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Scientific Prediction and the Human Condition
proposing an inter-disciplinary conference, hopefully to be disseminated as an edited volume on prediction of the human condition, with focus on predicting several inter-related variables: *(2005)
•Global Shifts In Material Standard of Living, including economic, social, health, and environmental well-being, and Sustainable Development
•Spread of Free Society/Democracy
•Decline, Spread, or Altered Distribution of War
•Evolving Patterns of Genocide, Ethnic Cleansing, and other Mass Political Killings
•Proliferation of Weapons of Mass Destruction
Our interest is in global modeling
...4. Intuition may also work as input into a mathematical model for forecasting. While Jensen shows you can just forecast with area specialists' raw opinions, Bruce Bueno de Mesquita (1985) uses these intuitions as a basis of a rational choice type forecasting model.
Originally posted by tigpoppa
. I never heard of one american auto company being run by some socially awkward loony toon from MIT.
Originally posted by CaptainCaveMan
This guy, Dr. Bruce Bueno de Mosquita, says he has found a way to predict the future through mathematics.
If he could truly do that, you wouldn't be hearing from him.
As he would be so very very rich working for hedge funds making quadrillion's of dollars per year.
Perhaps he can through modeling, assess and insinuate how things might be at a later time.
He can not predict the future.
If you listen to Bruce Bueno de Mesquita, and a lot of people don’t, he’ll claim that mathematics can tell you the future. In fact, the professor says that a computer model he built and has perfected over the last 25 years can predict the outcome of virtually any international conflict, provided the basic input is accurate
Web scraping (sometimes called harvesting) generically describes any of various means to extract content from a website over HTTP for the purpose of transforming that content into another format suitable for use in another context. Those who scrape websites may wish to store the information in their own databases or manipulate the data within a spreadsheet (Often, spreadsheets are only able to contain a fraction of the data scraped). Others may utilize data extraction techniques as means of obtaining the most recent data possible, particularly when working with information subject to frequent changes. Investors analyzing stock prices, realtors researching home listings, meteorologists studying weather, or insurance salespeople following insurance prices are a few individuals who might fit this category of users of frequently updated data.
Access to certain information may also provide users with strategic advantage in business. Attorneys might wish to scrape arrest records from county courthouses in search of potential clients. Businesses that know the locations of competitors can make better decisions about where to focus further growth. Another common, but controversial use of information taken from websites is reposting scraped data to other sites.
The Web Bot Project, developed in the late 1990’s, was
created to assist in making stock market predictions.
The technology uses a system of spiders to crawl the Internet
and search for keywords, much like a search engine does.
When a keyword is located, the bot program takes a
snapshot of the text preceding and following the keyword.
This snapshot of text is sent to a central location where it is
then filtered to define meaning.
The projects concept is aimed at tapping into the “collective
unconscious” of the universe and it’s inhabitants. As well,
there is an interesting time concept involved and an unusual
concept of a “tipping point” regarding the past, current, and
future times. It goes a bit deeper than viewing what those of
us on the Internet are saying
"FUTURE MEMORY" is about people who "live" the future before it physically manifests, and remember having done so. This pre-living is so totally real and utterly involved that there is no way to tell the difference between present time and future time while the phenomenon is in progress. Sensory rich, Future Memory suggests that the future can somehow overlay the present, enabling an individual to "rehearse" or prepare in advance for what is about to happen in life. Mistakenly termed "flash forwards" by some researchers, Atwater shows how future memory differs from other modes of futuristic awareness such as clairvoyance, precognition, and deja vu.
But there is another group, unlike the seers of old, who speak of being able to live the future before it physically occurs.
Countless people have described such an episode to me, whereby what could not possibly have been known about in advance later manifested. . . exactly as Prelived. After years of investigation, I have come to call this "the future memory phenomenon" - a distinctive experience quite apart from the modes of futuristic awareness most of us are more familiar with.
To clarify what I mean, here is a brief sampling of the ways most people use to access information about the future: prophesying - to predict in advance, depends on interpretation of subtle impressions and emotional promptings; precognition - to know in advance, refers to futuristic knowledge suddenly known without prior prompting; clairvoyance - to see beyond sight, witness the future happen as if an observer to the event; clairaudience - to hear beyond sound, listen to messages about futuristic events.
In the mid-eighties, several researchers of near-death states noticed that some near-death survivors could tap into the future in what seemed to be a new way. "Flash forwards" was the phrase coined to describe this supposedly "rare" ability. Yet, in my own research of the near-death phenomenon, a research project that has spanned nearly two decades and covered over 3,000 interviews of near-death survivors (700 of them indepth), I have found the "anomaly" of remembering future events already lived typical of the aftereffects. I described this ability in both my previous books, "COMING BACK TO LIFE" and "BEYOND THE LIGHT." Concurrent with that effort, I interviewed hundreds of non-experiencers to test how widespread future memory might be. The results so amazed me, how anyone could "physically" live a future yet to manifest, that I wrote "FUTURE MEMORY: HOW THOSE WHO 'SEE THE FUTURE' SHED NEW LIGHT ON THE WORKINGS OF THE HUMAN MIND."
Originally posted by 7H3Y 4R3 C0M1N6
When I first heard about him I heard that he used elements from the past and then he puts it into his "equation." I don't think he's predicting as much as using logical outcomes and such.