I shorted the DOW at 8400, now I'm in serious pain

Long DXD. I feel sick after today's rally.

But I am holding my bet, I know the dow will see the 6000's within 1 month.


There is just no good news out there.

Originally posted by downtown436


But I am holding my bet, I know the dow will see the 6000's within 1 month.


There is just no good news out there.

Buy buy buy!

LINKY HERE


He He He

reply to post by downtown436


There is a little good news out there, but you have to know how to work it. However, the greatest majority are in much pain as you are, so don't feel so bad about it because you're far from alone.

Stand fast...you'll be fine...there is no market right now outside of pure manipulation....this manipulated rally will peak around 9000-9200 and quickly fall to @6000, where it will flounder for a short period before the death spiral to 1500-2000....

Yup, i don't like saying it, but we prob will see 8000 at/near end of the week again,we most likely have another 6-12 months untill bottom,get it over with already ,who wants/will lend to a country that has to borrow to pay back? The dollar has become transparent and is going to fall,that my friend is a fact.

Closing up his short-only hedge fundreply to post by downtown436


Here is an example of a Hedge Fund closing that is shorts only. CNBC said today that many Hedge Funds are in trouble, shorting or not. It's a tough market.

I got out of the market because of repeated bad news 2 or 3 wks before the crash. So I was a market timer that lucked out. Then after about 3 wks of down markets I selected several small caps that looked like they bottomed plus were PROFITABLE with good P/E ratios. I checked after today and I'm in the black.

It does look like a bottom is forming in general but who knows for sure. There is a lot of bad news out there and people love to embrace it.

If you look out on the street, however, people seem to be going about their business.

The time to short may have passed but there are still a lot of short candidates, just don't expect to get rich at this point.


[edit on 9/12/08 by plumranch]

500,000 jobs lost in Nov. Dont worry, hold tight you are correct, the market has much more down that up.

OP, you're taking part in what's keeping the "rally" going. Other shorts aren't holding on and are fueling the rise. Hitting the MA50 today is critical. Tomorrow should be a large down day - and the MSM will blame the bad news, which the market has been "ignoring" until now.

Watch those Bear Market, counter trend rallies if you like playing the dark side. That's something I've painfully learned over the past year or so. The rallies in a Bear Market can be HUGE and last way longer than you think possible. I think for at least another year the overall direction will be down, with some rallies that will kill your account quick if your short. I've said it before, and I'll say it again, Bear Markets are kind to neither Bears or Bulls the massive rallies can hurt some one on the wrong side of it bad. Definately not an investors market right now except maybe those with decades long retirement horizons, and Buffetesque bargain hunters (though with that put he wrote against the S&P, I'm not sure he's as good as he used to be).

reply to post by RolandBrichter


I hope you are right man, I nearly puked earlier this afternoon.

Originally posted by downtown436
reply to post by RolandBrichter

 

I hope you are right man, I nearly puked earlier this afternoon.

I nearly puked when I read somebody hopes a prediction of the Dow at 1500-2000 is right. You do realize that in addition to hoping corporations on the market fail (along with the jobs that will be lost from those companies) that you're hoping people will lose their retirement funds, their life savings, and their financial future, right? Wow, and I thought the stuffed suits were greedy SOBs.

From looking at the technical data, I think a fairly sound short-term bottom has been established somewhere around the 8000 mark. If it revisits that level, I'd execute your position at that time. However, a caveat. I take no responsibility for any action that you take. That is purely my opinion. Personally, I wouldn't touch the market for quite a while. You're running up against the microsecond trades, and you're not big enough to play that game. Again, that's just my opinion.

reply to post by downtown436


Another unfortunate political factor in this crisis is the political drumming of a down market to produce a result similar to the '92 Clinton campaign. "Worst economy in decades, .... I feel your pain!" and immediately after Clinton's election the economy is amazingly out of recession and into a nice recovery. The wonders of modern (liberal) media spin1 (In reality the '92 recovery showed signs of beginning in the last Bush year and Clinton was mearly the benifactor.)

Thanks to the media we know and love, we can count on a spin like: "Barack economic recovery for 2009" after Jan. 20th. Whether or not it will hold up in this shaky economy is, of course, in doubt.

Originally posted by burdman30ott6

Originally posted by downtown436
reply to post by RolandBrichter

 

I hope you are right man, I nearly puked earlier this afternoon.

I nearly puked when I read somebody hopes a prediction of the Dow at 1500-2000 is right. You do realize that in addition to hoping corporations on the market fail (along with the jobs that will be lost from those companies) that you're hoping people will lose their retirement funds, their life savings, and their financial future, right? Wow, and I thought the stuffed suits were greedy SOBs.

Well, in my case at least, I'm not "hoping" the market tanks, it will do that no matter what our wishes are...the profundity of evidence, both technical and non- technical, is simply pointing towards an unprecidented correction....The world is going to have to come to grips with the plain truth that the great run we've had over the last 20 years will have to be paid for eventually...and that time is probably now.

Our false sense of wealth is entirely based on consumer and .gov debt...and is entirely unsustainable....Keynesian Theory has run it's inevitable course.....

I often wonder why folks find the idea of living in a sustainable fashion so absolutely horrifying...

Originally posted by downtown436
I shorted the DOW at 8400, now I'm in serious pain

But I am holding my bet, I know the dow will see the 6000's within 1 month.

Stops are my friend

Preservation of capitol my priority

When a "trade" morphs-into a buy & hold...it's typically a discipline issue. Hoping & praying for a reversal is an uncomfortable strategy. Preferably, cut losses pronto...re-evaluate...re-enter.

A GTC buy stop, and/or out-of-the-money call option...can make for sweeter dreams.

GLTY

Originally posted by burdman30ott6

Originally posted by downtown436
reply to post by RolandBrichter

 

I hope you are right man, I nearly puked earlier this afternoon.

I nearly puked when I read somebody hopes a prediction of the Dow at 1500-2000 is right. You do realize that in addition to hoping corporations on the market fail (along with the jobs that will be lost from those companies) that you're hoping people will lose their retirement funds, their life savings, and their financial future, right? Wow, and I thought the stuffed suits were greedy SOBs.

Well, it's not GREED per se, as that poster himself is incredibly unlikely to profit from such an event. It's more like morbid fascination. I hope. Or just trying to confirm he made the 'right' decision.

@ OP; no worries, sir, evidence points to your being in the right here.

[edit on 9-12-2008 by '___'eviant]

reply to post by downtown436


23% SURGE with some of the WORST economic news in over FORTY YEARS.

If I where in the market, I would have sold or shorted too..

But I am not playing in this irrational market. Everything is speculation and creating waves to sell the waves.. no logic what so ever.. lost 533,000 jobs in one month and stocks shoot up 300 points because the President Elect said he MIGHT do something a few months from now.

WTF ever.

you should have gotten out in September like the rest of the world

currently the entire market is run by computers to keep up appearances

if the real numbers where to appear, well the SWHTF very shortly thereafter

the market is a completely controlled, contrived fantasy

reply to post by downtown436


FYO, many indicators say that we are in a short to medium term market upturn. So bet on a mild bull market and stop the shorts on the market in general. But be ready to get out in a couple days to a week if the market turns sour again.

My assessment using my analysis software by Warden Brothers, inc. plus some common sense.

DOW120.91+1.39%
8,812.24

buy buy buy



Bonds are good.