The Greatest Minds of ATS! A Tribute.

Something occured on ATS which got relatively no attention what so ever. There once was a band of ATS'ers that united in the belief that the US economy was contracting, leading to Recession. Absurd! That is what most would say. Eventually the Economic geeks of ATS demanded their own forum, and we got it. Just in time, as the US and Global economies took a turn for the worst.

I want to take a trip back in time and bring forth quotes as far back as the official date the US Now declares that have been in a recession -- December 2007.

December 2007 Mybigunit

Reason 1 in the past 10 wages for the top 3% has gone up close to 20% while the other 97% wages have gone stagnant. I feel thats off because the people on capital hill have voted for wage increases 7 times since then. Voted for one minimum wage increase. Hmmm.

Reason 2 energy prices have soared over the past 10 years. Gas, Oil, Natural Gas, Electricity...and so on and so forth. I think it was 10 years ago i was paying .89 a gallon for gas now Im at 3.25.....its odd cause yet without this minimum wage increase people would have to work an hour just to pay one gallon of gas.

Reason 3 the dollar is tanking and it is only going to get worse. Especially now that China (Our great friend in the east..NOT!!) has come out and said they will be dumping our currency...we all knew this was coming. I dont think I need to explain what a weak dollar does as far as the negatives if you need me to let me know...but I will say on the flip side it does help exports but overall a weak dollar is not good for the economy.

Reason 4 Food and housing prices have soared Im not going to go into to much details on this but hopefully with this crappy housing situation we are in now we will see some nice corrections on the housing prices.

Reason 5 alot of our industry jobs are being sent over to china and alot of our customer service jobs are being sent over to India. This causes alot of good paying jobs to go somewhere else. Most of the big corporations do this I dont need to list names but Im sure if you have looked on a toybox you will see where it is made or if you have called for customer service you have got John Smith with an Indian accent.

Reason 6 The credit crunch is for real. I just filed for a line of credit for my business we are opening another location and was denied. I have a credit score of close to 800 and very little debt so if they arent approving me who the hell are they approving for loans and loans are what small businesses need to grow.

I swear, he doesn't have a PHD in economics, couldn't be more spot on.

reply to post by Rockpuck

The Federal government, and more importantly the Federal Reserve cannot exactly fake numbers.. but they CAN and HAVE held the stock markets propped up with buy out systems, stocks drop, Fed picks them up so as the market is not shocked. The other aspect of this is in the past 8 years after the dot com bust and 9/11 interest rates where so obscenely low that banks and loaners over used and over loaned. All of this has lead to a high inflation .. and while the Federal Reserve would indicate that inflation is "lower then average" taking into account that the US Dollar has dropped almost 25% since 2001 alone should speak volumes. So while they cannot exactly fake numbers, they can manipulate it easily, and they do.

7/27/2008 Cpdaman

Realists who see this, get Zero credit when they are right, and for warning people they get yelled at for calling this to attention ahead of time. (i.e you said this last month). Some can see the big picture and the "next phase coming" but they CAN'T predict how LONG the Spin and knowingly reckless attempts to prop the markets will last! Call them doom and gloomers, call them conspiracy theorists, call them what ever you like, because human nature lets this help you DISMISS them and sleep better.

We all secretly think CP is a genius.

7/28/2008 Solo1

not only will wall street Banks crumble but the stock markets will nose dive big time again. Hose prices will lose another 25% Businesses will close,layoffs in the magnitude never seen in America will happen and there is no bailout possible
the truth is that America is headed for deep recession at the minimum and depression is more likely than a recession.

6/26/2008 Myself, I actually lost this debate.

You will see, dire times are ahead of us. We may of thought us witty and genius for avoiding large scale political and economical confrontation, but in fact they are tied together and in reality, we only put off the inevitable, building the pressure in the hope the constituents would be complacent, max out their credit cards, and generate enough wealth to keep us afloat if by an inch..

Through paramount debts, maxing the working American's budget paying off debts and interest, servitude of a modern era, we will detail how a society driven on consumerism is about to exhaust it's only method of continue and perpetual growth.

I do know one thing, and that's when in times like this the Federal Reserve fire sells a multi billion dollar financial institution wiping billions in low risk investments off the book all in the hopes to calm the storm.. we are witnessing the desperate actions of an ancient beast. Our situation is unique, I know not where we will end up .. but if I follow my instinct and research the fraudulent policies of the Federal Government, and if I read my histories.. I can safely say that we are in store for economic hardships not seen for decades, perhaps not since 1929. Remember American's, you are not invincible, God's hands do not shield you from the World.. this is a Globalist economy, one of which has never failed.. yet.. America has intertwined it's fate entirely with the outside World. All the signs point towards recession, and subtle signs within the signs point to complete and utter catastrophe.. I have shown you the numbers are wrong, they lie, the Federal Government works to deceit at the peril of it's own people..

On this day, 12/01/2008 the Federal Government announced we are in the midst of the 3rd longest running recession of post 1929 history. Given 6 months, only 1929 will have been a longer lasting recession. The international assumed broad definition of a economic depression is a severe economic downturn of sustainable progression over an extended period of time.

Economic futures indicate this "down turn" lasting clear through 2009 with mounting unemployment. December 2007 will be the official mark of the first depression of the 21st century.

Pacificwind made this funny in 03/2008, at wich point the US had been in a recession for 4 months.

The United States is not in a recession, face reality. Read actual economic literature, and learn the definition of a recession.

READ CAREFULLY. Told you Cpdaman was a genius. 6/11/2008

Their is a distinct threat that the belief of a further detiorioration in our banks will call for a large gov't orchestrated bailout (fed can't help with solvency issues) , this belief in the further devaluation of our currency COMBINED with the rising level of confidence that the U.S consumer will 1/ not be extended the credit they need to finance their spending (thanks to the low amount of capital the banks have, as well as equity consumers have in their homes) 2. change in consumer psychology as they endure rising costs of living as well falling home equity and expectations of a slow down (although bubble vision is doing a great job w/ perception management) . 3. rising unemployment as well as under employment and out of work people's this lowers consumer spending and is self-enforcing.

Mybigunit 2/26/2008

The root of it all is our monetary system. That is what has to be fixed. Our whole system is based on debt. Debt enslaves man. We need to get off the federal reserve system and get back to gold and silver backed money and the government not a bank needs to issue the money. Every dime of our tax dollar goes to interest on money weve borrowed for our crazy spending which leads to my second point spending. We spend like mad because all we have to do is print the money. If we had to back it up we would be less likely to spend. Our monetary system when you fully understand it is the root of most of our problems.

Myself, 06/2008

The economy will progressively get worse. Stimulus money or not, the billions wasted on it have been dispersed already and did nothing to help the economy (except walmart). Major corporations are already implementing and preparing contingency plans in the case of continued weakening consumer confidence. The Housing market will continue it's decline. People's equity will begin to vanish before their eyes, and as their equity vanishes, so does their perception of self worth/wealth and thus, further weakening of consumer confidence.

I find it interesting. Where should you be getting you economic news? CNN? Fox? MSNBC? .... How about ATS? .. If you know of any past predictions like such, feel free to post them!

Recession? Depression? Get real!

Alightindarkness 7/11/2008

Roll out, doom and gloom prophets! Send the sheeple scattering for the hills! I'm counting on you guys, you can do it! The fear mongering by Monday is going to be high enough to make quite a bit. RUN SHEEP! RUN! THE END IS NIGH!

Overall, this is a blip compared to the 1970s or some of the other economic down turns.

Lowlevelmason

Really. You have just proved that it is the media's job to attempt to get people as scared as possible. Good news does not make the news. Taking isolated, one case scenarios and blowing it up to make it look like a wide spread event is the primary tactic employed by the media to make things look bad. They will interview 100 people looking for someone to say how horrible life is, and ignore the 99 who have no problems and do a 2 hour special on the one person who gives them a sob story.

Close to a revelation

Its actually quite unusual for the stock market to react negatively the day after an election - usually there is some sort of "post-election rally" regardless of who wins because the election of a new president resolves uncertainty, and markets dislike uncertainty. The market has gone up on days before with worse economic data, so this is seems to be a clear message that investors are concerned about the next 4 years.

Irrational markets? Sign of the times I say..

Truthwithin (I don't think he meant it!)

Once again, you assume that things will continue to slide when my examples from 1973, 1980, 1984, 1991 and 2000 prove otherwise. These examples show that growth did not continue to slide, just as growth will not continue to slide now. In fact, most economists agree that we will begin to see significant growth in the middle of 2009, and this minor recession will be a thing of the past. It, however, certainly does not indicated that the US is headed towards a GREAT depression any time soon.

Jaime83 8/31/08

We are not in a recession. The most recent data for the 2nd quarter show the U.S. economy on pace for a 3.3% growth rate. A recession is defined as TWO consecutive quarters of negative growth. We have not even had ONE quarter of negative growth.

Times change, as do definitions.

Seriously, for a site whose motto is "Deny Ignorance" it is truly amazing to see the level of ignorance being displayed at times.

Pluckynoonez .. lol ..

The Democratic Party takes all of the blame for liberal lies, they are Godless and treasoness. I watched Obama's acceptance speech, and he offered free kittens to all American's. He said the kittens never age and never poop and that every American would have one. Then these "raise the roof" people came out with kitten canons and started throwing them out to his fans. Irresponsible. And just more liberal lies. Kittens do poop, as they do age.

I HAVE to post this for anyone who has not seen it, from Warrenb

# CEO --Chief Embezzlement Officer.

# CFO-- Corporate Fraud Officer. # BULL MARKET -- A random market movement causing an investor to mistake himself for a financial genius.

# BEAR MARKET -- A 6 to 18 month period when the kids get no allowance, the wife gets no jewelry, and the husband gets no sex.

# VALUE INVESTING -- The art of buying low and selling lower.

# P/E RATIO -- The percentage of investors wetting their pants as the market keeps crashing.

# BROKER -- What my broker has made me.

# STANDARD & POOR -- Your life in a nutshell.

# STOCK ANALYST -- Idiot who just downgraded your stock.

# STOCK SPLIT -- When your ex-wife and her lawyer split your assets equally between themselves.

# FINANCIAL PLANNER -- A guy whose phone has been disconnected.

# MARKET CORRECTION -- The day after you buy stocks.

# CASH FLOW-- The movement your money makes as it disappears down the toilet.

# YAHOO -- What you yell after selling it to some poor sucker for $240 per share.

# WINDOWS -- What you jump out of when you're the sucker who bought Yahoo @ $240 per share.

# INSTITUTIONAL INVESTOR -- Past year investor who's now locked up in a nuthouse.

# PROFIT -- An archaic word no longer in use

Good times. Thread



Only downside.. if current predictions from the ATS Economic inclined hold true, we could be in for a very hard time, as a country and a people.

[edit on 12/1/2008 by Rockpuck]

Bravo Rockpuck - it is true that many saw this coming. Even as I debated this very topic with you, I knew my words stood upon shallow ground. We are indeed entering a period in history in which there is no map or no light of history to guide us - and I do fear that as the US Government commits 7.5 trillion to save a sinking ship that we have already lost the battle.

My only optimism lies within the hope that we can fundamentally change the way "we do business" and get back on track.

Great thread - starred and flagged.

Great thread star and flag from me. I find it ironic when I watch the Peter Schiff videos how he was called every name in the book from anti American to crazy and yet turns out to be right. I and others on here was told the same thing on many threads. This is the nice thing about video and threads. The information is stored. Im just mad that I didnt capitalize the way I could of on the ordeal. I made some money but it was lost putting it into my business to keep it afloat. Sigh... My favorite thread is

Economy in Recession? More Liberal Lies?

www.abovetopsecret.com...

You have it posted above but I thought I would show it again.

LOL funny stuff.

[edit on 1-12-2008 by mybigunit]

reply to post by TruthWithin


LOL ... if only we debated in November..

No seriously, we all know where you really stand.

reply to post by mybigunit


LOL I know, I just quoted some from Jaime.

Anyone notice ATS'ers predictions more accurate then multi millionaire fund managers on CNN? Wonder if I can put it on a resume... =).

Originally posted by Rockpuck
reply to post by mybigunit

 

LOL I know, I just quoted some from Jaime.

Anyone notice ATS'ers predictions more accurate then multi millionaire fund managers on CNN? Wonder if I can put it on a resume... =).

I get all my investment info after consulting my ATS brothers and I seriously mean that. I think the difference is its not that the people on TV arnt smart. I think its they are to hell bent on pushing an agenda instead of telling the truth. Most people here on ATS dont have an agenda to push. Its all about making money. So I DO consult my ATS brethren.

Rockpuck way to digg up the info

One area we did miss was the dollar's rebound. But i couldn't find ANYone who really called (the magnitude of this rebound) until September. And i am no genius LOL although i do enjoy picking up the WSJ, Barron's or any other piece that "enlightened successful people read" and laughing at alot of the "advice" they are giving........seems like alot of these publications like to pimp the stock market and keep people away from investing in precious metals.

Going forward with the deflationary forces being what they are and currently having the upper hand over inflationary forces (which establishment economists hate to concede because maintaining a level of inflation expectations is IMPERATIVE to foster consumer spending and bank lending) it will take a Very aggressive plan by politicians to stop foreclosures and find a way to give people incentives to stay in there houses as well as homeowners who are currently paying there mortgage on time and incentives to continue to do so. This will help cushion exaggerated price falls which often happen in market crashes when prices fall beyond the equilibrium level, although understand there is still at least another 15% down from where we are. A aggresive plan for Employment creation will also need to be enacted and likely increased beyond the numbers being talked about now.

The Federal reserve can't rely on traditional reflation measures (cutting rates/liquidity injections) to reflate the current economy (like i have been saying for over a year). There is a massive unwinding of leverage that is behind the Artificial "wealth creation" over the last several years.

Also to make matter more complicated the U.S has the petro dollar which is the world reserve currency, thus during a world wide "panic" investors seek the safe haven of the dollar. In addition to this depending on who call's the shot's in the U.S (politician's with the U.S intrests at heart) vs. Globalists financiers w/ U.s puppets at the helm) may determine wether The FED will pull out all the stops in trying to REFLATE the economy. You see the USA devaluing the currency to reflate the economy may threaten the Super power status of the USA because a crash in the dollar's value could = the end of the petro dollar and thus the world reserve currency status the dollar has. This status is the MAJOR PILLAR that supports the U.S MILITARY FINANCIAL COMPLEX which in turn allows us to be a super power (this is a taboo topic on the MSM). Also the gulf states have plans to launch a regional currency in 2010. Most economist expect the USA to devalue into oblivion over the next couple years to help meet our outstanding liability's (i.e debt) because that is how gov'ts in the past operated, although i don't know if anyone of them (minus britan 100 years ago had the world reserve currency) and thus an incentive to protect the currency. Should globalists be calling the shots i would see the U.s.a acting less in there intrests of protecting the dollar. I think the recession will deepen to a borderline depression over the next 12 months, and that in 2010 we may see a dollar collapse should OPEC switch out of the petro dollar. This would imply a deflationary recession/depression over the next year possibly turning very inflationary/ potentially hyperinflationary in 2010.

I would say a "attack is also growing more likely in the Usa in the next several months to take the people's anger away from govt's and wall street and onto bogeymen as well as allow further liberty's to be taken away or perhaps given away to the UN should the U.S.A sign the UN millenium decleration in order to pass the global poverty act that will be re-introduced IMO when congress gets back in session. These rights would not be taken away for fun, they would be taken away because in the potential new type of economy (world economy) the lower standard of living in the U.S.A and the more global nature /enforement of laws would not be possible without overriding the constitution.

and so far schiff has been half right and half wrong, his investments have been losing alot of money in particular because they anticipated the Treasury Market (gov't bonds) to be imploding now, yet the bull market there is still going strong and that is his biggest weakness


[edit on 1-12-2008 by cpdaman]

good point Rockpuck,

The truth is here amongst the weeds,

ps have a look WAY back in late early 05 when I mention deeply the mortgage bubble, where Oil would be over $75 a barrel before it went way up to over, and offered a bet to anyone that I would give the price of a Barrel of sweet crude to a charity through a Mod, no body took me up on the bet!

As well where I mention too 3 1/2 years ago that after the oil, the mortgage market, the credit cards would be next....

Cant be bothered to find it myself, we are good as you say rockpuck but I think ATS as a whole is slipping, its becoming the very thing we all despise, ive been waiting 3 days for a reply from ATS staff on a u2u AGAIN!, and again re u2u's them with "Do You read u2u's?" not read there end!!!

And it could be something totally relevant to ATS maybe even proof of ghosts in the machine...

To me it was very very important indeed..... and still is...

tskkk...

Most of the genius work is lost in the basement of the archives...

Maybe no advertising revenue not relevant anymore?

Hope not, never used to be like that.

The debate above I brilliant between you guys very well put together Bravo!
Going to look at the entire thread and go to land of nod.


Elf.

[edit on 2-12-2008 by MischeviousElf]

One area we did miss was the dollar's rebound.

I thought that..

But I am not so sure it was a "rebound" of our dollar.. so much as it was the collapse of every other major global over valued currency. The Euro couldn't survive at that exchange rate.. neither could the pound..

I think the Yen is evidence of this.. their interest rates where already rock bottom, there was little shock the economy could absorb that it had not already. Especially since they do not depend on tourism. Every currency is still falling in relation to the Yen.

So I see it as, the Dollar took the World with it.

4th Quarter earnings will hurt because of the Dollars "rebound" as well.. lowering the GDP and hurting exports.

I quite agree with your views of OPEC though .. we pushed them into a depression in a matter of months. Imagine, 2/3rds of your countries income vanishing.

Iraq will be an excellent base to control the region, however.. and OPEC does not have the unity, nor the backbone to actually push forward their agenda. Unless they decided they no longer the west jerking their economy around.

I wonder when we will declare it a depression? .. When the only other economic down turn to relate it to is the Great Depression?

There have only been 2 since 1929 that have lasted longer then 12 months. When we surpass them.. do we say .. exceedingly long recession with no end in sight? Since we have a definite start date, depression should be easy to judge. S'pose it's perception.

Quote me on this later:

US Government will be in default by the end of the 2Q 2009 due to a credit rating drop once the credit card tsunami hits.


It has already started. There are too many hands open for the handouts, and they will not end.
www.abovetopsecret.com...

www.cbpp.org...



We will start seeing the true effects of Economic Depression in '09, then it's ugliness from there.

I'll bet my net worth on it....Won't do me much good when money becomes worthless anyway.

(Update)
Cities which were expected to grow

What these cities futures look like now



[edit on 1-12-2008 by projectvxn]

[edit on 1-12-2008 by projectvxn]

[edit on 1-12-2008 by projectvxn]

Nice thread RockPuck.

There have been some good posts by other members as well. Gools and jeffwane come to mind.

In Justin Oldhams old forum, he had a good thread on Economics with some good posts from several members that were spot on in their predictions.

You folks seen it coming, and everyone kept saying you guys were the Doom and Gloom Brigade. I wonder where they are all at now.

Justin had it all laid it out real fancy like, and I had it laid out in a separate window but Firefox had a rare "episode" and it was lost. "Things to come" I believe was the name of his thread. (hope the rest doesn't come true..)

Jeffwane and Gools, as well as Infinite, Marge, Archyn (sumthin like that) and OBE1 as well as many others.

CANNOT forget Relentless, queen of the Meltdown Forum.

[edit on 12/1/2008 by Rockpuck]

reply to post by cpdaman

One area we did miss was the dollar's rebound

No you didn't, you just didn't see at the time how the dollar will be devalued. I don't think anyone has considered why the gold market is being manipulated the way it is.

The Death of the Dollar

Originally posted by projectvxn
reply to post by cpdaman

 

One area we did miss was the dollar's rebound

No you didn't, you just didn't see at the time how the dollar will be devalued. I don't think anyone has considered why the gold market is being manipulated the way it is.

The Death of the Dollar

I just read your thread and it makes you wonder with all the buying of gold on one end and then the gold suppression on the other end if there isnt an underground economic war going on between the fraud central banks and their fake fiat currency vs Russia, China, the arabs, and more? Interesting thread you have there. Ultimately if it was that the fiat wouldnt win anyways. We would have Zimbabwe money. Interesting thread.

reply to post by mybigunit


We assume we are fighting a war between us and the elites. But I don't know if that is entirely true. We are fight an economic war on a global basis the more I see the scars of deliberate influence the more I see the bigger picture, we are at war and have been for a very long time. It will be a matter of time before either we sink into 3rd world status, or go to war and sink into 3rd world status after that. My bet will be that any damage done to the US will be influenced as a revolution from within with it's roots in foreign governments that stand to benefit from a weak US. This war the elites are fighting amongst themselves is forcing us to be dragged along for the ride.

We will see a depression, we will see most likely a civil war. The US will break up after a long quagmire like Iraq except this will last some time longer. Iraq was a test bed for this sort of thing. Eventually what they have learned from Iraq will be applied to the US(At this point this name would be a former name mentioned only in memory.) when some form of government steps in to mold bricks out of the ashes and blood. And it will be global.

Originally posted by projectvxn
reply to post by cpdaman

 

One area we did miss was the dollar's rebound

No you didn't, you just didn't see at the time how the dollar will be devalued. I don't think anyone has considered why the gold market is being manipulated the way it is.

The Death of the Dollar

I did notice the total disconnect between the prices demanded for physical delivery of gold and the paper price of gold , this is likely a ploy to KEEP THE safe haven money flowing into GOV debt instead of gold. Soaring gold would destroy what confidence consumers have left in there paper currency's and gov't have enough problems right now. I also saw Iran and a few other OPEC country's buying large amounts of gold.

Also i don't see the dollar being devalued right now. TONS Of uncertainty regarding it's future but right now i don't see it.

gold is a relatively small market , we all saw what happens to realatively small markets (oil) when lots of money flows there way......they bubble up....it was UNacceptable to govt's (not just the Us and the dollar) to have there intrest rates on gov't debt soar at a time like this as well as have the public see gold as a viable and profitable safe haven. Also it would be important to note that alot of Oil and GOld's downward pressure has been attributed to hedge fund selling as well as a rising dollar. But the upward price pressure on gold over the last year can be measured by record demand for the metal and record physical delivery taken in the futures markets.

The dollar has strengthened because money in the forex markets often piles into trades.......everyone and there mother shorted the dollar in 07 and first half of 08, alot of this was leveraged shorting as well, with the unwinding of leverage alot of dollar shorts and yen shorts cashed in and the dollar bounced, not to mention the euro is tanking because the EU has tremendous exposure to the emerging market debt among other things. The dollar may also have benefited from the demand for dollars in settling CDS defaults and derivative payouts.

The money being printed right now is being gobbled up to purchase gov't debt by our own gov't . the intelligent bond speculators realize this is occuring and they purchase treasury's and then sell them to the gov't who is buying them anyway at higher prices then when the speculators bought them (lower yields).

Tremendous uncertainty in the dollar's future and yet the fraud going on in the COMEX paper price markets is a sign of desperation. OPEC can't be happy with 50 $ oil and perhaps the U.S will find a way to keep opec happy without trashing the dollar to do it (perhaps block the strait of hormuz in some sort of attack on iran) . Lots of potential problems.....this will not end well.

[edit on 1-12-2008 by cpdaman]

Rockpuck

This forum is calling it better than the bank analysts.
I rekcon we phone Obama and over him our services!
I am sure that we could do a better job than the tits running the show at the moment!
RP i vote for you as a General in the up coming revolution!

Followers and disciples of Ron Paul have been harping on this subject to no avail since early 2007.

I had the priveledge of being there to witness the collapse of the very first sub prime lender, I was in the office the day the news hit that sub prime mortgages were no longer being purchased on the secondary markets, I have seen the manufacturing jobs plucked from my community and have seen the credit crisis build first hand which we are all now being faced with.

My Big Unit has been prediciting recession before the bailouts were even proposed. Many other sharpo minds here on ATS have been discussing this as fact long before any media ever bothered to pick it up.

I have come to realize in my years here on ATS that we this board is generally 3-4 months ahead of the game on most subject matter, and in regards to economics probably more like 6 months to a year.



Edit to add: I wonder where the Trader_On_Wall_St is these days....he was a real ray of sunshine around these parts. Im sure that crow must have tasted awful when he ate it.

[edit on 12/2/08 by BlackOps719]

reply to post by Rockpuck

I wonder about this: Since you've opened the archives, did you chanced to come across a post written in 2007 saying that multiple investment bank failures would take place in 2008 as a result of the much discussed mortgage crises? See, the bank failures are largely responsible for the economic downturn, the credit squeeze doing the turning where the credit squeeze is a direct consequence of the banks afraid to lend, because bad securities aplenty poisoned the financial system, which also led to some big-shot investment banks to fail.

Most of the prediction you posted rest on other reasons then the real reason for the economic trouble and are the result of a systemic negative outlook -- they do not include the big smoking gun.