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Recovery ....riiighht

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posted on Apr, 24 2009 @ 05:49 PM

Executives and insiders at U.S. companies are taking advantage of the steepest stock market gains since 1938 to unload shares at the fastest pace since the start of the bear market.

i am hear to learn so perhaps someone could tell me how this measures up to those "in the know" buying into the recovery fantasy the MSM is pushing for

perhaps they were looking to sell because they thought the market had bounced back to far too fast....but who knows

you know the financal channel MSM who will never tell you before earnings crash.........the one's who are beholden to pump market for their "advertising company's" at the expense of you the share holder or 401k holder.....i think the MSM press for this fantasy can be seen as a confidence scam preying on people's hope ...yet disguised as honest optimism

analyst's surveyed by bloomberg currently predict that the 4'th quarter will be robust ....hmm do these "experts" have any bias toward being "overly optomistic"

Investors are looking to the final quarter of the year, when S&P 500 companies will increase operating income by 71 percent, according to analyst estimates compiled by Bloomberg. They forecast profits will fall 33 percent in the second quarter and 21 percent in the third.

click on the link above and see how well analysts have been doing forecasting earnings per share for the S&P 500........gee always revising down their forecasts....they must be always "fooled" huh

so why isn't the market tanking if the smart money knows that the 4'th q EARNIngs recovery isn't likely.....because the market's "mover's" focus is on the short as long as the MSM still try's to sell a recovery.....also traders have been awaiting for a bear market bounce to pounce on and ride....and they got the dumb money has been lured into believing the recovery fantasy IMO and the money managers will not sell sell sell as long as the sheep believe in a recovery and besides lots' of peeps already lost 50% ....if they sell now they make those losses a reality......i.e it's gonna take awhile to hit bottom...........the market should ride the 8500 level for a while IMO before falling

how much ...i dunno ....depends......who owns U.S stocks and why would they sell now.......Hedge funds foreign govt's.....pension's.....will the money managers pull the trigger.....or just keep waiting for a long as it takes

ok now back to the article

“They should know more than outsiders would, so you could take it as a signal that there is something wrong if they’re selling,” said Stone, chief investment strategist at PNC’s wealth management unit, which oversees $110 billion in Philadelphia. “Whether it’s a sustainable rebound is still in question. I’d prefer they were buying.”

“They’re going to say, ‘Thank you very much,’ and move on to cash or something else,” said David W. James, who helps manage about $2 billion at James Investment Research Inc. in Xenia, Ohio. “This is not a situation that suggests to us we’re seeing an economic recovery.”

further down the road with the obama-BIG Z agenda of big finance.....i don't see earnings bouncing back.......possibly in financial company's in a few years should CARBON TRading derivatives really get off the ground....but other than that i think the market will bascially re-set to lower that lower level the one we are at now (i.e will money managers sell THAT much more when 2'nd 3'rd 4'th Q earings don't come back as "forecast" or will they just sit and wait......b/c in some instances selling means "locking in losses.." instead of limiting damages (because you can always buy should a slow recovery start to take shape down the road) this regard i would have to defer to people who have a better handle on things like this......such as how much market moving clout do hedgefunds have.........should they get a "margin call" and sell at fire sale prices to raise capital again and send the market down.....(like 4'th and 1'st quarters)......

either way i can say will full confidence the market is not coming back in a new bull market........earnings are not and will not be there....

one thing that scares me sometimes is the amount of high unemployment we may have for many many years.....and recovery will very likely be jobless and highly due to government spending.....unless of course the world is hit by some sort of EPIDEMIC.....more deaths=less unemployment ....

[edit on 24-4-2009 by cpdaman]

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