Hurricane Researchers finally come to agreement...

Review abstract

Nature Geoscience
Published online: 21 February 2010 | doi:10.1038/ngeo779

Tropical cyclones and climate change

Thomas R. Knutson1, John L. McBbride2, Johnny Chan3, Kerry Emanuel4, Greg Holland5, Chris Landsea6, Isaac Held1, James P. Kossin7, A. K. Srivastava8 & Masato Sugi9

Abstract
Whether the characteristics of tropical cyclones have changed or will change in a warming climate — and if so, how — has been the subject of considerable investigation, often with conflicting results. Large amplitude fluctuations in the frequency and intensity of tropical cyclones greatly complicate both the detection of long-term trends and their attribution to rising levels of atmospheric greenhouse gases. Trend detection is further impeded by substantial limitations in the availability and quality of global historical records of tropical cyclones. Therefore, it remains uncertain whether past changes in tropical cyclone activity have exceeded the variability expected from natural causes. However, future projections based on theory and high-resolution dynamical models consistently indicate that greenhouse warming will cause the globally averaged intensity of tropical cyclones to shift towards stronger storms, with intensity increases of 2–11% by 2100. Existing modelling studies also consistently project decreases in the globally averaged frequency of tropical cyclones, by 6–34%. Balanced against this, higher resolution modelling studies typically project substantial increases in the frequency of the most intense cyclones, and increases of the order of 20% in the precipitation rate within 100 km of the storm centre. For all cyclone parameters, projected changes for individual basins show large variations between different modelling studies.

After many years of sniping and posturing, particularly between Kerry Emanuel and Chris Landsea, the major names in this area of climate change research have finally come to a position of agreement on the issue.

Chris Landsea is one of the researchers that deniers like to quote when he threw his dummy from the pram because the IPCC didn't bow down his position. He's one of many authors on this article and has made some further comments:

"We've really come a long way in the last two years about our knowledge of the hurricane and climate issue," said study co-author Chris Landsea, a National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration top hurricane researcher.

More in the article linked below.

Top researchers now agree that the world is likely to get stronger but fewer hurricanes in the future because of global warming, seeming to settle a scientific debate on the subject. But they say there's not enough evidence yet to tell whether that effect has already begun.

linky

Away from the frothing and misrepresentations of the lying liars and their rubes, the science continues to move forwards regardless.

Enjoy.

[edit on 21-2-2010 by melatonin]

Thanks for the excellent reporting!

Lots of people have been dreaming of huge and frightening hurricanes and tornadoes with what seems like increasing frequency and degrees of terror and awe.

Coincidence? I think not. What they describe echoes the "fewer but stronger" statements.

If one gives a measure of credence to the scientists, their agenda, and their data, and a measure of credence to the dreamers, their agenda, and their data, one gains a multi-faceted view of the very same events. Next comes the observations of all of us people out here.

Each lends validity to the other, whether in equal measure or not. One is a large piece of the puzzle to some, the other is larger to others.

Thanks for the great work. It's being added to the other pieces.

reply to post by Copperflower



Equal messure? Dream on.

Originally posted by Copperflower
Thanks for the excellent reporting!

You're welcome.

Just nice to see science plodding along in the background while the turkeys gobble away.

Originally posted by melatonin

However, future projections based on theory and high-resolution dynamical models consistently indicate that greenhouse warming will cause the globally averaged intensity of tropical cyclones to shift towards stronger storms, with intensity increases of 2–11% by 2100.

Just out of curiosity, are these the same people who said that we would have a much more violent hurricane season the last 3 years due to "Global Warming"?

Gobble Gobble.