It looks like you're using an Ad Blocker.
Please white-list or disable AboveTopSecret.com in your ad-blocking tool.
Thank you.
Some features of ATS will be disabled while you continue to use an ad-blocker.
Originally posted by The Middle Kingdom
Also if America and the Western allies decide to sop trading then we appeal to WTO and each every single nation that goes against WTO has to then pay for the cost of not trading with China.
Originally posted by chinawhite
Exactly, nothing.
The reason is that he wasn't replying to you
And china releases it US bonds and Cash reserves.
China is buying your debt.
Because economics dont work like that.
China is building up her domestic demand. soon (ten years) chian will have 300million-400million middle class workers.
In the future china is not going to have a shortage of customers. but manufractures that cant keep up with demand
Egotistic aren't cha
Their is no crisis because of the population control.
Originally posted by The Middle Kingdom
There was no original population crisis with China we realized quite early on if that the populatio gets to big our economy won't support it.
Small price to pay for economic prosperity.
Hmmm. perhaps. GM modified crops only work if you have ariable land to grow them on. WHile the 3 Gorges dam will help by preventing flooding in China's breadbasket, there still are way to many mouths to feed.
While oil is everybodies weakspot, what about food? The huge ramp up in industrial capacity and production has impacted the environement quite a bit a fact that has the CCP trying to toughen standards. THis also is and will impact the production of food. How do you feed that many people? You import, import, import.
I think China realizes this problem and thats why they are hoping genetically engineered rice will help solve this problem. Shrinking acreage, falling water tables and a population that is expected to grow significantly beyond 1.3 billion could make food a very big problem.
Yes, unfortunately for China economics DO in fact work like that. When your economy is based off of exports, and suddenly no one buys your exports, your economy goes into shock.
Simply put, without the West buying Chinas goods, Chinas economy will go down the toilet.
Good for them. The Chinese economy is still at the mercy of the US, and the US can still survive without China quite easily.
I say again, without the US and it's money, China is screwed. What happens when the US, and every one of it's western allies decide that India, or Africa (as FredT pointed out) can do it's labor for them? What then? China will have litterally tens of millions (maybe even hundreds) of people without jobs.
Not only that, but then the realestate market crashes because all of that industrial land doesn't have any use.
When that happens, and it will if China continues to try and challange US supremecy, the Chinese economy will be destroyed.
Originally posted by American Mad Man
And then the rest of the world buys them up, because US debt is considered among the safetst investments in the world.
Good for them. The Chinese economy is still at the mercy of the US, and the US can still survive without China quite easily.
Yes, unfortunately for China economics DO in fact work like that. When your economy is based off of exports, and suddenly no one buys your exports, your economy goes into shock.
Source?
Obviously if there were not a population crises to begin with, there would be no need for population control, eh?
Originally posted by The Middle Kingdom
There was no original population crisis with China we realized quite early on if that the populatio gets to big our economy won't support it.
Small price to pay for economic prosperity.
Originally posted by COWlan
I don't know what this big fuss about China being supported by America because China only exports 21.1% of its export goods to America followed by Japan, Korea, Taiwan and Germany. I'll give a link but I need to find the site first.
I say that India with a population control might have a bright future but without one, India WILL be in ruins.
The one child policy is for the benefit of the FUTURE. If you already have a population disaster in your hand then your government really sucks and couldn't see the crisis before it happened. Always look a few steps ahead of you.
It's not about westerners don't buy CHinese goods, its that they can't STOP buying CHinese goods. Business is different politics, politics has boundaries, business is everyone for themselves, as long as they make a buck, they'd do anything. And with China, they make a buck. Thats as easy as I can state it.
Originally posted by American Mad Man
Go look up how many Chinese people still live in caves.
I dare you.
Are you really questioning the beneficial nature of having a country who accumulates wealth through many exports? Having a trade deficit is much more worrisome than being reliant on exports.
Have you ever looked at the tags on American/western goods. Where are they made? You see China everywhere. If you “suddenly” shut off trade with China, U.S./western companies with Chinese factories (Nike, computer companies, etc.) will have no supply chain tell they build a factory in some other low income country like India or Africa or do it in the West yet have prices get hiked. It is quite possible that you couldn’t build another U.S./European computer for another year. The vast majority of DVD players are made in China (for example), so you won’t have those for a while either. In 2004, the U.S. alone imported 45 billion of power generation equipment, 42 billion in electrical machinery and equipment, 4 billion in steel/Iron and 3 billion in optics/medical equipment from China. These 4 items exports from China to the U.S. were up from the previous year of 2003 by 46.3%, 38.8 %, 64.0% and 17.1 % respectively. The list goes on and on. Looking at the increasing integration of the U.S. and China, I would not wait for China to begin to rival U.S. supremacy to cut off trade because at that point, it will be much worse to actually cut off trade for the U.S. and not as bad for China. You could then shock your country or the west less if you did it slowly, but then it won’t hurt China’s as much either.
There is also the factor that if you don’t exploit Chinese labor with investment, other countries that aren’t against it (lets say we exclude the West in this exercise) will step in with their capital and then begin to threaten the U.S.’s supremacy. Japan is a non-western country that comes to mind who already have 1/3 the economy and are investing in China.
The U.S. economy will still exist despite the U.S.’s support. I agree it would be much worse for China without the west, but the U.S. is a much different story.
You know, if you are going to play economic war scenerios. Do you know what would happen if China set a date that they would drop all their U.S. currency a week from the announcement and also sell all their government bonds? Suddenly, you are looking at a crash in the dollar. People in other countries would say “I don’t want dollars, they will be worth 10% less in a week“ I will charge you 10% more then. Then people realize that, and the mind set that they will become increasingly worthless will cause more and more people to jump out. The cycle continues. People wouldn’t want to hold onto their dollars, they exchange them (banks, countries), and then you have the market flooded. People might stop taking dollars as the uncertainty in their worth would be high. The same would go for government bonds. If China sold them cheap, why buy from U.S, when you can get from China. U.S. debt therefore isn’t being subsidized by China and you also don’t have as much coming form other sources as they are buying bonds from China.
When they decide that they will go to Africa or India? It is more like “if they decide…”.
You jump from U.S. to U.S. and western allies too much. You say without U.S.’ money China is screwed, but then a sentence later (supposedly meant to support the topic sentence) you say “What happens when the US, and everyone of it’s western allies decide…”.
China everyday will do better and better without U.S. support. I think they could handle it ok right now, but even better in the future as more production (especially high tech) moves there (if they produce what they need, they don’t need imports and don‘t need exports to pay for imports). Also, the countries export increase in one year is probably more than the lack of exports to U.S. will decrease exports. For instance, exports in 2004 went up 35.4% over the previous year. If U.S. cut out at that moment, it might just neutralize their export increase for that year and nothing more. European and U.S. cutting trade would be different. Still 6 out of 10 of China’s biggest trading partners are in Asia.
Only time will tell…..
Originally posted by chinawhite
Who has the money to buy them up?
If america abandoms china then it will move to another place, yeah?
this only places americas trade deficit on other countries. America will still have the trade deficit but will also lose 40billion dollars on its exports.
If the US could survive without china then the americans would have let china go after the cold war or wouldn't have signed a MFN with them.
Because they value trade with china.
China not only buys 40billion dollars of american goods, but buys over 500billion off other countries to.
If the chiense economy is de-stablized then a lot of countries around the world will feel the pinch.
Chinas economy is export growth driven but not suported by exports alone. go check the break down of chians economic sectors.
Originally posted by American Mad Man
Honestly, they would not all be bought up at original value. Hence, it hurts China.
Yes, American credit would take a hit there. I don't deny that. But, it is not something that would kill the US... Send it into a recession - absolutely.
I believe the US would find a (or many) new places to make it's goods. There are a lot of people in this world, and a lot of countries. All want jobs, and all want the US buying from them. The US will (and I believe has been) setting up the ground work for a new source of cheap labor. India, Africa, and South America are all places the US could look.
On the other hand, if the US were to exert it's considerable political leverage and bring it's allies into this game (which it would), China would suddenly be without the majority of it's top 10 consumers. That alone is enough to cripple any economy.
Very true. I completely agree.
But here is the thing... 40 billion dollars is NOTHING to the US in return for neutralizing an enemy. Hell, the US spends 4 HUNDRED billion a year on defence alone. We would gain much more then we lost by cutting China off.
Hell, it's plain for any person to see the US has already started with it's forced isolation on China. Just look at which nations the US has recently become strategic allies with. Look at how the US is 'boxing her in'. Look at how the US is striking all of Chinas allies. It is all part of a systematic plan to prevent China from becoming a threat.
Originally posted by chinawhite
Its not how cheap the labour is(because a lot more people work cheaper than chinese workers.)
Its how eficent and how fast the goods are made and delivered. china took 26 years to build up this network of suppliers manufractures and delivery. The reason the west comes to china is not because of the cheap larbour but all those points up there
Other countries that could take chinas place doesn't have the infrastructure nor the resources to build this kind of thing.
China is a large country and was able to organize the funds and organisation to create the opportunities for these western companies.
Originally posted by google_abcd
That is for true. China has one of the best delivery systems and manufractures archetectures in the world. However, many western people still think the success of China's economy relies on the "SLAVE" system or prisoners.
Come on, cheap labor doesn't equal to SLAVE, OK? If so , there are still many SLAVEs in north american and europe. Also, do you think there are 100 million prisoner in China? Use your head, man.
Sometimes, I really feel boring and tired to clarify this again and again.
Most western people only konw or just focus on the dark side of China but try to ignore(or pretend to?) the bright side of China.
Personally speaking, China makes cheap products with acceptable quality. It is not very good if compared with the expensive goods from Japan or US. However, most people can live with it. That is enough.
Originally posted by Are u for real???
I think China needs to put its self in check before it thinks it is so great.
In case it needs a reminder, the US should tell it two words:
Hiroshima and Nagasaki
ie. If you think we were that good back then, imagine what we have now.
Bring it!!!