Oil reserves are increasing.... The Peak Oil myth

www.lewrockwell.com...

Intresting article on the myth of peak oil. The myth was propgated by 3 types of people

(1) Oil business intrests: Drive the price of oil high.

(2) The Environmentalists: those who want us to use alternative sources of energy

(3) Foolish intellectuals

One of my college professors told me 25 years ago that he didn't think that oil was created the way everybody thought. He said that it had to be made by some chemical reaction that we didn't know about yet. I think he was right. All that oil is is just hydrogen and carbon.

Well oil is just hydrogen and Carbon its a hydrocarbon . Now as for what your professor said I do not know. AS for the origonal post. Yes I belive that the oil industry has skyrocked for thoes reasons to some extent.

Doh, *shakes head*

Peak oil is not about the ammount of oil in the ground, its about the production of oil, CHEAP oil that is.

These recent new finds (or claims of new finds) will probably be harder to get out of the ground. The so-called oil-sands in Canada are also a great myth. The oil, needs to be extracted from the sand, how are they gonna do that? By heating it up by burning natural gas. Have you seen the natural gases prices lately?

Peak Oil is about the end of CHEAP oil, and that's what we're gonna face, and have to deal with. There will be oil in the ground for two hundred years or more, no doubt about that, but it will become more and more difficult to get it out of the ground.

According to the peak oil theorists, the global oil production has already peaked, and while demand is still growing, oil can only become more and more expensive. (I myself believe the oil production will peak within 15 years from now, not this year, but that doesn't even matter). We need to get rid of our oil dependancy, and invest in new resources of energy.


[edit on 10-2-2005 by Zion Mainframe]

Originally posted by crusader
Intresting article on the myth of peak oil. The myth was propgated by 3 types of people

(1) Oil business intrests: Drive the price of oil high.

(2) The Environmentalists: those who want us to use alternative sources of energy

(3) Foolish intellectuals

Wrong, wrong, wrong...

Please feel free to read the information posted by the "foolish intellectuals" who run the EIA and the DOE, and who in turn publish a daily petroleum report, which may be found here.

And as I see has already been mentioned, "Peak Oil" has little to do with the resident oil content in the ground... and as has already been mentioned, it's the added cost of extraction and production (Canadian oil sand, Pemex pumping in nitrogen to maintain reservoir pressure) that is realistically, as well as the increase in demand (China) that is responsible for driving the price of crude through the roof.

When more than 1,000,000 bpd of gasoline fail to reach market (because over 12% of our refining capcacity is offline), when 15% of our doemstic LNG supply is offline, and when 29% of our oil production is shut-in (all as of Sept. 30), yes, we are facing somewhat of a (short-term) fuel crisis.

When the President asks everyone to carpool, you might be facing an energy crisis.

So, unless you have discovered some unforeseen method skipping the whole drilling, extracting, refining, and shipping process, and have thus gained the ability to park your Hummer right on top of an oil field and fill 'er up "straight from the soruce," so to speak, then yes we are facing a bit of an energy crisis, and most likely will be for most, if not all, of the year...

Limitless supply.
It is manufactured out of nothing.
Limitless supply (Yeah, I know, I said it before, but after mentioning the word "manufacture" I wanted to say it again. These both came fro mthe editorial that has been submitted for our critical analysis).

Might anyone else see a problem with this? We suck it out and burn it up, and more is "manufactured" by the earth, in a "limitless supply"?

The Age of Cheap oil, Huh.. oil at our current state of human development, is getting expensive to extract. Currently Saudia Arabia spends U.S $1.00 to produce one barrel of oil, some countries, it causes upwards of 25.00 per barrel.(i may be incorrect). But the current oil consumption is like coc aine: we could never get enough of it.

lol the oil sands are one of the biggest oil deposits on the planet. Ive been to Fort Mcmurray, alberta and seen the mines. There is obvioulsly lots of money to be made or they wouldn't take to time to dig big holes.

Originally posted by thenewf102
lol the oil sands are one of the biggest oil deposits on the planet... There is obvioulsly lots of money to be made or they wouldn't take to time to dig big holes.

I think there is a basic misunderstanding of supply & demand here...

Yes, it has recently become profitable to explore the more costly methods of oil extraction (from places like the oil sands) only because petroleum products have become more expensive for the aforementioned reasons.

And I don't think one needs even a remedial comprehension of economics to understand it simply costs more to extract crude from grains of sand than it dues to pump it out straight from underground resevoirs...

it is not peak oil so much as it is the time required to bring new sources online. the amount of recoverable oil has been going up for years. our problem now is not peak oil but that it takes 5 to 10 years to bring new fields online and demand is out stripping our ability to do just that. billion barrel field in utah is an example. it will take several years to bring that up to full production.

we are not running out and we are not at peak. we are at the limits of technology to bring fields online fast enough

Originally posted by bigx01
it is not peak oil so much as it is the time required to bring new sources online. the amount of recoverable oil has been going up for years. our problem now is not peak oil but that it takes 5 to 10 years to bring new fields online and demand is out stripping our ability to do just that. billion barrel field in utah is an example. it will take several years to bring that up to full production.

we are not running out and we are not at peak. we are at the limits of technology to bring fields online fast enough

Peak oil is not about reserves, but about economical production.

The amount of recoverable oil has been going up, but we are using more than we are finding, from: www.enviroliteracy.org...

In a 1998 Scientific American article entitled "The End of Cheap Oil," petroleum geologists Colin J. Campbell and Jean H. Laherrère predicted that oil production will peak during the first decade of the 21st century. Their argument is based on several trends: 90 percent of all the oil in the Earth’s crust has been discovered; since 1970, more oil has been extracted than has been discovered; 4/5ths of oil comes from fields that were discovered before 1973; and the rates of extractions of these fields are declining. The discovery of “supergiant” fields began in the 1930s. The second largest oil field in the world, Kuwait al-Burgan, was found in 1938. The Saudi al-Ghawar field, the world’s largest oil field with 7 percent of all oil reserves in 2000, was discovered in 1948. No major new oil fields have been discovered in the last two decades. Campbell and Laherrère argue that predictions of potential new resources are overstated and that the global peak in oil production will occur within the next few years. Moreover, several promising new potential oil fields, such as Baltimore Canyon, have not yielded results. Global demand for oil continues to grow, and the number of automobiles on the road in Western nations and the developing world increases each year.

It does go onto say that reserves are increasing, but mainly due to 'revised estimates'

Mod Edit: Fixed Quote Tags.


[edit on 10/10/2005 by Mirthful Me]

peak oil is fun. such a great milestone for man's stupidity.
who remembers the 'energy crisis' of the seventies?
who knows what a 'cartel' is?
who knows what 'shill', 'mark' and 'grifter' is?

who remembers who first coined the term 'peak oil', and what their motivation was?

Originally posted by billybob
such a great milestone for man's stupidity.

Back in the 50's they all ridiculed the geophysicist Hubbert for predicting the US oil production would peak around the year 1970. He was only a few months off, with that prediction.

But go right ahead and stick your head in the sand, I really dont care.

Originally posted by Zion Mainframe

Originally posted by billybob
such a great milestone for man's stupidity.

Back in the 50's they all ridiculed the geophysicist Hubbert for predicting the US oil production would peak around the year 1970. He was only a few months off, with that prediction.

But go right ahead and stick your head in the sand, I really dont care.

not back far enough. it was the twenties.

anyway, there is a lot of conflicting information regarding oil supply and demand. why are YOU so sure you know the 'truth'? did you personally measure the reserves, calculate global daily usage, and extrapolate all your data into the future?
ye of too much faith.
so, if what your saying were the absolute truth, then we've known since the FIFTES at least that this was a problem. and then we went through a staged energy crisis in the seventies. did we stop using gas, and think of investing in better, and alternative mass transit(electric, for example)? no? did we at least legislate no more gas guzzlers? no(although there was SOME effeciency legislation passed).
what did we do instead?
WE SOLD POWER! MORE HORSEPOWER
and did we turn to the most efficient transport, trains and ships, for our long distance cartage? nope. the least. planes and transports.
i dunno. seems pretty frickin' DUMB to me.
and then, you have to ask yourself, "why? WHY didn't we do these things? what ideological group in power was making the decisions that foster not only MORE consumption, but LESS supply? WHO would benefit from that? only oil barons. you know, like george bush, or david rockerfeller, or sheik yer bhootie.

my hand spends some time in the sand, no doubt. i'm sure fifty yrs. is not near enough time to solve a well known problem.

[edit on 10-10-2005 by billybob]

Originally posted by billybob
peak oil is fun. such a great milestone for man's stupidity.
who remembers the 'energy crisis' of the seventies?
who knows what a 'cartel' is?
who knows what 'shill', 'mark' and 'grifter' is?

who remembers who first coined the term 'peak oil', and what their motivation was?

So if you are so "smart", when will we reach "Peak Oil", this month, the French Magazine "Le Monde" is showing in a graph, 4 scenarios:

USGS (Energy Information Adm.): 2037
Shell Oil: 2025
Pierre-René Bauquis, former scientific consellor for TotalFinaElf: 2013
ASPO (Association for the Study of Peak Oil): 2008

Since you know more that all these persons combined, what is your assessment for that Peak Oil date ?, why don't you choose never.

Matthew Simmons (Energy Banker) did calculated that the price of crude oil will have to reach $187 US per barrel before the world demand stop going up (I guess $10.00 US per gallon).

So again, when do you think that the offer will not meet the demand, because the demand will not slow down soon, more population, China, India, etc. and the offer is limited, unless you think that the whole earth is full of oil, and when this is empty, we can just extend a big umbrella into the cosmos and grab some more oil.

Originally posted by PopeyeFAFL

So if you are so "smart", when will we reach "Peak Oil", this month, the French Magazine "Le Monde" is showing in a graph, 4 scenarios:

USGS (Energy Information Adm.): 2037
Shell Oil: 2025
Pierre-René Bauquis, former scientific consellor for TotalFinaElf: 2013
ASPO (Association for the Study of Peak Oil): 2008

Since you know more that all these persons combined, what is your assessment for that Peak Oil date ?, why don't you choose never.

Matthew Simmons (Energy Banker) did calculated that the price of crude oil will have to reach $187 US per barrel before the world demand stop going up (I guess $10.00 US per gallon).

i AM smart. that's why i realise that CONSERVATION is the first step, and SWITCHING to alternative infrastructures and energy sources are the next.
i AM smart, in that i realise that the information enviroment is becoming very lazy. all cut and paste. peak oil COULD be true, but i'm not falling for any info-fads today or tomorrow. i reached 'peak hype' a long time ago.
i AM smart to own a good bicycle.
i said i don't believe in peak oil(as an immediate threat, anyway), and you're asking me to tell you when it will happen. funny.

i'm telling you that the oil supply is controlled by a cartel(noone even tries to hide this, lol), and you're quoting expert knowledge from a grifter.

[edit on 10-10-2005 by billybob]

Peak oil who benefits? That's the question? Each and everyone of us who are ranting on this thread that i originated, are not currently benefiting from it, actually this myth is harming us economically in more ways than one, with inflation and that other sort of things. I am not too really worried about gas prices though....


Anyway, the purpose of this thread is to highlight the possibility, if crude oil has limitless supply, and we are being taken for a ride? maybe?

The term Peak Oil is so vague it can mean anything

Originally posted by crusader

The term Peak Oil is so vague it can mean anything

No it doesn't, it simply means when we reach 50% of what there is (complete endowment = already used up + proven known reserves), after that no matter how hard you try, the effort you put in it, you produce less every passing year.

Not vague at all (you can argue on the number, but the concept is not vague).

Wow, this topic sure generated a lot of...enthusiam!

The responses here remind me of hard-core atheists and deeply devout people debating religion; like either side is trying to attack a fundamental belief of the other.

Anyway, thanks for the post crusader, it was a very interesting read and has already started me trying to find more information on these cases and trying to find what scientific evidence exists for either side on how oil is/was created. If I manage to come up with anything that seems to be worthwhile and not yet brought up, I'll be sure to post it here.

Originally posted by kilcoo316

Peak oil is not about reserves, but about economical production.



[edit on 10/10/2005 by Mirthful Me]

no peak oil is about when the oil we get out of the ground starts to decline. take the north slope in alaska. it peaked in the mid 90's at 2 mm bbls a day and is now below 1mm bbls.

like i said we are not at peak oil yet. what we are at is the ability to continue to bring more production online compared to the increase in consumption. it takes longer to bring new production online than the increase in consumption.

the first oil from alaska came through the pipline in 1977. 20 years later it peaked there's plenty of reserves there it will just take more than overnight to drill, put pumping equipment in, and place new pipline to the exsiting one.

where i work, we have continued to increase syn crude from alberta but it will still take several more years to reach peak production in alberta.