Don't discount North Korea in fact, be weary!

Originally posted by alyosha1981

North Korea maintains uranium mines with an estimated four million tons of exploitable high-quality uranium ore. Information on the state and quality of their mines is lacking, but it is estimated that the ore contains approximately 0.8% extractable uranium. In the mid-1960s, it established a large-scale atomic energy research complex in Yongbyon and trained specialists from students who had studied in the Soviet Union. Under the cooperation agreement concluded between the USSR and the DPRK, a nuclear research center was constructed near the small town of Yongbyon. In 1965 a Soviet IRT-2M research reactor was assembled for this center. From 1965 through 1973 fuel (fuel elements) enriched to 10 percent was supplied to the DPRK for this reactor.

reply to post by ugie1028

 

It doesn't take much to reverse enginer a weapon if you already have fissionable materials and a stockpile of them at that, as well as a soviet reactor and a a U.S suplied reactor as well.
source

well didint the bomb they tested a few years back fizzle?

yea they had enough time to figure out the problem, but were watching them... if they launch, we launch...

ever heard of MAD? Mutual Assured destruction. For NK its more like SAD, Self Assured destruction...

they would be committing suicide if they launch a nuke... and i still don't think they have a slight chance of winning of inflict major damage, especially on US soil even if they have nukes.

remember it just takes one nuke to be nuked. if a bomb goes off, bye bye NK!!

since they have bombs, and proof of WMD's how come the US isnt stepping in by invading like iraq with their supposed WMDs?

i think its propaganda that NK got nukes from Russia... if so... then that would be grounds for declaring war with Russia...

reply to post by ugie1028


Good points as well! but remember that a "fizzle" denotes a weapon that didn't explode to it's full capacity and doesn't mean that they didn't learn valuable lessons in the art of nuclear weapons manufacturing.

A fizzle occurs if the nuclear chain reaction is not sustained long enough to cause an explosion, or if the explosion is of much less energy than expected. This can happen if, for example, the yield of the fissile material used is too low, the compression explosives around fissile material misfire or the neutron initiator fails.

wiki

Originally posted by alyosha1981
reply to post by ugie1028

 

Good points as well! but remember that a "fizzle" denotes a weapon that didn't explode to it's full capacity and doesn't mean that they didn't learn valuable lessons in the art of nuclear weapons manufacturing.

A fizzle occurs if the nuclear chain reaction is not sustained long enough to cause an explosion, or if the explosion is of much less energy than expected. This can happen if, for example, the yield of the fissile material used is too low, the compression explosives around fissile material misfire or the neutron initiator fails.

wiki

it still set off seismographs across the world, and that's how WE KNEW NK did a test nuke. Meaning it did explode, but it was very small. i forgot the exact yield of the bomb but, its was pretty small.

even if they had a good nuke to use, how would they USE it tactically without setting off SAD?

there should be worries with this, which i agree to, but NK isn't as much of a threat as you portray them to be IMO. they dont have the military, they dont have the technology to match up with the USA.

NK = lightweight

USA = Sumo wrestler.

The only issue i could see is an all out offensive... but let me give you an idea on how I would approach this... if it escalated to using nukes or using military...

First, id tell china, tell your boy KIM to step down, or your going to have a migration of NK residents flood your country.

Second Setup a blockade. all civilian and military units coming in and out are to be captured, or sunk!

Third, Bomb the hell out of them. air raid after air raid, after air raid. once all military targets are hit; sit on the border of NK/SK and just carpet bomb the infantry trying to enter the south. any stragglers that make it through, let the snipers, and marines get to them as they cross.

i wouldn't invade at all, i would let them come to me. once the attacks slow down and stop, move up north,

I call this tactic, (strangle hold)

BTW, any missiles that are launched can be intercepted by our 747 nuke killers! (forgot the name of this laser plane, think it was star wars?)

Check and mate.

[edit on 4/19/2009 by ugie1028]

reply to post by ugie1028


Check mate? not quite here's some info for you on the North Korean'smilitary wich incidently was listed in part in my OP.
www.fas.org...
www.fas.org...
www.globalsecurity.org...
www.globalsecurity.org...
en.wikipedia.org...'s_Army

Google Video Link

Also remember that the North Korean troops ( most of the active duty) are trained so harshly and beaten for failure and that they are indoctrinated to hate the U.S from birth almost.

[edit on 19-4-2009 by alyosha1981]

Originally posted by alyosha1981
reply to post by ugie1028

 

Check mate? not quite here's some info for you on the North Korean'smilitary wich incidently was listed in part in my OP.
www.fas.org...
www.fas.org...
www.globalsecurity.org...
www.globalsecurity.org...
en.wikipedia.org...'s_Army

Google Video Link

Also remember that the North Korean troops ( most of the active duty) are trained so harshly and beaten for failure and that they are indoctrinated to hate the U.S from birth almost.

[edit on 19-4-2009 by alyosha1981]

All the videos prove that they can march well, do some stunds, and can fight well in close quarters.

I don't think they would match up against constant bombing as they approach the SK border.(yes it will be bloody for both sides) if they do, war is war, but with the right tactics, that means nothing. they could have all the man power they want... but nothing like a well placed Hbomb, or cruise missiles!

we KNOW they have nukes so, we could play out a scenario to where we (see a missile launch), claim its a nuke, and send out tactical retaliation strikes on all their military targets... all those marching rines, GONE, all those cheering people, GONE! kim, GONE, the trees, GONE!

Or if they don't fire a nuke, we don't kill the cease fire agreement, and were still at a stalemate.

Just some quick thoughts:

1. "Weary" means exhausted or tired, "wary" means cautions or watchful. The misuses in this thread were almost as painful to read as "loose/lose."

2. North Korea does have a significant military and I don't think they should be underestimated. That said, I still think the US could rough them up pretty badly in a conventional fight. That said, I don't think North Korea would stay in a conventional fight with the US for long, they would either go nuclear or guerrilla and at best the US would be fighting another Iraq/Afghanistan.

3. I think it's pretty widely recognized (even by the mainstream media) that North Korea has nuclear weapons. In fact I didn't think anyone doubted it after the partially failed underground test in 2006. However I think the generally accepted figure for number of weapons they may have is around 5 or 6, not anywhere near hundreds. There's also the delivery problem, but it's hard to say how soon they may have that all figured out, they are obviously working on it.

4. It's not like we could just go and talk to China and say "hey, we're going to take out Kim Jong Il, just stand aside." That would be a little like if Putin stopped Obama in a hallway at a summit and said "um, hey...Canada is really pissing us off, we're going to wipe it off the map. Is that cool?" You have to understand the international political dynamics of the region in order to understand why there has been a fragile peace on the Korean peninsula for this long, and that starts with the relationship between China and the North.

reply to post by ugie1028

Please... NK isn't powerful enough to cause a threat... lets just keep them isolated like little endangered species that they are, and let them die off on their own... thats what we have been doing right?

I agree. NK COULD do one of several military options. What we (US and the free world but mainly the US since we have the only strong military with a Navy in control of the world's seas) must do is minimize each and every move NK makes so they continue down the road of ineffective isolation.

Kim Jong-il has chosen to maintain a top heavy military which has keep the civilian population in poverty. Whatever paranoid reason was responsible for his decision, his unbalanced society can't and won't continue forever. Any act of war would break Kim financially causing huge unrest in his country but to the US another military engagement would be just another annoyance.

reply to post by mtmaraca


(1) Thanks for pointing out the grammatical error in my thread title, aside from the spelling the point was taken well.

(2) The North Korean artillery batteries have long been trained on targets consisting of, U.S bases specifically motor pools and barracks, major roadways connecting the north and south, hospitals as well South Korean bases (including air) so this "bombing" you speak of would pale in comparison to the damage caused by North Korean artie alone unless this "bombing" were a first strike and that is unlikely.

Originally posted by plumranch
reply to post by ugie1028

 

Please... NK isn't powerful enough to cause a threat... lets just keep them isolated like little endangered species that they are, and let them die off on their own... thats what we have been doing right?

I agree. NK COULD do one of several military options. What we (US and the free world but mainly the US since we have the only strong military with a Navy in control of the world's seas) must do is minimize each and every move NK makes so they continue down the road of ineffective isolation.

Kim Jong-il has chosen to maintain a top heavy military which has keep the civilian population in poverty. Whatever paranoid reason was responsible for his decision, his unbalanced society can't and won't continue forever. Any act of war would break Kim financially causing huge unrest in his country but to the US another military engagement would be just another annoyance.

You are correct with your observations regarding their infrastructure, however I believe that the "destruction" of the country would come in the form of a major military operation precluding the downfall, sort of like a "last ditch effort" but in Kim's eye's it would be a "blaze of glory"

Ugie, I included the videos to help demonstrate the high level of discipline maintained by the North Korean military. Remember that D and C is a key component of military indoctrination and indicates not only form but uniform function as well. We don't have an abundance of information on their actual state of competence militarily speaking, so I have very little to work with in terms of proving my point.

[edit on 19-4-2009 by alyosha1981]

North Korea doesn't stand a chance against the smaller but far better equipped South Korean army. Even if the North Korean infantry is as well trained as the South Korean army (which, at least in terms of rounds fired downrange, I doubt), their pilots and tank crews are certainly far less competent, due to the expense involved in training with them. Not to mention that the bulk of them are of 30-40+ year old vintage.

How it would go down without North Korea using nukes, and without major US involvement is that north Korea would obliterate Seoul and everything else along the DMZ with their artillery, and then be pounded out of existence by the South Korean military over the course of a few months, at which point the Chinese government would start becoming very concerned about having a united Korean state on their border.

The north Koreans aren't prepared to throw down because they'd lose, and the south Koreans aren't prepared to throw down because they don't want to have pay to rebuild North Korea up from 3rd world status to be part of a modern state, and their capital city is within artillery range of North Korea.

The West Germans weren't all too happy about having to modernize all of East Germany, and it's horrendously inefficient industry, Just think of how the South Koreans would feel about having to rebuild a country with next to no industry or infrastructure. The only single US state with a smaller GDP than North Korea is Vermont. And it's CLOSE.

Just think of how the South Koreans would feel about having to rebuild a country with next to no industry or infrastructure.

reply to post by mdiinican


Good points!

I predict the 2 countries will be unified in the next 15 years. NC will continue to weaken and finally collapse. North Korea will go in and pick up the pieces like West Germany absorbed East. China by then will be in no postition to resist and will let it happen. And yes, China is in a tenuous position even now and will be more so in 10 years. Remember Japan collapsed economically in the 90s and noone would have predicted it in the 80s.

Originally posted by mdiinican
North Korea doesn't stand a chance against the smaller but far better equipped South Korean army. Even if the North Korean infantry is as well trained as the South Korean army (which, at least in terms of rounds fired downrange, I doubt), their pilots and tank crews are certainly far less competent, due to the expense involved in training with them. Not to mention that the bulk of them are of 30-40+ year old vintage.

Your point is well taken however remember that the North Korean military was not defeated during the Korean war only a cease fire armistice agreement reached. The R.O.K army consists of young adults who's family's are not wealthy enough for them to avoid the mandatory military service and mostly do not want a war with the north. On a side note I spoke with several katusa troopers who said that some of their R.O.K buddies would shoot at U.S soldiers before firing on their "brothers" to the north if a conflict arose.

If the North came south the 37,000 or so U.S troops stationed in South Korea specifically the one's up north (camp Greaves, camp Hovey, camp Casey) would only be a speed bump and a minor obstacle, this is well known even amongst the troops themselves.

North Korea today is not the same NK of the 1950's. Much of NK's equipment is 50's era tech... Sure they could inflict some damage, but nothing like they would have been able to back in the 50's. NK also does not have fuel to put into its war machine... Sanctions have pretty much stripped that country to the bone... I mean the logistical nightmare and lacking of fuel alone would do NK in today.

You know, for a serious topic / thread I must thank ugie1028 and mtmaraca for giving me a really good laugh!

I don't know which was funnier:

all those marching rines, GONE, all those cheering people, GONE! kim, GONE, the trees, GONE! (Trees, GONE....LOL!)

That would be a little like if Putin stopped Obama in a hallway at a summit and said "um, hey...Canada is really pissing us off, we're going to wipe it off the map. Is that cool?"

... Sure it's COOL Putin...., it's Canada for God's sake, it's always COOL! Would you like me to throw in some Polar Bears Putin?

Anyway, on topic, I hope that there won't be a war with North Korea and anyone else. But, one has to to consider a few things. Will ol Kim go even crazier and launch nukes to go out in a final blaze of glory? or is he going to piss off a country like the USA so bad, and they decide they've had enough of this idiot!? Maybe even send him to meet Saddam?

Nuclear war....WOW, not what I would like to see at all

Originally posted by TortoiseKweek
You know, for a serious topic / thread I must thank ugie1028 and mtmaraca for giving me a really good laugh!

I don't know which was funnier:

all those marching rines, GONE, all those cheering people, GONE! kim, GONE, the trees, GONE! (Trees, GONE....LOL!)

That would be a little like if Putin stopped Obama in a hallway at a summit and said "um, hey...Canada is really pissing us off, we're going to wipe it off the map. Is that cool?"

... Sure it's COOL Putin...., it's Canada for God's sake, it's always COOL! Would you like me to throw in some Polar Bears Putin?

Anyway, on topic, I hope that there won't be a war with North Korea and anyone else. But, one has to to consider a few things. Will ol Kim go even crazier and launch nukes to go out in a final blaze of glory? or is he going to piss off a country like the USA so bad, and they decide they've had enough of this idiot!? Maybe even send him to meet Saddam?

Nuclear war....WOW, not what I would like to see at all

As can be gathered from my posts here, I'm leaning to the "blaze of glory" scenario on this to me it's just a rational conclusion for an irrational leader. If [he] is willing to starve civilians to fund the military then why wouldn't he be willing to sacrifice millions of lives in a nuclear conflict?

Originally posted by Fox News
North Korea today is not the same NK of the 1950's. Much of NK's equipment is 50's era tech... Sure they could inflict some damage, but nothing like they would have been able to back in the 50's. NK also does not have fuel to put into its war machine... Sanctions have pretty much stripped that country to the bone... I mean the logistical nightmare and lacking of fuel alone would do NK in today.

How can anybody be sure what the actual amount of fuel holding is for North Korea? you don't think they get any from China? what about stockpiles? and do they not poses oil recovery operations? I think they have plenty of fuel.

us would never occupy korea, theres no point the only reason this hasnt been dealt with militarily is the fact that the minute something goes bad the north has a #load of arty pointed right at seoul, 1 in 4 i l ast heard has bio weapons mustard gas etc in them, so by doing nothing and letting that retard die which isnt to long of a wait apparently. your saving lives i can pretty much g uaranteee once hes gone north koreas going to be entirely diff,

I was reading this thread last night, and guess what story in the Australian this morning. Yep you guessed it, a story confirming that western powers are acknowledging that North Korea has become a full nuclear power. See article exert below:
Source

THE world's intelligence agencies and defence experts are quietly acknowledging that North Korea has become a full nuclear power, with the capacity to wipe out entire cities in Japan and South Korea.

The new reality has emerged in off-hand remarks and single sentences buried in lengthy reports.

Increasing numbers of authoritative experts -- from the head of the International Atomic Energy Agency to the US Defence Secretary -- admit North Korea has miniaturised nuclear warheads to the extent they can be launched on medium-range missiles, according to intelligence briefings.

This puts the country ahead of Iran in the race for nuclear attack capability and alters the balance of power between North Korea's large but poorly equipped military and the South Korean and US forces ranged against it.

"North Korea has nuclear weapons, which is a matter of fact," IAEA head Mohamed ElBaradei said. "I don't like to accept any country as a nuclear-weapon state, but we have to face reality."

I was surprised when reading this as you can imagine since reading through the thread last night and saying " I wonder"

North Korea only has a single threat the world is unprepared to face:

Detonating a nuclear device at the proper height to fry electronics and satellites the world over.

One swing, and Military Intelligence, Economics, and Global Communications die.

Originally posted by alyosha1981
How can anybody be sure what the actual amount of fuel holding is for North Korea? you don't think they get any from China? what about stockpiles? and do they not poses oil recovery operations? I think they have plenty of fuel.

Im pretty sure China uses all the fuel it can get. So no, I doubt they are subsidizing NK with fuel.

They very well may poses the ability to recover oil, but as nations like Iran cannot, and do not have the ability to convert it into workable consumption for vehicles, I think its safe to assume same is true for the Koreans up north. Also, I am unaware of vast oil reserves in or around the Korean peninsula.

[edit on 25-4-2009 by Fox News]

reply to post by Fox News

North Korea has an estimated reserve of 155 million tons (12 million barrels) in offshore oil fields in its Western sea area, a south Korean monthly magazine reported. "North Korea has five oil deposit zones in the Western sea, 150 km off the Nampo seashore, South Pyongan Province," it said. The monthly Shin Dong-A quoted a Korean-American expert as saying, "It has five zones in the area; 65 million tons in the first zone, 50 million tons in the second zone, 30 million tons in the third zone, a small amount of oil in the fourth zone, and 10 million tons in the fifth zone." In its December issue, Shin Dong-A interviews Dr. Pak (tentative name), who earned his Ph.D in nuclear physics at MIT, on condition of anonymity, revealed that north Korea is giving priority to developing the field in the third zone (30 million-ton class). "You will find five offshore rigs in the area. The north Koreans have its own oil rigs. I estimate that if we develop this area, the north Koreans will have a capacity to produce oil on its own," Dr. Pak said. According to south Korea's vernacular monthly magazine, Dr. Pak who visited the north twice in 1994 and 1995, said that north Korea has six other oil fields such as the Pyongyang Basin, Onchon Basin (Nampo), Anju Basin (South Pyongan Province), East Sea Basin, Kyongson Bay Basin (Chonjin), and the Kilju Basin (North Hamgyong Province). (NOTE: The data differ from the DPRK government's report. The Ministry of Petroleum Industry concluded in its recent survey that there are eight oil-bearing basins in the DPRK. -- Ed.)

Source