Venezuela vs Netherlands

Some time ago Chavez was [mostly when oil prices rise] again talking tough about taking the dutch islands of Aruba, Bonaire and curacao, while he was afraid the US would use this islands as a bridge to invade his country.
The dutch minister of defense was resolute that that would be a joke since the royal navy is much more advanced then their venezuelan counterpart. In a cheap dutch magazine there was this article about the balance between the two based on this www.strategypage.com...

I wonder how you all defense specialists think about it? and the political consequences? i personally think this man underestimates the navy and their cover for the birds, he didnt even mentioned the thales radar system wich is actually the sugar on top [specially for the zeven provincien class] chavez can only dream of..

[edit on 18-4-2007 by Foppezao]

And as a guy who lives in the country right below u on the map , i'm just saying if u ever have any problems with that Chavez dude . Give us a call and and were with ya . I bet m8 they always have underestimated the lvl of training our troops get up here in our region. So i say bring them on!!

thats good to hear!..i wonder when nato really comes into action?[or the e.u] the british did the falklands themselves, but we support the US in afghanistan with other nato allies since article 2 of the nato treaty came into play after 9/11..
obviously bush would be to trigger happy to support[although they could be usefull for refuelling our aircraft]

I can say this i worked with the dutch equal of the U.K S.A.S in iraq i can hardly see the U.K and U.S.A taking a back seat if such thing's evolved.

Dont worry about it i say we got your back.

[edit on 18-4-2007 by h3akalee]

NATO only applies to attacks in Europe and North America. That certainly excluded the Falkland Islands from being recognized as a qualifying attack under NATO. (Although the U.S. still provided logistical support to Britain).

The Carribean is generally considered to be part of North America, so an attack on the Dutch islands there might well be considered as an attack on NATO requiring all allied nations to respond, but I'm not totally sure.

In any case, I'm sure the U.S. would provide all the support the Dutch forces needed to repel the Venezuelans if not actively join the war directly.

[edit on 4/18/2007 by djohnsto77]

[edit on 4/18/2007 by djohnsto77]

Originally posted by Foppezao
thats good to hear!..i wonder when nato really comes into action?[or the e.u] the british did the falklands themselves, but we support the US in afghanistan with other nato allies since article 2 of the nato treaty came into play after 9/11..
obviously bush would be to trigger happy to support[although they could be usefull for refuelling our aircraft]

if the Netherlands ever get attacked by any country outside europe there would be a fast reaction from NATO . I guess ur forgetting that u guys hold 1 of the biggest ports of the world . Imagine what would happen around the world if Europe lost the main Import/Export port!!

I have to say, the idea of Venezuela v. the Netherlands militarily has
never crossed my mind.

I'm comfortable in syaing the Netherlands would win, as it would have
the U.S., U.K. and most likely other European countries.

Honestly I had to think for a sec which side I'd be rooting for, as I like
both countries, but I have to say I like the Netherlands more.

HELL NO!!!

I live in Aruba and I don't want no war here. Nothing like that. I don't want one single bomb let loose or one single round of ammo fired. And furthermore Chavez is not that crazy to even think he's going to attack us. I don't want that ever to happen, because my life and that of my family and friends would then be in danger.

And for what, for a situation that was caused by greedy corporate interests in past decades?? Chavez is not a disease, but a symptom of a disease.

Screw that... I don't want to even think about such a situation.

The ironic part is that our current prime minister, Nel Oduber is on good terms with Chavez. Not to say that they're friends.

[edit on 19-4-2007 by TheBandit795]

W/o help from countries like the US,UK or France, I don't think the Dutch would be able to do much about any invasion force.

The Dutch do not have any major force projection abilities and they would only be able to deploy De Zeven class frigates

These could Probably execute standoff attacks with Tomahawk IV LACMs taking out any Venezuelan Harbours/port facilities which serve as staging areas for the invasion and occupation forces. They would need near real time sat-feed for effective strikes and I guess they could buy this?

Harpoon AShCMs would serve as a primary weapon against any Venezuelan naval blockade(Lupo class frigates).

The frigates would be threatened by Mirage III carrying AM-39 Exocet AShCMs, though I think the ships have good air defence capabilities withe near future defence even against sea-skimming targets.

Now with the inclusion of the Su-30mk2 a/c, the Venezuelan AF gets a range of options for Anti-shipping from the Kh-59,Kh-35,Kh-31 and Kh-29.
I'm not sure which ones are actually being purchased by Venezuelan AF but with the Su-30Mk2 they have all the options and the real threat is obviously the supersonic Kh-31.
This a/c would pose the greatest threat to the De Zeven class frigates.

Summarizing, if the Dutch are able to get there early and get a few good shots in, then maybe they can dissuade the Venezuelans with mounting international pressure etc etc..
However if the Venezuelans are quite serious about the acquisition then they
will have more cards to play; and if the Dutch lose a Frigate then things will looking bad from them.

Will this face-off ever happen?
IMHO never, not in the current geo-political situation.
Will the US/UK help out if it happens?
hmm.. maybe the US will but whether overtly or covertly; I'm not sure..
definitely covertly with intel,sat-feed etc..

And bandit795, nobody wants war.. Not in a beautiful place like that..

mod edit: removed entire quote of previous post.

I enjoyed your detailed description well done.

Mod Edit: Quoting Etiquette – Please Review This Link.

[edit on 19-4-2007 by sanctum]

yea.. thanks..
W/o US, UK help it would be tough for the Dutch since the islands are only a couple hundred km off the Venezuelan coast.

18 kilometers.. I can see Venezuela on a clear day.

wow.. thats ridiculously close!!

Where the international border then?
9km out?
IMO from Venezuela's point of view its quite shameful to have islands just 18 km of your coastline belong to some nation thats across the Atlantic.

But thats just me!



[edit on 19-4-2007 by Daedalus3]

These islands were Dutch long before Venezuela existed. Since 1634 if I'm not mistaken.

The border is indeed about 9km out. Arubian fishermen sometimes find themselves in Venezuelan waters by mistake. And once one of my gym teachers from my old high school swam those 18km. Took him about six hours to do that.

[edit on 19-4-2007 by TheBandit795]

No body wants war.

That statement I am sure is true for most people. Now look at the past with the wars that have been fought and are being fought, then phase in the number of terror attacks. For no body wanting war there seems to be a lot it going around.
Which bring up the next point. I don't see this really happening but I did not think Argentina and the UK would go to war either. That I think is a good comparison for this situation. I agree even though the Dutch have a good Navy they would have a tough time with Venezuela being so close. But more to the point, I think you need to ask is one leader or the other crazy enough to actually try it? I did not think so with the UK Islands, and look what happened there.

Chavez is a complete authoritarian dictator. He is using the red herring of an American threat of invasion to eliminate internal dissent(i.e democratic opposition). He has concentrated executive and legislative power into his own hands. He has with the surge in oil revenues embarked on a massive military build up again implying the imminent threat of invasion instead of eleviating poverty(like he promised).

Just like every other left-wing revolutionary he has achieved power spouting ideals of equality only to turn into something worse than what he replaced. I have no doubt that it will all blow up in his face when the price of oil drops, and the people realize that he isn't going to deliver what he promised. Then in a last attempted to hold onto power he's going to do something very stupid(someone mentioned the falkands).

Then he'll get his US "invasion". Though by that time I think the people of Venezuela will be happy to see him go.

Originally posted by Foppezao
the british did the falklands themselves, [although they could be usefull for refuelling our aircraft]

FOR THE RECORD... The British did do the invasion by themselves, but, Canada and the US covertly lent them a hand.

As you stated earlier. The limitations of the Diesel -electric subs was there range, unless of course they were refueled and resupplied at sea say by the Canadian Navy (don't laugh they "apparently" did it for the British in the Falkands ) The US have Puerto Rico and a few carriers available I'm sure and there is also Panama nearby from were the US can support the Dutch for their air campaign.

Never mind the support that would be available in a military way from countless other sources.

Just to say I wouldn't countout the Dutch just yet in this scenario.

Originally posted by TheBandit795
These islands were Dutch long before Venezuela existed.

Just outa curiosity, when did the Venezuelans migrate to the Americas? I didn't know that the Europeans where the first to the island either. but i usually slept during history. Dont get me wrong im not saying they should fight over it or anything.

I wouldn't want to see one blade of grass scorched on aruban soil. Scorched grass sure but NOT a scorched BLADE of grass. I'm with you Bandit.

But if Chavez did try anything you can rest assured that that body of water between aruba and venezuela will be covered with so many US UK and French forces that the Venezuelan military wouldn't be able to set scouts on their own shores to observe their enemy.

Personly I think the dutch could probably beat the venezuelans single handedly. They don't have much force projection but I think even a few warplanes in the air would disuade any venezuelan aircraft from even attempting to take off. The ships would be taken out by the dutch navy and anybody whos left would probably get slaughtered on the beach trying to get ashore by dutch rifleman. I know this is all a streach but I'm trying to give the dutch some credit here.

One, I don't think military action will occur

Two, If it does, Want to bet Bush will be all about supporting our friend, Netherlands. This might be in the form of satellite pictures and other high tech assistance. It might be in the form of giving high tech weapons and "advisors".

There might also be NATO action as Netherlands is a member of NATO
LINK

I am sure Bush would love to "stick it " to chavez.