What will the US look like in 4 years?

In light of all of the economic turmoil going on right now, I am curious what other members think that the US will look like in 4 years (the next election)?

Do you think that things will have rebounded by then?
Do you think that things will have rebounded before then?
Do you think that we will be in the middle of another great depression?
Will the US even exist or will we be the NAU?
Will we still be trading in dollars?

I am just curious. I was trying to come up with a 5 year plan with my wife over the weekend and I honestly couldn't say with any conviction where I thought the country would be in 5 years.

I don't expect things to rebound. I think things will look a lot more like a depression than a recession. I think there will be massive unemployment and other terrible problems. I think we are in for a bad ride.

We are screwed.

Meaning bye bye to the credit system, it's going to be a complete depression.

Everything will be paid with pure cash or possibly a barter system.

The middle class men would be waiting on the side of the street and begging for money to feed their families.

Crime rates will go up big time.

Most people will be unemployed or paid dirt cheap because the barely surviving companies can get away with it.

It is only when we hit rock bottom that things can improve because life can't get any worst at that point than up.

[edit on 30-9-2008 by amfirst]

[edit on 30-9-2008 by amfirst]

reply to post by amfirst


Considering that WWII got us out of the last depression, what do you think will get us out of the next one? Does the fact that we are already overextended (financially) with the wars we are fighting now change your opinion at all?

IDK, but I don't wanna be around when (snip) hits the fan. I have more pride than to be a hobo. U can catch me in Canada.

The next WW will be the end of 80% of life on earth. Maybe we can rebuild a more civilized world. Hopefully, I can dig a hole deep enough to be able to last until that point.

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[edit on 30-9-2008 by asala]

Have you read grapes of wrath? It'll be like that except with more police with non lethal weapons. Or it might look like the civil war except with semi automatic weapons. Whatever it looks like, I'm sure it's going to be different. Let's try to make the best of it.

I've practiced going without food for a week, I'm riding my bike 20 miles a week, and I've learned to grow food.

Self sufficiency may be the mark of this depression, that's what I'd like to see.

So both of you honestly think that in 4 years we will be in a "grapes of wrath" type of depression? Not just giving a worst case scenario, but you honestly think that is what is going to happen?

Well that's hard to tell. I'm to young to have experienced anything other than the recession during the 1990's. It seems to me that the dollar is being devalued drastically and that bank failures are occurring at a rate unprecedented in recent history.

One top of that, a vast portion of U.S. jobs are in the service industry, these jobs are very insecure during times of economic peril. Hundreds of Starbucks have already closed their doors. I can see this happening throughout the service sector starting with those that provide luxury goods and services.

reply to post by wingman77


Yeah, Hooters went out of business here in the Northwest as well. HOOTERS! You know times are bad when a business that is founded on alcohol and scantily clad women can't make it.

Thankfully, I work in a manufacturing job for a top company in the tech field. HOPEFULLY my job is at least somewhat safe.

I still don't know if we will see a full blown depression but I certainly see how it could happen. It still torques me a little bit that our current administration refused to admit any possible economic problems until this week. Complete denial about the recession, yet OUT OF THE BLUE we are facing a depression....

Life in the USA in four years? In the event of a complete Depression:

Most of the criminals are dead now, riots a thing of the past because they destroyed everything they really needed to survive. Lots of them starved out a couple years back cause they thought that someone else would bring in the food and water again and rebuild their neighborhoods. those that lived tried to steal from everyone else, they killed and got killed Funny thing that, you get used to handouts and you ignore the wise words, "Learn to produce it yourself" you wind up as useless as a cell phone without a Tower, ha! You can always play Star Trek with it.

Airs a bit clearer now and some of the distribution systems are back online. We all get by on about 2000 calories a day, meat is a memory for many, just as fish is fondly remembered, I am getting tired of chicken. Well with the Cracker coming online soon we may be able to produce some local fuels to run some more of the equipment around here, would be nice as the beach folks said if we can supply fuel they can get a real fishing boat into the water, but it is all about infrastructure now. Oh yeah, wells finished, we hit petroleum after a year of slow drilling, fuel shortages and other problems. We run a truck north to the valley to get trade foods and goods, they said they might have real meat soon cause they made a deal to grow grains for another community farther north. I gotta remember to get a refrigerator truck running again, hope it works out.

The fieldss produce well enough as long as we follow the rule, three to grow two to fallow. We produce citrus, nuts and most vegetables here, and we have a well dug into the local river, it's subsurface but it collects pretty much all the local rainfall and from in back of the mountains. We damed up the other rivers too, waters a lot cleaner now without all the human trash in it. Lots of clear space now too, fires destroyed many of the subdivisions, so we learned to break up the remaining slabs and plant on the lots. We had water in the pipes for a little bit, but someone thought it would be funny to blow the auqueduct pump house, that's what the scouts said. Someday we'll get to that project and use the water tanks and reservoirs again, won't need much to irrigate.

We were lucky in our bug-out choice. Most neighbors are/were big city cops and firemen, lots of other professions too, many are now working the fields and providing security, checking on the wanderers, getting them fed if they're okay, moving them along if they may be trouble. Medicine took a step back too, we can operate the clinic a couple days a week now with the generators, but thats a fuel sink, just lilke the machine shops and other light industry we have left. Docs do the best they can.

We used to be millions here, now we estimate all the little communities we know about number maybe a few hundred thousand. Some of them specialize in things, like Wilmington, they have a surviving refinery there and if they get crude they produce fuels and chemicals, some people help by running trucks and keeping the railroad running, always nice to see a few fuels cars roll into the area. Things are looking up.

oh yeah,

Have a nice day.

It actually depends on if the government passes this bailout bill or not. It's called P.P.S.L ( Private Profits Social Loses ) and is a socialist dictatorship of the government controlling the free market. Things will be fine as long as the citizens keep a close eye on our government and keep them out of the free market and wall street. We know we got a voice so let it be heard at every moment it's needed. I believe we'll be just fine and strong as ever in four years. Just my opinion.

In 4 years we'll be long past this recession and riding an upswing on the back of some newer technology/industry... most likely a biotech or nanotech boom. The banks will have already started to forget any small lesson they were hoped to have learned through this and we'll have started to see a return to at least medium risk loan practices. I doubt it will be easy for those who are pegged as "high risk" to get loans from banks, although I'm sure by then there will be a special government program to back any high risk loan to the disadvantaged, complete with a clause that allows the fed to agressively persue defaulters in the same way they currently go after student loan defaulters (automatic tax refund with holding, wage garnishment, etc).

New home construction might be just starting to make strides into positive ground again, but many of the contractors & construction firms which were built upon the housing boom of the late 90's, early 00s, will have either transitioned to eco-business infrastructure or will have dropped out of the industry altogether.

The federal debt will be over $20 Trillion and we'll still have both sides demanding ballanced budgets while siphoning money off to auxilary pet causes like there's no tomorrow. Cold War II will be in full swing by that time, with Russia, Iran, North Korea, Pakistan, and China on one side along with numerous smaller nations and the US, EU, India, and Australia on the other. We very likely will have seen 2 additional wars, one being Israel vs Iran and the other being the United States vs Pakistan, with India quickly stepping in after it begins and us backing out of it almost as swiftly.

The nation will be gearing up for a hotly contested election with either Hillary Clinton trying to unseat Obama as an independant or Sarah Palin as a Democrat.

The Denver Broncos will be defending their second straight Super Bowl title and trying to go for the three-peat with 2 time defending league MVP Jay Cutler. (OK, who says ATS pipe dreams always have to involve something bad? :p)

It may resemble the 1991 Russia.

the proposed $700bn fund to grease the credit industry is, imho, actually fortifying the 'Oligarch' structure in America.

the same type of thugs that Putin finally threw out of Russia after a decade of those oligarchs running amok, and robbing their nation..

[edit on 30-9-2008 by St Udio]

in 4 years, i think we will either see a revolution, or a complete and total corrupt government with marshal law and the whole 9 yards. i also think we will see a new currency regardless, not to sound like an NWO fanatic, but thats just my thoughts.

reply to post by Karlhungis


WW2 didn't get us out of the Great Depression. New Deal policies did that.

What WW2 did was remove our competitors in the global market. Germany? Utterly smashed, then occupied. France? Torn apart by the Germans. Great Britain? Recovering from massive losses. Russia? Strong but uninvolved in the global market. China? Ripped up by Japan and facing a civil war. Japan? Smashed and occupied. The United States? largely untouched.

The soldiers came back to find their wives and daughters had been filling up bank accounts, and they themselves had the GI bill. American contractors went out all over the place to help rebuild the other nations in WW2, American business opened franchises there... Basically, our "golden age" in the late 40's to the late 50's was because we were sucking money out of other nations who used to be our competitors.

In the scheme of things, 4 years isn't that long. I don't predict it will be all that different. Anything can happen, but these are some things that I feel somewhat comfortable predicting:

We may still have a struggling economy but I think by then it will be on its way to recovery. There won't yet be an NAU per se, but we'll see pieces of its puzzle starting to be implemented - Perhaps construction on the NAU freeway system or at least talk of it. RealID may be here, assuming there aren't enough "rebellious" states to oppose it - They will then start a push to get it adopted in Canada and Mexico. There will be more jobs in industry (created by the government), and we'll see more jobs being re-in-sourced (a byproduct of an incentive to large companies.)

The TSA will no longer spot-check people at "random". Advances in scanning systems will negate the need for it. They are already testing technology that can see through clothing and determine mal-intent from biometric readings.

Nasa will have developed or begun developing a new orbiter after the retirement of the shuttle. The Hubble will have finally been retired due to the maintenance costs surpassing the perceived benefit. Due to lack of adequate funding and the little funds they do have being spent on the new orbiter, there won't be a replacement space telescope for some time.

Quad-core cpu's in desktops will be the norm with 8-core cpu's being the upper mid-range - pushing 5ghz. Raytracing GPU's will have made an appearance in the market, deprecating the old polygon/vertex engines. Newer CPU's will have the new graphics architecture integrated or will at least share the load with the GPU (again multiple cores will be normal and there's plenty of power there to help with the rendering.) 32-bit OS's will be an aging relic and 8GB of ram, 2-4TB hard drives, etc will be commonplace. We will finally start to see the decline of DVD - Blu-ray media will begin use in the software industry.

ATS will still be here. There will be an increase of apocalypse-related threads due to the anticipated cataclysm related to 2012. At its passing, many will have sworn off ever reading another doomsday post. Others will hold on hope that some catastrophe will end their miserable existence, remaining confident that "it's still coming" due to some error in calculation.

I dunno about the USA in general, but, I can tell you what I think Flying will look like.

First - all planes will be government run and owned.
No more commercial airlines - you know - the gas problem and all - regulations - terrorism - global warming - whatever the excuse is that’s needed - you’ll be flying the *friendly Skies* thanks to Uncle Sam.

Oh the massive *mall type* atmosphere and shops - sure they’ll still be there.

But that’s all left behind after passing into the *pre-boarding* area.

This area will contain Individual bathroom stall type cubicles where you strip and change into government issue *jumpers.*
The guards are there for your safety.
The video surveillance cameras too.

The things you wore to the airport you’ll place in a receptacle of some kind where they will be shrink wrapped and held for you until you reach your destination and pass security on the other end.

You’ll be given an *on board* necessity package including toiletries for the flight.
One small clear plastic bag will be allowed - may contain reading material, etc.
The use of Ipods, computers, cell phones. Nope.

Did I forget to say this is for economy class?

Business/First class will have their own set of rules - including none of the above.

These Fliers it's posh from the word go.
No government issue jumpers or toiletries.
Only the best of the best for those who fly Government Airlines.
Of course they will be chipped a/o card carrying *Friendly Fliers* who've passed all background checks, physical vetting, but most important ---> they'll have the bucks.

Ok so maybe not in the next 4 years...but sooner than you may think...



...taps...

OK, I don't believe the deep depression scenario and sure I don't believe the "we'll ride a new wave of technology" nonsense. The 8 years of Bushism failed to create a robust corps of engineers which would be needed for that. On the contrary, outsourcing ran amock. Not too much potential there.

I'm all but certain we are entering a period of stagnation. Economy will sink a little, and so will real wages. People will cut on non-essential stuff, but that's not the end of the world since this will be mainly a Chinese problem (since we dont't manufacture jack these days). Yes, we'll use computers, cellphones and TVs bought in 06-07. We'll drive older cars and won't drive a lot at that -- gas will be expensive.

Unfortunately, America will be losing its status as the world's science lab. Funding for science has already been shrinking, and the tragic trend will accelerate.

All in all, it won't be as much fun as it used to be. We'll get by, but in real terms we'll be poorer.

Okay, four years from now.

President Obama is facing down a newly organized Republican party headed by their nominee, Newt Gingrich with Jeb Bush as VP. The Republican ticket is considered a long shot by most even this late in the game, but it's been a shot in the arm for the party, well-run and sticking to the issues. Many seats in the House and Senate are expected to swing to the Republicans, reminiscent of the Gingrich revolution in '94.

While still largely dependant on petro-energy, Americans are more and more able to tap into the solar grid that's expected to be finished nationwide by 2022. Las Vegas plans to be totally non-carbon electric by 2013.

Due to rising food prices and concern over GM foods, many people have found some way to garden. Most homeowner societies and neighborhood groups now allow residents to grow vegetables in both front and back yards, though livestock are still banned, besides rabbits and chickens in some semi-rural communities. Heirloom vegetables, once a fading relic of America's food past, made a resurgent comeback. Many people still engage in traditional "western" style gardening, managing two small plots and alternating which gets uses, but those who are pressed for space have adopted ancient American methods of growing corps such as corn, beans, and squash together on one plot year after eyar, to good effect.

A black mark on Presidentt Obama's record was the short-lived war with Pakistan. For the first time since the end of the Iron Eagle series, Americans could turn on their television to watch an air war in action. Casualties were low, but tensions were high, as three nuclear powers shot at each other. The war lasted four months and ended with a cease-fire. Even those Americans most favorable to Obama call the exercise pointless, and it's a strong talking pint in the Gingrich / Bush campaign. India and Pakistan still face border skirmishes.

On a brighter note, relations between the United States and Iran are warming. Hard-line Iranian president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad was ousted by the public who re-elected the more moderate Mohammad Khatami. The presidents of the two nations have met both in Washington and Tehran. Though there are still concerns - particularly after the Iraqi elections turned Iraq into an Iranian territory in all but name - sabers are no longer being rattled in the Persian Gulf.

Contrary to the alarmist rhetoric of late 2008, the American banking industry did not collapse. To be sure, the banks took losses and the American people had a big scare, but thanks to the so-called Sanders Plan, a true crisis was averted. Though the Republicans opposed the plan as "socialist" the party was too disorganized after the travesty of the McCain-Palin failure to offer much opposition. As the nation's treasury refills at no loss to the American public, many of those same Republicans are now eating their words.

Ironically, spurred by the Palin associations, the Alaskan Independence Party managed to win a fair number of seats, resulting in the long-waited amended vote. Almost unanimously, the people of Alaska re-ratified complete statehood, leaving the AIP without much of a platform for this election cycle. Taking note of this loss, secessionist parties in Hawaii, the Vermont, and Puerto Rico have all but conceded defeat. Hawai'ian secessionist parties have shifted gears towards increased native sovereignty, while the nationalist parties of Puerto Rico have done a complete one-eighty turn and advocate full statehood as a method for increasing the clout of the island. Peurto Rico is expected to become the fifty-first star in the American flag this year.

The roads are no longer dominated by massive pickups and inefficient SUV's. Instead small cars with high efficiency dominate the roadways/ Hybrid cars with more power are still on the road, but the day of the 3 MPG gas guzzler are gone - people simply can't afford the costs. Gasoline has been hovering steadily around five dollars for the past two years and isn't expected to drop anytime soon.

Those who were expecting some high-tech revolution resulting in an economic boom like the dot-coms of the 90's are disappointed. While new technologies are starting to soar, the expertise needed in the fields continues to bar most Americans from making a living in the industries. Ironically, the Bush administration is credited with one success - the ban on Embryonic stem cell research pressed scientists to explore more avenues, leading to several breakthroughs without ethical questions. Though total organ replication is still years away, therapy for cancer patients has proven rather effective, as have some treatments for mental degenerative diseases.

By and large the American public is employed in blue collar industries. Several new restaurant franchises have opened their doors regionally. In a curious cultural phenomenon reminiscent of what happened after American soldiers returned to the business world after fighting in the Pacific, Iraq veterans have brought the Middle East back with them in the form of themed restaurants and bars. It helps that in the new America of small agriculture, goat flesh and cheese are gaining popularity.

Similarly, after a wave of Afghan and Iraqi immigration to the US, together with warmed relations with Iran, many American teenagers and young adults are looking to Islam to answer their spiritual questions. Most adults consider this to be another youth fad, and are probably right.

Speaking of religion, the fundamentalist right wing has largely abandoned the Republican Party, much to the relief of most Republicans. Rather they are supporting the ironically named Constitution Party - Ironic because with the support of the fundamentalists, the Constitution Party has become a Christian Fascist party similar to the Falange parties of Lebanon and American fringe politics. However by numbers alone it's considered a viable party. Constitutionalists and Libertarians spend more time screaming at each other over the internet than actually campaigning or voting, so honestly not much has changed there in the last four years.

Environmentally, conditions continue to worsen, though not quite at the rate as in the past. Most nations have adopted a "hope for the best, but prepare for the worst" approach. The problem has generally been accepted to be tied to the ever-increasing human population, but as expected, no nation on earth seems willing to try to tackle that particular problem!

No Child Left Behind was abandoned, and the idea of merit pay for teachers was scrapped. Textbooks are still bad, but teachers are no longer tied to them by government threat. The level of education in America rises, but it isn't meteoric. Still, most American high schoolers can now find the United States on a map - even a mislabeled one.

I suspect a lot of people wearing "Don't Blame Me, I Voted 4 Obama" t-shirts..