Is this really "it" this time? Recession comparisons from the past

I was hoping to get some points of view from some of our "older" members who were aware of the economic situations in the early 80's, mid-70's and beyond.. How were people speculating back then? Were they more hopeful of a recovery or did they seem to think that this was "it"?
"It" meaning the end of the financial system and the probability of the next Depression.
Personally, I feel there is so little confidence in the market that it is keeping investors out. Even those who hold short positions are risking alot with the instability of the current market. Nothing seems to make sense anymore. Thanks in advance for your input.

[edit on 01/29/09 by Bass9]

This time is very different than in the 80's. With Carter in office we had high inflation, very high taxes and in general a somber business outlook. This time because of everything being so Global, things look dismal. A new president(small p intended) who wants to control every aspect of the business community, every aspect of our daily lives, and wants to redistribute income, it's scary. I personally think that this is IT. Major loss of personal freedoms with bring about some sort of major protest, and in general major conflict between Big government and its citizens. I hope I'm wrong but I don't think so. Things will get worse, much worse.

The markets move 4-6 months faster than the real world. The full effect of Lehmans hasn't even hit yet! What we are actually seeing is merely the start...

That means that the markets have gone into this faster, and will stabilize faster than the real world.

We will only be in a true, unequivocal depression in about Q3/Q4 of this year.

Most people are scared of it... I'm interested to see what happens. I think its time to adapt and survive. The world has been without competition for too long.

I was in business for myself back in the 80's recession and also in business for myself now (although two unrelated busniesses). The 80's recession was tough. I saw alot of people lose their busniesses --- in some cases family businesses that had lasted generations. This time is very much different.

The job situation was poor but not nearly as dire in the 80's. Banks were still lending and people were still buying and selling homes (albeit at a slower rate). People were bummed but I never got the sense that people thought we were circling the drain.

Today, people seem a great deal more fearful. Large institutions are in far more serious trouble and, of course, the Feds are having to pump obscene amounts of money into the system to stave-off a full-scale implosion.

This time it feels like we are in serious, serious trouble.

Like those that expressed above.

To put it real simple.

80's - This sucks! - We will change things in the next election.

Now - Oh Sh*t! - Either fight for our country, or run for cover.

The eighties aren't comparable to now, primarily because the US wasn't so intimately connected to the global economy as it is today, and because the USSR still existed, which allowed greater freedom of action.

This time around, all the economies are tanking simultaneously, because of globaliztion. Now, there is no economy strong enough to support others while they recover, and there is no monolithic threat to unite against. Plus, in the eighties there were no such things as CDOs and CDSs: these new financial "products" are really nothing but multi-trillion dollar scams.

This is so far worse than the eighties it ain't funny.

We are sooooo screwed.

I agree with everything posted above and will add that back in the early 80's at least we knew in the back of our minds that then Fed Chair Volker had a lot of amo in his camp to re-fire the economy by lowering then sky high interest rates.

Today we've been basically at ZERO percent interest for some time now and the economies are still cliff diving.

That certainly causes me to really wonder what lies ahead.

The Official "up-to-the-minute Market Data" thread
www.abovetopsecret.com...

2009 Depression Validated
www.abovetopsecret.com...

If it ain't "The End" it sure SEEMS like it...
if it walks like a duck...ect

[edit on 3/2/2009 by Hx3_1963]

reply to post by apacheman


Wow! you gave me a flash back!

Remember the Mickey Mouse bumper stickers and poster?

You know there were two of them.
One for the USSR and the other for Iran.

It said, "Hey Iran!"

and it was Mickey flipping them the bird............lol

You don't see that kind of outspokeness these days.

Originally posted by Bass9
I was hoping to get some points of view from some of our "older" members who were aware of the economic situations in the early 80's. How were people speculating back then? Were they more hopeful of a recovery or did they seem to think that this was "it"?
"It" meaning the end of the financial system and the probability of the next Depression.
Personally, I feel there is so little confidence in the market that it is keeping investors out. Even those who hold short positions are risking alot with the instability of the current market. Nothing seems to make sense anymore. Thanks in advance for your input.

I don’t want to hijack your post but I think it might be insightful if you included in your request an invitation to anyone here that knows people that have had actual experience with the 1929-1940 depression. I would like to hear what people have to say about the months leading up to the depression and what the first five and the last five years looked like. How did they know that the SHTF and how did it progress for them. I know that there are still some old-timers out there and a few might even be lurking in the shadows but what are grandparents saying about this?

Well, it is WAAAAAAAY different; so much so that it is becoming almost impossible to find comparisons. The primary difference, and primary driver is, in a word, globalization! There are inherent benefits and protections built into compartmentalization - think of how ships are built to prevent sinking. Once the system is completely opened up, the smallest leak will ultimately sink you! Going global removed all of the compartmentalization and now everyone is subjected to one huge pool of risk without the necessary safety measures.

Another area where compartmentalization was removed was the repeal of Glass-Stegall that allowed investment banks to function as S&Ls and vice-versa. Another terrible idea!

Safety nets were cut away when Congress mandated that the banks make home loans to low-income people. Continued growth of unchecked monopolies due to a breakdown in the FTC and SEC also contributed to the creation of companies that are "Too big to fail."

If we had remained compartmentalized then it would be much easier to recover as the problem could be limited to it's compartment. But, the greed of a few men in their quest for empire and politicians complicit in the scheme removed the safety nets and here we are. The problem could still be fixed but it would likely destroy the wealth and power amassed by these few greedy men - and they are not likely to let go that easily.

I'm afraid that we are screwed this time. The entire system needs to unwind completely before we can rebuild one with better safe-guards.

reply to post by NightSkyeB4Dawn


I can tell you one thing, they didn't have the internet
or satTV!!!

reply to post by NightSkyeB4Dawn



I didn't live during The Great Depression but I saw a documentary a few days ago and one lady interviewed back then said "it didn't bother us none we'uns wuz already dirt poor". I think that was true of a lot of people back then, but now you have 90 percent of the USA been living on credit for 20 years, have a new house two new cars, baby grand piano etc. but nothing is actually owned/paid for. It's the coming-down-several-notches syndrome that will hurt so much.






[edit on 2-3-2009 by Bombeni]

Originally posted by j2000
Like those that expressed above.

To put it real simple.

80's - This sucks! - We will change things in the next election.

Now - Oh Sh*t! - Either fight for our country, or run for cover.

I'd also add to your "Now" section:
"Won't someone please save us? We're too stupid/broke/oppressed to do it outselves!" (Hand outstretched...)

Originally posted by shrike071

Originally posted by j2000
Like those that expressed above.

To put it real simple.

80's - This sucks! - We will change things in the next election.

Now - Oh Sh*t! - Either fight for our country, or run for cover.

I'd also add to your "Now" section:
"Won't someone please save us? We're too stupid/broke/oppressed to do it outselves!" (Hand outstretched...)

I am so afraid that you are right.

I try to talk to my teenage nieces and nephews and they still have their spoil, I am so entitled that my parents and the world owe me attitudes. I am almost glad that reality is going to slap them in the face.

I think that we all need wake up calls and it is time for us to stop depending on a rogue government to save us.

My one potato maybe not get me very far, but if you add your one carrot, and someone else adds their one onion and someone else adds their handful of peas, well, you get the picture.

None us with short hands and long spoons will starve if we take care of each other.

reply to post by shrike071


I agree with you on that one! good add....that's why I can't get anyone off there asses to do anything about it....................

Originally posted by NightSkyeB4Dawn

Originally posted by Bass9
I was hoping to get some points of view from some of our "older" members who were aware of the economic situations in the early 80's. How were people speculating back then? Were they more hopeful of a recovery or did they seem to think that this was "it"?
"It" meaning the end of the financial system and the probability of the next Depression.
Personally, I feel there is so little confidence in the market that it is keeping investors out. Even those who hold short positions are risking alot with the instability of the current market. Nothing seems to make sense anymore. Thanks in advance for your input.

I don’t want to hijack your post but I think it might be insightful if you included in your request an invitation to anyone here that knows people that have had actual experience with the 1929-1940 depression. I would like to hear what people have to say about the months leading up to the depression and what the first five and the last five years looked like. How did they know that the SHTF and how did it progress for them. I know that there are still some old-timers out there and a few might even be lurking in the shadows but what are grandparents saying about this?

Duly noted! I didnot want to leave anyone out so I changed my original post.

I was born in 1975 and did not really pay attention to economic news very closely. I do remember growing up below medium income though and I just made do with what I had. I felt proud to make something out of nothing, save my money and feel a sense of responsibility.

These days I see things differently. Often I ask myself if this is the same feeling that all people get when they get older and are able to make observations and compare them to their own personal experiences. It seems every generation is filled with those who see things as too easy compared to their generation, like their generation before said to them.

Transpose this set of loose ideals to the current market and you can see the point of my post more clearly. I know this site is filled with posts claiming the end days are near, and for good reason. I just want some real world perspective to make our comparisons and draw conclusions from them.

Thank you to all who have posted so far. It is very interesting to hear from you.

Originally posted by NightSkyeB4Dawn
I try to talk to my teenage nieces and nephews and they still have their spoil, I am so entitled that my parents and the world owe me attitudes. I am almost glad that reality is going to slap them in the face.

Are you for real? "Glad!?!"

I lost my job, I eat once a day, and I am on the brink of getting evicted from a home in which the heat is locked in at 60 degrees (in Michigan, during the winter), and the shelter is full. I can only get on the internet when I'm at the library (which is often, because I have to use the internet as a tool to find job openings). I have a solid resume, a college education, and I am not a felon. Yet, even though I apply to 10 jobs a day, I have not found work -- and I apply for any job that becomes available within my area. So does everybody else. Everybody I know gets up in the morning and tries, and tries, and tries. Everyday, it doesn't work.

To be glad that my generation is receiving what you call a "slap in the face" is...well, that's just heartless. We weren't the ones who started this "borrow and spend" culture, we were only socialized by it.

But go ahead, moan about the young people if it makes you feel better.


[edit on 2-3-2009 by theWCH]

reply to post by Bass9



Well I heard Rush Limbuagh say things where a lot better now then they where in 80s.

something about that statement seemed so wrong to me. How can a guy like that be so out of touch. Also. Not trying to jack your thread.