Canada VS USA: Trade War?

Do you believe Canada and the United States are on the verge of a trade war?

Its getting a bit ugly in my opinion. Lets read.

Prime Minister Paul Martin has taken Canada's fight with the U.S. over softwood to the U.S. -- and his implied threats to turn off the oil taps to the U.S. market is attracting some attention south of the border.

In a speech to the Economic Club in New York on Thursday, Martin called the U.S. position "nonsense" and a "breach of faith". In that speech, and later on CNN, Martin hinted that Canada could use its oil as a weapon to force U.S. President George Bush's hand over duties imposed on Canadian lumber.

This short reading alone should be enough evidence to note that it could get worse.

The white house isn't taking things too seriously.

So far, the White House is downplaying the Prime Minister's implied threats to turn off the oil taps. When asked for reaction, White House Press secretary Scott McClellan said the U.S. is committed to resolving the lingering lumber issue.

All quotes from here

Related Reading
National Post
Globe and Mail
CBC
London Free Press
CTV
Reuters
Globe and Mail

Martin on CNN Transcript

Id like to hear views from both sides of the border. One thing I have to note though, please dont rant about fighting over "only 5 billion"

I would make the same thread if it was over a twoonie.

I cant see Canada wanting to start a trade war because they would stand far more to lose then the USA if it got out of hand.

Canada exports 83% of its merchandise to the US, and receives 70% of the goods it imports from the US. On the flip side, 23% of US merchandise exports go to Canada, and 18% of the goods the US imports come from Canada.

Who would make out worst in that trade war?

www.usembassycanada.gov... content/textonly.asp?section=can_usa&subsection1=trade&subsection2=&document=econ2

While its fair to state those, I dont want to turn this into a who has more thing. But then again you forgot some important ones.

And the fact that canada has a smaller population. The percentage may seem small, but we are your largest supplier in many aspects.

Canada is the United States' top petroleum supplier and largest foreign supplier of total energy. Canada exported roughly 1.53 million barrels per day of crude oil to the United States during 2002 - a new record, up 5 percent over 2001.

· Canada's oil sands contain 1.7 to 2.5 trillion barrels of oil -- significantly more than Saudi Arabia. Of this, at least 170 to 300 billion barrels are considered commercially recoverable with current technology at world oil prices over US$20 per barrel.

Thats the kicker in this equation. We all know how ape people are going over gas now.

Well if Canada started a trade war using its advantage as a top petroleum supplier to the USA you couldnt really expect the US to not use its own advantage right back in a trade war. I just dont see the numbers in Canadas favor in a full scale trade war. The US just buys far far more from Canada then Canada buys from the US.

Originally posted by ShadowXIX
I cant see Canada wanting to start a trade war because they would stand far more to lose then the USA if it got out of hand.

Canada exports 83% of its merchandise to the US, and receives 70% of the goods it imports from the US. On the flip side, 23% of US merchandise exports go to Canada, and 18% of the goods the US imports come from Canada.

Who would make out worst in that trade war?

www.usembassycanada.gov... content/textonly.asp?section=can_usa&subsection1=trade&subsection2=&document=econ2

Canada has approximately only 30 Million people, Oil, nature, water, and can support itself with the best self sufficiency anywhere. Who are you kidding???

The facts are simple If you can look at those numbers and think Canada would make out better on tariffs or other trade barriers

Just look what happened when the US stopped buying cattle from Canada. A cow that would have normally sold for $1,300 was selling for $15

www.cbc.ca...

Originally posted by ShadowXIX
The facts are simple If you can look at those numbers and think Canada would make out better on tariffs or other trade barriers

Just look what happened when the US stopped buying cattle from Canada. A cow that would have normally sold for $1,300 was selling for $15

www.cbc.ca...

The cattle were blocked from countries other than the United States. They had just as much impact as the U.S. closure.

I should know, I lost money to it.

But what did we do after the closure? We built up our own capabilities and started to become less dependent on the United States plants.

We also found out that protectionist groups in the united states are buggers !

I really dont see it as much of a threat

In practice trade wars tend to be very non-productive and decrease the economic welfare and total social surplus of all nations involved.

The Threat of a trade war can be helpful for winning a concession of some sort or another. Thats really all this is nothing more IMHO and the US dont seem to be bothered by this threat too much

Empty threats, no one is going to shoot there economic feet off in regards to having a full blown US/Canada trade war. Sounds like pre-election tough talk to me.

Anne Golden, president of the Conference Board of Canada, was equally dismissive. "The bottom line is a trade war would hurt both partners, but we're the smaller contender and we would be the biggest loser," she said. "We need NAFTA, we've done very well under NAFTA. It's not in Canada's interest to abandon it." theglobeandmail

Instead of bumping my old dead horse (USA owes canada 5 billion dollars) I decided to bump this slightly less stinking thread.

Source

Prime Minister Paul Martin has warned U.S. President George W. Bush that Canada will wage its battle over softwood lumber in American courts - and in the court of public opinion.

Martin spoke with Bush by phone Friday but the leaders failed to make any progress on the softwood issue. It was unclear which leader made the call. But officials said afterwards that neither budged from his original position on softwood lumber during the 20-minute chat.

Bush maintained that he prefers a negotiated settlement, said officials for both Martin and the president.

"The president said he believes we need to get back to the negotiating table and try to find a lasting solution," said White House spokesman Scott McClellan.

"This is an issue that has gone on for some time. And we would like to see it resolved."

The prime minister insisted there's no reason for Canada to negotiate because it has already won all NAFTA challenges to U.S. tariffs and duties that have cost Canadian lumber firms $5 billion.

Should get interesting.

I bumped your old thread.

We have government officials in China right now discussing how much oil and timber they want to buy from us, after they pay to develop the oilsands for us. Then the Chinese will have a nice stake in the oil that Canada sends south. Does that not concern Americans?

Originally posted by Duzey
Does that not concern Americans?

It should concern the Canadians the most, that is if they want to learn to speak Mandarine and study Maoism.

Forget the money for a moment and consider just this one fact; Canada has repeatedly won their case in judgements from a panel which oversees negotiations within NAFTA. A panel set up the way the United States insisted they wanted.

How can Canada carry on with NAFTA if one party refuses to cooperate with the legal rulings?

On the beef thing...yea, you hurt us badly over the BSE thing. Outcome? We now have our own processing plants and don't send our beef to the US anymore to get 'packaged'.

The Chinese have been getting more and more interested in trade with Canada; oil and lumber are only two facets of what they are looking for. The most interesting part of their recent visit was the fact that they were looking for 'environmental technologies'. I'm still trying to figure out what that involves.

As the Arctic is less and less an 'ice bound' place, the Northwest Passage is becoming more of a reality. Canada will soon be able to open up the vast resources she has in her north. Does America really want to lose out on the potential of those resources just because she won't abide by the rules of NAFTA?



[edit on 15-10-2005 by masqua]

There's some that will argue that the US is in preparation towards isolationism before the next world war breaks out. Trade is a non-issue if Indo-China invades and the US leaves Canada on its own.

If Canada wants to feed the dragon, let them....they just have to remember the policeman to the south will be hasta la vista.

Canada used to be America's #1 trading partner. That's changed...America imports more from China now than Canada.

This whole issue reminds me of 'flipping a coin' for the restaurant bill. The guy that loses the first flip says; "ok, two out of three" and when he loses again says. "Dang, three out of five, and, when losing for the fourth time says; " I'm bigger than you...you pay the bill".

Originally posted by Regenmacher
There's some that will argue that the US is in preparation towards isolationism before the next world war breaks out. Trade is a non-issue if Indo-China invades and the US leaves Canada on its own.

That likelyhood of that happening in the near future is zilch to nada. The "great" USA will not allow any type of hostile force near it's borders if it can help it, and you're also forgetting that America seems to have more imperialist tendancies then China at the moment Of course they colonize with Corporations instead of troops and colonists(well most of the time they do it with Corps), the results and motivations are exactly the same as any expansionist empire.

[edit on 15-10-2005 by sardion2000]

Originally posted by sardion2000
That likelyhood of that happening in the near future is zilch to nada.

Your presuming the economy will stay afloat when Amerika is already bankrupt. Wait till the economic collapse hits and then say that.

Great Depression in Canada

Canada is sometimes considered to be the country hardest hit by the Great Depression. The economy fell further than that of any nation other than the United States, and it took far longer to recover. It hit especially hard in Western Canada, where a full recovery did not occur until the Second World War began in 1939.

Maybe best to feed the dragon and learn maoism, since debtor nations are not going to save anyone's butt but themselves when the cowpies hit the fan.

[edit on 15-10-2005 by Regenmacher]

Originally posted by Regenmacher

Originally posted by Duzey
Does that not concern Americans?

It should concern the Canadians the most, that is if they want to learn to speak Mandarine and study Maoism.

I would think that Canadians would rather have that then be forced under the USA's example of "Fascism under the guise of Democracy" system that is currently taking place. At least the Chinese know where they stand.
Sorry... slightly off topic...

A little more digging about US imports has found that Canada in August beat out China for imports to America.

Facts: July Canadian exports to US $20, 832.3 (millions)
China $21, 282.5
August Canada $24,907.2
China $22,364.9

source

Seems to me that China is working very hard at being the #1 exporter to the US.

Edit to remove attempt at 'centering' (need to check bb code)

[edit on 15-10-2005 by masqua]

To understand this issue better you must understand Canadian domestic politics. Martin is in a minority and to keep the support of the NDP and Bloc he needs to keep up an anti-american stance in regards to trade. Libs don't want an election right now because the gap between then and the conservatives is getting tighter. The Dingwell severance issue has been hurting them along with other problems. The Libs want to wait until Gomery comes out with his report for a Spring election.