Biden as the tie breaker in the Senate as the bill is a rider on the budget and cannot be filibustered.)

New update on the Senate seats:

1. It looks like Harry Reid will get his dream opponent of Sharron Angle this November. He is by far not out of danger of losing his seat, but having someone as colorful as Ms Angle cannot hurt his chances. He has to get financial reform passed and Don't Ask, Don't Tell repealed to help show he is getting things done. Health care reform is slowly growing in acceptance as people find out what is in it for them. Many are now calling this a toss-up, which is much better than likely Republican.

2. In Illinois, Mark Kirk has been getting flack for the same thing that state AG Blumenthal in Connecticut got into by embellishing his record. The problem with Rep Kirk is he has done several errors in his record, from an award to stating he served in Iraq. Illinois has a large veterans population and it might affect his polling. This might help Alexis Giannoulias, who has been either below or tied in most polls.

3. Arkansas: Blanche Lincoln's fending off of LG Halter's challenge will not likely affect the outcome of this race, where Mr Boozman will cruise to a victory in November. She is just stalling the outcome for now.

FiveThirtyEight.com has updated their Senate forcasts. Some interesting analysis there on some key races:

www.fivethirtyeight.com...

It does seem that the Republicans will easily win four seats from the Democrats: Arkansas, Delaware, Indiana and North Dakota. It is interesting that Nevada has become a toss up state instead of a win for Republicans since the nomination of Sharon Angle, but it is still going to be a fight as Nate Silver puts it:

Nevada. That this race has become competitive again is mostly about Sharon Angle, but not completely so: Harry Reid's favorability/approval numbers have also improved some, and are now merely godawful rather than mind-bogglingly wretched.

It is also interesting that Florida will possibly be won by an Independent Charlie Crist. If that happens, watch as both parties sweeten the pot to have him caucus with them. It might boil down to who controls the Senate if Republicans gain at least eight seats and Joe Lieberman decides to caucus with the Republicans as rumored. (Another rumor is Ben Nelson switching sides to the GOP.) Florida will be one of the most watched states during election night.

Colorado, Illinois and Pennsylvania are toss up states still, though Pennsylvania is in much better shape for the Democrats now that they have a new nominee. Washington is another state to look at once its primary is done. It could be another state the Democrats have to defend.

538.com updated their Senate projections list and it does not look good for Democrats:

www.fivethirtyeight.com...

Pennsylvania has Toomey beating Sestak in the poll by 3 points. Nevada has Angle beating Reid by 2 points. Colorado went from toss up to lean Republican.

West Virginia is now having a special election in the fall, but that is not terrible news as it will have a popular Democrat running for the seat. Plus the Republican candidate will be running for her House seat at the same time, which might mean her people just voting for her in that one race.

Nate Silver is using the likely voter polls instead of all of them combined. This makes the races look tougher for the Democrats as likely voter scenarios tend to favor the Republicans.

But all is not lost as Pennsylvania and Nevada are closer than they were a few months ago, and Republicans have to defend some of their own states in order to win control of the Senate. Also, the race in Delaware is closing in with Castle only up by 4 points.

Still, Blanche Lincoln should start filling out employment applications as she will be returning home to her native Arkansas.

For political wonks like me, November 2nd will be a very interesting night.

I am still projecting Democrats hang on to their majority, with Crist from Florida caucusing with Democrats giving them the 51 votes they need. It could be 50 if Lieberman decides to go over to the Republicans as he is going to have a very tough reelection in 2012 should he decide to run. Mr Lieberman would need money from the Republicans as he could have trouble raising the money running as an Independent again.

Edited to add

[edit on 7/20/2010 by kidflash2008]

In a nutshell, this is what it looks like for the fall mid-term elections:

Safe Republican: Arkansas and North Dakota. Both Democratic candidates are trailing by huge margins. There is no need to spend any money on these states.

Likely Republican: Indiana. Former Sen Coats is running, and although he is an insider and former lobbyist, he is well liked. Again, the polls are a little closer, but not much.

Lean Republican: Colorado, Delaware and Pennsylvania. Colorado has yet to hold its primaries, so this could change. Delaware was in safe Republican territory but polls are tightening up. Pennsylvania shows Democrats have their work cut out for them, although Sestak is polling much better than Specter was. These races can be called competitive, but a lot of work and get out the vote is needed to hang on to these seats. Interestingly, once safe seat Kentucky is in this category which means it is possible for the challenger to switch it to the Democratic side. Kentucky and Missouri are two states the Republicans have to defend to keep from turning, although polls show them in their favor still.

Toss ups: Illinois, Nevada, Washington, Florida and Ohio. Washington is on this list as a couple recent polls show the Democratic incumbent in a dead heat with Rossi. Illinois is also a dead heat, with Kirk needing to get out the vote to turn the state. Factors not in his favor are a quick end to the Blagojavich trial and questions on his military record (he seems to have exaggerated it more than a few times). That Nevada is competitive again speaks volumes on who the Republicans picked to run against mega unpopular Reid. The Republicans also have to hope that Meeks and Crist split the moderate and Democratic vote so Rubio can win. But polls are suggesting that voters are dropping Meeks to support Crist. Ohio surprisingly is quite competitive, despite some major infighting between the Democrats on their nominee.

That means the Republicans have to win Nevada, Illinois, Washington, Colorado, Pennsylvania, Delaware, Indiana, Arkansas and North Dakota while holding on to Ohio, Florida, Kentucky and Missouri to get 50 seats in the Senate. That would mean trying to get a lean Democrat state to turn for control.

Lean Democrat: California and Wisconsin. I would doubt it if either of these states turned, but it is possible if there is low voter turnout and the polling in Wisconsin is correct. Wisconsin has yet to hold its primary, so the status could change back to safe Democrat. Sen Boxer has to change her approval ratings, although former CEOs do not have much love either.

For all the pundits saying the Senate will change over, the Republicans have their work cut out for them. But the Democrats also have plenty to do if they want to still have 53 or 54 seats instead of 49 or 50.

Connecticut and Colorado held their primaries on Tuesday, and the news is good for Democrats in Connecticut and so-so in Colorado. Connecticut picked Linda McMahon as the Republican nominee in an already safe Democrat area. She was the weakest candidate in a weak Republican field anyway. No change here as the Democrats are expected to keep Connecticut.

Colorado is a different matter. Sen Bennet won the primary over a challenge by Andrew Romanof. Some have suggested Romanof would of polled better than Sen Bennet. The good news for Democrats is that Ken Buck won over Jane Norton, who had been polling much higher than Ken Buck was against Sen Bennet. Ken Buck has been leading in the polls lately, but not by much. His "high heels" remark could hurt him in the fall, but low turnout will probably make this one a win for Republicans.

The Senate forecast has been updated, and the news is grim for the Democrats:

Safe Republican:

1. North Dakota
2. Arkansas
3. Indiana
4. Delaware
5. Pennsylvania
6. Colorado

Six states now are safe Republican as polling in both Pennsylvania and Colorado have been polling above 50% (with Toomey getting 53% in PA), so these states will go red in November.

Nevada, Washington, Illinois, California are now too close to call, and Republicans only need to pick off three of them to tie or win all four.

(There is strong possibility that Joe Lieberman and Ben Nelson will switch over to caucus with the Republicans also.)

Florida is going to be one to look at as Marco Rubio has a solid 40% going in to the race. That is all he needs, as Charlie Crist and Kendrick Meek fight for the moderate and independent vote. All polls show Meek will not win this one, and it is up to Crist to cipher the votes from Meed. Crist polls high 30s, so his work is cut out for him.

Link to the newer 538 site:

fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com...

Not much time to catch up, although the toss-up states are in such a way that the Democrats can still win them.

The main problem with the Democrats is that unpopular candidates are running for reelection in those contests. Plus this is not a good year for Democrats either, they might want to lick their wounds and wait for 2012, which should be a better year for them.

Upon further analysis of the forecasts, I need to amend a few things:

Pennsylvania and Colorado are not safe Republican, but lean Republican instead. Close analysis of the polls show some leads of 50%, but most show both candidates with under 50% leaving enough undecideds out there to make the races closer than what is suggested.

Add Wisconsin to the toss-up states, as many polls show the Republican challenger in the lead.

Also, I would place Florida as lean Republican as many polls are all over the place, but show Marco Rubio doing the same high 30s/low 40s.

Just when everyone thought the Democrats might lose the Senate in the fall, something happens to change things. The loss of Mike Castle in Delaware just made that state go from safe Republican to lean Democrat. What many forgot was that Delaware has a closed primary system meaning only Republicans and Democrats can vote in their respective primaries. No crossovers or Independents, which usually helps the more conservative or liberal candidates on the ballots.

Republicans can smile that Russ Feingold of Wisconsin got a strong challenger in Ron Johnson, although Nate Silver of 538 gives some good reasons as to why Mr Feingold is safer than most pundits say.

Still, the Republicans have to be hurting to lose a safe Republican seat in the fall. It will take a few days for the polls and other information to confirm this although the thinking is the Republicans will not fund this campaign.

The models of 538.com do show some gains in Wisconsin and West Virginia for the Republicans. For Wisconsin, the still popular Sen Feingold is trailing by double digit numbers. It does look like the Republicans made up for Delaware by grabbing Wisconsin. In West Virginia, the popular Democratic Governor Manchin is now polling slightly ahead of Rep Raese, making this state a toss-up.

California and Washington are good news for the Democrats, as the Democratic candidates are widening their leads. Even former Governor "Moonbeam" Brown is doing better. Some suggest the marijuana initiative in California will help with Democratic turnout on these races too.

So far, North Dakota, Arkansas and Indiana are sure bets, with Colorado, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin looking like shoo ins for the Republicans too. The latter three states still have some close polling numbers, but the Republican leads in all of those.

Illinois, Nevada and West Virginia are the toss-ups as they are very close in polling numbers.

It also looks like all Republican held seats will be retained, so they do not have to spend much money in defending those seats. The only possible scenario is Gov Crist eking out a win in Florida, but he has not made any inroads in Rep Meeks support.

With all of this, Alaska has turned to the state to watch. Most of the models show Miller winning the state. If Murkowski wins it, she will still stay with the Republicans. The Democrats ran token opposition in this race, and are probably sorry they did so now.

The latest 538 model has the Republicans gaining inroads on West Virginia and Connecticut. Wisconsin looks like it will be safe Republican now, so the chances of Republican takeover are very good. While they seemed to have lost Delaware, they are making up for it by going for WV and CT.

Safe Republican turns:

Arkansas
Colorado
Indiana
North Dakota
Pennsylvania
Wisconsin

Possible to Likely Republican:
California
Connecticut
Illinois
Nevada
Washington
West Virginia

After winning the six races, only four wins are needed to take over the Senate in the bottom six.

The one thing to look at during election night is turnout. High turnout helps the Democrats, low turnout will devastate them.

The races are running to a close with less than two weeks to go. Some better news coming out for Democrats on some Senate races, but overall it will be a good night for the GOP. Turn out will determine weather the GOP can win Pennsylvania, as the poll numbers are still showing Toomey with just under 50%. West Virginia will be an interesting race as the Republican candidate is now neck and neck, although he was leading a few weeks ago and again now. It also looks like California will stay blue, although Washington has already started voting by mail.

The House looks like it will be in GOP hands, but how many seats is still not known.

So far, Dan Coats has won Indiana which was projected. Rand Paul keeps Kentucky Republican which the Democrats were hoping they could take over. West Virgina closes in 15 minutes, which is a badly needed state for West Virgina Democrats.

Update: Bob Portman won Ohio Senate seat, WV still too early to call. The House races are not going well for Dems in Indiana. So far, not much said on turnout.

Marco Rubio and Chris Coons won Florida and Delaware. Delaware also switched from Republican to Democrat, which was expected. Republicans put their hopes on Delaware early on and now need other states to win the Senate.

Richard Blumenthal declared winner in Connecticut which was another state the Republicans thought they might have a chance in. John Boozman is declared winner in Arkansas, no surprise there.

Joe Manchin wins West Virginia which the Democrats needed badly. The Republicans have to win every state to take over the Senate (and woo Lieberman or Ben Nelson).

The Democrats are so far losing quite badly in the House. It will be a long two years ahead of us. NBC has projected the Republicans with 237 seats and Democrats with 198.

Joe Sestak is doing much better in Pennsylvania, Mark Kirk doing better than expected in suburbs. It looks like Illinois will be a red state in the Senate.

Well the election is over and most of the votes are counted. The tsunami came and did incredible damage even though the alarm bells started ringing in January. The Democrats were trounced in the House and lost six Senate seats (it looks like Bennet of Colorado and Murray of Washington will eke out wins as much of the vote left favors them). The people fired Nancy Pelosi for doing her job and kept on Harry Reid for not doing his (the pundits have been saying that one a lot).

Interestingly, many of the organizations that were blasting the Democrats with on air ads will continue to do so without any break. They want to start the 2012 elections today.

States that switched to Republican in the Senate:

North Dakota
Arkansas
Indiana
Wisconsin

Those three were expected to be won easily, and that happened.

Pennsylvania was closer than they thought it would be, but Toomey won it in the end. Illinois was close, but again Mark Kirk had a good night.

Now everyone is thinking that Barack Obama is in trouble in 2012. Two years can make a huge difference in the vote. Just ask the Democrats who were gloating two years ago.