What is Russia's Likely Response To Israeli Strikes on Iran?

Russia will scream and yell,as well as the rest of the world.The Israelies will come by way of submarine

Originally posted by TrueAmerican
Especially with the US hounding Saudi for use of their airspace?

That'd prolly make the most sense. Heck, the current King of Jordan is rather cozy with the US too.

Originally posted by Nygdan
Heck, the current King of Jordan is rather cozy with the US too.

Yeah, so essentially either way could have worked for Osirak, and still could work for Bushehr.

But if this is going to be done at all, it would seem that the US would have a much easier time of it, mounting a dart in, dart out kind of attack from a base such as Qatar, which is directly across the Persian Gulf:

external image

Of course, that would entail US involvement and open another can of worms. I had mentioned in another thread reasons why it might be easier for Israel, but for every reason I mentioned, there is probably an easier one for the US to do it, given their current strategic locations. I don't think I'd argue that with anyone.

Back on Topic:
Nonetheless, and regardless of how easy or not it is for Israel or the US, I am still curious for more opinions on the Russian response to Israeli strikes without US (public) involvement. Thanks to you that have replied so far!

Mod Edit: Image Size – Please Review This Link.


[edit on 4/10/2005 by Mirthful Me]

yes, sorry bout that MM, will do in future. This link helps particularly with this situation, and I now remember, just been a while since I used images, and forgot. Thanks for the link!

politics.abovetopsecret.com...

[edit on 5-10-2005 by TrueAmerican]

Their reply will go something like this:

"Thank you sir, may I have another!"

The rest of the world along with Russia will publicly steam and denounce the attack, yet secretly pat Israel on the back for saving our A again just like they did in 83. Russia gets more money for new contracts so they're happy, The Europeans get to act tough and angry, while secretly celebrating they don't have to get their hands dirty. The US, well the US just sits back and smiles.

Brought to you by the wonderful world of politics

[edit on 4-10-2005 by WestPoint23]

Very interesting.

A few key things to say...

First of all, for some odd reason people here seem to think that a country spending much much more on military and Israel, and having a much much larger military than Israel, is going to just sit back and be incapable of doing anything, while Israel is somehow going to do something?

And what about China? They have a hell of a lot more money invested in Iran than everyone else combined!

Getting back to the main question, like people have stated Russia can do so much without having a single soldier in Iran.

First of all they have been selling/giving Iran missiles and defence battries to shoot down sihips (supposing that the US was going to invade Iran), and I'm sure Russia would be as glad to sell Iran some SAM equipment as Iran would be to aquire it.

And now I ask you, how the heck can Israel bomb the reactor, if they can't get their planes anywhere near it, without getting shot down?

And it's not like Iran doesn't have their own fighters to intercept Israel, and I'm sure Russia with their 100s of spy sats and such would give Iran all the intel they need to stop an Israeli attack.


If israel goes on and does an all out-invasion of Iran, well I would expect China to be the one to help Iran first, but I think Russia would too.

Why not? They have hundreds of thousand spare troops, they have all the equipment they want, they have transport planes they have countless tanks, planes - everything.

And their military budget is rising all the time - that money has to be going somewhere doesn't it?

And I don't know why people think Russia can't participate in a war, perhaps they are forgetting about Chechnya?

Now if I was Israel, I would be more worried about the 2008 Russian presedential election.
If one of the crazy, radical candidates gets elected - you bet they'll start a war!!! Some candidates who are running in the 2008 election over there claim they will reform USSR, nuke anyone who doesn't agree with them, take alaska back, ect ect ect. Wanting to do all that, do you think they will have any problem defending Iran, and proving a point that Israel and other wana-be countries can't mess with Russia's allies, no matter how big/small?

Personally, I haven't got a clue what's going to happen, but I sure as hell don't want to find out.

I hope Israel does nothing

Originally posted by Manincloak
First of all, for some odd reason people here seem to think that a country spending much much more on military and Israel, and having a much much larger military than Israel, is going to just sit back and be incapable of doing anything, while Israel is somehow going to do something?

The Russians cannot mount an invasion force beyond the countries adjacent to it. They cannot, for example, cross the caucus, march thru armenia and turkey, link up with Syrian columns, and invade israel, nor can they send an invasion fleet out of the Euxine and hit israels cost. They simply don't have the 'force projection capacity' anymore.

And what about China? They have a hell of a lot more money invested in Iran than everyone else combined!

Utterly isolationist.

First of all they have been selling/giving Iran missiles and defence battries to shoot down sihips

To stop the strike? They'd have to sell these things to iran before the strike, in order to accomplish this.

if they can't get their planes anywhere near it, without getting shot down?

Thats a bit of an if tho no?

And it's not like Iran doesn't have their own fighters to intercept Israel

The iranian air force is, from what I understand, extremely backwards. Hussein's army in the previous situation was about the same, if not better equiped, and they couldn't stop them.

and I'm sure Russia with their 100s of spy sats and such would give Iran all the intel they need to stop an Israeli attack.

They'd have to search a rather large area to find a small set of small planes.

If israel goes on and does an all out-invasion of Iran,

I don't think anyone is considering that as possible. That'd be a very different situation. If they did that, then a pan-arab alliance would form against israel, with russian and probably chinese and pakistani support.

They have hundreds of thousand spare troops, they have all the equipment they want, they have transport planes they have countless tanks, planes - everything.

Who? The Russians? They can't but barely deal with the chechnyans, and they have geo-strategic commitments elsewhere, like central asia and their european border.

And their military budget is rising all the time - that money has to be going somewhere doesn't it?

From what I recall they can just barely afford to pay their troops consistently.

And I don't know why people think Russia can't participate in a war, perhaps they are forgetting about Chechnya?

I think Chechnya is what we're all thinking of.

If one of the crazy, radical candidates gets elected - you bet they'll start a war!!!

Lets consider the possibilities that don't inlcude 'power-mad dictator tries to take over the world'.

Wanting to do all that, do you think they will have any problem defending Iran, and proving a point that Israel and other wana-be countries can't mess with Russia's allies, no matter how big/small?

Global Thermonuclear War. MAD assures that Russia wouldn't try to take over the world. They didn't do it when they were the Soviet Union, they're not going to do it now.

I hope Israel does nothing

And what happens when Iran sells nukes to international terrorists and a western city get vaporized? Do you think that the global repurcussions will be greater or lesser if that happens? Is the world less stable with israel hitting a facility in iran, or with the US mounting a full scale invasion of iran based on intelligence reports of them providing the nukes? If theres a 'power mad russian dictator' in moscow, which war would be worse, a yehudi-ruski war, or russian-american global thermonuclear war?

Originally posted by WestPoint23
The rest of the world along with Russia will publicly steam and denounce the attack, yet secretly pat Israel on the back for saving our A again just like they did in 83. Russia gets more money for new contracts so they're happy, The Europeans get to act tough and angry, while secretly celebrating they don't have to get their hands dirty. The US, well the US just sits back and smiles.

Brought to you by the wonderful world of politics

Now this is interesting, westpoint. I'm curious that you'd think Russia would get more money for contracts, when after the attacks the Iranians are going to wonder why Russia didn't keep up with their promise to defend. I'm also curious why no one has raised the possibility of Russia defending against the attacks as a surprise, and thereby thwarting them. With today's technology, wouldn't it be possible that the Russians spot the incoming Israeli planes and scramble to counterattack them?

I tend to agree with a number of people in this thread that Russia, as before with Iraq under Saddam Hussein, will not retaliate militarily from an Israeli air raid to destroy a threatening neighbor's nuclear weapons facilities.

Additionally, as before with Iraq, Russia will continue to make money through arms and technical support with Iran.

Red China won't get involved militarily either.

Their first major move will be to invade and conquer Taiwan.

[edit on 5-10-2005 by Paul_Richard]

Well Paul, I have already countered that argument in a previous post on this thread. It is not the same parallel, because Osirak was a FRENCH reactor, and therefore Russia had no interest in it. This is way different, and involves a different set of dynamics including Iran, Syria, Russia, Israel, the US and possibly China. Nothing to do with the French.

Originally posted by TrueAmerican
Well Paul, I have already countered that argument in a previous post on this thread. It is not the same parallel, because Osirak was a FRENCH reactor, and therefore Russia had no interest in it. This is way different, and involves a different set of dynamics including Iran, Syria, Russia, Israel, the US and possibly China. Nothing to do with the French.

TrueAmerican,

Indeed, it was a French reactor but it was located on Iraqi soil, under Iraqi airspace, and under Iraqi governmental control. Russia supplied the Saddam Hussein regime with armaments and technical support.

The same applies to Iran.

No matter what foreign company the nuclear weapons facilities reflect, it is the Iranian government which ultimately controls the facility, with Russia once again playing the role of armament supplier and advisor.

But I still don't see Russia getting involved militarily if there is an Israeli air strike against Iranian nuclear weapons facilities. They are not ready for a war with the US and Israel as they were back in the 1980s.

You guys should know that iran can counter-attack even without doing a full scale attack, lets not forget Shahab-3B and our own cruise missles like Fateh-110A and NAZEAT10 =, ZELZAL 1 and 2, all those missles which can easily hit Isreal.

NR,

I have no doubt that Iran can counter-attack effectively.

As to whether a retaliatory strike to Israel would result in all their missiles being destroyed before impact, I really can't say. Their missiles are more advanced than the SCUDs that Saddam used and their overall military prowess is also greater than Iraq's was.

It would be a very interesting war.

[edit on 5-10-2005 by Paul_Richard]

Originally posted by Paul_Richard
TrueAmerican,

Indeed, it was a French reactor but it was located on Iraqi soil, under Iraqi airspace, and under Iraqi governmental control. Russia supplied the Saddam Hussein regime with armaments and technical support.

The same applies to Iran.

Lol Paul, puhleeease! No chance. Sorry. This is way different. The Russians may have supplied or sold weapons to Iraq, but I've never heard that they provided nuclear technicians or technical assistance directly for Osirak.

In contrast, Russia has provided nuclear technicians, technology and assistance to Iran for the construction of Bushehr, as well as possibly other sites. The mere fact that Russia would entrust Iran with such technology implies a greater bond between the two than the "casual observer" scenario that you are implying.

I might also point out that due to internal high level Russian corruption, what technology was in fact transferred to Iran the Russians themselves may not even know. Please read the articles I posted earlier in the thread for more on that. What if due to the corruption additional info and/or equipment was given to Iran under the table, which the Russian government found out about later, and thus forced them into a defensive role for Iran out of fear that they will be blamed if an Irainian nuclear device is detonated in Israel, for example?

Russia has PEOPLE, and important people I might add, working in the facility. Without advance warning, it is likely that many of them will be killed or wounded in a preemptive strike. The one thing I am still unclear on is where the Russians agreed to defend Iran militarily, as was mentioned in another post. I would like to see more info on that.

No matter what foreign company the nuclear weapons facilities reflect, it is the Iranian government which ultimately controls the facility, with Russia once again playing the role of armament supplier and advisor.

Once again, given what is stated above, there may be more than that involved here.

But I still don't see Russia getting involved militarily if there is an Israeli air strike against Iranian nuclear weapons facilities. They are not ready for a war with the US and Israel as they were back in the 1980s.

Well, I think in this case that it depends on how the strikes are done, from whom, and whether Russia loses many of their key nuclear techs in the process. What if they lose them all, and get VERY pissed off to the point of retaliation? This IS a possibility. Maybe not a probablity. But a possibility. And if there is indeed a promise to defend involved, then maybe we are looking more at probability instead of possibility.

I dont think Russia would be happy but I doubt they would wage a War with another Nuclear power over something like Iran. Theres a good reason why countries with nuclear weapons dont fight other countries with nuclear weapons very often.

Israel might not have anywhere near the numbers of Nukes Russia has but they have more then enough to cripple any country or invading army.

Originally posted by NR
You guys should know that iran can counter-attack even without doing a full scale attack, lets not forget Shahab-3B and our own cruise missles like Fateh-110A and NAZEAT10 =, ZELZAL 1 and 2, all those missles which can easily hit Isreal.

Doesnt Iran have the S-300 missiles supplied by Russia for several years now?
They could most likely intercept Israeli fighters before they even reach the reactor.

Originally posted by shire19

Originally posted by NR
You guys should know that iran can counter-attack even without doing a full scale attack, lets not forget Shahab-3B and our own cruise missles like Fateh-110A and NAZEAT10 =, ZELZAL 1 and 2, all those missles which can easily hit Isreal.

Doesnt Iran have the S-300 missiles supplied by Russia for several years now?
They could most likely intercept Israeli fighters before they even reach the reactor.

We have over 30 S-300 and we make our own versian of S-200 with a 156-mile range. Our own made S-200 is Ghareh .

Missiles Superiority, Associated Press, October 18 1997

TEHRAN - Iran declared Saturday that it possessed the strongest missile force in the volatile Gulf, the latest in a series of claims about its growing military prowess.

Adm. Mohammad Razi Hadayeq, who commands the missile force, said Iran's Qareh missile system had turned Iran into the region's "strongest missile power," the Islamic Republic News Agency said...

Iran's former president, Hashemi Rafsanjani, said last week that his country could now build anti-aircraft missiles with a 156-mile range.

Meanwhile, the news agency quoted a senior navy commander as saying that Iran could also design and build speed boats capable of firing missiles and was working on building small tactical submarines.

www.iran-e-azad.org...

re-engineered SA-2 sam called Sayad-1(A) with 30 mile range.

[edit on 5-10-2005 by NR]

A Disturbing Article From Rense.com
Posted By Il_Bagattel
3-17-5

www.rense.com...

The Cafe and GATA (Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee) have developed quite the information network around the world. On that note I am passing on what I am hearing from a solid source. None of this can go in the verified camp, so it all must be treated as RUMOR until we receive proper verification:

* Russia is preparing for possible war and its actions on the dollar indicate just that; they are going to back Syria, Iran. China will back Iran.

* Russia has made deals on oil and gas projects and opened its minerals to trading. This should show soon in response to Chinese raw materials buying.

* Russia has also abandoned efforts to tie the ruble's movement closely to the dollar and switched to shadowing both the euro and the US currency. This is the first step to war. Other countries operating de facto dollar pegs will follow suit. With 81 per cent of Russia's oil exports currently sold to Europe, the move means that Russia will eventually denominate its oil in euros.

*visit link for more*
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Yup, it's Rense. But still, makes me wonder what in the HECK is going on here. If that were true, well then I guess we have an answer to my original thread title. IF it were true. Jesus, and so does this mean that Venezuela's recent reallocation of funds move ties into this as well? Are we facing an upcoming serious worldwide disaster? China and Russia joint military excersizes? I am getting worried, folks.

Russia's early warning radar system has been crippled due to the lack of funds to upgrade it and service it, so I’m doubting their capability to detect and launch fighters.

Israel even in the 80’s got very very lucky when they destroyed Iraq's reactors. If Iraq had scrambled a few fighters to engage the Israeli pilots, they would have fallen out of the sky because they wouldn't have enough fuel to get back to Israel.

So neither county is really in a great position to attack each another, without US help the Israelis might not succeed.