What Blows up Next?

both Bernanke and Paulson....


I will edit it myself

[edit on 14-1-2009 by St Udio]

the mod & myself will know if/when anyone comes close to what i wrote

[edit on 14-1-2009 by St Udio]

Originally posted by St Udio
both Bernanke and Paulson....

.....will be caught minutes before their flight to Paraguay and meet their end at the hands of an uruly mob...

one tidbit to note is that those waiting for a treasury (dollar) shoe to drop should wonder why the treasury debt PRICES soared so spectacularly in 08

FOREIGN Central banks traded in one dollar asset for the other in 08, and the fed had to back stop the (dollar asset) that foreign central banks dumped in 08 (U.S agency debt i.e Fannie mae bonds, etc). the selling of this agency debt in exchange for the buying of treasury's STRongly contributed to the treasury rally. the central banks have little more agency debt to sell, so the demand for treasury's should not ramp up any higher.

What do you think the foreign central banks will buy when they feel less confident in treasury debt ................or need to sell liquid (dollar assets)/treasury's to keep there currency's from falling too fast..........

GOLD? remember you don't need price inflation or even much inflation in the money supply to see a commodity soar.....( GOLD ).....all you need is a flight of money from a large "pool" into a " growing puddle" (wether due to reward (as was the case with oil in summer 08) or wether due to necessity or fear as we may see when central banks start selling treasury's and buying.....among other things............... GOLD.

i wish we could have more discussion along these lines..........from anyone that has some feedback

[edit on 14-1-2009 by cpdaman]

reply to post by cpdaman

First I took a full measure of the 10yr note & 30yr bond auctions CP...10yr - monthly...30yr - Feb 12 & May 7. Then I sprinkled-in a cup 'o Martin Armstrong's Economic Confidence Model, which forecasts an April 19 turn-date. Surely this method demonstrates why my musings should never be construed as reliable investment advice

I wouldn't believe anyone that claimed at this juncture, that they can accurately predict a BM dislocation...let alone time-it...just my shot-in-the-dark for a worst-case blow-up.

GL

what do you think of the last post i made Obe1 .......

reply to post by cpdaman

I'm in agreement CP. Monetizing to artificially inflate bond prices...to artificially depress interest rates = a Keynesian circle-jerk imho. With the Fed unable to raise interest rates to attract bond purchasers...the target market, China, the oil producers, and lessor Asian satellites, will demand a currency discount...and since I don't see US monetary authorities having a problem/option with diluting the money supply...........enter Gold.

....but I admit I'm kinda biased here.

[edit on 14-1-2009 by OBE1]

Hmmm, not really gonna get into the gold/pm debate anymore. I concede that a certain amount of physical gold/silver is prudent. Given the historical precedent set by FDR (even though at the time $'s were backed by gold) of banning US citizens from holding bullion, I am weary of to high an allocation to gold.

God I'd love to be on the right side of a bond market dislocation when it comes, but I agree that the timing of such a thing is near impossible to predict. I do think that when it happens it will be sudden and dramatic.

It's looking like we may find out what blows up next sooner than I expected. I was thinking it would be at least till after inauguration. The Nikkie is down around 5% as of 11pm est. Japanese machinery orders are down around 16%.

I still think there is something amiss at Citigroup and Bank of America seems to be having some indigestion with Merryl. I can honestly say that I would be only mildly surprised if we woke up one morning and found out pretty much any major bank had imploded.

Bond bubble will burst and I see it happening this summer. Until then you wont see any major deaths although you will still get some doom and gloom news. When the bond bubble does burst watch gold/silver go to the moon.

Originally posted by cpdaman
......

FOREIGN Central banks traded in one dollar asset for the other in 08, and the fed had to back stop the (dollar asset) that foreign central banks dumped in 08 (U.S agency debt i.e Fannie mae bonds, etc). the selling of this agency debt in exchange for the buying of treasury's STRongly contributed to the treasury rally. the central banks have little more agency debt to sell, so the demand for treasury's should not ramp up any higher.

What do you think the foreign central banks will buy when they feel less confident in treasury debt ................or need to sell liquid (dollar assets)/treasury's to keep there currency's from falling too fast..........

GOLD? .....[edit on 14-1-2009 by cpdaman]

i'm not SURE about this one, i will be thinking about it for a while

perhaps when foreign central banks try to " sell/diversify out of treasury's" to stabalize their own currency's ( as well as the point FCB's don't seem to need to hold as many $$$ when the oil price is low) perhaps the FED will try to issue it's own debt to boost dollar demand ........remember this came out a week ago online.wsj.com...

but what would the new fed debt be backed by? who would buy it? possibly the IMF and world bank? could the global warming/ carbon credit cashcow be purchased with this new fed debt (then Foreign cent. banks's (fcb's) would jump in............that is the only way i could see demand for it growing........ "ohh save the earth and make me rich" is what i imagine al gore and maurice strong singing in the shower.

"Mo" strong is sitting on the board at the Chicago Climate Exchange and this exchange may still be the worlds only exchange for legally binding greenhouse gas emission registry reduction system .....GW the new religion.........i wonder how many global warming devotee's also criticize religion how ironic that would be....GW too big of an issue for some people who care about the enviornment to not have "on there side" i.e politicos manipulated people's own good intentions for $$ caught hook line and sinker.... ...rant off

p.s MO strong has NWO ties.......he wrote the intro to a paper published by the Tri lateral commission called called Beyond Interdependence; the Meshing of the World’s Economy and The Earth’s Ecology. part of this intro was

This interlocking…is the new reality of the century, with profound implications for the shape of our institutions of governance, national and international. By the year 2012, these changes must be fully integrated into our economic and political life.”

bueller...........bueller.......remember we will have world gov't by consent or conquest.........and the Elite's beleive OBAMA is the man to bring the world to world gov't thru consent.........i wouldn't bet against it!

last thing.......any hope for the economy to grow within the corrupt frame work they operate within is for the banks to writedown the PRINCIPAL OWED on the mortgages by millions of american's........and the sorry gov't will pay the banks for any losses........and those who lived within there means will pay .......it is a paradox.......but would you rather be punished a couple grand in tax's or watch the economy spiral into oblivion.

[edit on 15-1-2009 by cpdaman]

reply to post by cpdaman


I choose to let the economy spiral into oblivion .. the way I see it, to postpone the collapse at this point is essentially putting the economy into a coma and placing it on life support.. nonfunctional, unprogressive, unresponsive... at our current track we will be bringing about a dark age of sorts. face it. At this point we are hoping for the flat line of stagnation in comparison to our deflating economy, as growth is seemingly far off on the horizon in 2010-2012 at the earliest..

Sometimes you have to pull the plug, begin anew. As for "one world government" if ever there was a time to bring about such an audacious plan. Now would be that time. I just cannot see it occurring before some kind of catastrophic upheaval in our way of life... economic.. wars.. something to let our guard down. I have always believed that one world rule is impossible given the tribal tendencies of Humanity, to have one leading body appease the entire world at once ...

It would be a short lived venture.

hey rockpuck

when you look at the options from the perspective of those at the top of the economic pyramid......the creditors......they i would think....l choose to forgive just enough mortgage debt that allows the people incentive to stay in there homes and pay there tax cuts and rebates and income (the majority of this group should still have a job!) to the bankers via mortgage..............that amount will be upward of 1.5 -2 trillion dollars in the end.

a even lower standard of living is coming down the pike.....and there wont be a rebound on the national level at least in a 4 year time period.....obviously any individual can still maintain or increase there quality of life if they are lucky and positioned well. Once house prices stabalize (w/ the help of judges getting ability to write down debt) .......banks may begin lending.......then people may begin spending....then unemployment can bottom.

and continuing with the thread topic .........watch foreign giants like The BRIC group brazil ,russia china, india fall fast and furious.........when there central banks start tearing thru there reserves (mostly dollars).......U.S bond prices will rise.........and should the fed try to buy enough.....the dollar will weaken and price inflation will show up.......and cost of living will go down further but Assets still have a ways to go down........the markets could fall 50% from HERE!


coutresty of martin weiss

www.marketoracle.co.uk...

Everywhere from Argentina and Mexico to Australia, New Zealand and even the once-rich Middle East, the worldwide debt crisis, the bust in commodities and the sharp slowdown in global trade are transforming massive booms into instant recessions.

It's happening fast and it's accelerating. Government rescue programs aren't nearly enough to turn the tide. And it's another key reason you must approach 2009 with great caution.

Stick with safety. Don't veer from the course I have laid out for avoiding the dangers. Wait for the truly big price declines ahead before reinvesting!

he still likes 3 month t-bills i believe (90% allocation)

and to OBE 1 and a rebuke of my own post (about FCB's selling treasury's and buying gold) could they just sell the treasury's and not necessarily buy anything and just live with lower reserves

[edit on 16-1-2009 by cpdaman]

www.marketoracle.co.uk...

Yep = amazing...im getting on the gold wagon.


HOwever this is MORE amazing


www.financialsense.com...

Here is my list of things that I believe will blow up next in chronological order:

1. Small business's will fail in the masses
2. Restaurant chains will fail in the masses
3. Commercial real estate will collapse
4. States will fail like dominos
5. Due to the above large corporations will not be able to sell their goods
because no one will be able to afford them due to massive job loss and
we will see those that were recently bailed out collapse.


I think the government is aware of this and is making a last ditch effort (with the bailouts') to show the people that they made an attempt and cannot be blamed because they “tried”. This is just my theory based on what I have been observing.

Originally posted by Melissa101

Here is my list of things that I believe will blow up next in chronological order:

1. Small business's will fail in the masses
2. Restaurant chains will fail in the masses
3. Commercial real estate will collapse
4. States will fail like dominos
5. Due to the above large corporations will not be able to sell their goods
because no one will be able to afford them due to massive job loss and
we will see those that were recently bailed out collapse.


I think the government is aware of this and is making a last ditch effort (with the bailouts') to show the people that they made an attempt and cannot be blamed because they “tried”. This is just my theory based on what I have been observing.

sounds pretty logical........Cali suspending Refund checks and tax rebates in exchange for possible IOU's speaks to the sorry "state" of affairs