Humans to go extinct by 2042?

This is interesting.

Discover Magazine

The Global Extinction Awareness System, a supercomputer that accurately predicted the extinction of red squirrels several years ago, has run the numbers for our own species through the computer, and our odds of survival aren't good. According to GEAS, Homo sapiens may go extinct by the year 2042.

You all have the opportunity to participate in the study. Apparently, you get to help devise solutions to pre-set problems. The program uses "crowdsources" or tapping into the collective knowledge base to predict the future.


www.superstructgame.org...

This game begins on October 6, 2008. Bookmark it and go play. ATS has a higher IQ on average than a lot of websites, and it would be interesting to see if we could not push the date for our extinction into the future a tad.

[edit on 2-10-2008 by Illusionsaregrander]


Mod Edit: Fixed link


[edit on 2/10/2008 by Badge01]

Humans are not perfect, we created computers, computers are not perfect.

I give us between 1,000 to 5,000 years to be basically gone. Just a wink of an eye in geological/biological time, really. Not because of anything like the environment collapsing, though. There will still be pockets of people survive pretty much anything, including collapse of major ecosystems and a good-sized asteroid strike. We're good at adapting.

No, we'll be gone because of our cleverness and our successes. Our ability to create intelligent, self-replicating machines, along with our ability to manipulate our own genetics, will effectively put homo sapiens sapiens out of business in a relatively short time.

Are red squirells actually extinct?

I'm pretty sure there are a good few of them not too far from me.

If this is the case...I see a flaw

edit to add...

yep - thought I'd seen some red ones recently...

Red Squirells Live

[edit on 2-10-2008 by machinegun_go_go]

It's a warm September morning in the year 2019, and you snap on NPR's Morning Edition to catch a few minutes of the news before biking off to work. But an older and wiser Steve Inskeep has grim news for you today...

I think that humans going extinct by 2042 is the premise of the game, not an actual prediction reflected by reality. It is highly unlikely that we would be extinct so soon.

It would be a good idea to add that clarification (before people wet themselves)!

I think part of the problem is people are relying too much on computers in just about every aspect of their lives instead of using the brain and thinking processes that we have been given since the day of our birth.

A computer only processes what is put into it. So..its the old saying once again....Garbage in...Garbage out.

Cheers!!!!

Lots of red squirrels here. Obviously not extinct.

Fail.

Originally posted by machinegun_go_go
Are red squirells actually extinct?

No, if anything number are increasing.

As for humans becoming extinct by 2042 - it's pretty much impossible unless we suddenly fall into a black hole or something!

Actually, it seems as if he is trying to devise a program that DOES predict extinction. The "game" part seems to be how he is tapping into the "crowd" or the collective body of knowledge.

It does seem that the "extinction of the red squirrel" is a premature claim, and should be qualified to demonstrate they are talking about a specific type of red squirrel. Though it does not look like the red squirrel should be called "extinct" just now, it is on the brink of extinction. (It appears they are talking about red squirrel indigenous to the UK.)

ecoworldly.com...


However the "game" (the method they are using to collect information) and the underlying principle of being able to draw from the wisdom of the masses is very interesting.

Even if he is way wrong on the date by which a species is predicted to go extinct, I think it would still be fun to be part of the experiment and see if that changes the date for our extinction according to his computations.

[edit on 2-10-2008 by Illusionsaregrander]

[edit on 2-10-2008 by Illusionsaregrander]

Fortunately, it is only a game.

Illusionsaregrander, I really don't think this belongs in the Fragile Earth forum.

reply to post by Siblin


I wasnt sure exactly where to put it. It didnt seem to fit the global meltdown, and this program is about predicting extinction, and it is a serious attempt on the author of the programs part to do so.


The game part is how they gather the data for the serious work of making the prediction, so it isnt the point of the whole experiment. One should not confuse the "game" portion of it, with the attempt to use the data to make accurate predictions about the extinction of species.

I think the experiment itself, trying to design a program to predict extinction DOES have relevance to the fragile Earth, though if any moderator thinks otherwise they are free to move it.

reply to post by Illusionsaregrander


wait red squirrels are extinct? They are rare in the UK, but in most other habitats they are fine. It just said they could be extinct in the UK in about 10 years possibly. I thought they were 'threatened' not even endangered.

awwwwww, see? they're still around!




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[edit on 2/10/2008 by Badge01]

I suppose when there is nothing else better to do, it can be an amusing and fun activity gathering data to input into a number crunching algorithym to make a prediction.

I wouldnt hold my breath on the result tho.

As I said, the machine processes what is put into it. Faulty input, faulty output. Correct input, correct output.

If the final number changes radically from one experiment to another in short durations between experiments, more likely the data is flawed as is the result.

However if it remains consistant no matter the variance of input data, then chances are quite good the result could be valid and considered to be accurate.

Cheers!!!!

Superstruct is an Alternate Reality Game (ARG). Jane McGonigal from the Institute for the Future is one of the main developers of the game. She also ran a ARG titled World Without Oil about 2 yrs ago. I was heavily involved in that game and it was quite interesting. Even prophetic when gas prices got to $4-5 average.

In an ARG, a scenario is set and you "pretend" to live in said scenario, but the idea is to immerse yourself into the virtual reality. I believe that the entire premise of this game is to see if the human collective can affect a positive, workable change to not become extinct.

In Jane's games, she hopes that people will take from the game ideas to incorporate into their real lives to make the world a better place.

reply to post by newagent89


The thread is not really about the squirrels, the squirrels were used by the author of the article as an example of the program making an accurate prediction. Though admittedly, they should have been completely extinct before the author said the word extinct, not on the brink of extinction. As that particular type of red squirrel appears to be. Regardless of the fact that there are other "red squirrels" elsewhere in the world.

The thread is about the program itself, which is being devised to attempt to predict the extinction of species, and the "game" that they have devised to collect data used to make that prediction.

I am going to send a letter to the editor of Discover magazine and point out that trumpeting the extinction of the red squirrel was premature, lol, as it has so clearly been pointed out here.

reply to post by Illusionsaregrander


I surmised that, yet I saw this as a great opportunity for an enormous picture of a red squirrel.

Originally posted by redhatty
She also ran a ARG titled World Without Oil about 2 yrs ago. I was heavily involved in that game and it was quite interesting. Even prophetic when gas prices got to $4-5 average.

Thats pretty interesting that it got so close to the price of gas.

I am going to have to look into that scenario, I hadnt heard anything about ARGs before this one about extinction.

reply to post by Illusionsaregrander


I'm sure that they're aware of the fact that red squirrels still exist. The so-called prediction of their demise is part of the game's storyline. It didn't happen in real life.

It's a warm September morning in the year 2019, and you snap on NPR's Morning Edition to catch a few minutes of the news before biking off to work. But an older and wiser Steve Inskeep has grim news for you today. The Global Extinction Awareness System, a supercomputer that accurately predicted the extinction of red squirrels several years ago, has run the numbers for our own species through the computer, and our odds of survival aren't good. According to GEAS, Homo sapiens may go extinct by the year 2042.

That's the scenario that greets players in the forthcoming online game Superstruct, which is being run by the think tank Institute for the Future. Beginning on September 22nd, players will be invited to plunge into the troubled world of 2019,

all it takes is a global catastrophe to set off a chain of bad events like chemical storehouses breaking open thanks to severe earth tremors or volcanic activity coupled with long lasting effects of that..the sun could diminish leaving us in the cold and eventual mass dying. This is why I like to think the smart people will stop wondering, start acting and make technology that will allow us to as large groups safely float into space and move quickly, and provide systems that allow remote resource gathering.

Unfortunately i feel humanity is too divided, and set against itself to even want to survive, most of the worlds inhabitants are beasts and violent, ignorant and lost.