UK Swine Flu Info & Advice

It now looks like we may be seeing the first case of onward transmission in the UK:

The first Britons confirmed to have caught swine flu have been discharged from hospital after recovering.

Newly-wed couple Iain and Dawn Askham, from Polmont near Falkirk, were found to have the virus after returning from a trip to Mexico.

Health Secretary Nicola Sturgeon said one male who had been in contact with the couple was now being treated as a "probable" case after being re-tested.

If he tests positive, it would be the first onward transmission in the UK.

A further 27 possible cases are under investigation in Scotland...

Source

Let's hope this is a false alarm, as it would mark a serious escalation.

...First Minister Alex Salmond told the Scottish Parliament that a total of 41 people had now been tested and cleared for swine flu, which has been linked to about 160 deaths in Mexico.

He said the person-to-person spread of swine flu had to be anticipated.

"What we have done, it seems, in our identified cases is effectively bought ourselves some time in terms of interrupting the spread of the virus," he said.

"That is obviously very valuable because the more time you can buy, the less people are going to fall ill."

The first minister went on: "The reality now, however, from the World Health Organization is that we must anticipate - however good our measures are, however effective our countermeasures, and however much we try to interrupt the spread of this virus - there is a likelihood there will be cases - further cases, and person-to-person cases."

(Source as above)

I and others can confirm what looked like the formation, or exercise, of quarantine check points.

Today, I witnessed a police check (in Canterbury. Near the tourist arrival centre) being implemented and blocking traffic. Three police cars in total.

one more case in south gloucestershire, confirmed.

Did anyone else notice the dates on the tamiflu on tv news last night? best before 2011 so a good job it's happening now.

Much of my weekend is going to be spent distributing tamiflu to designated distribution point, im going to be busy

reply to post by abstrusenumber1


Just shown live a doctor on sky news (21.20) confirming 2 cases in south Gloustershire.
!2 y/o girl and 40 something y/o man.

reply to post by infinite


The tourist centre and car park is now closed in Canterbury.

No reason, signs are placed on the buildings and the access point but members of the public cannot get near it. Rumours are it is under quarantined because it is situated in the most highly populated place in the city.

I live in the Preston area - I am looking after my neice while her mum is in hospital (NOT with a flu related condition)- her high school sent me this letter on Friday 01/05/09.

My own daughters school has not issued anything yet

I have no facility to scan - so I will type it in for you

"Swine Flu

You will be no doubt aware of the international situation in relation to swine flu and the possibility of a pandemic. I write to reassure you that the school has its own pandemic response plan and to advise you about some preliminary steps you might take now in the event of a flu pandemic coming to our local area. School will operate as normal unless events change.

School will only be closed if:

There are not enough staff to guarantee the safe operation of the school.

Or the school is instructed to close by the local health authority.

In the event of a school closure you will be informed as soon as possible by a combination of local media, school website or letter. Please visit the school website for updates.

Steps you should take now

1 Remind your child about the importance of good hygiene, particularly the washing of hands

2 Explore possible childcare arrangements in the event of school closing

3 Let us know if your contact details (telephone numbers, email, address) have changed in the last three months so we have the most accurate information.

4 Reassure your child not to panic

I will write to you again if there is a change to these arrangements.

If the school is instructed to close in the course of the day I need reassurance from you that your child has permission to go home or to another house until your return. If you do not return the reply slip I will assume that you have given your permission for your child to leave school. If you do not give your permission please make sure the slip below is returned to school reception"

Four more cases confirmed:

Tests have confirmed four more cases of swine flu in England, taking the total number of UK patients affected to 32, the Health Protection Agency has said.

The new cases, all associated with travel to Mexico, are adults from Tameside in Greater Manchester, north east Essex, and the West and East Midlands regions of England.

A further 390 suspected cases of the H1N1 virus remain under investigation...

...Earlier, Berkshire East Primary Care Trust (PCT) said it was searching for people who had been on a flight from Mexico with a man who had tested positive for the virus...

...A Department of Health spokeswoman said that of the UK cases, 28 were in England and four in Scotland.

Source


I'd say what really interests the man in the street is the severity of the condition. What the Health Secretary said recently is germane to this aspect:

The swine flu outbreak has so far been "contained" in Britain, Health Secretary Alan Johnson said. Mr Johnson acknowledged that there would be more cases in the UK over and above the 15 that had already been confirmed. And he said that the authorities had to be prepared for the possibility of a more serious "second wave" when the colder, wetter weather returns in the autumn.

"Our evidence from all previous pandemics is that you get two phases. You get a first wave that is often very mild and then you get a much more serious wave that comes along in the autumn and the winter," he told BBC1's The Andrew Marr Show. "So we have to not just deal with this outbreak now, but prepare, perhaps, for a second phase further down the line."

Although the World Health Organisation has declared a phase 5 alert level - one step short of declaring a pandemic - Mr Johnson said that the measures taken in the UK had proved effective in limiting the spread of the disease. "Pandemic just describes the geographic spread, it doesn't describe the severity. So far ... I think it is contained," he said.

"There will be more cases. There are 15 confirmed at the moment, that will go up, there is absolutely no doubt of that.

"But at the moment all the evidence is that we can confine it, contain it, and treat it effectively."

Source

Not exactly reassuring, but at least it's a realistic appraisal of where we are, (-though I'm unconvinced by the phrase "we can... treat it effectively").

He would say that, though, wouldn't he?






[edit on 6/5/09 by pause4thought]

Though the issue has largely gone off the boil in the MSM over recent weeks, there have been some serious recent developments in the UK, notably in Scotland. Let's start with the conclusion of the article:

The number of cases of swine flu in Scotland has risen seven-fold in a week, and the country now accounts for a quarter of all cases of the virus in the UK.

Source

Here are the main details:

Scotland has 31 new confirmed cases of swine flu, bringing the total number to 119, the Scottish Government has said.

Among the new cases is a 23-month-old toddler in Lothian, who is not seriously ill and is being treated at home.

None of the new cases are travel-related, and 21 are in the NHS Highland area, which covers Dunoon.

Three patients remain in intensive care at the Royal Alexandra Hospital in Paisley.
A 38-year-old woman at the hospital was said to be in a "critical" condition, while a 45-year-old man and 23-year-old woman were described as "critical but stable" and "stable" respectively.

A further confirmed case - a 44-year-old woman - is in the high dependency unit at the Royal Alexandra.

Also significant is the closure of a couple of primary schools in Scotland.

A six-fold increase in illness in Scotland in a few weeks-

www.independent.co.uk...

Community transmission to clinicians confirmed (BBC source on another thread).

I have also read that Ms. Sturgeon and the CDC equivalent in England are discussing the creation of special "flu wards" in anticipation of an autumn burn. Does anyone have any information to support that? I've read hintings of it in BBC, Telegraph, etc., but don't have access to local info as I'm in the US.

www.sundaymail.co.uk...

This article suggests that all expect the UK to be in trouble in autumn, as well.

www.bloomberg.com...

Bloomberg reporting local and community transmission- with no contact known of any kind between people from from Japan, the US, Canada, Mexico, etc.

I am wondering why the UK is being hit so hard (I know why we're getting it in the US- we eat garbage- most people are overweight and take loads of toxic pharmas-- and I'm blessed not to be in those demographics...).

I love you all there- it's one of my ancestral homelands and I worry about my "cousins"!
Hope all are taking good care, and please post any new info you get! Thank you

[edit on 8-6-2009 by CultureD]

reply to post by Indigo_Child


Indigo-

Wonderful list of "alternative" medicine (i.e.-real medicne). Thank you!

Want to add to your research and post with my own- and hope it helps-

Slippery Elm (from he Red Elm)- the inner bark is a mucous-like material and may be taken in capsule, tea or lozenge form. It contains a sugar called D-Rhamnose, which rips influenza (and many other) viral protein capsids apart- preventing their enterering cells. We take it daily and it is as safe as can be- from the Native Americans and subsequently used by the Colonialists for smallpox, measles, typhus and flu prevention.

Rhodeola: used throughout Scandanavia, N. Russia (Siberia), China, the Himalayas, and is the central core of medicine in Lhassa. It is an adaptogen, and thus reacts to all physical stressors. It is a miracle.

Conezyme Q10. Vital for mitochondrial respiration: works with Vit E as a co-factor to allow each cell to harvest as much energy as possible. Declines with aging- a natural protein- hardly worth being called a supplement- really just adding to your own supply. In lab tests that have been supressed by the National Institutes of Health, it shirnks tumours, kills bacteria, viruses and parasites in culture and in vivo, and reverses heart, kidney, pulmonary and liver failure.

Vitamin D: In higher latitudes we receive less natural D, as we have less sun: take supplements- Vit. D is an immunomodulator- it also prevents and can cure cancer, and it mutilates viruses. Absolutely essential items to use with your exhaustively reseached list!

I hope this is helpful to all- and thank you so very much for your information, as well!!!!

Be well,

Peace-

C

BTW- My husband and I are life-long chemists who left the Government and pharma industries to pursue medicine in non-toxic forms. We have been belssed to have saved two people from death due to cancer, when chemo stopped working, and returned a stroke vitcim's vision and independence, mobility, etc., with Q10.


EDIT: to add this: Tamiflu is made from star anise. It has anti-viral molecules in it- they are derived and made into a medication. If you'd rather go that route- research the correct dosage of star anise, as too much IS toxic- and make a mild cup of tea. It will have the same anti-viral effect as Tamiflu- as it's the same molecule.

[edit on 8-6-2009 by CultureD]

reply to post by Indigo_Child


Indigo Child, thank you for this concise and easy to follow list...I have read many sites for natural remedies but sometime the sifting through, and putting together the actual "recipes" into one cohesive place is the hardest part!

I have copied this and sent to friends.


FMF

Firstly I have to say Indigo Child's herbal-medicine-based contributions have added a lot to this thread! Thank-you IC.

The official number of cases in the UK is now virtually 800.

Here's the latest summary

Here's a quick excerpt; unfortunately it doesn't bode well for anyone hoping an end might be in sight:

The Health Protection Agency (HPA) said there were currently 607 possible cases of swine flu still under investigation in UK laboratories...

would it be paranoid to go and get a few weeks worth of food? Im sure i'll get laughed out for suggesting the idea in my house

reply to post by woodwardjnr


How about a happy-medium of getting just one or two extra items each time you go shopping? Staples like rice/potatoes are better bought in bulk anyway.

It might not do any harm to think about a bread-maker at some point too. (They save you a fortune anyway in the long-term.)

I think many people expect things could take a real turn for the worst come the Autumn, though it's a pretty imprecise science. Of course if it hits your community before then, the national picture somewhat fades into insignificance.

Breaking News: First Swine Flu Death in the UK

news.bbc.co.uk...

35 new cases were confirmed in Scotland alone today.

UK swine flu cases now over 1,500

The number of UK swine flu cases has reached 1,582 after 110 more people in England tested positive for the virus.

The figure does not include the latest diagnosed cases in Scotland, where the virus has spread particularly fast. These will be confirmed later...

The feverish media cover has abated, but the virus has not.

Three more swine flu victims die

Two nine-year-old girls and a man have died after contracting swine flu, health officials have confirmed.

One of the girls was named by relatives as Asmaa Hussain, of Dewsbury in West Yorkshire, who died last Thursday.

The man, who died on Sunday, was named by neighbours, also in Dewsbury, as Abdullah Patel, who taught at the town's Institute for Islamic Education.

The other girl, from south London, also died over the weekend...

The deaths take the number of UK swine flu sufferers who have died to seven.

Source article, containing outbreak map

Anyone following events in the UK should read and take note of this article. The following quote illustrates why:

Earlier experts warned that the number of swine flu cases in the UK could rise to 100,000 a day by the end of next month.

A day??

UK swine flu death tolls hits 14

Fourteen patients are now thought to have died in the UK after contracting swine flu, the government has said...

[England's chief medical officer Sir Liam Donaldson said] The number of swine flu cases in London and the West Midlands is approaching epidemic levels.

The UK now has the third highest number of swine flu cases in the world - 9,718 - after the US and Mexico. As of Wednesday, Mexico had 10,262 cases, and there were 33,902 confirmed cases in the US.

Wait for it...

"We do have to remain cautious, the virus may change or mutate, but as it stands at the moment, it's not a severe illness for most people but some people can get it very severely," he said.

"That's why getting a vaccine in place is vitally important."

Anyone interested in this or the previous post?




[edit on 9/7/09 by pause4thought]

reply to post by pause4thought


Okay, let's assume 100,000 people get swine 'flu cold every day and that it takes 2 weeks to recover.

That means at any one time there will be 1,400,000 people ill.

About 60% of the UK population are of working age so lets assume they are all in full employment. That's about 36,000,000 people. Of whom at any one time 840,000 will be in bed with 'flu. 2.3% of the working population.

In comparison, assuming all working people get 4 weeks holiday a year, then at any one time around 8% - or 2,880,000 people - will be on holiday and thus also not at work (assuming annual holidays are spread evenly through the year - in reality the percentage on holiday in August is likely to be higher).

Some of those with 'flu would otherwise have been on holiday anyway (bad for them, less of a problem for their employer)

Meanwhile most deaths are likely to be amongst those with other health problems and thus less likely to be in full time employment any way.

Obviously if more people contract 'flu per day and/or it takes longer to recover and return to work, the figures go up. But based on those figures I don't yet see it presenting a serious problem.

Be interesting to know what percentage of people are typically off work with 'flu or colds at any one time in December?

reply to post by Essan


Many thanks for your well thought-out post. I too am totally against over-hyping the crisis (-though I have to admit that "100,000 new cases a day" figure fairly bowled me over!) Who knows - maybe it will all just blow over...



(Nevertheless) there have been some very significant developments today. Here it is from the horse's mouth (for full article see link) :

The shift to a treatment phase has important practical implications for the public and the NHS. It means that as of today:

GPs will be able to diagnose swine flu on the basis of patients’ symptoms rather than waiting for laboratory testing.

The routine tracing of people who have come into contact with confirmed cases of swine flu will end.

Schools and other institutions will close only if local circumstances warrant it, for example if a significant number of pupils or teachers are ill.

The way in which the antiviral medicines Tamiflu and Relenza are used and distributed will also change:

The medicines will continue to be offered to all those who show symptoms of swine flu at their doctor's discretion.

They will no longer be given to completely healthy people simply to slow the spread of swine flu.

They will be used for prevention (prophylaxis) only on the advice of a doctor in high-risk groups. These include people with long-term conditions, those over 65, children under five and pregnant women.

Individuals who require antivirals will be given a voucher reference entitling them to pick up the medication at a local collection point.

Source: www.nhs.uk...

The above link takes you to the definitive summary of current info & advice, at least from the NHS. As it is clearly being constantly updated it may well be worth referring back to it in future.

It looks like today truly marks a new phase in the UK.