Is now the right time to buy Gold ?

Cheers - well, I am not advocating ETF's - although I would say they are very cyclical, and if you can leverage then now is a wonderful time to be making money from them.

However, the problem is I think they will default and crash at some point in the near future. So if your holding them, you may find that they will repay you in cash - that might not seem so bad, however the effect of a COMEX or precious metal default on the large exchanges will result in a spike in precious metals - and a breakaway bull market - if you don't then own any of those metals physically, then you will get hurt.

Originally posted by havok
Its value will only go higher and higher.

Isn't that what they said about real estate ?

Originally posted by OpenYourEyez
The right time to buy gold was 4 years ago when it was under $275 an ounce.

Gold hasn't traded under $275 since 2001.

Originally posted by Krystian
LAST 2 yrs was the time to buy when gold was near $400 a oz

Hasn't traded near $400 since 2005.

I could go on dissecting Rigel Kent , but my point being , maybe consider seeking qualified investment counsel outside of Internet conspiracy forums (respectfully).

Un-hedged?

Personally , I would never commit 90% of my liquid net to any one asset class , especially one that I didn't fully understand...ergo , in terms of acquiring requisite info , Tuesday might be cutting it a bit close.

Buying Gold based on fundamental understanding and firm conviction is one thing , buying primarily out of fear is quite another. Am I prepared to weather extreme volatility , radical corrections? Should Gold correct to 880 near term (possibility , not probability) , will the same fear that brought me in , send me out...at a loss? If so , be assured that the cognoscenti will be lined-up to buy your stash. Fear based buyers often become panic sellers...just before the next leg-up.

Funny how that works


[edit on 19-7-2009 by OBE1]

Right now, I would not personally invest a dime in gold.

There are three reasons: first I feel (as others have stated) that gold is due for a decline in the future. As I am not exactly an expert on precious metal commodities, I would have to rely on advice from someone else.

Second, gold is one of the most worthless substances in real value that I know. It is far too soft to be used in a traditional metal market, and it's electrical conductivity is only above average (sorry Krystian, it's a common myth). It has one redeeming characteristic that might make it valuable, and that is that it does not corrode easily (which is the reason gold is used to plate electrical contacts). so while it is true that gold has a history of being a global currency, I can see no real reason for this other than custom... and it's pretty, little use in that when you're hungry.

Thirdly, if you live in the United States, you should be aware that buried within the Patriot Act is a rider that gives the POTUS power to declare gold ownership illegal, via executive order only. That happened once in our history already, and I feel it could be coming again. I do not remember the page, but a broker once informed me of this and I looked it up for myself.

Inside information I have gleaned from a few acquaintances is that gold is being turned for a huge profit right now, but no one in the know is actually hoarding it. what is happening is that companies are buying scrap gold, selling it as any number of overpriced trinkets (how many ads have you seen lately for non-legal-tender mint gold coins?) and to China. China isn't hoarding it either; they are pressing Ameros from gold alloys.

The idea, should it come to fruition, is to make gold illegal unless it is in the form of legal tender, thereby establishing fiat currency (the Amero) as the only option to anyone wishing to purchase gold. That keeps the gold refineries open and running, and at the same time removes the threat of gold as a competitor against fiat currency.

All this said, take my advice as just that: advice. I am not an expert, but rather someone who listens and tries to make sense out of the moves being made. I could be wrong; but I wouldn't spend a dime on gold right now.

TheRedneck

On a lighter note:

I really wouldn't resort to buying gold right now. World of Warcraft has received a lot of updates that make gold farming easily. For example you can do a lot of daily quest and run dungeons for loot.
Disenchanting...

Ok ok ok....
off topic? or funny?

my fear about gold is the elite flooding the market and dropping prices down to next to nothing.
think about it, if fort knox alone is really empty, that gold alone dumped on the market could have devastating effects.
think about diamond for a minute. the control debeers has is sickening. they rebury finds just so they can keep the rarity of diamond propaganda in everyones mind.
if all the diamonds available were dumped on the market, diamonds wouldn't be worth a damn thing really.

The right time to buy gold was in October 2008.
You're almost a year late.....

reply to post by Rigel Kent

The ppl over at survival Blog seem to like junk silver because it
is recognized US coins, and it is real silver.

1933 FDR passed a law making ti illegal to own over a certain
amount of gold, but silver was left alone, as one other poster
mentions that has been put back in the patriot act as well.

Gold will be harder for ppl to use in transactions for everyday goods.

Also you are more likely to be targeted by thieves if you are known
to have several gold coins vs. several silver coins.

The silver will take up more space, but you can cache it in a few different
places so if you get robbed you won't lose it all.

Just don't forget where u cache it, and write some abstract possibly coded
reminder where you put it all.

Don't let anyone know the location that you do not trust with your life.

Do not plan on staying in the big concrete jungles when the food
trucks stop delivering food.

Have multiple routes outbound planned, plan on gas stations being
swamped, plan on the stores being panic stricken with empty shelves.

Have a bugout bag and survival gear in case you have to make your
way cross country and walk out.

If martial law is declared stay off the roads and out of sight.

Make arrangements with rural friends now, and know that ppl in
state and federal parks will be rounded up most likely.

The only hope for those kind of areas will be hiking in a cpl of days
into areas with no roads, and having good and strong binocs to
check for company and staying out of sight.

If you think you are an urban rambo going to take a farm from
a former military member keep in mind we hunt and thus
know how to shoot fairly well.

If you show up in a rural area, don't mess with the locals, they will not
be asking questions first.

Good Luck to you all !

[edit on 19-7-2009 by Ex_MislTech]

Originally posted by Rigel Kent
reply to post by havok

 

Thanks for that advice, much appreciated, I have already started filling a dry larder and have an emergency diesel generator, but also want to try out some solar panels in the near future.

My wife thinks I am a nut job....

PEACE,
RK

Show her these youtube videos about the guy that wrote the book
Confessions of an Economic Hitman.

Confessions of an Economic Hitman - Pt. I

I love the reason that made him brave enough to tell the story.

Well lots of opinions here – maybe about 2 to 1 against gold. That makes me personally happy. Because that means there are still lots of people who haven’t become believers in it, and therefore remain potential buyers. I am a big believer in Gold; have been for over 10 years now. It is the one true international medium of money, and has been for thousands of years. When the world finally figures out that the real cause of the current Global Financial Meltdown is the current worldwide fiat money system based on ‘faith’ alone, it will come back to gold. Always has.

Like others, I won’t bother with a long discourse on all the virtues of gold – it appears to me you have already done your research on that.

So let me answer your question to point: Diverting your money into gold (and possibly some silver) at this moment is a very smart thing to do. There are many financial reasons to do this, as some have already written, but the main reason for you is that you KNOW it’s the right thing to do. And, dear RK, doing the thing you know is right, will give you the kind of night’s sleep I’ll bet the gold detractors can only fondly remember, or achieve on Ambien.

Assuming that the world is not about to lapse into a Mad Max version of the New Dark Ages, there will be a new beginning after we pass through this mess. For that, gold will easily beat all other possible assets for most people. [I suppose owning a few castles would be alright if you have some] Clearly some are planning on dropping out of society and heading for the hills. Okay, I feel sorry for them, I can tell you first hand that living in the woods for extended periods of time is a teeter-totter with misery on one hand and boredom on the other. All that clean living stuff sort of goes away after a few weeks. They always seem to forget that above all, we are a social species. We get crazy (or crazier) when we go hide in the woods. Others, at the opposite end, are still clinging to the remnants of the past, stocks and bonds, and whatever. For them, they are afraid to leave the herd and head towards the unknown horizon. They are much loved by Wall Street fat cats, and Stock Traders. They make a lot of money for their money managers. Buy and Hold, the market will eventually get better, right?

Yet there are many that have already made their move into gold and silver, and many, many more to come. A lot of these folks are the very rich. In fact, there has been so much buying of gold bullion for storage in Switzerland that the Swiss are actually running out of storage space. Hummmmm. On top of that, the World’s Central Banks have virtually stopped selling, with nations like Russia and China openly buying more. Makes one think doesn’t it?

I have been hearing that gold isn’t going higher for the last 10 years. And each time, my dissuaders gave me damn good reasons why. Only problem is that what they don’t yet understand, is that gold transcends reason and logic. There is something about it, that becomes apparent once you hold a few gold coins in your hands….. Oh, that reminds me, did you hear that the world leaders at the recent G8 Summit in Italy were presented real gold coins of a proposed future worldwide currency? Makes one think, doesn't it?

Couple things I should point out.

I live in Asia and to me gold is as almost as liquid as cash - I can exchange gold for cash instantly all over the place, there are less places to sell silver, but I know of them and they are reliable and easy to deal with.

In terms of trading stocks - I trade resource stocks only at the moment, and only big ones. I also trade hit and run, my money is only on the market for about 4 or 5 days a month, and I use maximum leverage. I buy the dips - then sell - I generally make 3-10% on a transaction, and a couple of transactions per month only.

My philosophy on stocks at the moment is that I feel there will be another crash - so I am out of the US and UK markets which I feel are most vulnerable. Also I am in resources (mining companies), which I feel will best retain their value if there is a shock - I also refuse to keep my money in the market because of the risk of a correction.

I consider stocks fairly risky right now - but it is my sole source of income, and I don't have huge exposure - and I am on big resource stocks which i think are the safest. I would not suggest a buy and hold philosophy on stocks to anyone right now.

reply to post by Rigel Kent


for $900+ an ounce? hell no.

unless you think it is gunna go higher I guess..but for $900 an ounce, is it really worth it?

what good will it do you if the s were to hit the s? not a thing...

reply to post by Amagnon

Another excellent post. I have a similar strategy to yours, and I live in the US. Unless one lives in a remote area, there are lots of places in the US one can go and buy/sell gold and silver. For me, I do a lot of my local business at a 'coin shop' about 45 minutes away. I have been on both ends of the transaction and have generated a fair amount of money over the last few years by buying and selling gold and silver.

When gold or silver drop, I buy with whatever extra cash I have. When they go up a bit, I sell and live off the profits. I have found it easier to do this with silver, as there seems to be more volatile and its less psychologically depressing to hand it over, when selling.

Since the OP is looking for a weath preservation mechanism, I am sure you will agree that he can't go wrong in gold/silver.

I have been advising friends to buy for over 10 years, and have heard every possible argument about why not to buy gold. In the end, and especially over the last year or so, I have had many friends either thank me or tell me they wish they had listened to me. For those that didn't buy, I am convinced its a mental inability to purchase gold. A typical conversation of late, goes like this:

Friend: Hey I really wish I had listened to you over the years and bought gold (or more).

Me: Well, its still not too late you know.

Friend: What? But gold is so high right now, it can't possibly go higher.

Me: No? Humm, I'm still buying, and will continue to buy until gold is around $1500, and then I will re-assess it.

Friend: $1500!!! No way! Who would buy it at those prices? Its demonetized, etc, etc.

Me: Okay, But remember we had this very same conversation a few years back, right?


And so it goes, and will go. Its just the way people who have never had 'real money' think. And I think its so ironic that many of the folks who criticize gold on these forums, are the same ones who rail against the currrent economic mess..... They really just don't get it.

Gold is for rich people. And only in small amounts even then. If you have a million cash do you really want 100K in gold? How will you keep it safe?

There are better ways of ''investing'' and the physical gold is only going to get you so far down the road before you run into trouble. You have to protect your gold, right? How much are you going to be carrying? A lump? A couple bars? How will you make change? Some coins? The smaller coins are always sold at a premium. The tiny 1g bars are always sold at a huge premium. Like a 1g sliver worth $30 is sold for $50. Did you know that an ounce of gold in 1 gram units will sell for $1500? You can not just go out and buy food with a handful of $900 American Eagles!

It is foolish to think about it unless you have a lot of money.

reply to post by Amagnon


Love the silver. And, you are right about gold and silver being kept down. I don't know when it will happen, but it will. I think it's strange that silver has been kept down so low for so long. Yes, it's doubled over the past few years, but gold has more than doubled! What you say about silver explains a lot.

Originally posted by PowerSlave
I don't know if buying gold is the way to go, but has anyone else seen all of these cheesey commercials from local companies (jewelry) advertising that they buy all your old gold jewelry?

I have seen countless commercials on TV regarding this lately. This indicates to me they know something.

Theres been a lot of those over here in the UK as well, "We'll buy your gold" , Gold has always been a stable source of currency the world over. Should the ecnomy fail and TPTB have to impliment another currency Gold would buy you more of it than your current worthless bit of fabric.

Do what the TV ads are doing, buy as much scrap gold as you can, or the more expensive option buy the cheapest gold coins you can, don't bother buying 'expensive' collector coins they won't be worth the extra you paid for them should you have to barter them, and the person your trading with certaily wont care if you paid 100 dollars or a 1000 dollars for the coin, if it looks like gold its gold end of.

My advice is buy as many precious metal coins as you can , even if you buy a couple a month and in the long run should anything NOT happen you'll have a nice little nest egg for your retirement.

reply to post by Data_Wraith

My advice is buy as many precious metal coins as you can , even if you buy a couple a month and in the long run should anything NOT happen you'll have a nice little nest egg for your retirement.

unless, as i warn, someone buys in now, and gold ends up down around 2-3 hundred.


[edit on 20-7-2009 by rubbertramp]

Originally posted by rubbertramp
reply to post by Data_Wraith

 

My advice is buy as many precious metal coins as you can , even if you buy a couple a month and in the long run should anything NOT happen you'll have a nice little nest egg for your retirement.

unless, as i warn, someone buys in now, and gold ends up down around 2-3 hundred.


[edit on 20-7-2009 by rubbertramp]

Also in 1933 FDR forced ppl to sell their gold to the government at
$20 an oz if they had over a certain amount.

I will grant they can't get it for $20 this time, but I am betting
they won't give you $1,000/ oz if it does happen.

FDR's 1933 gold grab

Let's see that was about the time of a depression, and we think
it might be a depression again.

Obama has some policies that are a lot like FDR's...it could happen again.



[edit on 20-7-2009 by Ex_MislTech]

reply to post by Ex_MislTech


i always just like arguing the flip side of the coin. in this case it seems everyone wants to give the elite and bankers and nwo power players credit in running the world. except when it comes to gold, then they can't see the possible manipulation of holding most of the worlds gold to begin with. if the shtf, and everyones broke, cept' for some gold and silver, i personally think they wouldn't think twice about dumping gold even at a loss, in order to break us completely.

Simply put , Gold ownership is a citizens hedge against government , the government' power to tax through inflation , currency debasement , monetization of it's bloated debt. Nothing more , nothing less.

If some citizens choose to forfeit this liberty , one of our remaining few , through misunderstanding and/or personal bias.....so be it.

I believe I posted this link once before when the "confiscation" issue arose. It may help to have some facts....

The story told today is that citizens in the 1930's were 'law abiding' and willingly lined up to turn in their gold, but the facts from back then tell a different story. Here is an interesting table based on data for circulating gold coins reported by Milton Friedman and Anna Schwartz in their book, "A Monetary History of the United States, 1867-1960".


2....,,After analyzing in some detail each possibility noted in the government's contention that ostensibly explained why all these gold coins remained outstanding after the confiscation, Friedman and Schwartz go on to say: "We therefore concluded that in Jan. 1934 the bulk of the [13.9 million ounces] was retained illegally in private hands."

Full Text

Only 21.9% of the Gold coinage in circulation was surrendered in 1933 , I'd wager that even less of our privately owned Gold would be bellied-up today.

reply to post by OBE1

Yeah, my family did not turn in their gold in 33, thou we did not
have much more than the maximum from what I have been told.

Could be a tall tale, but the anger in my grandfather's eyes
I believe him, and he was not a man to lie.

As angry as some ppl are now they might turn in their lead
at just over mach one speed.

I am not bothering with precious metals, I went with the basics,
and lots of it. Most of I can resell if I need to.

Good Luck to you all !