Oil falls below 43$ a barrel today

I wonder if the fast drop in the price of oil is simply us trying to put the squeeze on the Saudis to not even think about dropping the dollar. Watch soon they will start to make their climb back up after the holidays. That is if the Saudis decide to play nice. Just my opinion.

reply to post by tensetek


Yes I have heard Lindsay Williams and his theories about oil. He was exactly spot on, with his 50$ oil prediction. He made that prediction when oil was extremely high, and many people including myself thought hyperinflation was taking hold. If you asked me in June what I thought the price of oil would be in Jan 09', I would have said 250$.

Here we are. Oil is now in the low 40$ a barrel range.

Williams has said the result would be the destruction of the economies of most if not all middle eastern oil producing nations.

He also said that that would in turn kill the American economy.

I don't know what will happen, things are so crazy I can't even guess what is next market wise.

Williams made the prediction that McCain would win. That did not happen, I don't know what to make of that failed prediction. It could be that his source could be using him to spread dis-info. I don't know.

oil may be able to get down into the upper 20's.

hedge funds selling like mad caused most of the longs in the futures market to close out there positions

the dollar's rise as leveraged bets unwound and a demand for dollars (investors seeking the safety of treasury's) furthed funneled money out of oil. It is clearly laughable now that people were claiming it was standard supply and demand driving the price of oil, the global demand for oil may have fallen 5 percent as supply has been cut a percent or two and the price has fallen ......what 70 percent...

one thing to remember is to NOT LISTEN TO THE "FIRE ECONOMY" economists i.e Finance, Insurance, Real estate (think of them as the equivilant as greasy used car salesman only they sell debt ) these include the economists on the MSM, Cnbc (minus rick santelli most of the time) CNN, Fox news, WSJ, Barron's, and any other SHILLS who try to PIMP stock and bonds and paint the rosiest perspective people are willing to buy not beccause it is the most likely scenario, or even has a 10% chance, but because they can frame it based on associations with past conditions that may have huge fundamental differences with today, yet the listener has no idea, so it sounds believeable, and afterall they want to believe.............and what you get is the worst "advice" and the most limiting beliefs about the markets i.e Nobody has a crystal ball....you can't "time" the markets........the financial crisis is too difficult for even "us" to understand.......going forward buy and hold is the best strategy...........oh not to forget believing them (during a bear market and even the run up) will give you the best chance ..of burning a hole in your portfolio/wallet/401k/ nest egg,etc.

i could go on and on

[edit on 6-12-2008 by cpdaman]

[edit on 6-12-2008 by cpdaman]

I found an opinion made by someone who really knows what he is talking about, even though the present market may not be the same person as it once was.
caps.fool.com...

The truth is, I have no idea where oil prices are headed. But I don't think it's a gimme that they're going back to $100/barrel. In fact, if you gave me 2-1 odds, I'd bet they hit $25/barrel first.

Interesting bet: It's July 2009. If you look back at the oil prices chart, would you see $25 first before $100, or the oil would never go that low? What if the chart wouldn't include both prices at all?

stander i would go with option "c" neither

i'm not sure if there is enough momentum left in the euro downward (which makes up 58% of the dollar index) to strengthen the dollar further which would help oil get down that low. But with the demand falling like it may continue to for a while, who knows how low we can go. I think 30-32 will be the low for 2009.

The best option for 100 would be a war with iran the cuts supply back, but that wouldn't be enough unless people also bet against the dollar in that situation. I'm not sure if that kind of 1-2 punch could gain momentum, (during a time when there is so much risk aversion in the mkts which is dollar positive) but a war in iran may trigger more oil longs and dollar shorts and could push it up.

bernanke wants a weaker dollar because that is a helping hand to fight deflation and bernanke mentioned the fed may being buying t-debt which is inflationary but on the other side Barack Said that we will not just print our way out of this so the jaw bowning is in effect.



[edit on 6-12-2008 by cpdaman]

reply to post by Blaine91555


Thats a good point you've brought up there - how to effect everyone!!

reply to post by cpdaman

You know, I really don't care about Bernanke's schemes. This is what I need to know: I can put 10% down and borrow the rest to buy a whole tanker of oil for $26 per barrel from a guy who bought it from the Saudis for the market value of $25 per barrel. But I need to take a calculated risk that before the tanker shows up in Long Beach Harbor, the market price will go up to $28 per barrel, so I can easily sell it to someone for $27, pay off the lender the principal+interest and pocket my margin. If I don't see a reliable upward trend in oil prices, I'm out of the oil futures. And if I'm out, who is going to bid $26 for $25 per barrel worth of oil and take the prices of oil up before they are even scheduled to go up?

If the oil producing countries don't cut the production the way I can do the math and see the right figures to come back to the oil futures, then the oil is not going to move up the way we saw it before July 2008. There is no other way around it at this moment.

Look, the Saudis have huge investments going in the USA; they want to see the US economy turning its wheels. So they are not listening to Venezuela screaming for oil production cuts. But at one point the Saudis will do the math and slow down their pumps. How does that point look like? It takes much, much more than a google search to find out.

Oil Companies are scared sh!tless because of the new electric cars, thus they raised prices to get as much money as they can now. Its funny how there is no proof what so ever that we have an oil shortage. The whole "Iraq" war was funded by our spending money on oil. Now no one cares about the war...Obama is president, Bush is out, and oil drops to $43 a barrel. Hmmmm..????? After all the many president assasinated, why wasnt Bush???.....country was running perfectly fine without a president....then George Washington steps in and ruins it.