USA offers Iran nuclear tech - The line has been drawn

The best, and the very final, offer has been made to Iran. Iran will get nuclear tech, but it must end enrichment immediately in exchange.

After what seems like years of Iran shooting down offer after offer from various nations to settle this nuclear standoff, the final offer has been placed on the table for Iran.

All five veto holding UN nations as well as Germany have created an offer to Iran that includes nuclear technology in exchange for an immediate end to Iranian enrichment.

These six nations including Russia and China, have agreed that if Iran does not accept this very generous offer, more “severe” repercussions will be considered up to and including military action. Ill say that again: Russia and China, who have not supported any repercussions for Iran to date, will back them now if Iran refuses this newest offer. Even the conservative Russians and Chinese must be starting to grow weary of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad’s continued refusal to entertain offers to end its enrichment program (both being shot down themselves previously).

This is it folk’s, Iran has two choices: Accept, or face possible military action.

On a related note, the USA currently has 3+ carrier groups in the region, far more than what’s required to support air support activities in Iraq and Afghanistan. Show of force? You decide.

Breitbart

A package of incentives presented Tuesday to Iran includes a provision for the United States to supply Tehran with some nuclear technology if it stops enriching uranium _ a major concession by Washington, diplomats said.

The offer was part of a series of rewards offered to Tehran by European Union foreign policy chief Javier Solana, according to the diplomats, who were familiar with the proposals and spoke to The Associated Press on condition of anonymity because they were disclosing confidential details of the offer.

The package was agreed on last week by the United States, Britain, France, China and Russia _ the five veto-wielding members of the U.N. Security Council, plus Germany, in a bid to resolve the nuclear standoff with Iran.

I will readjust my predictions on Iran:

Iran WILL refuse this offer, no question about it. I believe that the UN knows this but wants to cover the political process to be sure. This gives them the ability to say “they genuinely tried” after the fact. Once Iran refuses, they will be given one more short term offer to comply, then after that immediate sanctions will be placed against them. Iran will do something stupid like attempt to forcefully block oil from leaving the gulf. All of Iran’s assets allowing such a block would be summarily destroyed. Iran would declare war on the USA and allies and start a suicide campaign against all things western. This will work out to the west’s advantage as it would solidify the world against Iran. Iran’s entire military and nuclear capabilities would be obliterated as a result.

The world would not attempt to occupy Iran, it would simply destroy its military forces and related infrastructure.

I predict all this will transpire in the next 4-12 months

Yeah I read that this morning but i didn't see anything about "Line has been drawn". Nor did I read that this was a "final" offer. I may have missed that though.

Originally posted by intrepid
Yeah I read that this morning but i didn't see anything about "Line has been drawn". Nor did I read that this was a "final" offer. I may have missed that though.

Think of it this way, the European nations, Russia and China have hoped to solve this peacefully, along with the hesitant U.S. They urged the U.S. to try to use incentives for this one. If somehow Iran refuses this good incentive, it means theres going to be sanctions and possibly airstrikes, it be like the U.S. is saying "alright alright we will join you European nations and Russia and China to try one more time to get a peaceful conclusion your way, but if this don't work, you European nations will have to take the hardline and support us."

Originally posted by intrepid
Yeah I read that this morning but i didn't see anything about "Line has been drawn". Nor did I read that this was a "final" offer. I may have missed that though.

I don’t have the time to chase down links, but I am quoting sources that I cannot include at this time as well as the one I listed. I will try to add them later.

But with the well documented naval build up, it’s clear the final line has been drawn. And although I wont have a link for this (T.V news), Russia and China have absolutely agreed to support any actions that result of an Iranian refusal to this offer, which this aspect is the most significant of this whole story. Ill try to chase down links for that, even though I did not get that piece from an online source.

Maybe the article didn't spell that out directly, but I think many would agree that the world has gone above and beyond in trying to deal with Iran. One thing people conveniently forget is if Iran develops nukes, they will use or sell them. Then the world would conveniently hold the U.S. responsible because "you knew about it but did nothing to prevent it."

I like skippy's predictions - I can honestly see events unfolding like this.

I also agree with skippy's predictions. Question, if a war started, would Russia and China side with the western nations or would they back out and side with Iran? Didn's they (possibly just Russia) say they would defend Iran?
Taking the prediction one step further, if Iran refuses is this the start of WWIII?

I am not so sanguine regarding Iran’s military options. While I agree they are incapable of destroying even a single US Navy ship, they could use their conventional ballistic missiles to attack Saudi oil production. They could also attack Israel in hops of gleaning additional Arab support.

Posted By Skippytjc
I will readjust my predictions on Iran:

Iran WILL refuse this offer, no question about it. I believe that the UN knows this but wants to cover the political process to be sure. This gives them the ability to say “they genuinely tried” after the fact. Once Iran refuses, they will be given one more short term offer to comply, then after that immediate sanctions will be placed against them. Iran will do something stupid like attempt to forcefully block oil from leaving the gulf. All of Iran’s assets allowing such a block would be summarily destroyed. Iran would declare war on the USA and allies and start a suicide campaign against all things western. This will work out to the west’s advantage as it would solidify the world against Iran. Iran’s entire military and nuclear capabilities would be obliterated as a result.

Yep, I agree with this prediction, even though I would love to be proven wrong. My first reaction upon hearing about this was, "well, duh, they're not going to accept this!" I am sure that is what we'll see. Question is, if we blow up a reactor, wouldn't that be like blowing up a dirty bomb, spreading nuclear energy around? Just curious, I don't really know. If there's a thread on this, I would appreciate the direction.

Skippy. . . we are agreeing on something!

Originally posted by skippytjc

Iran WILL refuse this offer, no question about it. I believe that the UN knows this but wants to cover the political process to be sure. This gives them the ability to say “they genuinely tried” after the fact. Once Iran refuses, they will be given one more short term offer to comply, then after that immediate sanctions will be placed against them. Iran will do something stupid like attempt to forcefully block oil from leaving the gulf. All of Iran’s assets allowing such a block would be summarily destroyed. Iran would declare war on the USA and allies and start a suicide campaign against all things western. This will work out to the west’s advantage as it would solidify the world against Iran. Iran’s entire military and nuclear capabilities would be obliterated as a result.

The world would not attempt to occupy Iran, it would simply destroy its military forces and related infrastructure.

I predict all this will transpire in the next 4-12 months

I agree with this assessment too, though I'd like to add that Russia and China will stand down, not entering the engagement, as part of the deal with the U.S. agreeing not to invade. Further, an attempt to assassinate several key political figures may also be involved so as to effect a change in Iranian leadership.

Thats good news that Iran is at least considering this deal, however i wonder what they will class as "ambiguities"? Do you think halting enrichment would be one of them?

The proposals contain positive steps and also some ambiguities, which must be removed," Larijani said.

Larijani did not identify the "ambiguities," but he said he had discussed them with Solana and that more talks would be required.

Source: www.foxnews.com...

CX.

Oh, I think this will drag on for a long time yet. Iran won't be silly enough to dismiss this proposal completely. They'll think about it for a while and then make very positive comments about "holding talks" to address the ambiguities. This will be fine with Russia and China, while the US will be saying it's not up for negotiation. This will lead to more wasted time and disagreement. I think military action on Iran is still possible, but it could be years away still. I think if the US was going to attack it would have done it by now - I get the feeling they've decided to play the waiting game instead.

It's just another smart move of Iran in order to win more time. I think they'll see in the end, ''we've reviewed it carefully, but decided we won't stop our uranium enrichment activities''. But hopefully they prove me wrong, which would result in a peaceful outcome.

Mecheng questioned which side Russia and China will choose if a campaign in Iran really is going to take place. They both won't choose the one or the other side, as they have interests in keeping good relations with both. China purchases large amounts of Iranian crude oil while Russia has some million investment projects in process in Iran.
On the other side, the US and its allies are a big customer for their products, Chinese cheap made shoes and Russian gas for instance.

Curio, I wouldn't be so sure on the statement that military action is years away. Bush his time as president is running out, you probably agree that he won't be re-elected. Furthermore, Iran will start its oil bourse in June or July, which would be the main reason of a military campaign. It's likely that Iran will reject the proposal in the end anyway; how far are they actually away from completing a nuclear weapon?
Lastly, we don't know when another terrorist attack will take place, but if it will occur in a short period of time, Iran would be the perfect victim to blame and thus a reason, which is likely to be supported by more people and politicians then in the current situation



[edit on 6-6-2006 by Mdv2]

I agree,
Iran can take this on board and discuss it internally for quite some time.
The US has stated theres no time limit, not saying that there is a indefinate period, but Iran has the opportunity to push the buck even further here, and DRAG this on for quite some time.

but this is ultimately the last step.
Your correct skippy, the line has been drawn.

Basically, Iran goes on about its right to NUCLEAR research.
They can still have that research, as long as the material it produces DOESNT stay in Irans hands for the possible creation of nuclear material.

Plus plus for a nation if you really are after a peaceful energy source.
Someone else builds the reactors, someone else takes the waste.

It would be interesting to see how many subs are in the area, if there's a possible way to tell.

I think the world needs to give iran 1 week, then declare an answer must be put forward, or else.

Because Iran has been researching for quite a few years now, and me thinks they are getting REAL close.

Iran needs to take a lesson from North Korea at this point. In the early 90’s North Korea accepted an agreement to stop working on the bomb and in return they got light reactors and all kinds of food aid and such. In the meantime they kept right on working away until the day they stood up and declared, “Guess what bubba, we gots de’ bomb!”

It would be a win/win situation for them. It was for North Korea, their partner in the axis of evil.

I don’t see it playing out like that, but it worked once and Iran is dealing with allot of stupid people here.

Just my thoughts,

wupy

1. Do a North Korea; make short term delays so you get long term benefits. If they are serious about the atomic bomb they must first build up their biological warfare abilities (for which the world is unlikely to blink much of an eye if they see Iran cooperating in this same short term with their nuke programme).

2. Perhaps forget about the above? But do not do something stupid like attack Suez Canal. If you really want to attack just fund or arm a terrorist group instead. That way you still help make the West pay for those sanctions (higher oil price), but at the same time there is no direct military link so you and your holy men are more or less ok.

However Iran has no need to get ahead of itself and jump straight into the second option. I think it would be a stupid move that could jeopardise everything. The second move is a last resort and right now no ones got sanctions, no ones dropping bombs; so if I were them I would make this state of affairs last as long as possible. Iran has already indicated it liked bits of the proposals. I'm sure it may accept the proposal package providing we kiss its ass by tailoring it to how it likes. This way the nuke programme would already have paid its first big dividend.

Now they may decide to just stop there (but if I were them I wouldn’t). The only thing I would stop completely is uranium enrichment (and only for a while). Everything else though should quietly continue. After a few years of better technology, and more stockpiled oil money converted into assets-commodities I would then wait for the world to discover that I had secretly been back at the uranium enrichment. By which time it will be too late for the world to do anything about it.

LOOK...THE ENTIRE WORLD ISNT STUPID, ( WELL JUST CALIFORNIA AND EUROPE)
NOBODYS GOING TO LET IRAN GO HOT, BUT NOBODY BUT THE ISRALIES ARE GOING TO DO ANYTHING ABOUT IT OTHER THAN POSTURING... YOU SEE...IF WE LIGHT THE FUSE..THEN THE ENTIRE RAGHEAD POPULATION WILL RISE UP AGIANST US..BUT IF THE ISRALIES DO IT...THEN WE CAN LEGALLY LEND A HAND BECAUSE WE HAVE LEGAL OBLIGATIONS TO DO SO... AND WONT BE SEEN AS PULLING A FIRST STRIKE ON IRAN... THIS OFFERING WE ARE MAKING ISNT THE WOLF IN SHEEPS CLOTHING YOU THINK IT IS... ITS NOT FOR US TO SAY..OH WELL WE TRIED... ITS FOR THE WORLD TO SAY..HEY EVERYONE TRIED...BUT THEY REFUSED ( WHICH IS WHAT WE WANT TO HAPPEN) .... HAVNT YOU SPOTTED THE STAUNCH INTELLIGENCE POSITION HERE IN THE USA THAT ITS 4 TO 5 YEARS BEFORE IRAN HAS A BOMB, AND THE ISRALIE POSITION THAT ITS 6 TO 12 MONTHS.... WE ARE SITTING IRAN UP FOR AN ISRALIE FIRST STRIKE FOLLOWED UP BY A U.S. ARC LIGHT MISSION.... NUKE BUNKER BUSTING STYLE..
IF YOU DONT KNOW WHAT AN ARC LIGHT MISSION IS...LOOK IT UP... ILL GIVE YOU A CLUE... B52'S B2'S B1'S ........... WOOOO HOOO!!! I LOVE FIREWORKS..

Mod Note: You Have An Urgent U2U- Click Here.

[edit on 8/6/2006 by Mirthful Me]

Never Mind...

[edit on 8/6/06 by Souljah]

Originally posted by mrwupy
Iran needs to take a lesson from North Korea at this point. In the early 90’s North Korea accepted an agreement to stop working on the bomb and in return they got light reactors and all kinds of food aid and such. In the meantime they kept right on working away until the day they stood up and declared, “Guess what bubba, we gots de’ bomb!”

You better check your sources again.

America promised light water reactors to North Korea, but after ten years guess what?

They never got the reactors.

I suspect that Iran is aware of this, and they will not trust America because when does America keep its word?

BTW: DOes anyone know what kind of tech America is offering for Iran to give up their right to enrich Uranium?

Is it worth more than decades of nuclear fuel?

Or is it a glowing yo-yo?

The latest offer seems more reasonable, at least to me.

www.jpost.com...

World powers have compromised on a demand that Iran commit to a long-term moratorium on uranium enrichment and are asking only for suspension during talks on Teheran's nuclear program, diplomats said Wednesday.

In another concession, Iran would be allowed to carry out uranium conversion - a precursor to enrichment - if it agrees to multination talks, the diplomats said. They spoke to The Associated Press on condition of anonymity because they are not authorized to divulge the contents of the offer made by six countries to Teheran Tuesday in a bid to defuse the Iranian nuclear standoff.

More at source

Demanding a permenant end to enrichment was not going to work, and they knew it.

Maybe now talks can start, but I have to wonder if it will do any good because America shows no signs of respecting Irans right to create its own nuclear fuel.

The rest of the world is watching closely because if Iran is forced to give it up the NPT no longer has any meaning.

In trying to contain Iran we may burst the bubble everywhere else in the world.

So, let me get this straight.

Skippy, and a few others here feel that there is nothing wrong with threatening Iran if they do not accept a deal where they trade the right to enrich nuclear fuel in exchange for a box of glowing yo-yos?

And you think this is a good deal, and fair offer?