Thanks for the interest in what I posted guys...Is late in the UK so smallpeeps and the U2U sent I will try and post tomorrow to that...and thanks for
the info and perspective on economic theory..
phoenixhasrisin I agree with you about the price being that high probably sooner, However I learnt some important lessons nearly a decade ago about
gambling soo leave it be now..
if anyone would like to take me up on the offer? thanks though.....
Just to clarify, I studied some of the science behind Oil in Uni and Now working in personal finance...I am not a broker or work in the 'city' but
its all interlinked and as is known whispers travel fast when it affects you and your clients directly....mm soo just to show something which supports
the information going around and that I can post here:
Not the Best Source - But No Smoke Without Fire!
This is not a new stance for the new King. He has been actively restructuring the Saudi economy for some time, looking to diversify Saudi Arabia from
dependence on purely Oil and also in guiding Saudi Arabia to be create stronger alliances with other sympathetic Arab states and diminish US economic
control of the reason. Always remember one thing, there is a marriage of convenience between Saudi and the US. But it is not a happy one, as mentioned
above by another poster there are still bitter rivalries between the countries after the mugging of the Saudi economy by the US to pay for the first
Gulf war. (it is said that when Colin Powell met the Saudi King and showed him satellite photographs of Iraqi tanks on their border and invading
Kuwait, within two hours of that initial meeting full co-operation had been negotiated.... Colin Powell then to wrap up the meeting and finalise
mentioned a cost/deal for the military operations.... the King waved his hand at Colin and as much as said bill us, walking away from him, that a
discussion about money wasn’t right at that time...However the final bill was huge! and well OTT (don’t know if posted on tread linked by previous
post apologies if so), So this recent sting between the relations, to Include the fact that as the Centre of the Islamic world they arnt very happy to
say the least about the massive amounts of money and arms that the US gives Israel, whilst billing them and sucking all there oil and money out in
investments abroad. The new king seems to want to change this situation and is prepared to pay the price, or as I said originally is making a move on
the future of global investments.
Look below to what he was saying in 2002:
Those who would propagate the myth that Saudi Arabia's importance to the U.S. -- or any other trade partner, for that matter -- rests solely on its
ability to supply oil overlook several other aspects of the Kingdom. Saudi Arabia plays a global role in a number of key ways. For one, Saudi Arabia
is the cradle of Islam, the site of its two holiest cities and the focal point of faith for the world's 1.2 billion Muslims. Occupying most of the
Arabian Peninsula, Saudi Arabia is one of the largest countries in the world – almost one-fourth the size of the U.S. and about half the size of
Europe. The Arabian Peninsula has for thousands of years been an important culture and trading centre. Its geographic location has held a great
strategic value for east-west trade and the military. Today, the Saudi market for goods and services is the largest in the Middle East. But Saudi
Arabia is far more than all of this. The kingdom has followed a constructive policy since its establishment more than 70 years ago. It is a policy
based on cooperation, respect, justice and understanding. Now, let me turn for a minute to a subject about which we in the Kingdom are quite excited,
the restructuring of Saudi Arabia's economy. Today, Saudi Arabia is undertaking an ambitious plan to restructure its economy, a massive effort that
will not only bring strong economic growth in the coming years but will also create excellent investment opportunities, including those from the
The northern line will permit Saudi Arabia to exploit phosphate deposits in the north, which are one of the world's largest. The railroad will be
used to transport phosphates to the Arabian Gulf with plants, utilizing the Kingdom's natural gas resources, will produce fertilizer. This project
will help us realize the goal of becoming a major producer and exporter of fertilizers.
(when I say look what he’s saying, well it is a Kingdom any official just is a mouthpiece)
So these factors the current occupation of a country in the region and threatening words to others, may be bringing this Marriage of convenience to
divorce or separation. There’s a potentially richer, in the medium term, partners in town like China and India.
Think we should send Bush and King Abdullah to Jerry Springer to sort it out! and then bush to Reality Rehab for a few weeks too. Seriously though of
course what im trying to display does not take into account the personal Bush and Saudi connections very active when Jnr was still a drunk. Its not
taking into account Al Queadi etc, buts IMHO its the main ingredients in the Cake.
In May 2003, George W. Bush set out his vision of a Middle East Free Trade Agreement (MEFTA). This was an idea born on the politically oriented basis
of “those who trade together stay together” rather than from any US economic standpoint. Bush hopes that the MEFTA — perceived by some critics
as a political tool in the “war on terror” or, alternatively, designed to further US global hegemony — will encompass some 20 regional
countries, including Israel, and be fully consolidated by 2013.In the meantime, the US administration is pushing for bilateral Free Trade Agreements
(FTAs) with various Arab states, including members of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC).This is causing concern throughout the region among those who
are suspicious of the Bush administration’s motives. Why, they ask, is the US so keen to sign up to bilateral agreements when it could more easily
negotiate an FTA with the GCC as a single entity, and “why are such FTAs being offered mainly to smaller countries”?Ahmad Humaid Al-Tayer, a
former UAE minister of communications, recently expressed his own doubts concerning the divisive trend in the Gulf News: “Instead of walking the
path toward becoming a heavyweight economic bloc on the international stage, the GCC may end up with fragmented and small satellite economies without
any leverage against world giants...”
Production you are right is flexible and this has been Saudi's Ace Card in the past 50 years, they have had the ability to raise production and still
can and infact are doing so. However CHINA and INDIA now want the oil. That is the worlds Largest and Second Largest Populations all using more
electricity, plastics (not just to export to the west now), buying cars, etc etc. Also some indications are that Oil may have peaked in Many wells.
Also its not just a tap, it takes more and more engineering and investment to extract the oil, now and therefore time to do these things. Another
thing no one has mentioned... the war in Iraq and Afghanistan are burning up Jet Fuel and diesel at alarming rates, further confounding the situation.
Actually its quite funny in retrospect. The US invades Iraq to secure Oil, and ends up with higher prices and no complete control yet years later to
the Iraqi Oil as the world knows why they went in.
Anyhow becoming a long post, However would like to mention something’s before I sign off. John Bull soo right.
You’ve probably all seen a TV clip of and Oil Well being first tapped, the oil is in the Porous rock under pressure with usually natural gas. They
are both produced from the same organic process. Now depending on whether it is a Salt Plug over the reserve in an fairly open pocket, or if its just
in a section of porous rock under a non permeable one the actual method of forced pumping, or raising the flow of oil from the well above that
produced naturally from the pressure of Gas rising the Oil. Now for example in the North Sea Reserves off the UK they pump seawater down the well,
this Increases pressure and forces the oil out more quickly. However the sea water then creates pressure pretty uniformly around the chamber, forcing
some reserves that were working there way up to the well opening back. In addition this sea water also mixes with the oil making a polluted and
unusable amount of the original Oil left in this solution. It is impractical and very expensive to try and get any remaining Oil from this
solution...just look at what oil slicks do in water! From memory I believe an estimate I sourced years ago stated around 5-9% overall loss of a Field
if this process is overused. Well Saudi Arabia has been using this on all their wells for years.
Infact From next year from a very independent, respected, and Non Biased expert in this field thinks that maybe from nest year the world supply will
be 2-3% less every year, Peak Oil may arrive next year or be here now! And supports much of what I said:
BBC WRITTEN IN JUNE 2005 $40 a barrel then!
The one thing that international bankers don't want to hear is that the second Great Depression may be round the corner. But last week, a group of
ultra-conservative Swiss financiers asked a retired English petroleum geologist living in Ireland to tell them about the beginning of the end of the
oil age. They called Colin Campbell, who helped to found the London-based Oil Depletion Analysis Centre because he is an industry man through and
through, has no financial agenda and has spent most of a lifetime on the front line of oil exploration on three continents. He was chief geologist for
Amoco, a vice-president of Fina, and has worked for BP, Texaco, Shell, ChevronTexaco and Exxon in a dozen different countries. "Don't worry about
oil running out; it won't for very many years," the Oxford PhD told the bankers in a message that he will repeat to businessmen, academics and
investment analysts at a conference in Edinburgh next week. "The issue is the long downward slope that opens on the other side of peak production.
Oil and gas dominate our lives, and their decline will change the world in radical and unpredictable ways," he says. Campbell reckons global peak
production of conventional oil - the kind associated with gushing oil wells - is approaching fast, perhaps even next year. His calculations are based
on historical and present production data, published reserves and discoveries of companies and governments, estimates of reserves lodged with the US
Securities and Exchange Commission, speeches by oil chiefs and a deep knowledge of how the industry works. "About 944bn barrels of oil has so far
been extracted, some 764bn remains extractable in known fields, or reserves, and a further 142bn of reserves are classed as 'yet-to-find', meaning
what oil is expected to be discovered. If this is so, then the overall oil peak arrives next year," he says. If he is correct, then global oil
production can be expected to decline steadily at about 2-3% a year, the cost of everything from travel, heating, agriculture, trade, and anything
made of plastic rises. And the scramble to control oil resources intensifies. As one US analyst said this week: "Just kiss your lifestyle
Soo to surmise more demand then supply, to exponentially extrapolate and compound year on year as China and India grow, and we produce less and less.
The beginning of the manifestation of the new Saudi Model for their Economy, with strained relations behind the smiles. The worlds richest family
believe that investments abroad are bad now, risky. Independent Experts believing Oil has Peaked or is about too. Bad management of Current reserves.
Massive historical lack of investment in alternative energy sources developments and infrastructure... to be honest it looks not too good IMHO.
The real effects of this situation which really has long been coming to a Head has been offset so you may feel comforted by the rise in the dow
recently…but it’s a hall of mirrors and propped up by the recent Housing Market Booms in both the UK and the US everyone has nearly refinanced
their homes to the max, using the funds to keep the economy going by buying new cars etc. This has now peaked in the UK… however next year when the
American real estate Prices peak too after summer/spring, oil is at ?? maybe $100 a barrel…. Everythings more expensive and scarce due to oil price
and lack of. Well do you really believe that the raes will be as low as they have been in the US and the UK? Nope…they wont…in addition lenders
may be forced to call in their loans if there is a Real Big Crash…read the smallprint on your Credit agreements and Mortgages Guys, oh and go for
the lowest fix rate you can.
Anyhow Maybe all good news today about Siberia permafrost melting due to global warming...so the next 10 -20 years could force humanity to change,
adapt and survive in new ways, but for us going through that much overdue and needed change and sacrifice, It wont be easy.
A solar powered Elf!