Daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Sunday, Sept. 07

Watching the daily Rasmussen polls, we begin to see the effects of Sarah Palin and the RNC:

Sunday, September 07, 2008


The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Sunday, September 7, shows the race for the White House is tied.

In the first national polling results based entirely on interviews conducted after Sarah Palin’s acceptance speech, Barack Obama gets 46% of the vote and so does John McCain. When "leaners" are included, it’s all even at 48%.

www.rasmussenreports.com...

Some other interesting observations:

McCain earns the vote from 89% of Republicans while Obama is supported by 81% of Democrats. McCain also manages to attract 15% of Democrats while Obama gets 9% of the Republican vote. Voters not affiliated with either major party remain fairly evenly divided between the two men.

And this next may be part of "The Sarah Effect" eroding Obama's appeal to women:

McCain leads by seven points among men while Obama leads by six among women. On Tuesday, when Obama’s lead peaked, he had a fourteen point advantage among women.

will it help her cause if it gets out she supports ATS??

reply to post by jsobecky


I find those numbers pretty incredible considering where we are in the election.

Maybe it has something to do with the rating congress has been generating, can't get much lower than 9-10%, while the rating for Bush are on the rise.

The latest Gallup tracking poll has McCain/Palin leading the race by 3%, 48-45. That is quite a phenomenal turnaround. Only about a week ago, they had Obama/Biden leading 50-42, so this would represent an 11 point swing to McCain since that time. This is also the first day of polling for both Rasmussen and Gallup with the full convention effect for the Republicans. Previous to today, both included data from before McCain's speech.

It'll be interesting to see where it stands on Tuesday or Wednesday once the 'bounce' begins to stabilize.

Gallup Daily Tracking Poll

reply to post by vor78


Not quite, according to Rasmussen. That will happen tomorrow:

Tracking Poll results are based upon nightly telephone interviews and reported on a three-day rolling average basis. As a result, tomorrow (Monday) will be the first update based entirely upon interviews conducted after McCain’s speech.

www.rasmussenreports.com...

Obama is done for. The woman vote got him. There isn't much happening to give him any more bumps. The world will probably produce more friction and confrontation which is bad for Obama and good for McCain. Unless global peace breaks out for the first time in world history, Obama is screwed.

reply to post by SectionEight


Are you kidding me?
I am not voting for McCain just because he put a woman on his ticket.
Give me a break!

Originally posted by SEEWHATUDO
reply to post by SectionEight

 

Are you kidding me?
I am not voting for McCain just because he put a woman on his ticket.
Give me a break!

You might not but there was enough percentage of women who did to put him over the top for good. Unless Obama gets rid of Biden and replaces him with Hillary, he cannot win now.

reply to post by SectionEight


Over the top for good???
Is the election over? Did I miss Halloween? Crap!

Originally posted by SEEWHATUDO
reply to post by SectionEight

 

Over the top for good???
Is the election over? Did I miss Halloween? Crap!

Unless you are counting on the debates to change anything, yes the election is pretty much over. Not many undecideds to fight over at this point and the nation is polarized with diehards on each side not switching.

I predict Biden coming off arrogant and haughty towards the female opponant and cement the women vote for McCain in for good.

[edit on 7-9-2008 by SectionEight]

reply to post by jsobecky


And that would be correct. It also holds true for Gallup. Not sure what I was thinking.

In that case, it will probably make for a slightly larger post-convention bounce than I was expecting. Note also: Gallup typically polls about 2-3% better for Obama than does Rasmussen, and right now, that relationship is backwards. It'll be interesting to see how that resolves and whether McCain/Palin leap ahead in Rasmussen's polling, or fall back in Gallup's.

I suspect that by Wednesday or so, McCain/Palin will have about a 5 point lead on average. Whether it holds is anyone's guess.

The Electoral College is what matters. 270 is the magic number I believe.

Barack Obama: 238 solid / 55 leaning 293
John McCain: 174 solid / 32 leaning 206

www.realclearpolitics.com...

Another one shows these results:

Barack Obama: 301
John McCain: 224
with 13 ties.

www.electoral-vote.com...

Also there has already been a thread started for polling data. actually it's for the electoral college. It will be interesting to watch how these sites change over this week to reflect any actual bounces given that we see in the popular vote polls from today, although they are very small and may even be within the margin of error or really close so what will this do to the map?:

www.abovetopsecret.com...

It's interesting to note also, that the polling is done via telephone in most cases and that is land lines not cellular phones. Does this effect polling data based on differences in the demographics pool? Some say it under accounts for the younger vote...



[edit on 7-9-2008 by skyshow]

This is just more Dewey Defeats Truman voter manipulation attempts by leftwing journalism and polling.

en.wikipedia.org...

reply to post by skyshow


That's true, but its going to be a while before we really know what's going on in the battleground states. Look at the polling dates on RCP...the battleground state polls are mostly 2-3 weeks old and for that reason, basically useless.

The national polls may not give us a terribly precise view of the final EV, but it can give us an idea of where the momentum lies. And if they're accurate, even a 3% popular vote lead on election night is extremely likely to lead to an electoral college victory as well. So its still very relevant.



[edit on 7-9-2008 by vor78]

reply to post by SectionEight




I doubt he'll get many Hillary voters. Having a woman on his ticket will not make much difference at all. Just because she is a woman does not equal woman votes.

It takes 2 weeks for convention bounces to settle.
I believe this race will be close till the end

reply to post by jsobecky


JSOBECKY-


IF YOU DO AVERAGES AND WEIGHT ALL of the recent polls you will actually
will have

MCCAIN + 4


TO the GOP Mccain + Palin folks joy. Looks bad for OBAMA, now we can get real change.
ra
'ra

reply to post by skyshow


I think that McCain/Palin have a very real shot of winning Florida, Ohio, and Texas. This should give them the win.

USA Today and Gallup have a poll coming out tomorrow (this is not the same as Gallup's tracking poll) that has McCain/Palin up 50-46 among registered voters. That's right in line with Gallup's tracking poll, which also tallies registered voters.

However...

It also has them up 54-44 among likely voters.

This meshes well with what I've been hearing today, which is to expect a 'significant' bounce for the Republican ticket to start showing up in the next day or two. A 10 point lead would be quite a bit more than I expected.

Link

reply to post by vor78


Why do we even bother with elections? It always goes to the big oil companies and corporations who dole out the most money anyway. We haven't seen any real debates so far, and very little discussion has occured on the actual issues. It's just been big paid for add campaigns and the corporate media who cashes the campaign add checks, paroting the cult of personality rumor mill garbage. It's for the same reason that so few are in the library after classes...nobody wants to do the effort to actually learn...they take the easy way out and accept the spoon fed drivle...

"drill baby drill"...that's what they offer us? Huh? I remember when I first heard about the concept of a "dumbed down America", and back then I thought of it only theoretically, while now, I am seeing it in real time...

I'm trying to get myself used to the idea of another 4 years of Bush...McCain is more of the same...even though they have stolen the "change" theme, when you nail them to the wall and ask them questions about policy, it ain't there...it's just like the new Cyndi Lauper song...it's "the same ole' fu*#ing story". And millions who are not in favor of bush cheney will vote for him. Unbelievable. Well so is the HS drop out rate and the amount of folks under an average IQ, so I guess I shouldn't be surprised.