Hurricane Otis Heads Towards Arizona

(click image for animation loop)

Tropical Storm Otis soon to be a hurricane will reach the central Baja California Peninsula early next week and head across the Gulf of California on it's way to Arizona.

012HR VT 30/1200Z 20.8N 110.5W 65 KT
024HR VT 01/0000Z 21.6N 111.4W 75 KT HURRICANE
036HR VT 01/1200Z 22.2N 112.0W 80 KT
048HR VT 02/0000Z 22.7N 112.4W 75 KT
072HR VT 03/0000Z 24.5N 113.5W 65 KT
096HR VT 04/0000Z 26.5N 114.0W 50 KT
120HR VT 05/0000Z 29.5N 114.0W 35 KT...INLAND

OTIS HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED IN INFRARED IMAGERY THIS EVENING...WITH CONVECTION NOW WRAPPING MOST OF THE WAY AROUND THE CENTER AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WARM SPOT. nhc.noaa.gov


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(click image to enlarge)

More images here:
www.ssd.noaa.gov...
www.cira.colostate.edu...
www.atmo.arizona.edu...


Shall storm history repeat?
Hurricane Nora 16-26 September 1997
•About 350 to 400 people were made homeless by floodwaters in the town of Arroyo de Santa Catarina in northern Baja California.

•Damage totals in the United States are incomplete at this time but media summaries of Nora included a loss to agriculture preliminarily estimated at several hundred million dollars. About a $30 to 40 million loss to lemon trees was estimated.

•In Somerton, AZ, 10 miles south of Yuma, damage to mobile homes and flooding was reported. About 12,000 people lost power in Yuma.

•In California, about 125,000 customers lost power in the Los Angeles area with scattered, much smaller outages elsewhere. In San Diego, El Centro, Palm Springs and Indio, street flooding was reported. Winds knocked down about 16 power poles in Seeley. nhc.noaa.gov



Stay tuned in the coming days to see if Otis
checks himself into Sheriff Joe Arpaio's jail.

Factoid: Otis's wife was named Rita, btw.

Otis Opens an Eye

TROPICAL STORM OTIS INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 8A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM PDT THU SEP 29 2005

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND OTIS IS FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE ON FRIDAY. NHC

Cabo San Lucas, Mexico Radar

external image
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More Mexico radar: smn.cna.gob.mx...



More data here: www.nrlmry.navy.mil...

TS Otis is a already a hurricane, NHC is lagging with their intensity forecast.

UW-CIMSS Automated Satellite-Based
Advanced Objective Dvorak Technique (AODT)

2005SEP30 0730UTC Hurricane Otis
dvorak T#:4.3 pressure 984.6mb susatined winds:74.5knt

cimss.ssec.wisc.edu...

[edit on 30-9-2005 by Regenmacher]

HURRICANE OTIS ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT FRI SEP 30 2005

...OTIS BECOMES A HURRICANE....

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...FROM SANTA
FE SOUTHWARD ON THE PACIFIC COAST AND FROM LA PAZ SOUTHWARD ON THE
GULF OF CALIFORNIA COAST. NHC

It's official now, Otis is a hurricane.

Baja, Sonora Mexico and the US Southwest residents should keep watch on Otis: there is a severe flooding potential since most the region is arid desert and over an inch of rain can cause flash flooding.




[edit on 30-9-2005 by Regenmacher]

Wow, with everyone paying attention to possible systems in the Atlantic/Carribean, Otis kind of snuck in out of nowhere. Good storm reporting!

Yes DM, the East Pacific hurricanes don't get noticed much since all eyes are on the Atlantic. In this case, it's rare to see a Pacific hurricane head into Desert Southwest. Twenty percent of the nation's produce grows in the San Joaquin Valley and Arizona, and too much rain will effect nationwide prices...like paying $3/lb for tomatoes or lettuce.



Hurricane Otis
8 AM PDT FRI SEP 30 2005

THE EYE HAS BECOME CLOUD-COVERED IN VISIBLE IMAGERY... BUT THE EYE
STRUCTURE HAS CONTINUED TO IMPROVE BASED ON RECENT MICROWAVE
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RADAR DATA FROM CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO.

SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS
SINCE OTIS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER 28C OR WARMER SSTS AND THE
VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO REMAIN 5 KT OR LESS. NHC





More Info on Otis here:
Accuweather
National Hurricane Center
Joint Typhoon Warning Center
NRL Monterey Marine Meteorology
Baja Insider


(click to enlarge)

"Otis"???

What the hell's next? Hurricane Billy Bob?

Odd, the NHC doesn't seem to have any of the usual numbers here, like oh...I don't know...WIND SPEED!

Good catch Regenmacher. I thought this was some kind of joke or play-on-words post, without thinking of the geography at first. Now, how many Katrina survivors that got relocated into Ophelia's and/or Rita's path relocated to Phoenix? That's when you know it's about time to just give up and ride the storm out...

They mention windspeed but the graphic images mention them too so I didn't paste all the numbers in (links have the data). No recon or hurricane hunters on this side of the pond either.

In any event here's the latest discussion:

HURRICANE OTIS DISCUSSION NUMBER 11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT FRI SEP 30 2005

THE EYE HAS BECOME MUCH BETTER DEFINED IN BOTH VISIBLE AND INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY... AND ALSO IN RADAR DATA FROM CABO SAN LUCAS
MEXICO. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 75 KT IS BASED ON A BLEND OF
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 77 KT FROM TAFB... 90 KT FROM
SAB... 77 KT FROM AFWA... AND A 30/1059Z UW-CIMSS AMSU INTENSITY
ESTIMATE OF 975 MB AND 80 KT. THE MOST RECENT RAW ODT VALUES HAVE
INCREASED SHARPLY TO T5.4/99 KT. NHC



North American monsoon abruptly ended on that last bout of solar activity, so I suspect a late fall this year for the southwest. The rain party has restarted.

Those in Phoenix should be okay...forecasting 2-4 inches, would be moderate flooding and nothing like Katrina's depth. No storm surge in the desert.





[edit on 30-9-2005 by Regenmacher]

Regenmacher
Good find, who would even of thought about this part of the world having this head their way. I did find out that October is their Hurricane season in tha Baja region. I found this ocean temp map and thought it might help.If Otis goes over Cabo it will stay over the very warm water shown.


I was in Cabo last year. They only rarely have a hurricane. They are not prepared for these. Most of the resturants do not have roofs just open area with tables and chairs. Alot of poor construction but beautiful place to go on vacation.

[edit on 30-9-2005 by Harry55]

Originally posted by Harry55
I was in Cabo last year. They only rarely have a hurricane. They are not prepared for these. Most of the resturants do not have roofs just open area with tables and chairs. Alot of poor construction but beautiful place to go on vacation.

I agree, considering most the peninsula is just sand/rock and can't handle a lot of precipitation. Nice Baja satellite image here, so the others can see what they mean by rough arid desert terrain: click for image

I been to Baja several times too and cheap way to get your fill of deep sea fishing. It's like an extension suburb of San Diego to me, cept Tijuana which is a nasty border town....have to go past Rosarita.

Hurricane Otis Strengthens, Nears Baja
Officials closed the port in Cabo San Lucas to all navigation and began evacuating people from endangered neighborhoods to four shelters. The Hurricane Center and it said that the storm's outer bands could bring up to 4 inches of rain over the southern end of the peninsula by late Friday. newsday

Well maybe this one will bring the Okla. Panhandle a rain.

The wheat needs a drink!

Roper

Arizona needs a serious drink too!

CLIMATE...TUCSON WILL FINISH THE MONTH OF SEPTEMBER AS THE 12TH
DRIEST ON RECORD...WITH ONLY SIX-HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH /0.06"/ OF
RAINFALL OBSERVED. THE MONSOON SEASON (6/15 - 9/30) RAINFALL OF
5.31" WILL END UP THREE-QUARTERS OF AN INCH BELOW THE NORMAL OF 6.06"
www.wrh.noaa.gov...

THE OUTLOOK FOR OTIS DURING THE EXTENDED IS FOR IT TO BE A
DEPRESSION CENTERED NEAR THE MEXICAN BORDER SOUTHWEST OF TUCSON BY
MIDDAY TUESDAY. THIS FORECAST...FROM THE TROPICAL PREDICTION
CENTER...WILL UNDOUBTEDLY CHANGE. IT WOULD BE IMPRESSIVE IF THE
CIRCULATION STILL HAD PEAK SUSTAINED WINDS OF 25 KNOTS AT THAT POINT
LET ALONE IF IT ACTUALLY TRACKED TO THAT LOCATION.
www.storm2k.org...

Here's the irony: Out west they welcome hurricane mositure, back east they wish they never had any.

Here is another News Paper Report : Associated Press 15 Minutes Ago

Part of the Story :

Mayor Luis Armando Diaz led a contingent of police officers going door to door and asking residents to leave the outskirts of Cabo San Lucas, where many poor families live in flimsy shacks.

Only a few dozen people had left their homes, but authorities hoped to move out as many as 1,000 by late evening. Five shelters were opened.


Like I said earlier the people there do not take them serious.

Roper, this story does report you should get your rain you wished for.

This is so strange to see a hurricane over there! I would think the wind in the southwest might be more of a concern than the rain. I'll be watching this thread.

Hurricane Cletus is next!

I was talking to my son last week about these storms in the Atlantic and got on the Pacific storms and told him that every once in a while one will hit California. So just call me a Prophet.

Roper (not a Prophet)

Here's what happens when the winds come. It's called a haboob,
and Arizona has them every monsoon season. Usually they don't do much damage,
cept they can trigger asthma attacks or lung infections like "Valley Fever".



Flooding is the worst of hazards to deserts because of the caliche in the soil,
which means the ground doesn't soak up moisture.

This was a sad event this year for Arizona's monsoon season:

Searchers found the body of a seven year old girl swept away in flooding in the Phoenix-area. Marissa Reyes and her family were at home near Cave Creek when the storm hit late Tuesday afternoon. They were literally running for higher ground when a wall of water caught up with them.

A ranch worker clinging to a tree, grabbed Marissa's hand, but the rushing water pulled her away. Crews found her body about a mile and a half from where she was last seen.

Yeah, I've lived nearly half my life in the desert southwest. The monsoons where I am now in the high desert are fine, but in Phoenix, I've left work early and almost floated home because the water does not soak into the ground! It's scary!

That's a pretty huge dust devil! Never seen any like that, thankfully!

Thanks for that info.

I dont mean to sling political mud here but, is anyone starting to see a pattern here?

1.Poor folks devistated and next to wiped out
2.Gas Prices soar
3.and now possible threat to produce with hurricane otis? Vegetable prices could soar?

It isn't just silly Pravda or Russian urban legends about weather modification, it is in the US senate ,congress committee on science.
109th CONGRESS

1st Session

IN THE HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES
H. R. 2995
To establish the Weather Modification Operations and Research Board, and for other purposes.
June 20, 2005
Mr. UDALL of Colorado introduced the following bill; which was referred to the Committee on Science
www.govtrack.us...

S.517
Title: A bill to establish a Weather Modification Operations and Research Board, and for other purposes.
Sponsor: Sen Hutchison, Kay Bailey [TX] (introduced 3/3/2005) Cosponsors (None)
Related Bills: H.R.2995
www.google.com...

section4
Be it enacted by the Senate and House of Representatives of the United States of America in Congress assembled,

4) WEATHER MODIFICATION- The term `weather modification' means changing or controlling, or attempting to change or control, by artificial methods the natural development of atmospheric cloud forms or precipitation forms which occur in the troposphere.




New legislation not designed to foster pleasant or productive weather, but planned as tool of weaponized weather control, already well tested and in use since 1976. Amateur and hostile weather-makers alike likely to lose their technology to the military.
by Mary-Sue Haliburton
Pure Energy Systems News
Copyright © 2005
www.pureenergysystems.com...


Meanwhile we have Capn Smirk on tv waving at the press on the Whitehouse Lawn almost as if he is saying "they will never catch on" ...
Bush administration to examine new measures against Syria
news.yahoo.com...

We have political figures passing the buck of responsibility from state to federal and back to local and back to state and back to federal again. Same response from all of them: "There will be a time and place to ask Why, When, If or a Committee is being assembled...yadda yadda.

Originally posted by Harry55
Like I said earlier the people there do not take them serious.

Different mindset down there, they leave and they may lose what little they have to the federales, policia or banditos...and for perhaps some, death is a welcome release. Losing your farm animals to corrupt officials isn't what they have in mind, hurricane or not.

If I told a Mexican peasant he could die, I would most likely get a "“que sera, sera..." and a wink for a reposnse. Reminds me when I asked a Huichol elder what time did the meeting start, he said, "Whenever we get there, señor."


Throw in some machismo too, and they rather fight than run.

Caliche will set up like concrete! Then get slicker than grease. All of our county roads are bedded with caliche, I tell the down States to not travel these roads fast after a little rain.

I have some soft deposits of caliche and in some places it is as hard as steel.

These types of soil will hold the moisture quite well but when dry will crack wide open and deep.

Roper