Severe Geomagnetic Storm Research Project:

More than 11 acres of land collapsed into the ocean at Kilauea Volcano in Hawai on August 26-27
Since August, 27 - lava has refilled 1.7 Ha. of the collapsed area. Several streams of lava pouring into the water of the East Cae Apki Delta.


Further information on the Kilauea Volcano:
www.volcanolive.com...

09-05-05
Geomagnetic field is currently at a G1 level
Space weather for the past 24 hours has been minor.

G1 effects:
•Power systems: weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
•Spacecraft operations: minor impact on satellite operations possible.
•Other systems: migratory animals are affected at this and higher levels;
aurora is commonly visible at high latitudes (northern Michigan and Maine)

Solar Observations:
Solar wind speed ranged between 55 and 893 (all day average 698) km/sec under the influence of a high speed stream from CH185. . A CME was observed over the west limbs following a long duration C2 event in region 10803 during the afternoon on September 4.

Solar Forecast:
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to active on September 5 and quiet to unsettled on September 6. Effects from CH186 are possible on September 7-8 with some unsettled to active intervals likely.

Tropical Weather:
The Bahamas is still being monitored for the possibility of tropical cyclone formation. There is a trough of low pressure in the area that has been producing strong storms over Florida and off shore waters. While this area sits over warm sea surface temperatures or (SST's), the possibility of a tropical cyclone forming increases.

Super typhoom Nabi is about to make landfall in southern Japan. A Category Four typhoon at 115kts sustained winds - 927mb pressure.

Quake Swarm:
09-01-05: A series of earthquakes - some above magnitude 4.0 - are shaking near the southeast shore of the Salton Sea in an area between two major faults about 86 miles from Palm Springs. Seems to have quieted down some, but listing it here to keep an eye on.
earthquake.usgs.gov...

2005/09/04 23:58 M 5.9 CELEBES SEA Z=424km 2.99N 123.03E


A magnitude 5.9 earthquake IN CELEBES SEA has occurred at:
2.99N 123.03E Depth 424km Sun Sep 4 23:58:33 2005 UTC

This information is provided by the USGS
National Earthquake Information Center.

These parameters are preliminary and subject to revision.

For any additional information, please visit:
earthquake.usgs.gov... .

A 3.7 Quake has taken place 2 km (1 miles) E (85°) from Obsidian Butte, CA
in Southern California.

earthquake.usgs.gov...

Most interesting in relation with Indy´s posts:
www.abovetopsecret.com...

Background info:

THE SUN AND SUNSPOTS
Can an increase or decrease in sunspot activity affect the Earth's climate?

One interesting aspect of solar cycles is that the sun went through a period of sunspot inactivity from about 1645 to 1715. This period of sunspot minima is called the Maunder Minimum. Sunspots were measured during this timeframe, although the more detailed, daily measurements began in 1749. The "Little Ice Age" occurred over parts of Earth during the Maunder Minimum.

SOLAR ACTIVITY:
A DOMINANT FACTOR IN CLIMATE DYNAMICS

The most convincing argument yet, supporting a strong impact of the sun’s activity on climate change, is a direct connection between cloud coverage and cosmic rays, discovered by H. Svensmark and E. Friis-Christensen [111] in 1996. It is shown in Figure 6. Clouds have a hundred times stronger effect on weather and climate than carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. Even if the atmosphere’s CO2 content doubled, its effect would be cancelled out if the cloud cover expanded by 1%, as shown by H. E. Landsberg [53]. Svensmark’s and Friis-Christensen’s result is therefore of great importance.

Long-Range Forecast of U.S. Drought Based on Solar Activity

So, there is hope of a more detailed cause and effect explanation as soon as the still rudimentary theories of solar activity and climate change reach a more mature stage of development. Anyway, the correct forecast of the U.S. drought beginning in 1999 and a dozen of further successful climate forecasts, exclusively based on solar activity, show already now that the IPCC’s claim that there has only been a negligible solar effect on climate change in recent decades is not tenable. Ironically, just drought, the greatest threat attributed to alleged man-made global warming, has turned out to be regulated by variations in the sun’s eruptional activity.

US drought monitor:
www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov...
www.drought.unl.edu...

Global Warming Explained
The solar constant isn't constant. The sun is a variable star.

Based on many different indicators from widely varying sources, it has been found that our sun, a variable star, is a major and controlling influence on the extent and rate of long- and short-term climate changes affecting Earth.



Hurricane Katrina linked?
NOAA ISSUES SPACE WEATHER WARNING
(large detailed article here)
Aug. 24, 2005 — Forecasters at the NOAA Space Environment Center in Boulder, Colo., observed an extreme—G5 on the NOAA space weather scales—geomagnetic storm, that began on August 24 at 2:12 a.m. EDT. Solar flares on August 22 produced minor to moderate radio blackouts (R1 and R2) and a moderate radiation storm (S2). Also, two large Earth-directed coronal mass ejections occurred on August 22, which resulted in today's extreme geomagnetic storming. The most intense period of geomagnetic storming occurred between 4:00 a.m. and 7:00 a.m. EDT on Wednesday.

EVENTS:

[color=#CC0000]C-CLASS FLARE

C2.8 solar flare off the southwest limb, will have minor geo-effects.
www.lmsal.com...

Going to take a stab at a forecast saying a tropical system will develop off of east Africa-Atlantic (3 days approx), due to the C2.8's x-ray flux being directed in the region at that time it erupted. Also keep an eyeball on the Bahamas.

Let's see if I am full of solar gas or not.

orca.rsmas.miami.edu...

[edit on 5-9-2005 by Regenmacher]

EARTHQUAKE Magnitude 6.1 - TAIWAN REGION
2005 September 6 01:16:04 UTC

The Earthquake maybe is an after effect of the ground being saturated by super typhoon Tamil.
earthquake.usgs.gov...

Super typhoon Tamil before it makes landfall in Taiwan.


_______________________________________

Tropical Storm Nate forms in Atlantic
30kts-1007mb No threat to land at this time.

Tropical Storm Nate blossoms in the mid-Atlantic


www.nhc.noaa.gov...

_______________________________________

Scientists monitor bulging ground near South Sister

BEND, Ore. - A recent survey of a bulge that covers about 100 square miles near the South Sister indicates the area is still growing, suggesting it could be another volcano in the making or a major shift of molten rock under the center of the Cascade Range.

Will volcano be the next disaster? Are we prepared for it?

Earth scientists and volcanologists are examining whether the series of earthquakes that rocked the Sumatra in Indonesia for the last one year would lead to volcanic eruption in the region and government preparedness in such eventuality.

This phenomenon is true in all subduction zones, the scientists said. The rate of subduction during pre-December 2004 earthquake was estimated at 6.7 cm per year while it was estimated more than 6.7 cm per year after December, 2004 earthquake, Chandrasekharama said.


earthquake.usgs.gov...

[edit on 6-9-2005 by Regenmacher]

A 6.1 Earthquake has taken place in the region of Taiwan
2005 September 6 at 01:16:04 UTC
Depth: 45,5 Km (28,3 miles)
(Data not reviewed by seismologist)


earthquake.usgs.gov...

2005 September 6, Northern Alaska, Earthquake 5.2
07:16:56 UTC

Depth: 20 Km (6,2 miles)

earthquake.usgs.gov...


Increased activity of stronger earthquakes.

[color=#CC0000]Tropical Depression SIXTEEN

Forecast track

click to enlarge image



AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM NORTH OF JUPITER NORTHWARD TO
TITUSVILLE INCLUDING MERRITT ISLAND...AND THE GOVERNMENT OF THE
BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR GRAND BAHAMA...
THE ABACOS AND BIMINI.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

more here:
www.nhc.noaa.gov...
www.nrlmry.navy.mil...
www.abovetopsecret.com...

Ophelia may reach hurricane status before landfall, all areas in the Bahamas, eastern Florida and Georgia should keep aware of this storm.





Guess my forecast was some what on key, that's 2 systems that formed since the c-class flare.

2005/09/06 16:05:00 long duration C1.6 solar flare
www.lmsal.com...

[edit on 6-9-2005 by Regenmacher]

Around the same time that solar C Flares have increased (as mentioned by Regenmacher), this 2 earthquakes have taken place:

2005/09/05 07:37 M 6.2 PACIFIC-ANTARCTIC RIDGE Z= 10km 56.39S 142.27W

A magnitude 6.2 earthquake IN PACIFIC-ANTARCTIC RIDGE has occurred at:
56.39S 142.27W Depth 10km Mon Sep 5 07:37:30 2005 UTC
earthquake.usgs.gov...


2005/09/05 07:37 M 5.8 PACIFIC-ANTARCTIC RIDGE Z= 10km 56.40S 142.26W

A magnitude 5.8 earthquake IN PACIFIC-ANTARCTIC RIDGE has occurred at:
56.40S 142.26W Depth 10km Mon Sep 5 07:37:30 2005 UTC

Both have been provided by the USGS
National Earthquake Information Center.
These parameters are preliminary and subject to revision.

2005/09/06 11:00 M 5.6 NIAS REGION, INDONESIA Z= 30km 0.07N 97.61E

A magnitude 5.6 earthquake IN THE NIAS REGION, INDONESIA has occurred at:
0.07N 97.61E Depth 30km Tue Sep 6 11:00:49 2005 UTC

This information is provided by the USGS
National Earthquake Information Center.
These parameters are preliminary and subject to revision.

earthquake.usgs.gov...

Product: Geophysical Alert Message wwv.txt
Issued: 2005 Sep 06 2106 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Environment Center
#
# Geophysical Alert Message
#
Solar-terrestrial indices for 06 September follow.
Solar flux 83 and estimated mid-latitude A-Index 11.
The mid-latitude K-index at 2100 UTC on 06 September was 3 (33 nT).

Space weather for the past 24 hours has been minor.
Radio blackouts reaching the R1 level occurred.

Space weather for the next 24 hours is expected to be minor.
Radio blackouts reaching the R1 level are expected.

Level R1 - Radio Blackout
HF Radio: Weak or minor degradation of HF radio communication on sunlit side, occasional loss of radio contact.

Navigation: Low-frequency navigation signals degraded for brief intervals.

[color=#CC0000]M-Class Flare
2005/09/06 19:20:00 M1.4
www.lmsal.com...

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 249 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Sep 2005

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05/2100Z
to 06/2100Z: Solar activity levels increased to moderate this
period. A long duration M1 flare and an associated CME was in
progress on the southeast limb at the time of this issue. The likely
source of this event is old active Region 798 (S09, L=217), which is
expected to rotate into view on 07 Sep. Old Region 798 was
responsible for significant flare activity during its last transit
across the visible disk, and was the likely source of several
farside CMEs during the past two weeks. Region 805 (S12W59), the
only active region with sunspots on the visible disk, remained quiet
this period.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be
moderate to high. Old Region 798 is rotating onto the visible disk
near S09, and is expected to significantly increase solar activity
levels.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. The greater than 2 MeV
electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels again
today.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to remain at quiet to unsettled levels on 07 and 08 Sep.
Isolated active periods are possible on 09 Sep due to a high speed
coronal hole stream.

[edit on 6-9-2005 by Regenmacher]

Tropical Storm 15W forms in West Pacific.
Target: Hong Kong

120 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 22.6N 115.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT



www.npmoc.navy.mil...

That's 3 tropical systems in the last 2 days.
2 C-class flares and one M-class flare in last 3 days.
sec.noaa.gov...

[edit on 6-9-2005 by Regenmacher]

Solar Flares:

2005/09/07 09:59:00 C2.3
2005/09/07 11:19:00 C2.4

Solar Forecast:

The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled on September 7 and quiet to active on September 8-9 due to effects from CH186. Quiet conditions are likely on September 10-11 becoming quiet to active on September 12-13 when a high speed stream from CH187 reaches Earth.

R1 radio blackout still in effect (see above)

Tropical Weather:

TD #16 intensifies and becomes TS Ophelia, threatening Florida.
TS #15W Khanun track changes and heads for Tawain.
TS Nate and Maria still heading out to the Northern Atlantic, maritime threats.


[edit on 7-9-2005 by Regenmacher]

We also have volcanic activity:

Kamchatka volcano starts erupting

Mount Shevutich, a volcano on Russia's far-eastern Kamchatka Peninsula, is spewing gas and ash to heights of up to 5,000 feet, a member of a local research team said Wednesday.

The expert said satellite images that had been provided by the Alaska Volcano Observatory showed clear signs of a thermal anomaly in the area.

According to the Kamchatka branch of a federal body responsible for monitoring seismic activity, residents of the nearby regions might face ashfall and mud slides from the slope of Mt. Shiveluch. Air traffic in the vicinity might also be endangered.

[color=#CC0000]X17 X-CLASS FLARE
www.lmsal.com...

R4 Radio Blackout-Severe
HF Radio: : HF radio communication blackout on most of the sunlit side of Earth for one to two hours. HF radio contact lost during this time.

Navigation: Outages of low-frequency navigation signals cause increased error in positioning for one to two hours. Minor disruptions of satellite navigation possible on the sunlit side of Earth.
_______________________________

Old region 10798 produced one of the largest flare ever recorded today at 17:40 UTC. GOES Xray sensors displayed signs of saturation. While GOES12 has this as an X17 flare the peak was likely close to X20. Previous CMEs from this region have been very fast. Although this occurred at the southeast limb, a significant sideways impact at Earth could occur as early as before midnight tomorrow, although more likely on September 9. Active to severe geomagnetic storming is possible.

Incoming proton storm:
sec.noaa.gov...

_______________________________

CURRENT TOTAL GLOBAL ELECTRON DENSITY MAP

www.tvcomm.co.uk...
_______________________________

Record-setting Solar Flares
Ranking Day/Month/Year X-Ray Class

01 04/11/03 X28.0
02 02/04/01 X20.0
02 16/08/89 X20.0
03 28/10/03 X17.2
04 06/03/89 X15.0
04 11/07/78 X15.0
05 15/04/01 X14.4
06 24/04/84 X13.0
06 19/10/89 X13.0
07 15/12/82 X12.9
08 06/06/82 X12.0
08 01/06/91 X12.0
08 04/06/91 X12.0
08 06/06/91 X12.0
08 11/06/91 X12.0
08 15/06/91 X12.0
09 17/12/82 X10.1
09 20/05/84 X10.1
10 29/10/03 X10.0
10 25/01/91 X10.0
10 09/06/91 X10.0
11 09/07/82 X 9.8
11 29/09/89 X 9.8
12 22/03/91 X 9.4
12 06/11/97 X 9.4
13 24/05/90 X 9.3
14 06/11/80 X 9.0
14 02/11/92 X 9.0

[edit on 7-9-2005 by Regenmacher]

Following the previous post of Regenmacher, we will start posting all major negative events taken place on earth from the date of the solar storm, in order to check if there is any increase.


Please, if you do not belong to this Research Project and have important information to share with us, send it to me by U2U.
Thank you.

BARCELONA, GERONA & BALEARES (SPAIN) affected by heavy storms, beams, whirlwinds, hail and TORNADOS.

FIRE Brigade rescued more than 100 people in Barcelona due to the heavy rains.
STORMS, BEAMS, WHIRLWINDS OF WATER, HAIL & WIND

The heavy rain in Barcelona were the heaviest in the past 10 years.

Floodings in groundfloors, undergrounds, garages, roads, railway stations, etc. Even the airport suffered delayed flights.

Power failure caused by the high number of beams.

The severe storm caused delays in flights taking off and arriving to the Airport of Palma. Heavy beams and storm obliged AENA to start the “Storm Guidelines”, which forbids airplanes to fuel while beams are falling close to the airport.
Floodings, etc.


September the 7th.

2 tornados obliged to close the Airport of El Prat in Barcelona.
BARCELONA.- Two tornados obliged to close the Airport for 1 hour. After passing from South to North through the taking off & landing area. An empty airplane was moved by the tornado 180º & another tornado, full of passangers, was lifted 300 metres up before hitting the ground. (No injuries)


September, the 8th.

Up to now, (starting on Monday) Cataluña had 12 tornados & 36.400 beams due to the severe storms.

The worst
Tornados of Wednesday, the 7th & Thursday, the 8th have been the worst, because of passing through towns where people were not warned about these events.

The wind of these tornados reached the 200 Km./h.

Trucks flight and landed metres away, roofs were flown away, walls, vehicles, etc.

A moderate earthquake occurred at 11:27:17 (UTC) on Thursday, September 8, 2005. The magnitude 5.1 event has been located in SWITZERLAND. (This event has been reviewed by a seismologist.)

earthquake.usgs.gov...

5.7 Molucca Sea

A moderate earthquake occurred at 04:10:10 (UTC) on Thursday, September 8, 2005. The magnitude 5.7 event has been located in the MOLUCCA SEA. The hypocentral depth was estimated to be 42 km (26 miles). (This event has been reviewed by a seismologist.)
earthquake.usgs.gov...

4.8 Sulawesi, Indonesia

A light earthquake occurred at 19:20:40 (UTC) on Wednesday, September 7, 2005. The magnitude 4.8 event has been located in SULAWESI, INDONESIA. The hypocentral depth was estimated to be 76 km (47 miles). (This event has been reviewed by a seismologist.)
earthquake.usgs.gov...

4.2 Unimak Island - Alaska

A light earthquake occurred at 08:25:05 (UTC) on Thursday, September 8, 2005. The magnitude 4.2 event has been located in the UNIMAK ISLAND REGION, ALASKA. (This event has been reviewed by a seismologist.)
earthquake.usgs.gov...

& as on previous weeks, we still have several light and micro earthquakes in Southern and Central California, as well as in Alaska.