Update: Russian 5th Gen "to fly" by 2009: Defense Minister

Russia likely to fly fifth generation plane in 2009 - Ivanov
20:17 | 14/ 06/ 2006


ST. PETERSBURG, June 14 (RIA Novosti) - Russia's first fifth-generation plane could make its maiden flight as early as in 2009, the defense minister said Wednesday.

"We should see the first fifth-generation plane in the air in 2009," Sergei Ivanov said following a meeting with defense industry officials in Russia's second largest city.

Ivanov said the state, including the Defense Ministry, was planning to invest in manufacturing planes, helicopters and aircraft engines.

General Vladimir Mikhailov, the commander of Russia's Air Force, said in March that a fifth-generation plane, development of which should be completed in 2007, would be virtually invisible to air-defense systems.

Source:
en.rian.ru...

So Development will be completed in 2007
and what in 2009 : First maiden flight or Mass production?

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[edit on 14/6/2006 by Mirthful Me]

Prelude,
I think that means the first flight. But what I was wondering more about was with the stealth Tech. now being used by other countries we will need to have an adaquate counter measher. Which also will mean that out sealth tech will no longer be of value.

So what will come next?

Would this be the PAK-FA, then? Or is it something else?

Prelude,

If you check the next LINK-

en.rian.ru...

Below it it states that several 'experimental models' will be flying in 2007.

My guess being that they have already done some pole model work on general configurations and now wish to validate this from dynamic scan angles, ranges and/or bandwidths not perspective possible using indoor or range facilities (we use computers to do this, along with 'Air SAR' on an A-3 hack, I don't know if the Russians are that sophisticated or not).

2009 then being the year for which a 'LO from the outset' configuration will be flown with whatever structures/material modifications are necessary to bring the jet into full compliance with the X-jets baseline signature vs. the final desired one.

The real question then being whether there ARE in fact multiple configurations or if this is a one-horse-course by Sukhoi.

Given MiG has more or less ceased to exist as an independent design house and the T-50 is nothing if not a blatantly pathetic 'Raptorization' of the baseline S.37 Berkhut airframe; I have a feeling what is being spoken of is as likely to be (yet another) 'technology testbed' as a production representative prototype.

This will then become the next-best Russian 'talking point' pride plane while whoever took over from TsAGI starts to set baseline RCS fabrication and production standards for later use. Messing about with large scale composites is not for the faint of heart as little or nothing is cross-polinateable from metal industries and particularly the Russian penchant for 'drunken dwarves with really big hammers' approach to close-tolerance manufacture.

OTOH, PAK-FA is little more than a pyramid scheme run by a mafioso and his pet collective of 'Russian Business''. So we shall see.


KPl.

Originally posted by ch1466
My guess being that they have already done some pole model work on general configurations and now wish to validate this from dynamic scan angles, ranges and/or bandwidths not perspective possible using indoor or range facilities (we use computers to do this, along with 'Air SAR' on an A-3 hack, I don't know if the Russians are that sophisticated or not).

RCS calcs are done using finite element analysis, it can be done on desktop computers - easily. I could do it here by modifying virtua-lab if I wanted [and knew the equations].



They may wish to validate their models, which would require a flight test program, but they already have enough aircraft, the MiG-21 Bison, the S-47 Berkut and MiG 1.44 are all different enough to provide a good base of reference for the maths in the codes.

I'll believe when i see it. (sorry the voice of seeing one to many promises from russia in the past 10 years).

Russia has produced some interesting prototypes and there’s no doubt they have lots of smart people, but here’s the rub:

Russia has the 12th largest economy and their population is DECLINING to the tune of 700k a year. Additionally, Russia is cold and lousy place to live. When they had a wall around the place they could keep smart and ambitious people. Now they can’t.

That is not a formula for competing militarily with America.

Originally posted by Number23
Russia has produced some interesting prototypes and there’s no doubt they have lots of smart people, but here’s the rub:

Russia has the 12th largest economy and their population is DECLINING to the tune of 700k a year. Additionally, Russia is cold and lousy place to live. When they had a wall around the place they could keep smart and ambitious people. Now they can’t.

That is not a formula for competing militarily with America.

Number 23,
That is defently something that should be noted. But I dont think competing with America is something Russia should really need to plan for any more.

Originally posted by Number23
Russia has produced some interesting prototypes and there’s no doubt they have lots of smart people, but here’s the rub:

Russia has the 12th largest economy and their population is DECLINING to the tune of 700k a year. Additionally, Russia is cold and lousy place to live. When they had a wall around the place they could keep smart and ambitious people. Now they can’t.

That is not a formula for competing militarily with America.

They are also self contained when it comes to resources - consider that when taking the long term view.


The US and Europe (Europe esp) are in deep trouble, as oil and gas are going to have to be sourced from outside suppliers - of which Russia will be at the forefront, bringing plenty of wealth into their country.

The most valuable capital a country can have is human capital. Japan has very little in the way of natural resources, but what they do have is a well educated and motivated population. Sadly they to are in the midst of a demographic decline.

What good are natural resources when no one is around to a make use of them OR if you lack the manpower to protect form encroachment by foreign powers (say China)?

Do you think China will sit idle while Siberia depopulates and Russia leaves behind her mineral wealth?

I have said for a while now (those people who choose to read my stuff for some weird reason can vouch for this) the Rusky's have a stealth technology that we are just now (with UK assistance) understanding. I cant wait to see this plane !

Originally posted by Canada_EH
I'll believe when i see it. (sorry the voice of seeing one to many promises from russia in the past 10 years).

And what if they never show it to you ....I think Russia (any powerful country ) will never show thir best ....

I believe that all these 5th Gen stuff are more related to business(Russia is today ..I mean from thoisd year onwards ...Worlds No1 Arms exporter ) than Military strength

Originally posted by Number23
Russia has produced some interesting prototypes and there’s no doubt they have lots of smart people, but here’s the rub:

Russia has the 12th largest economy and their population is DECLINING to the tune of 700k a year. Additionally, Russia is cold and lousy place to live. When they had a wall around the place they could keep smart and ambitious people. Now they can’t.

That is not a formula for competing militarily with America.

"Russia has the 12th largest economy"
First of all Russian economy is not 12th largest but its 10 largest according to IMF and World bank and its 9th largest according to CIA
(according to PPP calculations which are economically more reliable than calculations via exchange rates )
en.wikipedia.org...

Secondly the GDP has been growing by approximately 7% every year since 1998 …That’s an impressive growth rate as per International standards .
In other words the economy is booming (mainly for record level oil prices )

"" population is DECLINING to the tune of 700k a year""

Its true we are facing a demographic crisis (how ever I am not convinced with the figure 700k a year….can you please enlighten me with a source?)
However I have the following arguments against your comment

1 this population decline is true for any developed country except US (which is fortunate to have a good migration rate )…And this population Decline is an issue in the upcoming G8 summit to be held in St Petersburg in July 2006 .It has been noted that in all G8 member states there has been a demographic crisis (except the US )….However as usual only Russia has been subjected to criticism by those age old Anti Russian Stereotypes.

2 This population Decline can prove Good for Russians IF the Russian Economy can maintain its present growth rate (around 7% per annum)

Fall of population along with increase in GDP means a huge increase in GDP per capita ….which means further improvement in living standards of Russians

If GDP per capita Rises then it will invite New immigrants from neighboring poor CIS countries like Turkmenistan , Uzbekistan ,Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan, Moldova, Mongolia,Georgia , Belarus , Ukraine along with Afghanistan and China

Immigration will be influenced by the following factors :
1 GDP per capita of all the countries mentioned above are presently less than half of that of Russia
en.wikipedia.org...

2 Apart from China most of the countries mentioned above have almost NO economic activity and development

3 In all the CIS countries Russian is a very popular Language …this will again favor Immigration

4 All the CIS countries and presently China has a VISA free regime with Russia …a bonus for Immigrants

And infract the process of immigration has already started ……toady Russia has the 3rd highest number of immigrants (mainly from the CIS and China)…..the number of immigrants has increased to such a extent that today in Russian cities Immigrants are the only people seen where unskilled labor is concerned (Taxi driver, construction worker, restaurant workers ) and
Political parties has started Raising concerns against Immigrants .


So Russia has a bright economic future if
1 It continues to grow its economy
2 It controls further demographic decline (else there will be no Russians in Russia but only immigrants)…..The demographic decline that we are facing today is a result of what happened 15 years ago…today our govt is taking steps to prevent it further (I can tell that for Sure being a Medical Student) …we can see the results only after 10 years


""""Russia is cold and lousy place to live""""
It seems you have never been to Russia…Russia has a cold weather only from December till March …the rest part of the year are as sunny(more beautiful in some places ) as Europe……St Petersburg has been Rated among the top ten worldwide tourist destinations by the UNESCO for its beauty, weather and white nights (24 hrs day )

Moreover if South East Asia (India , Pakistan , Bangladesh, Srilanka etc ) with her Dirty unhygienic roads and cities , above critical level pollution , hot(above 40 degrees centigrade temp ) humid climate , Highest infection rates in the world …can have the highest density of population in the world
what makes Russia [with her houses heated for free by Govt , Beautiful clean almost free of pollution cities and Sunny tourist friendly summers (April till November )] a cold and lousy place to live?



[edit on 17-6-2006 by prelude]

Russia population decline: I couldn't find my source with the 700K a year figure, but here's something from the Gardian

Russia's population has shrunk to 143 million, with the federal statistics agency announcing that the country had seen a decline of 506,400 since January.

Alcoholism, poverty, emigration and poor healthcare have caused a drop in the birth rate and life expectancy, which is now 58 for men and 72 for women.

There are now more abortions registered than live births. President Vladimir Putin has allocated funds to try to reverse the trend.

The United Nations Development Programme warned in a report released last week that by 2050 the population could be 80 million
www.guardian.co.uk...

Again I couldn't find my source the ranking of Russia's GDP but her GDP/per capita is 86th(!) see
here. BTW America is #2 behind Luxembourg.

And I found this that shows as of 2002 Russia had the 16th largest economy.

Regarding Russia climate, let's be honest, you can have either cold or colder. America by contrast has every conceivable climate, hot, cold, wet, dry, desert, tropics, mountains, plains. Whatever climate you want America has it.

[edit on 17-6-2006 by Number23]

Originally posted by Canada_EH
I'll believe when i see it. (sorry the voice of seeing one to many promises from russia in the past 10 years).

I agree with you... The Russian air-force doesn't have the money nor the recources... To me this sounds more like propaganda...

Originally posted by Number23
Russia population decline: I couldn't find my source with the 700K a year figure, but here's something from the Gardian

Russia's population has shrunk to 143 million, with the federal statistics agency announcing that the country had seen a decline of 506,400 since January.

Alcoholism, poverty, emigration and poor healthcare have caused a drop in the birth rate and life expectancy, which is now 58 for men and 72 for women.

There are now more abortions registered than live births. President Vladimir Putin has allocated funds to try to reverse the trend.

The United Nations Development Programme warned in a report released last week that by 2050 the population could be 80 million
www.guardian.co.uk...

Again I couldn't find my source the ranking of Russia's GDP but her GDP/per capita is 86th(!) see
here. BTW America is #2 behind Luxembourg.

And I found this that shows as of 2002 Russia had the 16th largest economy.

Regarding Russia climate, let's be honest, you can have either cold or colder. America by contrast has every conceivable climate, hot, cold, wet, dry, desert, tropics, mountains, plains. Whatever climate you want America has it.

[edit on 17-6-2006 by Number23]

so your post along with mine together proves the extent of economic development of Russia in 2 Years !!!!!!!!

In 3 years
Russian GDP has climbed from
16th Rank (2002) to 9th Rank (2005)....A GIANT LEAP FOR RUSSIA


As per GDP per capita IN JUST ONE YEAR
Russian GDP per capita has climbed from 86th rank (2004) to 62nd Rank (2005)...I dont know of any other country that have excelled so much

however though this is a great development for Russia it dosent need to mention that this economy dosent stand against the American Economy

We have just got 15 years to rearrange our system...you got 300 years brother ....so give us 10 more years....we will reach the west ...(well still far away from America)



"""""US in contrast has every conceivable climate, hot, cold, wet, dry, desert, tropics, mountains, plains. Whatever climate you want America has it. """

...Friend we have the same in Russia...Southern Russia has all varieties of climate...however Russians mainly live in the european Part

I share prelude's optimistic outlook for Russia's economic future. They have a large well educated labor force (especially in math & science) which global companies are starting to take advantage of. Heck even St. Petersburg has a FORD factory now, Imagine that a decade or two ago

But they need to increase foriegn investor confidence (cut down on the Red Mafia would be a good start) and get rid of some of the red tape companies have to deal with and they will take off.

The biggest problem is the population shrinking. Putin knows this and is already taking steps to help fix this problem but I personally think more then throwing money at the problem is need.ed

Say you marry and have a child with a women and then divorce her. In the US if your a guy your going to get slammed with child support pretty much 90+% percent of the time and dead beat dads are few and far between. From what I hear this is not the case in Russia and many, many single mothers receive no child support from the father of the child. Im not exactly sure how the system works though perhaps prelude can shed more light on that.


Russia can always try the US apporach, nothing like millions of illegal aliens to keep poulation growth nice and healthy. Though I woudnt advise it.


[edit on 17-6-2006 by ShadowXIX]

Originally posted by ShadowXIX
I share prelude's optimistic outlook for Russia's economic future. They have a large well educated labor force (especially in math & science) which global companies are starting to take advantage of. Heck even St. Petersburg has a FORD factory now, Imagine that a decade or two ago

But they need to increase foriegn investor confidence (cut down on the Red Mafia would be a good start) and get rid of some of the red tape companies have to deal with and they will take off.

The biggest problem is the population shrinking. Putin knows this and is already taking steps to help fix this problem but I personally think more then throwing money at the problem is need.ed

Say you marry and have a child with a women and then divorce her. In the US if your a guy your going to get slammed with child support pretty much 90+% percent of the time and dead beat dads are few and far between. From what I hear this is not the case in Russia and many, many single mothers receive no child support from the father of the child. Im not exactly sure how the system works though perhaps prelude can shed more light on that.


Russia can always try the US apporach, nothing like millions of illegal aliens to keep poulation growth nice and healthy. Though I woudnt advise it.


[edit on 17-6-2006 by ShadowXIX]

You are correct some laws in our country need to be corrected and more importantly correctly implemented

Divorce rates has skyrocketed in Russia since the fall of soviet union ....and like else where its the men (and not women )who are generally responsible...a russian woman gets almost no support from her exhusband...and its the woman who bears the child ...I must say its Russian women who are keeping up the soceity......Its they who earn for their child ....a huge monetary compansation will surly have a positive effect in keeping up the population ....however it may have negative effect too ....men may refuse to marry...there are many men today in Russia who dont want to marry...such a law may increase the number ....so our leaders needs to make some balanced law

with this I will like to add that the main reason for so many divorces are not merely economical.....its more phylosophical rather a problem with the ideal(well thats my own assumption)
Today the Russian Generation is confused...they dont know where they stand.....are they Aians?-well they are too proud to call them Asians
Are they Europeans?yes they think so they are but most act more like americans rather than europeans -being european is not that easy
Are they soviets?-oh no...today no one among the younger generation wants the comeback of the "old inefficient backdated "Soviet Union...though they are proud of bearing the history of Soviet Union
Russia will once again become Great when we will realise that we are none but RUSSIANS

-God is Russian

Originally posted by prelude
Moreover if South East Asia (India , Pakistan , Bangladesh, Srilanka etc ) with her Dirty unhygienic roads and cities , above critical level pollution , hot(above 40 degrees centigrade temp ) humid climate , Highest infection rates in the world …can have the highest density of population in the world

Whats that meant to mean?

In 3 years
Russian GDP has climbed from
16th Rank (2002) to 9th Rank (2005)....A GIANT LEAP FOR RUSSIA

You have one measurment in nominal values while the other is in PPP?

EDIT:

[edit on 17-6-2006 by chinawhite]

Originally posted by prelude
ST. PETERSBURG, June 14 (RIA Novosti) - Russia's first fifth-generation plane could make its maiden flight as early as in 2009, the defense minister said Wednesday.

Prelude, how does "could" become "Russian 5th Gen 'to fly' by 2009: Defense Minister"?

The Russian Defense Minister is quoted as saying: 'Could make its maiden flight as early as 2009," as cited in the article.

"Could" becomes "should" then matures to a factoid.... :shk:







seekerof

[edit on 17-6-2006 by Seekerof]