The Russian Plan for the Invasion of Crimea

The autonomous republic of Crimea is a region steeped in history. It has changed hands between rulers and tribes more than most. It is currently a protected region of the Ukraine according to international borders and law.

Background of the Crimea

Russian ambitions for the Crimea are perhaps somewhat under wraps at the moment. Sergei Lavrov, the Russian foreign minister, claimed that Kouchner's statement of Russia's intent for the crimea was the result of a "sick imagination". Perhaps Lavrov used such visceral language to deflect attention away from Russia's true aim, which is total control of the Crimea akin to what occured in the autonomous georgian republics.

Russia distributing passports to Crimeans

There is perhaps one new story from the shadow CIA that chills me more than others. Stratfor is reporting that Merkel has assured the Russians that Ukraine and Georgia will never join NATO. Merkel has ostensibly cut this deal to allow Russia to dominate the former soviet republics with power plays and energy blackmail. Incidentally, Merkel probably sold out in return for guaranteed Russian gas and oil, upon which Germany is heavily reliant.

Merkel to veto Ukraine and Georgian membership in NATO

The possibility of Russian civilians in Crimea allows the Russian government to launch an invasion under the pretext of upholding its constitution, which mandates the protection of russian civilians wherever they are found.

So what sort of timescale are we looking at?

Well, in my opinion, we are close to the Russian bear attacking once again. The withdrawal of forces from the Georgian theatre is not a move of genuine disarmament and reconciliation, it is a shifting of troops towards the second battleground : The Crimea.

Russian forces withdraw

Hopefully this time the Russians will get their butts handed to them like when they invaded Finland in 1939.

reply to post by ChrisF231


Probably unlikely to occur though. Without NATO backing, Ukraine is vulnerable as hell.

Merkel has really sold them out... shame what an addiction to oil can do.

reply to post by 44soulslayer


Well, looking at the economy and the world could probably use a nice big war. I wouldn't be surprised if this happens and NATO does take a stance against them. This could be the distraction that I have been expecting.

reply to post by Karlhungis


Post-war reconciliation led to the formation of the league of nations and the UN.

Perhaps WW3 is the vehicle by which the NWO will be pushed into power?

For those of you who don't know - the vast majority of Crimean population is Russian. Crimea was never a part of Ukrainian territory untill Khruschev gifted it to the Ukrainian Socialist Republic as a gesture of goodwill in the 50's. The locals and the Soviet officials didn't make much of it back then - because the USSR was one wholesome state, and subdivisions of republics were not as important.

That being said, Crimea historically belonged to Russia, after Russia beat the Ottoman Turks. There are absolutely no historical ties between Crimea and Ukraine until 1954. That is why many local Russians who live in Crimea choose to see themselves as Russians, and not Ukrainians.

Based on the demographics of the population and history, Crimea has a right for autonomy, and possibly independence from Ukraine. About 95% of the population there is strongly opposed to pro-Western President Yuschenko, and strongly opposed to becoming part of NATO.


But there will no war there, and Russia will not get involved under any circumstances. The worst possible outcome, is that Crimea may declare independence if Ukraine decides to join NATO - but Ukraine's path to NATO is highly unlikely now that Yuschenko's party is disintegrated. So there will be no violance or any territorial redistribution in Crimea.

How do I know this? I am from Crimea. I visit it several times each year, and I know the local politics fairly thoroughly.

Crimea already has extensive autonomy within Ukraine. As long as there is no NATO around, the local population is satisfied. There is currently no reason for it to pursue independence.

As for Russia waging a war against Ukraine - not in your wildest dreams. It will not happen. This may be difficult for a Westerner to understand, but Russia and Ukraine go back a long time in history. Despite differences, they will not be involved in a war against each other. This is like US waging a war against Canada. It will not happen. No one is interested in this to happen.

Originally posted by 44soulslayer
It has changed hands between rulers and tribes more than most.

But it was never part of Ukraine untill 1954. Many dispute that Khruschev giving it to Ukraine was actually illegal under international law.

Originally posted by 44soulslayer
Russian ambitions for the Crimea

What ambitions would that be?

Originally posted by 44soulslayer
Sergei Lavrov, the Russian foreign minister, claimed that Kouchner's statement of Russia's intent for the crimea was the result of a "sick imagination".

And he is 100% correct. You would know what Lavrov meant only if you were Russian or Ukrainian - outsiders don't understand this.

Originally posted by 44soulslayer
Russia's true aim, which is total control of the Crimea

And what do you base that statement on? Any proof or evidence?

Originally posted by 44soulslayer
akin to what occured in the autonomous georgian republics.

What happened in South Ossetia, happened because a trigger-happy nutcase Saakashvilli attacked civilians in a UN-protected zone. There is no threat of this taking place in Ukraine.

Originally posted by 44soulslayer
Merkel has assured the Russians that Ukraine and Georgia will never join NATO.

All Merkel cares about is good old oil and gas. She doesn't give a crap about either Georgia or Ukraine, but she does care about Germany's energy deal with Russia. She is taking precendence of what is best for Germany - and why shouldn't she?

And Ukraine won't join NATO. Not because of Merkel, but because no one in Ukraine except Yuschenko wants it. And Yuschenko's party just disintegrated, while he is left with support of only about 7% of the population.

Originally posted by 44soulslayer
Merkel has ostensibly cut this deal to allow Russia to dominate the former soviet republics

Why do you think Russia is looking to dominate former Soviet republics? Any proof to back up that claim?

Originally posted by 44soulslayer
The possibility of Russian civilians in Crimea allows the Russian government to launch an invasion under the pretext of upholding its constitution, which mandates the protection of russian civilians wherever they are found.

Only if those Russians are in imminent danger of harm, from the Ukrainian government. Ukrainian government is not reckless so as to ever endanger Crimeans. Again - no one in Russia or Ukraine wishes the two to fight each other. No one. And no one in Crimea wants any violance.

Originally posted by 44soulslayer
So what sort of timescale are we looking at?

There is no timescale, and nothing will happen. Yuschenko is on his way out. He will be replaced by either Timoshenko or Yanukovich. Neither of them wants Ukraine to join NATO, nor does the Ukrainian Parliament. So Ukraine will not join NATO. Russia will improve relations with Ukraine. Crimea will retain its autonomy within Ukraine.

Originally posted by 44soulslayer
Well, in my opinion, we are close to the Russian bear attacking once again.

We are just as close to Russia attacking Ukraine, as we are to US attacking Canada.

What say you about the chances of US attack on Canada? US has demonstrated significant aggression in building its empire in recent decade. It started the war in Iraq and Afghanistan, and is now eyeing Iran and Syria. I'd say we are close to the US emperialists attacking once again.

Originally posted by 44soulslayer
The withdrawal of forces from the Georgian theatre is not a move of genuine disarmament and reconciliation, it is a shifting of troops towards the second battleground : The Crimea.

Russian army numbers in hundreds of thousands. At the peak of the South Ossetian conflict, Russian troops in Georgia numbered less than 5,000. Why would Russia need to withdraw a few thousand (by September down to less that a thousand) troops in Georgia, if its has an army of 400,000? That makes absolutely no sense.


I am sorry - but you are wrong regard Russian attack on Ukraine. It will not happen. There are countless reasons why it won't happen - economic, cultural, social, political, military, common sense. To say otherwise, would be to show that you know absolutely nothing about Russian-Ukrainian relations, and about what is happening in Crimea.

If you didn't notice - Ukraine is rapidly improving relations with Russia in recent months. Timoshenko and Yanukovich - who have a combined support of 75% of the population, are both leaning towards Russia.

[edit on 8-10-2008 by maloy]

Originally posted by 44soulslayer
Without NATO backing, Ukraine is vulnerable as hell.

What makes you think Ukrainians want to be part of NATO? About 65% are strongly against the membership, and another 15% are passively opposed to it. Yuschenko is the only politician in Ukraine that support the membership in NATO, but he is now powerless as the Parliament is made up mostly of opposition.

The only thing Ukraine is vulnerable to - is Yuschenko's moronic policies that have driven Ukraine's economy into the ground. That is why he is getting replaced. No one wants him anymore.

Originally posted by ChrisF231
Hopefully this time the Russians will get their butts handed to them like when they invaded Finland in 1939.

Tell me - where exactly do you draw the parallel? That was Soviet Union, fueled by communist-Leninist idealogy, lead by a Georgian madman, and caught-up in the imperialistic frenzy of the coming World War. This is Russia, with a capitalist centrist government, lead by a group of businessmen.

What does it have to do with the Winter War? Why not bring up Napoleon, or the Ottoman Wars, or the Mongol Hordes maybe?

Thanks for the Russian perspective but you misunderstood my stance Maloy.

I don't want Ukraine or Georgia to join NATO. In fact I dont mind a resurgent Russia, looking to expand their satellite states. I believe that a bipolar world would help stability.

I do however think that Russia is planning on invading the Crimea, based on strategic intel reports. If the citizens of the Crimea are accepting Russian passports, then it implies that they want to be Russian.

However Ukraine's diplomats want to join NATO because it will let them effectively hold their borders. The people may not want to, but the diplomats definitely do.

Originally posted by 44soulslayer
I don't want Ukraine or Georgia to join NATO.

I am not saying that you do, or that you should or should not want it. But fact of the matter is that Ukraine will not join NATO - and it's not because of Merkel

Originally posted by 44soulslayer
In fact I dont mind a resurgent Russia, looking to expand their satellite states.

Yes, but I don't believe it's looking to expand anything. Resurgent it might be, but Russia has no need for more territory. It needs to figure out how to manage its existing territory. All that Russia needs to build an empire and become a superpower is within Russia. It doesn't need satellite states or extra land.

Originally posted by 44soulslayer
I do however think that Russia is planning on invading the Crimea, based on strategic intel reports.

What intel reports?

As I said - it will not happen. Russians will never stand for it, for one thing.

First - why would Russia need to "invade" Crimea? 95% of Crimeans are Russians and support Russia. If it so wanted, Russia could just come in without any opposition.

Second - such an action by Russia would be a political/geopolitical and economic suicide. Ukraine would institute emergency provisions, and would immediately join NATO. NATO would now be on Russia's own border. Ukraine would be lost as Russia's main trading and export partner - and Russian economy would be driven into the ground. It would become internationally isolated.

There are just so many thing wrong with the notion of Russia attacking Ukraine over Crimea, that I feel stupid even speculating about it.

As I said - equate this to US invading Canada or Great Britain. It's just wrong on so many levels, that it is inconceivable.

Originally posted by 44soulslayer
If the citizens of the Crimea are accepting Russian passports, then it implies that they want to be Russian.

What that article isn't telling you - is that much of Crimea already had Russian passports to begin with. This happened back in 1991 when USSR fell apart. And these people don't "want" to be Russian, they are Russian. They just live in Ukraine, but their language, culture, ethnicity, and self-identity is Russian, whether they have Russian passports or not.

Originally posted by 44soulslayer
However Ukraine's diplomats want to join NATO because it will let them effectively hold their borders.

What diplomats would that be? Yuschenko's ambassadors? It's their job to tow his line, and they don't speak for the entire country. In fact the Ukrainian President doesn't speak for the entire country. Constitutionally the Ukrainian Parliament has more power than the president. 85% of the Parliament is opposed to NATO membership. That's what counts the most.

Originally posted by 44soulslayer
The people may not want to, but the diplomats definitely do.

Diplomats don't make decisions - they relay decisions of others, in particular the President. And if the President doesn't have Parliament's support, the diplomats' words are useless. The Parliament holds the key, and the Parliament has already made a decision to put off NATO membership indefinitely.

[edit on 8-10-2008 by maloy]