The world may run out of time to create alternatives before depletion of oil.

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PETTEN, Netherlands (Reuters) - The world could run out of time to develop cleaner alternatives to oil and other fossil fuels before depletion drives prices through the roof, a leading Dutch energy researcher said on Thursday.

Ton Hoff, manager of the Energy Research Center of the Netherlands, said it could take decades to make alternatives affordable to the point where they can be used widely, although high oil prices were already stimulating such research.

"If we run out of fossil fuels -- by the time the oil price hits 100 dollars or plus, people will be screaming for alternatives, but whether they will be available at that moment of time -- that's my biggest worry," Hoff said.

"That's why we need to use fossil fuels in a more efficient way to have some more time to develop these alternatives up to a level where the robustness is guaranteed and their price has come down ... This could take decades for some technologies."

Stubbornly high oil prices have renewed worldwide interest in sustainable energy sources, such as solar, wind and biomass as well as biofuels.

But the world currently covers just some two percent of its energy needs with renewables as high costs and mixed policy initiatives hinder a wide-spread usage.

"The high oil price makes people at least think about alternatives ... For us it's a definitely a stimulus to work even harder than before," Hoff said.

i think the high prices helps get our attention to see that the prices right now is the tip of the iceberg to the coming higher prices like 100 to 150 dollars a barrel. this also helps us need to be more aware and to get our butts off to seek alternatives now instead of waiting for the last minute by saying we will seek alternatives next year or 10 years from now. instead we should be starting right now or long time ago. right now all we have are just suggestions on alternatives instead of actually implementing them to see if the alternatives are working and efficient.

Very true, I hope and pray that some nerd in an R&D lab somewhere is holding onto a solution to the oil problem, most likely waiting for the prices to peak then poof! A new source of energy... me and my happy thoughts... lets hope I'm right and we really arn't as screwed as I think we are....

I don't think we're screwed considering that we have a lot of technology already... you know like ethanol and stuff. There is even a technology that turns the output of using hte gas into water.

We will never run out of oil, it will get far to expensive to use the stuff before that happens.

We will never run out of oil, it will get far to expensive to use the stuff before that happens.

Very true, but that's not the point. We should have been looking for alternatives a long time ago. As oil gets more expensive and scarce the harder it will be to put the time, manpower, and energy into developing useful alternatives.

Judging by peoples reactions to $2.55 a gallon, I would say now is the time, if you are a politician or business man, to tell your plan. So, who's it gonna be?

We did the same thing with Y2K. Created a problem due to shortsightedness then panicked and fixed it at the last minute. It will probably turn out the same in this case, as the Elite want to protect their carefully nurtured cash cow the middle class. Without them they elite would be nothing on the world stage but I digress.

Peak Oil is very similiar to Y2K when talking about the Psychology of the sheep. Yes Humans are very sheeplike, except we call it Partisanship. We as humans only miss something when it's gone or is still their but just out of reach save for the rich who can afford to roll around in SUV's. Is it the end of the World? Uhh even though we rely on it waaay too much in just about every facet of our lives there are alternatives, we have a global communication system to spread the knowledge of the alternatives that exist. When we get to 100 + $ a barrel people will start listening. We are a highly advances species, when properly motivated we can accomplish great feats(as well as horrible feats as well)

I'm sorry but I won't buy into the "We can't do anything about it" mentality.

Here's a link you might find interesting

www.worldchanging.com...

[edit on 19-8-2005 by sardion2000]

[edit on 19-8-2005 by sardion2000]

Running out of oil is not such a bad thing, what we had before oil?

You know the oil dependency is just but a very new concept not even a hundred years old.

As with everything we humans will adapt to the new challenge, perhaps walking will do a lot good to a lot of people.

Originally posted by marg6043
Running out of oil is not such a bad thing, what we had before oil?

not such a bad thing!!!!! my God marg, wat would happened to all those innocent victims who are hurt from major accidents or shot by sombody and they need to get to the hospital like really quick. the methods of transportation are usually the helos and the ambulances.

Originally posted by deltaboy

the methods of transportation are usually the helos and the ambulances.

You know Deltaboy I see your concern but actually is still places in this earth that transportation is still done by donkey or mule.

I tell you what we will adapt, plain and simple, the majority of accidents that are cause by cars will be eliminated.

I am not that old you know, but when I was a child the Doctor used to come to the house.

And we all survived to tell the stories, my grandfather die of 102 and it was not even hospitals nearby when he was a child.

Modern Generations are growing with dependency, but remember before oil, gas,electricity and computers, the world was still going on.

Originally posted by marg6043

Originally posted by deltaboy

the methods of transportation are usually the helos and the ambulances.

You know Deltaboy I see your concern but actually is still places in this earth that transportation is still done by donkey or mule.

I tell you what we will adapt, plain and simple, the majority of accidents that are cause by cars will be eliminated.

I am not that old you know, but when I was a child the Doctor used to come to the house.

And we all survived to tell the stories, my grandfather die of 102 and it was not even hospitals nearby when he was a child.

Modern Generations are growing with dependency, but remember before oil, gas,electricity and computers, the world was still going on.
Yes it was, but now there are so many people that many will die if we run out of cheap oil.
Most food nowadays is made with the help of oil. You can't transport sufficient quantities of food without oil.
Everything else is also made and transported with oil, from cars to computer processors to t-shirts.

So if we run out of cheap oil and can't figure out a cheap effective enough alternative, the current economy will most likely collapse, which will lead to many no so nice things happening.

We use so much oil, our streets are literally paved with it...Bitumen
As to the price of petro being any kind of motivating factor, you have to look at it as you would any other addiction I think. For example, When Cigarettes went to 50 cents per pack, my father swore he would quit smoking them, when they went to a dollar, he swore he would quit then, then when they went to damned near 4.00 a pack, he just swore. Assumably we can count on human nature to lead us down a similar road with our petroleum addiction, we will pay whatever the bastards ask for it, because we honestly would feel we couldn't live without it. The really twisted thing is that this is something we have known about for decades, basic 4th grade social studies about nonrenewable resources, but as long as that tv and that microwave keep working, nobody gives a damn about taking care of the developing problems. I hate to say it, but a good serious energy crisis might be the reality check we need to get off our collective arses and take the conch back from the fools who we let have it in the first place. I remember my granparents scoffing at the new remote controls for their television set, when I asked why, they asked me if I knew how much a pack of batteries was. I laughed then, but I think I see their point now.

This is a cycle, it happened in late 70's, then dropped off in the mid 80's as new refineries came online and began producing a surplus. So if history is any indication it may be 2009 at the earliest to see gas prices drop off. American automotive industry will suffer the same things they did in the 70's as fuel becomes more expensive the demand for american gas hogs also drops, however the Toyotas and Hondas and these types of vehicles will see a surge in sales probably peaking in 07-08. I would have thought the mesage to american automotive would have been painfully obvious in the late 70's. produce more fuel efficient vehicles.

i dont think we will run out of oil, just effiecent ways of getting the oil out of the ground is all.

im all for synthetic gas, all i use is synthetic motor oil (its far better than conventional)

The oil companies have been telling us that oil will run out for decades. I suggest we give the countries who actually have plenty of cheap oil a chance to say when they think it will run out instead of believing people that we know have been lying to us about this..Here
are some interviews with the Director of Opec's research division DR Adnan Shihab Eldin.

For instance; BBC Hardtalk's Stephen Sackur and DR Adnan Shihab Eldin.

SS- (INTERUPTS) Well, you know how much oil is in the ground..

Dr SE - Yes, and we don't believe there is a problem for the next 30, 40 years. That's plenty long enough time for countries to look for alternatives.

SS- Is it really? 30 or 40 years. Think back to 1975. That's 30 years ago. We haven't shown any great ability to change the way we rely on fossil fuels in the last 30 years.

Dr SE - That's not 30 or 40 years to run out of oil. That's 30 or 40 years to look at alternatives. Oil will be with us much longer than that. Just like coal has been around for so many centuries. So oil is not expected to run out in 30 or 40 years, I'm just saying that the peak in production will not be reached in 30 or 40 years. That gives us another maybe 30 or 40 years.

Stellar

Just wanted to note that with Katrina, Peak Oil is going to be delayed for a few weeks to a couple months. Not much extra time but it could be all we need. Another Hurricane could hit there this year or the next and it could be even worse. Lots of wildcards in the deck at this point.

All I can add is Ivé just about completed both Air and Solar power for my small house. But I expect only 35-45 % energy relief through it and all the batteries juices -- day to day. And it was not cheap ie 8K Cdn.

But if power fails altogether, well, I have something -- no fridge or stove or heat really -- but light.

Dallas

Dallas, LED lightbulbs are going to be available soon. What you need to do is lower you energy consumption and buy high efficiency appliances(if you havn't already)

Solar Water heating is a cheap solution for hot water.

Originally posted by StellarX
SS- Is it really? 30 or 40 years.

The United States Geological Survey estimates [3] that there are enough petroleum reserves to continue current production rates for 50 to 100 years. A year 2000 USGS study of world-wide oil reserves predicted a possible peak in oil production around the year 2037. That is countered by an important Saudi oil industry insider who says the American government's forecast for future oil supply is a "dangerous over-estimate." Campbell argues that the USGS estimates are methodologically flawed. One problem, for example, is that OPEC countries overestimate their reserves to get higher oil quotas and to avoid internal critique. Population and economic growth may lead to increased energy consumption in the future.

Further, the USGS reserve estimate appears to owe as much to politics as to research. According to the Energy Information Administration of the United States Department of Energy, "estimates are based on non-technical considerations that support domestic supply growth to the levels necessary to meet projected demand levels.
Wikipedia - Peak Oil


I agree, and understand that people in the oil business profit from the Peak Oil scare, which will (and already is) make oil a lot more expensive.
I do believe, however, that the Peak Oil will happen within 10 - 15 years from now, not 30 - 50 years.


[edit on 9-11-2005 by Zion Mainframe]