Terrorist Attacks Can Be Predicted with Mathematical Model

Researches in university of Florida have found a mathematical way to predict when attacks will occur because there is a pattern to them. According to their models there should be in the next 6 weeks a big significant attack somewhere in the world.

The most powerful tool in the wars of the future might just be an equation.

One of the horrors of fighting a war against a loosely-organized group of insurgents, like the United States is currently doing in Iraq and Afghanistan, is the ever present threat of seemingly random attacks. But what if there was a mathematical pattern that could be used to predict those attacks? Well, researches at the University of Miami claim they've found one.

Johnson says that the model could be used to predict future attacks, as well as to run scenarios predicting the outcomes of the effects of either increasing or decreasing the size of the non-insurgent forces.

Source: blogs.miaminewtimes.com...

Source: Fox News

[edit on 11-1-2010 by sunny_2008ny]

Well as long as there are American/NATO forces stationed in Afghanistan and Iraq. The probability is very close to 50/50. So yes you can make a equation out of every possibility.

The only force that wont have such a probability is the Drones and the Fighter jets.

Every time a force leaves for a patrol. There is a 50/50 chance that they will get hit.

But i think its a lot easier to make a accurate equation of when our force will engage them. That's more like a 100% to 1. That means if we see them we will engage them. That's not the case with Taliban.





[edit on 27.06.08 by spy66]

reply to post by spy66


It is a different matter to engage Taliban or Al Qaeda, it is war, what the article says is that we can predict terrorist attacks, especially on targets in countries like USA.

Originally posted by sunny_2008ny
Researches in university of Florida have found a mathematical way to predict when attacks will occur because there is a pattern to them. According to their models there should be in the next 6 weeks a big significant attack somewhere in the world.

The University of Florida is in Gainesville not Miami.
Perhaps you should check your facts?

reply to post by Dragonsbreaths

The University of Florida is in Gainesville not Miami.
Perhaps you should check your facts?

I dont think the article says that Univ of Florida is in Miami, the source is the blog from Miami news.

IMO,we have to be very careful with how much faith we put in these computer/mathematical models.
A good example would be the climate change models which have turned out to be somewhat inaccurate.
Although its another tool which can be used,but should not be taken as 100% certain IMO.