Things are bad but not that bad.

Originally posted by eldard
reply to post by alyosha1981

 

Why do you keep comparing to 1933? The Depression just started last year. So we're still at 1930.

Due to the programs and options the government has today one cannot accurately compare the economic conditions of the great depression to what we face today.

Sure, a year has passed but that does not mean the downturn would be expected to reflect what took place in 1930. The Fed may have held off the collapse or simply prolonged it....

I've said this before. Look at the total number of employed in the US not their unemployment numbers that can be twisted.

This is from today’s employment statistics. Look at the angle of decent for the “number of employed” in thousands.
Now imagine that trend over 12 more months.



I don't believe you can create the types of high paying jobs that we need to cure this problem just by tossing TAARP money at it. You need consumers AND producers.

You would need to start adding hundreds of thousands of jobs every month for a year to stop the decline.
Can you draw that line a bit further to 2010 and seriously tell me we will all be recovering!

Anyone that can look at that graph and say things are going to get better
in a year is either in denial or delusional.

No jobs = no pay = no spending = no selling = Depression.

Originally posted by jefwane

So not only is the employment situation bad, but it's worse than is being currently reported.

Well said, S to you. And may I add, this is a topic that is more of a conspiracy than 80% of the topics on ATS right now.
We suspect why they are misleading the masses, but is there a who that is directing the media or controlling this spin.

Citizens please return to your normal lives of super consumption.

We are livestock, like chickens. We have stopped consuming and producing.
Now what would the farmer do with all those chickens that don't lay eggs?
Think Chicken Pot Pies.

Stars for Absum and jeffwane! I didn't see before that BLS planned to downgrade employment numbers, and it's good to see the graphs.

The US has cut down spending so much, that imports, a negative figure on GDP, will decline. This reflects a drastic drop in commerce, yet watch people drum that up as 'a sign of recovery'.

reply to post by Dbriefed


Thank you. Here is some more fuel. If you have time look at the graphs on the link. It is not pretty.

We need a plan to create good paying jobs to get out of this death spiral.

CAP - Oct. Economic Snapshot
A list of 11 problems with the OP's "vision"

1. The U.S. economy is still shrinking. GDP declined at an annual rate of 0.7 % in the second quarter of 2009 after falling by an annual average rate of 2.8% during the first five-quarters of the recession, from December 2007 to March 2009.

2. Job losses continue. The U.S. economy shed 263,000 jobs in September 2009. The economy has lost 7.2 million jobs since the recession began in December 2007. Close to two-thirds—or 4.5 million jobs—were lost before the economic stimulus package was enacted at the end of February 2009, and job losses have sharply declined since then.

3. Unemployment stays high among the most vulnerable. The unemployment rate was 9.8% in August 2009. The African-American unemployment rate that month stood at 15.4%, the Hispanic unemployment rate at 12.7%, and the unemployment rate for whites at 9.0%. Youth unemployment stood at a towering 25.9%. And the unemployment rate for people without a high school diploma remained high, standing at 15.0%, compared to 10.8% for those with a high school degree and 4.9% for those with a college degree.

4. The unemployed are out of a job for long periods. The average length of unemployment in September 2009 was 26.2 weeks, the median length of unemployment was 17.3 weeks, and 35.6 % of the unemployed were out of a job for 27 weeks or more. All of these indicators are at their highest level since 1948.

5. Employer-provided benefits continue to disappear. The share of private sector workers with a pension dropped from 50.3% in 2000 to 45.1% in 2007 and to 43.6% in 2008, and the share of people with employer-provided health insurance dropped from 64.2% in 2000 to 59.3% in 2007 and to 58.5% in 2008.

6. Family incomes drop sharply in the recession. Median inflation-adjusted family income fell by $1,860 to $50,303 (in 2008 dollars) in 2008 from 2007. This was the lowest family income since 1997. White family income stood at $55,530, compared to African-American family income, which was $34,218—or 61.6% of white income. Hispanic family income was $37,913 in 2008—or 68.2% of white income.

7. Poverty continues to rise. The poverty rate stood at 13.2% in 2008—its highest rate since 1997. The African-American poverty rate was 24.6%, the Hispanic rate was 23.2%, and the white rate was 8.6% in 2008. The poverty rate for children under the age of 18 rose to 19.0%—also the highest level since 1997. More than one-third of African-American children, 34.7%, lived in poverty in 2008, compared to 10.6% of white children and 30.6% of Hispanic children.

8. Family wealth begins to recover. Total family wealth increased by $1.8 trillion in 2009 dollars from March 2009 to June 2009, but it remained $14.5 trillion below the level of June 2007—the last peak of family wealth. The two-year period from June 2007 to June 2009 thus saw a decline in inflation-adjusted personal wealth equal to 21.4%, the second largest drop in wealth after the two-year period from March 2007 to March 2009.

9. Many houses are empty and home sales are still sluggish. In the second quarter of 2009, 10.6% of rental properties were vacant—the highest level since the Census collected these data in 1956. The vacancy rate for owner-occupied houses was a relatively high 2.5%; prior to 2006, this rate never exceeded 2.0%. With many homes empty, home sales are struggling. New home sales in August 2009 amounted to an annualized, seasonally adjusted rate of 429,000—3.4% lower than a year earlier—despite an 11.7% year-over-year drop in median new home prices. Existing home sales were 3.4% higher than a year earlier, in part due to a 12.5% drop in the median sales price.

10. Mortgage troubles mount. One in eight mortgages is delinquent or in foreclosure. In the second quarter of 2009, the share of mortgages that were delinquent was 9.2%, and the share of mortgages that were in foreclosure was 4.3%.

11. Families feel the pressure. Credit card defaults rose to 9.6% of all credit card debt by the second quarter of 2009—an increase of 126.6% from the fourth quarter of 2007. The number of bankruptcy filings rose by 64.6% to 12.4 per 1,000 households during the same period.

Originally posted by Absum!
reply to post by Dbriefed

 

Thank you. Here is some more fuel. If you have time look at the graphs on the link. It is not pretty.

We need a plan to create good paying jobs to get out of this death spiral.

CAP - Oct. Economic Snapshot
A list of 11 problems with the OP's "vision"

1. The U.S. economy is still shrinking. GDP declined at an annual rate of 0.7 % in the second quarter of 2009 after falling by an annual average rate of 2.8% during the first five-quarters of the recession, from December 2007 to March 2009.

2. Job losses continue. The U.S. economy shed 263,000 jobs in September 2009. The economy has lost 7.2 million jobs since the recession began in December 2007. Close to two-thirds—or 4.5 million jobs—were lost before the economic stimulus package was enacted at the end of February 2009, and job losses have sharply declined since then.

3. Unemployment stays high among the most vulnerable. The unemployment rate was 9.8% in August 2009. The African-American unemployment rate that month stood at 15.4%, the Hispanic unemployment rate at 12.7%, and the unemployment rate for whites at 9.0%. Youth unemployment stood at a towering 25.9%. And the unemployment rate for people without a high school diploma remained high, standing at 15.0%, compared to 10.8% for those with a high school degree and 4.9% for those with a college degree.

4. The unemployed are out of a job for long periods. The average length of unemployment in September 2009 was 26.2 weeks, the median length of unemployment was 17.3 weeks, and 35.6 % of the unemployed were out of a job for 27 weeks or more. All of these indicators are at their highest level since 1948.

5. Employer-provided benefits continue to disappear. The share of private sector workers with a pension dropped from 50.3% in 2000 to 45.1% in 2007 and to 43.6% in 2008, and the share of people with employer-provided health insurance dropped from 64.2% in 2000 to 59.3% in 2007 and to 58.5% in 2008.

6. Family incomes drop sharply in the recession. Median inflation-adjusted family income fell by $1,860 to $50,303 (in 2008 dollars) in 2008 from 2007. This was the lowest family income since 1997. White family income stood at $55,530, compared to African-American family income, which was $34,218—or 61.6% of white income. Hispanic family income was $37,913 in 2008—or 68.2% of white income.

7. Poverty continues to rise. The poverty rate stood at 13.2% in 2008—its highest rate since 1997. The African-American poverty rate was 24.6%, the Hispanic rate was 23.2%, and the white rate was 8.6% in 2008. The poverty rate for children under the age of 18 rose to 19.0%—also the highest level since 1997. More than one-third of African-American children, 34.7%, lived in poverty in 2008, compared to 10.6% of white children and 30.6% of Hispanic children.

8. Family wealth begins to recover. Total family wealth increased by $1.8 trillion in 2009 dollars from March 2009 to June 2009, but it remained $14.5 trillion below the level of June 2007—the last peak of family wealth. The two-year period from June 2007 to June 2009 thus saw a decline in inflation-adjusted personal wealth equal to 21.4%, the second largest drop in wealth after the two-year period from March 2007 to March 2009.

9. Many houses are empty and home sales are still sluggish. In the second quarter of 2009, 10.6% of rental properties were vacant—the highest level since the Census collected these data in 1956. The vacancy rate for owner-occupied houses was a relatively high 2.5%; prior to 2006, this rate never exceeded 2.0%. With many homes empty, home sales are struggling. New home sales in August 2009 amounted to an annualized, seasonally adjusted rate of 429,000—3.4% lower than a year earlier—despite an 11.7% year-over-year drop in median new home prices. Existing home sales were 3.4% higher than a year earlier, in part due to a 12.5% drop in the median sales price.

10. Mortgage troubles mount. One in eight mortgages is delinquent or in foreclosure. In the second quarter of 2009, the share of mortgages that were delinquent was 9.2%, and the share of mortgages that were in foreclosure was 4.3%.

11. Families feel the pressure. Credit card defaults rose to 9.6% of all credit card debt by the second quarter of 2009—an increase of 126.6% from the fourth quarter of 2007. The number of bankruptcy filings rose by 64.6% to 12.4 per 1,000 households during the same period.

(1) US GDP declines a better-than expected 1pc in second quarter

The Commerce Department's new estimate for the gross domestic product (GDP), which measures the country's total output of goods and services, was unchanged from the initial figure it released last month.

(2)Turn in US jobs data boosts recovery hopes

(3) Not really sure why ethnicity needs to come into play here, as employers are not permited to discriminate based on race. Are these numbers higher then years prior? or do they remain constant. And youth unemployment?? what does that matter? And of course the number of non highschool grads unemployment rate will be high that's a given.

(4) The question to ask here is, why are the lengths of unemployment as estimated? Honestly how many of the unemployed are just enjoying the "break" and taking some time to relax at home, how many are actively searching? There's really no way to accurately determine these numbers but I'd bet my right leg they effect the totals.

(5) This one is a given, but the numbers started dropping in 1993 not so recently.

Changes in coverage rates, 1972-1993. The overall pension coverage rate was relatively stable from 1972 to 1993. Over this period, the rate for full-time private wage and salary workers has changed only marginally from the 48% rate found in 1972 to the 50% rate found in 1993 (Table B16). While overall coverage has remained fairly constant, there have been shifts in relative coverage rates among subgroups. There have also been major shifts in the types of plans providing coverage to workers

(6) www.census.gov...
Report from 2007, still trying to fing the 08 report.

(7)US poverty rate rises to 13.2 pct in 2008 vs 12.5 pct
Up 0.7% from the previous year, how bad is this really? and being that this statistic is only in the 90% sure, there is a variable here although small.

(8) explained as noted.

(9)

Existing home sales were 3.4% higher than a year earlier, in part due to a 12.5% drop in the median sales price.

How many of those empty homes mentioned were foreclosed on due to predatory lending practices or just plain over endulgence by overzealous home buyers? How many?

(10) see above. Also to note, there's plenty of help available out there for people in trouble with their mortgages, in any case why are they in trouble with them to begin with? unless an adjustable rate exsists wich has gone up I place over spending in other areas as the culpret with living beyond one's means as it's sidekick.

(11) Credit cards= get it now pay latter or not at all in some cases and if you do your gonna pay as much as 21% interest so do you really need that new watch so badly? whatever happend to saving up to buy the things you things you want? No we want them now! put em on the card honey!

Nice thread here.


1) Things are WORSE than what's being reported, to wit:

a) The true unemployment levels nationwide is already close to 20% and it will get worse; Detroit is already at 28% unemployment, so, in some areas in the country, the depression-levels of relative economic activity is WORSE than the Great Depression.

b) The CPI that is reported is LESS THAN HALF of the true CPI, so yearly inflation is running at about 18% and has been so for years ever since the late '90s.

c) The rate of job losses now are declining FASTER than what happened in the Great Depression.

d) The decline in housing prices with the current bursting of the housing bubble EXCEEDS the rate of decline in housing prices during the Great Depression.


For REAL information on what is really going on with the economy, go to this great website: www.shadowstats.com . Very good and useful site.


American industry has been severely gutted, with a massive double-digit loss of jobs that were outsourced. The once-vaunted American manufacturing base has been gutted to an astonishing degree. With the Fed remaining in power, this country is on the way to being a Third-World country.


HOWEVER, with the rapid changes that are now unfolding, it is looking like that the Federal Reserve will be finished and done away with before the end of this year, or at least transformed into a transparent, accountable agency that cannot harbor any more secrets and that the IRS would also be done away with, so, with those two huge changes, the future of America would actually be VERY bright.


The economic turmoil that we will go through will be acute, but short in duration and there will be NO TOTAL economic collapse. Not gonna happen. Why? It's because of this: "complex adaptive systems" -- the world's economic systems are better able to adapt to rapidly-changing economic conditions, thanks to the ever-increasing levels of information and the speed of which it is exchanged.


The Internet is THE key to the new economy and, as long it remains free, we will be able to adapt to the wonderful changes that are just around the corner. The NWO bassturds and the Illoonynaughties are about to be totally defeated and cornered by the whole world, so, once they are defeated, look for an astonishing rebound with the American economy, as well as the rest of the world.


And two other keys to the rebounding of the world's economies are: 1) the release of the long-suppressed free energy devices that would be a direct result of the official Disclosure of the UFO coverup that will happen before the end of 2009 and, 2) The creation of a new monetary system that would replace the Federal Reserve note and the management of that new system that would be transparent and accountable.


2010 will be noted as the greatest year of rebound and recovery that the world has EVER seen and 2011 will even be better than 2010. The KEY to all of that is a final and complete defeat of the NWO and the Illoonynaughties, both of which are just about to be defeated by the end of 2009.


Mark my words, the NWO and the Illoonynaughties WILL be defeated!

Um to the OP. The numbers you are showing in your chart are far from accurate. The unemployment rates being fed to the media do not include:

People who lost their jobs but cannot draw unemployment.

People who lost their full time good paying jobs and are now working part time for minimum wage and no health benefits.

People who lost their jobs, got unemployment but the unemployment has now ran out.

The unemployment rate is more accuratly at 20 + % depending on where you live. You can always figure the rate they are telling you and double it to get an accurate number. I do appreciate your optimism it will serve you well in the future when things get that bad...


edit spelling

reply to post by Melissa101


All good varibles to take into account, also constantly changing. Daily across the country jobs are lost and gained, new businesses sprout up. Job fairs happen everywhere with employers and recruiters jocking for the attention of job seekers. People who have lost good full time employment and now work part time for min wage and no benifits of course have the option to double the p/t to make one full time.

I always wonder how some can go 26 weeks with out finding some kind of employment? I collected it years ago for 3 months before gaining employment and have never collected it since, sometimes having to work 2 and 3 jobs to make ends meet. Was it plesent? no but that's the mentality of some.

reply to post by alyosha1981


I have gone way over 26 weeks without finding a job, although I was never eligible for unemployment. I have been unemployed for several months now and only been called in for four job interviews in all that time. I was not hired for any of those positions.

I have health problems which limit what I can physically do job wise, so some jobs I cannot even apply for. I'm having a good day if I can lift 25 lbs, for example, but much of the places around here want you to lift 50 to 70 lbs. I have never been able to do that and will never be able to do that. I have a deformed leg that makes me unable to lift properly in the first place, so I lift from my arms, shoulders, and back. I have trouble even getting up if I bend at my knee without trying to lift something. I always have, but now I'm getting arthritis and it's worse than it was when I was younger. Even though employers turn their noses up at me, the government doesn't think I am disabled.

Around here, Wal-mart isn't even hiring. UPS was hiring for someone who could lift up to 70lbs. I sure wish I could be that physically capable. Had I been, I wouldn't have lost my last job in the first place. McDonalds puts up a sign saying they're hiring, and they get hundreds of applications for one or two positions. I applied, but who are they going to hire? Me or someone who is more physically capable? I wasn't even called in for an interview.

A lot of places turn up their noses at me because I have a college education. I get told that I'm "overqualified." Jobs that will take my education refuse to hire me because they want someone with experience. All I did by going to college was educate myself out of the job market and put myself in around $125k in student loan debt. College education is a joke. And I even made dean's and president's list during some of my semesters. I had excellent grades in many of my classes. Does not impress employers.

I often think that I'll never get a job again.