Watching the Tropics; Hurricane Season 2009

It seems odd to start this thread so early and hurricane season hasn't even started yet and doesn't start till June 1st, however the tropics didn't get the memo to stick to our calendar and is starting to show activity.

The List of Names to Expect this season:
www.nhc.noaa.gov...
Ana, Bill, Claudette, Danny, Erika, Fred, Grace, Henri, Ida, Joaquin, Kate, Larry, Mindy,
Nicholas, Odette, Peter, Rose, Sam, Teresa, Victor and Wanda

The National Hurricane thinks there is slight chance of development for this low near Cuba, a hurricane hunter plane may be sent out tomorrow to investigate.

Tropical Outlook

[atsimg]http://files.abovetopsecret.com/images/member/3b82279077f0.gif[/atsimg]


It is also interesting to note that the Old Farmer's Almanac predicts a May storm and an active hurricane season.

Expect Tropical Storm Ana to threaten Florida in late May, in advance of the official hurricane season.

Also of interest is the updated (April 09) forecast from Dr. William Gray of Colorado State University for the 2009 Hurricane Season. He predicts:

12 Named Storms
6 Hurricanes
2 Major Hurricanes

These numbers are all lower than their Dec 2008 outlook for the 09 season

2009 Hurricane Forecast PDF

Yeah I live in Merritt Isl, FL and I will be watching Hurricane season this year. A co-worker and I were talking about this on Friday. I personally dont want another 2004 because that was just ridiculous!! Last year in my area was ok except for the darn flooding. Thanks for the info!

reply to post by mblahnikluver


I can only hope that 2004 was a fluke and we won't see a repeat of action like that again for at least another 50 years or so...

According to this year's predictions it shouldn't be as active as then, but that doesn't put me at ease, because it only takes 1 major hurricane to leave a lasting impact. It's really all about how strong it is and where it hits.

I have to admit though I am enjoying the current downpours we're having being caught between the front and the low... oh and I noticed a headline while passing by the Weather Channel.. "Low pressure system may develop and drift towards Florida"

reply to post by worldwatcher


I am loving the rain here right now! It's been a while since we had rain for more than a few hours...It's been raining since Sunday night here and should rain through tomorrow.
As for 2004 I went through 4 darn Hurricanes, it was nuts! Just as the debris was being cleaned up and lights were being put back up another one would hit. I missed more work than ever because of this and eventually the company I worked at closed because they lost so much money from being closed. I hope this season is not like that and that no major one hits anyone...easy to say I guess but the people here or anywhere for that matter dont need a big hurricane to hit. I am use to them since I have lived here for 20 some years but they still make me worry when they get to a certain size. I have evacuated many times and it's not fun! I got stuck in GA one year because we had to evacuate, although it never hit where I was, it turned like they love to do.

Seems like Nature wants us to have an Ana before June 1st..

www.nhc.noaa.gov...
SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED THIS MORNING IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 225 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF CAPE
HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA. THE LOW IS CURRENTLY MOVING TO THE
NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH ALONG THE RELATIVELY WARM WATERS OF THE GULF
STREAM. THIS SYSTEM STILL HAS SOME POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL
CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS BUT IS NOT EXPECTED TO THREATEN
ANY LAND AREAS.

Also there are two impressive blobs of moisture in the Gulf of Mexico headed towards Florida, not tropical in nature but it does mean MORE rain for soggy Florida.

See above, but we now have Tropical Depression One

www.nhc.noaa.gov...

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST...

SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT
PASSED TO THE EAST OF CAPE HATTERAS YESTERDAY HAS BECOME A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION...THE FIRST OF THE ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON.

AT 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 37.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 71.0 WEST OR ABOUT
310 MILES...500 KM...SOUTH OF PROVIDENCE RHODE ISLAND AND ABOUT 635
MILES...1020 KM...SOUTHWEST OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA.

Good news is that is not expected to affect any land.

Little blob of convection SW of us (Cayman Islands) now... Thank God for windshear. SSTs are favorable, steering currents, ENSO cycle, etc. The forecast is for the shear to diminish tomorrow. Right now BP of 1012 and falling, but very slowly. Hopefully the shear will disorganize it enough that we just get much-needed rain and nothing more.

The first one of my buddies who looks at the IR/water vapor and emails me to tell me they think they see a "pinhole eye" is going to get a reply chock full of invectives.

Originally posted by worldwatcher
Also of interest is the updated (April 09) forecast from Dr. William Gray of Colorado State University for the 2009 Hurricane Season. He predicts:

12 Named Storms
6 Hurricanes
2 Major Hurricanes

These numbers are all lower than their Dec 2008 outlook for the 09 season

2009 Hurricane Forecast PDF

2004 they expected

13 Named Storms
7 hurricanes
3 Major Storms

This years forecast calls for one less named storm which is basically meaningless since we ended up with 20+ named storms in 2004. It wa snot a fun time for us south floridians.

Originally posted by mblahnikluver
reply to post by worldwatcher

 

As for 2004 I went through 4 darn Hurricanes, it was nuts!

Me too! Although my experience was from Central Florida just North of Orlando. I bet it was much windier where you are. My craziest hurricane experience happened that year. The winds tore off a significant portion our roof and our upstairs office and my bedroom began fill up with rainwater. Dad made me go on the roof to nail down a tarp in 60+ MPH winds/gusts (one of the smaller storms, but still damaging). Probably not the smartest decision we ever made, but we just couldn't sit around while the house could have potentially flooded and/or roof cave in. I remember it took forever to get the roof fixed that year because the contractors were so overwhelemed with business from all the storms. The State of Florida had to suspend the builders' permit rules to allow out of state contractors in just to meet the demand.

Praying for a quiet season.

[edit on 8-6-2009 by PH43DRUS]

Here's another hurricane, Hurricane Bill. It's supposed to make landfall in Canada and it's a big one.

Currently 135 mph winds

www.spaghettimodels.com...

What could those winds do to the tides near NYC ?



[edit on 19-8-2009 by Strictsum]

Originally posted by Strictsum
Here's another hurricane, Hurricane Bill. It's supposed to make landfall in Canada and it's a big one.

Currently 135 mph winds

www.spaghettimodels.com...

What could those winds do to the tides near NYC ?



[edit on 19-8-2009 by Strictsum]

That's a nice link-got everything in one place.

I'm on the NC coast, so I watch all the weather I can stand during hurricane season.

Don't know about the tides in NYC, but they had a major storm blow through last night that whacked trees in Central Park
www.msnbc.msn.com...

A severe thunderstorm packing wind gusts as high as 80 mph barreled through Central Park on Tuesday night, knocking down hundreds of century-old trees and destroying several parked cars.

"Central Park has been devastated," Parks Commissioner Adrian Benepe told the New York Times. "It created more damage then I've seen in thirty years of working in the parks."

reply to post by Pauligirl


I'm on the SC coast so I do a fair bit of hurricane watching myself.

It's just that Bill will be getting kinda close to NYC and I thought it could possibly bring the tides up but I don't know.

So after such a slow season, we have Ida.

As of now the Gulf Coast from Grand Isle, LA to the MS/AL border is under a Hurricane Watch. Tide levels are expected to rise 3-5ft prior to the storm making landfall with models indicating landfall anywhere from New Orleans to Tampa. (models)

Everyone keep safe and lets hope someone reminds Mother Nature that we really don't need to see any storms, especially so late in the season.

Ida will become quite a complicated system in the next 24 hours as it becomes absorbed by the frontal system out to its West. NOAA are predicting a NE turn in the Gulf over the coming days as Ida maintains CAT 2 intensity, however some models 2 days ago had Ida at CAT 4 before shearing.

I'd sure hate to be the guy in charge having to map the outlier path for this Hurricane for the next 5 days, It'll be safe to say that just about anywhere coastal of the G.O.M will see something of Ida, wether its inhibited moisture prepping up storms on the flanks or direct winds from the actual Hurricane itself.

The tropical Depression caused by Ida could cause flooding .

Personally , I'll be glad to see the back of her . Funky name though